2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
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The 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on October 14, 2023, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office.[1] This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state that voted for Donald Trump in 2020.
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| Turnout | 36.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Landry: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Wilson: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80%  Landry: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Wilson: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80%  Landry: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Wilson: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Waguespack: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% >90% Schroder: 30–40% 60–70% >90% Lundy: 30–40% 40–50% Cole: 30–40% 60–70% >90% Tie: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Under Louisiana's two-round system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of that person's party affiliation. If no candidate had received an absolute majority of the vote during the primary election on October 14, 2023, a runoff election would have been held on November 18, 2023, between the top two candidates in the primary.[2]
State Attorney General Jeff Landry won with over 51% of the vote in the primary. This was the first time a candidate won a Louisiana gubernatorial election without a runoff since fellow Republican Bobby Jindal was re-elected in 2011. Landry easily prevailed over several Republican opponents, including former state chamber of commerce CEO Stephen Waguespack and State Treasurer John Schroder. Former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson was the leading Democratic candidate.[3] All the Republican candidates collectively won 65.52% of the vote, including a candidate who got 0.34% of the vote as he dropped out of the race but remained on the ballot. All the Democrats collectively won 28.53% of the vote, and all the Independents collectively won 5.95% of the vote. This was the only governorship to flip parties in the 2023 elections.
Background
Louisiana, like much of the Deep South, is a socially conservative "Bible Belt" state. Democrats were the favored party at all levels of government as recently as the 1990s; however, the Republican Party has since rapidly gained ground, first at the federal level and gradually at the state and local level as well. Today, the state is strongly Republican-leaning and, at the time of the election, Republicans held both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, all but one of its U.S. House seats, majorities in both of its state legislative chambers, and every statewide executive office except the governorship.
John Bel Edwards, a populist conservative Democrat, was able to win two terms as governor and overcome the state's partisan lean by diverging from the national party on certain policy matters, such as abortion, while also appealing to Louisiana's contemporary Democratic voting base.[4][5] However, as Edwards was term-limited going into the election, most analysts expected the governorship to flip back to the Republican Party in 2023, primarily due to the lack of Democratic candidates with Edwards' crossover appeal.[6]
Democratic candidates
Declared
- Danny Cole, Pentecostal pastor[7]
- Shawn Wilson, former Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development[8]
Declined
- Katie Bernhardt, chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party[9] (endorsed Wilson)[10]
- Sharon Weston Broome, Mayor of Baton Rouge[11] (endorsed Wilson)[12]
- Gary Chambers, community organizer, runner-up for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district in 2021[13] (endorsed Wilson)[14]
- Hillar Moore, East Baton Rouge Parish District Attorney[15]
- Cedric Richmond, former Director of the Office of Public Engagement, former Senior Advisor to the President, and former U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd congressional district[16][17]
- Jason Williams, Orleans Parish District Attorney[18][19]
Republican candidates
Declared
- Patrick "Dat" Barthel, engineer and Democratic candidate for governor in 2003[20]
- Xavier Ellis, teacher[20]
- Sharon Hewitt, Majority Leader of the Louisiana Senate from the 1st district[21]
- Xan John, businessman and independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022[22]
- Jeff Landry, Louisiana Attorney General[23]
- John Schroder, Louisiana State Treasurer[24]
- Stephen Waguespack, former president and CEO of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry and former chief of staff to then-governor Bobby Jindal[25]
Withdrawn
- Richard Nelson, state representative from the 89th district (endorsed Landry)[26][27]
Declined
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. Senator[28]
- Garret Graves, U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 6th congressional district[29][30] (endorsed Waguespack)[31]
- John Kennedy, U.S. Senator[32][33]
- Billy Nungesser, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana (ran for re-election)[34]
- Clay Schexnayder, Speaker of the Louisiana House of Representatives[35] (ran for Secretary of State)[36]
- Mike Strain, commissioner of the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry[37] (ran for re-election)[38]
- Rick Ward III, former state senator from the 17th district[39][40]
Independent candidates
Declared
- Benjamin Barnes[20]
- Keitron Gagnon[20]
- Jeffery Istre, oilfield worker and U.S. Army veteran[41]
- Hunter Lundy, attorney and Democratic candidate for Louisiana's 7th congressional district in 1996[42]
- Frank Scurlock, retired businessman and Democratic candidate for mayor of New Orleans in 2017[20]
Jungle primary
Summarize
Perspective
Campaign
The Louisiana Republican Party endorsed Attorney General Jeff Landry's campaign on November 7, 2022, a year before the election. The party had had a full-body meeting scheduled for October 29, but it was canceled, and instead the endorsement was voted on in an exclusive meeting held over Zoom.[43] Landry and Eddie Rispone, a member of the Republican State Central Committee who supported him, had pushed the party to make an early endorsement, arguing that the Republicans' best chance of flipping the governorship was to unite around one candidate well in advance of the election. This move was heavily criticized by other Republicans who had expressed interest in running for governor. Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser said the party's endorsement process "looks more like communist China than the Louisiana we know and love," State Treasurer John Schroder claimed it was driven by "money and inside party politics," and Louisiana Senate Majority Leader Sharon Hewitt proclaimed "the citizens of Louisiana do not need backroom deals and political insiders telling them who should be our next governor." Michael DiResto, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, believed "the idea that a small cabal would preempt the democratic process literally under the cover of darkness and in a smoke-filled Zoom goes against the foundational values of our party."[44][45] In response, Louisiana Republican Party chair Louis Gurvich said "others who are crying over this endorsement are just upset because they didn't have the support within our party to win the endorsement for themselves."[46]
Endorsements
Jeff Landry (R)
Federal officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[47]
U.S. senators
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. Senator from Louisiana (2015–present)[48]
U.S. representatives
- Ralph Abraham, LA-5 (2015–2021) and candidate for governor in 2019[45]
- Clay Higgins, LA-3 (2017–present)[49]
- Mike Johnson, LA-4 (2017–present)[50]
- Steve Scalise, House Majority Leader (2023–present) from LA-1 (2008–present)[51]
State legislators
- Richard Nelson, state representative from the 89th district (2020–present)[52]
Individuals
- Joseph C. Canizaro, commercial real estate developer[53]
- Eddie Rispone, member of the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee and runner-up for governor in 2019[44]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump[54]
Organizations
- Club for Growth[55]
- Gun Owners of America[56]
- Louisiana Sheriffs' Association[53]
- National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund[57]
- Oil & Gas Workers Association[53]
Political parties
Shawn Wilson (D)
Federal officials
U.S. senators
- Mary Landrieu, U.S. Senator from Louisiana (1997–2015)[53]
U.S. representatives
- Troy Carter, LA-2 (2021–present)[14]
- Cleo Fields, LA-4 (1993–1997), candidate for governor in 1995, state senator from the 14th district (2020–present)[58]
Statewide officials
- John Bel Edwards, Governor of Louisiana (2016–present)[59]
- Davante Lewis, Louisiana Public Service Commissioner from the 3rd district (2022–present)[12]
State legislators
- Gerald Boudreaux, state senator from the 24th district (2016–present)[58]
- Jay Luneau, state senator from the 29th district (2016–present)[60]
- Vincent Pierre, state representative from the 44th district (2012–present)
Local officials
- Sharon Weston Broome, Mayor-President of Baton Rouge (2017–present)[12]
- Helena Moreno, vice president of the New Orleans City Council (2023–present) from the at-large district (2018–present)[61]
Organizations
Individuals
- Katie Bernhardt, chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party (2020–present)[10]
- Gary Chambers, community organizer[14]
Political parties
Newspapers and other media
Stephen Waguespack (R)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[64] | Lean R (flip) | July 21, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[65] | Likely R (flip) | September 1, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] | Likely R (flip) | July 13, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[67] | Safe R (flip) | July 12, 2023 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Hewitt (R) |
Istre (I) |
Landry (R) |
Lundy (I) |
Nelson (R) |
Schroder (R) |
Waguespack (R) |
Wilson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[68][A] | September 12–15, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 0% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 9% | 24% | 2%[b] | 15% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[69][B] | September 11–15, 2023 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 4.1% | – | 37.7% | 6.3% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 22.6% | – | 14.9% |
| Faucheux Strategies[70][C] | August 14–19, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 3% | – | 36% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 26% | 2% | 14% |
| Emerson College[71] | August 13–14, 2023 | 982 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 5% | – | 40% | – | – | – | 5% | 22% | 10[c] | 18% |
| BDPC[72][D] | July 6–10, 2023 | 600 (V) | ± 4.0% | 4% | – | 30% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 28% | – | 23% |
| Kaplan Strategies[73] | June 30 – July 2, 2023 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 5% | – | 30% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 22% | – | 24% |
| Remington Research (R)[74][E] | June 22–25, 2023 | 896 (LV) | ? | 3% | – | 25% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 16% | 27% | – | 18% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[75][F] | June 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 2% | <1% | 35% | 4% | <1% | 3% | 6% | 27% | 2% | 18% |
| The Kitchens Group (D)[76][G] | June 12–15, 2023 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | ≥6% | – | 31% | 4% | – | ≥6% | ≥6% | 21% | 7%[d] | 25% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[75][F] | April 30 – May 2, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 2% | 1% | 32% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 18% | 4% | 32% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[77][F] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | – | 36% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 18% | 1%[e] | 29% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[78][H] | Before April 18, 2023 | ? | ? | – | – | 35% | – | – | – | – | 25% | 17%[f] | 23% |
| JMC Analytics[79][I] | March 6–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | – | 28% | 3% | – | 3% | – | 29% | – | 22% |
| BDPC[80][J] | December 7–13, 2022 | 630 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 3% | – | 22% | 2% | – | 2% | – | 23% | 23%[g] | 24% |
| Torchlight Strategies[81][K] | December 6–9, 2022 | 861 (LV) | ± 3.3% | – | – | 14% | – | – | – | – | 22% | 42%[h] | 20% |
| Torchlight Strategies[82][K] | November 9–12, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | <1% | – | 13% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 18% | 40%[i] | 26% |
| JMC Analytics (R)[83] | March 21–23, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | – | 11% | – | – | 1% | – | – | 46%[j] | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Sharon Hewitt (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[68][A] | September 12–15, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Hunter Lundy (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[68][A] | September 12–15, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 30% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Landry (R) |
John Schroder (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[68][A] | September 12–15, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Stephen Waguespack (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[68][A] | September 12–15, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Shawn Wilson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[68][A] | September 12–15, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Faucheux Strategies[70][C] | August 14–19, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
| BDPC[72][D] | July 6–10, 2023 | 600 (V) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
Jeff Landry vs. Sharon Hewitt
Jeff Landry vs. Hunter Lundy
Jeff Landry vs. John Schroder
Jeff Landry vs. Stephen Waguespack
Jeff Landry vs. Shawn Wilson
John Kennedy vs. Jeff Landry
John Kennedy vs. Shawn Wilson
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Results
25–30%
30–35%
35–40%
40–45%
45–50%
50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Landry | 547,827 | 51.56% | ||
| Democratic | Shawn Wilson | 275,525 | 25.93% | ||
| Republican | Stephen Waguespack | 62,287 | 5.86% | ||
| Republican | John Schroder | 56,654 | 5.33% | ||
| Independent | Hunter Lundy | 52,165 | 4.91% | ||
| Democratic | Danny Cole | 27,662 | 2.60% | ||
| Republican | Sharon Hewitt | 18,468 | 1.74% | ||
| Independent | Benjamin Barnes | 5,190 | 0.49% | ||
| Republican | Dat Barthel | 4,426 | 0.42% | ||
| Republican | Richard Nelson (withdrawn) | 3,605 | 0.34% | ||
| Independent | Jeffery Istre | 3,400 | 0.32% | ||
| Republican | Xavier Ellis | 1,734 | 0.16% | ||
| Independent | Keitron Gagnon | 1,260 | 0.12% | ||
| Republican | Xan John | 1,164 | 0.11% | ||
| Independent | Frank Scurlock | 1,131 | 0.11% | ||
| Total votes | 1,062,498 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
By congressional district
Landry won five of six congressional districts.[85]
| District | Wilson | Landry | Waguespack | Schroder | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 16% | 49% | 8% | 16% | Steve Scalise |
| 2nd | 60% | 21% | 4% | 4% | Troy Carter |
| 3rd | 18% | 64% | 4% | 1% | Clay Higgins |
| 4th | 23% | 61% | 3% | 1% | Mike Johnson |
| 5th | 21% | 60% | 4% | 4% | Julia Letlow |
| 6th | 23% | 50% | 12% | 5% | Garret Graves |
Aftermath
In his victory speech, Governor-elect Landry stated that the "election says that our state is united", adding, "it's a wake up call and it's a message that everyone should hear loud and clear, that we the people in this state are going to expect more out of our government from here on out".[86]
See also
Notes
Summarize
Perspective
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Gray Television
- Poll commissioned by WWL-TV, WBRZ-TV, KTBS-TV, KATC-TV, The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate, Urban League of Louisiana and Public Affairs Research Council
- Poll sponsored by Reboot Louisiana, a super PAC supporting Waguespack
- Poll sponsored by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Landry
- Poll conducted for Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser
References
External links
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