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The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.[1]
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Murkowski: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tshibaka: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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After the passage of Ballot Measure 2 in 2020, this was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022, and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters utilized ranked-choice voting.[2][3]
Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, Frank Murkowski, who served as a U.S. senator from Alaska from 1981 until he was elected governor of Alaska. Murkowski had won three Senate elections since then, including a notable write-in campaign in the 2010 election, although she had never won an election with an outright majority of the vote.[4][5][6]
Murkowski had been a vocal critic of Donald Trump during his presidency and opposed several of his initiatives. Trump first stated in June 2020 that he planned to support a Republican challenger to Murkowski in 2022.[7] Murkowski was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021, and was the only one up for re-election in 2022. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle. Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, was endorsed by Trump and the Alaska Republican Party.[8][9][10] Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski.[11]
In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka but remained on the ballot.[12] Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes, but because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, the instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters.[13] Since Murkowski won her three previous elections to the U.S. Senate (2004, 2010, and 2016) without a majority of the vote, this election became the fourth election in which she did not receive a majority of the vote in the first round (the other three elections did not employ ranked choice voting with multiple rounds). Murkowski thus holds the record for the most number of elections won by a U.S. senator without winning a majority of the votes.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 85,794 | 45.05% | |
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 73,414 | 38.55% | |
| Democratic | Patricia Chesbro | 12,989 | 6.82% | |
| Republican | Buzz Kelley | 4,055 | 2.13% | |
| Republican | Pat Nolin | 2,004 | 1.05% | |
| Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 1,981 | 1.04% | |
| Democratic | Ivan R. Taylor | 1,897 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Sam Merrill | 1,529 | 0.80% | |
| Libertarian | Sean Thorne | 1,399 | 0.73% | |
| Independent | Shoshana Gungurstein | 853 | 0.45% | |
| Independence | Joe Stephens | 805 | 0.42% | |
| Republican | John Schiess | 734 | 0.39% | |
| Independence | Dustin Darden | 649 | 0.34% | |
| Republican | Kendall L. Shorkey | 627 | 0.33% | |
| Republican | Karl Speights | 613 | 0.32% | |
| Independent | Jeremy Keller | 405 | 0.21% | |
| Independent | Sid Hill | 274 | 0.14% | |
| Independent | Huhnkie Lee | 238 | 0.12% | |
| Independent | Dave Darden | 198 | 0.10% | |
| Total votes | 190,458 | 100.0% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[37] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[38] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[40] | Solid R | September 5, 2022 |
| RCP[41] | Safe R | September 15, 2022 |
| Fox News[42] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[43] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight[44] | Solid R | October 24, 2022 |
| The Economist[45] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
| No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Lisa Murkowski | Kelly Tshibaka | Patricia Chesbro | Buzz Kelley | ||||
| 1 | September 1, 2022 | Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News |
[46] | P | P | P | A |
| 2 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | [47] | P | P | P | W |
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Pat Chesbro (D) |
Buzz Kelley (R) |
Undecided / Not Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[90] | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | —[c] | — | ||||
| 3 | 56% | 44% | –[d] | — | |||||
| Alaska Survey Research[91] | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | —[c] | — | ||||
| 3 | 57% | 43% | –[d] | — | |||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[92][A] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [e] | N/A[f] | 35% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 7% U |
| 1 | 38% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 7% NR | ||||
| 2 | 38% | 47% | 14% | –[g] | 8% NR | ||||
| 3 | 50% | 50% | –[h] | 10% NR |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Pat Chesbro (D) |
Dustin Darden (AIP) |
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) |
Al Gross (D/I) |
John Howe (AIP) |
Joe Miller (L) |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[93] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 17% | 5% | – | 35% | – | 43% | – | ||||
| 2 | 20% | – | 36% | 45% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 52% | 48% | ||||||||||||
| Cygnal (R)[94][B] | March 14–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 1 | – | 29% | – | 45% | 26% | – | |||||
| ? | 49% | – | 51% | – | |||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[95] | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | ||||
| 2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[96] | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | |||
| 2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||||
| Change Research (D)[97][C] | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1%[i] | 12% | ||
| 3[j] | 46% | – | – | 54% | – | ||||||||||
Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 113,495 | 43.37% | +623 | 114,118 | 43.39% | +1,641 | 115,759 | 44.49% | +20,571 | 136,330 | 53.70% | ||
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 111,480 | 42.60% | +621 | 112,101 | 42.62% | +3,209 | 115,310 | 44.32% | +2,224 | 117,534 | 46.30% | ||
| Democratic | Pat Chesbro | 27,145 | 10.37% | +1,088 | 28,233 | 10.73% | +901 | 29,134 | 11.20% | −29,134 | Eliminated | |||
| Republican | Buzz Kelley (withdrew)[a] | 7,557 | 2.89% | +1,018 | 8,575 | 3.26% | −8,575 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Write-in | 2,028 | 0.77% | -2,028 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Total votes | 261,705 | 263,027 | 260,203 | 253,864 | ||||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 3,770 | +2,824 | 6,594 | +6,339 | 12,933 | |||||||||
| Republican hold | ||||||||||||||
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