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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the New Mexico gubernatorial election and various state and local elections. The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2018 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.
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All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In New Mexico, legislative and congressional maps must be passed by the state legislature and are subject to a veto by the governor, which would require a two-thirds supermajority in each house of the legislature to override. In April 2021, governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill passed by the legislature that established the seven-member New Mexico Citizen Redistricting Committee. The job of the committee is to draw three sets of legislative and congressional maps, which it then sends to the legislature for consideration. Current public officials and government employees are barred from serving on the committee. The committee's role is purely advisory and the legislature is free to alter or discard its proposals.[1]
On October 15, 2021, the redistricting committee voted to send 3 congressional maps to the legislature. The first would largely maintain the boundaries of the state's existing map. The second would increase Native American representation in the 3rd congressional district to nearly 20% and Hispanic representation in the 2nd district to 54%. This proposal was championed by the committee's chairman Edward Chávez, former Chief Justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court. The third, drawn by the Center for Civic Policy, would add liberal areas of the city of Albuquerque to the rural 2nd district.[2]
In the leadup to the 2020 redistricting cycle, some suspected that the Democratic-controlled state legislature might alter the boundaries of the 2nd congressional district to make it more favorable to the Democratic Party. The 2nd district was represented by Democrat Xochitl Torres Small after she defeated Republican Yvette Herrell in the 2018 midterm elections, but she lost to Herrell in a 2020 rematch. The day after Herrell's victory, Democrat Brian Egolf, the Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, pointed out that the 2nd district would inevitably be changed during redistricting and said "we'll have to see what that means for Republican chances to hold it." This statement was criticized by Steve Pearce, the chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, who called it "political tricks."[3]
The district is mostly rural and dominated by the oil and natural gas industry. Carlsbad mayor Dale Janway expressed concern that portions of the Albuquerque suburbs might be added to the district, which would dilute the influence of the rural communities in the district, including Carlsbad.[4] After the 2020 elections, the district held a Partisan Voting Index of R+8.[5]
On December 10, the New Mexico Senate voted 25–15 to approve a congressional map drawn by Democratic state senator Joseph Cervantes. This proposal largely resembles the third map submitted by the commission, adding portions of western and southern Albuquerque to the 2nd district and moving a portion of the conservative-leaning, oil-producing area of the 2nd district into the 3rd district. These changes would increase the Hispanic majority in the 2nd district from 51% to 56% and decrease the percentage of Native Americans in the 3rd district from 20% to 16%. Republicans widely opposed the map, with GOP state senator David Gallegos pointing out that the map combines the conservative oilfield town of Hobbs with heavily Democratic Santa Fe, which is hundreds of miles away, and GOP senator Cliff Pirtle claiming that the map represented an attempt by Democrats to control all 3 of New Mexico's House seats. Cervantes defended his map, saying he wished to "reimagine a New Mexico where our districts include rural and urban areas."[6][7][8][9] The New Mexico House of Representatives passed the map on December 12 in a 44–24 vote, and governor Lujan Grisham approved it on December 17.[10][11]
Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report interpreted the new map as an attempt by Democrats to target Herrell while still protecting the representative of the 3rd district, Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez. Under the new map, in the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden would have won the 1st district by 14.5%, the 2nd by under 6%, and the 3rd by roughly 11%.[12] Under the previous map, Biden won the first district by 22.8% and the 3rd district by 17.6%, and lost the 2nd district to Republican Donald Trump by 11.8%.[13]
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 County results Stansbury: 50–60% 60–70% Garcia Holmes: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Stansbury: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Garcia Holmes: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district covers the center of the state, taking in the counties of Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca, and Lincoln, as well as eastern Bernalillo County and most of Albuquerque.[14] Democrat Deb Haaland, who was re-elected with 58.2% of the vote in 2020,[15] resigned on March 16, 2021, after she was confirmed to become the U.S. Secretary of the Interior.[16] Democrat Melanie Stansbury won the June 1, 2021 special election to finish her term with 60.4% of the vote.[17]
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) | 44,223 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 44,223 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 25,822 | 58.7 | |
| Republican | Louie Sanchez | 18,171 | 41.3 | |
| Total votes | 43,993 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Solid D | April 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Solid D | April 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
| Politico[33] | Likely D | April 18, 2022 |
| RCP[34] | Lean D | October 30, 2022 |
| Fox News[35] | Likely D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ[36] | Likely D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[37] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[38] | Likely D | September 28, 2022 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) | 156,462 | 55.8 | |
| Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 124,151 | 44.2 | |
| Independent | Victoria Gonzales (write-in) | 58 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 280,671 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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  Herrell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% ≥90% Vasquez: 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% 80-90% ≥90% Tie 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district encapsulates southern and western New Mexico, including the cities of Las Cruces, Carlsbad, and Alamogordo, as well as the southwestern suburbs of Albuquerque.[14] The incumbent was Republican Yvette Herrell, who had flipped back the district from Xochitl Torres Small (who had in turn narrowly defeated her for the seat in a race to replace a Republican incumbent in 2018) with 53.7% of the vote in 2020.[15] The new 2022-2032 lines for the district made it more competitive for Democrats, with Vasquez defeating Herrell in a narrow race that was too close to call until the next afternoon.[42]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yvette Herrell (incumbent) | 28,623 | 100.00 | |
| Total votes | 28,623 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabe Vasquez | 24,010 | 76.1 | |
| Democratic | Darshan Patel | 7,534 | 23.9 | |
| Total votes | 31,544 | 100.0 | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Yvette Herrell | Gabe Vasquez | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 21, 2022 | KOB (TV) | Matt Grubs Tessa Mentus |
[47] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Tossup | April 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Tossup | April 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Lean R | October 26, 2022 |
| Politico[33] | Tossup | April 18, 2022 |
| RCP[34] | Lean R | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News[35] | Tossup | August 22, 2022 |
| DDHQ[36] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
| 538[37] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
| The Economist[38] | Tossup | September 28, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Yvette Herrell (R) |
Gabe Vasquez (D) |
Undecided [d] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[62] | July 19 – October 28, 2022 | October 31, 2022 | 49.4% | 45.3% | 5.3% | Herrell +4.1 |
Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Yvette Herrell (R) |
Gabe Vasquez (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[39] | October 25–28, 2022 | 302 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 54% | 41% | 1%[e] | 4% |
| 54% | 44% | 2%[f] | – | ||||
| Research & Polling Inc.[40] | October 20–27, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 47% | – | 8% |
| Siena College/New York Times[63] | October 20–24, 2022 | 398 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[64][A] | September 20–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[65][A] | July 19–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% |
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabe Vasquez | 96,986 | 50.3 | |
| Republican | Yvette Herrell (incumbent) | 95,636 | 49.6 | |
| Democratic | Eliseo Luna (write-in) | 51 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 192,673 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | ||||
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 County results Leger Fernandez: 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Martinez Johnson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
 Precinct results Leger Fernandez: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Martinez Johnson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd district covers the northern and eastern parts of the state, taking in the cities of Santa Fe, Roswell, Farmington, and Clovis, as well as parts of the Navajo Nation.[14] The incumbent was Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, who was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2020.[15]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) | 46,940 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 46,940 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Alexis Martinez Johnson | 28,729 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 28,729 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Solid D | August 25, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
| Politico[33] | Lean D | April 18, 2022 |
| RCP[34] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[35] | Likely D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ[36] | Likely D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[37] | Solid D | September 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[38] | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) | 134,217 | 58.2 | |
| Republican | Alexis Martinez Johnson | 96,565 | 41.8 | |
| Total votes | 230,782 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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