2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout	72%
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 14 0 Popular vote 2,608,400 1,883,313 Percentage 57.34% 41.40%
County Results Congressional District Results Municipality Results Precinct Results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.49% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.^[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.^[4][5]

Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election.^[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.^[13] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.^[14] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.^[15] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county were available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.^[16]

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.^[17] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.^[18]

2020 New Jersey Republican primary

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)	457,212	100	49
Total	457,212	100.00	49

Democratic primary

2020 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary^[19]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[20]
Joe Biden	814,188	84.92	121
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	140,412	14.65	5
Uncommitted	4,162	0.43
Total	958,762	100%	126

This section is an excerpt from 2020 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary § NJresults.[edit]

Green primary

This section is transcluded from Results of the 2020 Green Party presidential primaries. (edit | history)

New Jersey Green Party presidential primary, May 2, 2020^{[21][better source needed]}

Candidate	Votes	Percentage[a]	National delegates
Howie Hawkins	44	78.6%	5
Dario Hunter	4	7.1%	0
Jesse Ventura	3	5.4%	0
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry	2	3.6%	0
Bernie Sanders	2	3.6%	0
Kent Mesplay	1	1.8%	0
Susan Buchser-Lochocki	0	0%	0
Dennis Lambert	0	0%	0
Chad Wilson	0	0%	0
David Rolde	0	0%	0
Total	56	100.00%	5

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[22]	Solid D	October 28, 2020
Inside Elections[23]	Safe D	October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24]	Safe D	October 8, 2020
Politico[25]	Safe D	September 8, 2020
RCP[26]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[27]	Safe D	July 26, 2020
CNN[28]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist[29]	Safe D	September 2, 2020
CBS News[30]	Likely D	September 27, 2020
270towin[31]	Safe D	August 2, 2020
ABC News[32]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR[33]	Likely D	October 30, 2020
NBC News[34]	Likely D	August 6, 2020
538[35]	Solid D	September 27, 2020
Fox News[36]	Likely D	November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [b]	Margin
270 to Win[37]	October 9 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	56.5%	37.3%	6.2%	Biden +19.2
Real Clear Politics[38]	September 4 – October 13, 2020	November 3, 2020	54.7%	37.3%	8.0%	Biden +17.4
FiveThirtyEight[39]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	58.4%	37.9%	3.7%	Biden +20.4
Average			56.5%	37.5%	7.8%	Biden +19.0

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	3,870 (LV)	± 2%	38%[d]	59%	-	-	–	–
Research Co.[41]	Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	40%	59%	-	-	1%[e]	5%
Swayable[42]	Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020	324 (LV)	± 7.2%	40%	59%	1%	0%	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40]	Oct 1–28, 2020	6,472 (LV)	–	37%	60%	-	-	–	–
Swayable[43]	Oct 23–26, 2020	386 (LV)	± 6.5%	38%	62%	0%	0%	–	–
Rutgers-Eagleton[44]	Oct 19–24, 2020	834 (LV)	± 4%	37%	59%	-	-	1%[f]	1%
Stockton College[45]	Oct 7–13, 2020	721 (LV)	± 3.7%	36%	56%	-	-	–	–
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[46]	Oct 5–13, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	34%	56%	-	-	10%[g]	–
Fairleigh Dickinson University[47]	Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020	582 (LV)	± 4.6%	38%	53%	-	-	5%[h]	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40]	Sep 1–30, 2020	2,952 (LV)	–	37%	60%	-	-	–	3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[48]	Sep 8–16, 2020	501 (LV)	± 4.4%	38%	52%	-	-	10%[g]	–
Emerson College[49]	Sep 4–7, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	40%[i]	58%	-	-	2%[j]	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40]	Aug 1–31, 2020	2,309 (LV)	–	40%	57%	-	-	–	3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[50]	Aug 5–13, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.383%	33%	52%	-	-	15%[k]	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40]	Jul 1–31, 2020	2,426 (LV)	–	37%	61%	-	-	–	2%
Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[51]	Jul 7–12, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.383%	33%	51%	-	-	7%[l]	8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[40]	Jun 8–30, 2020	1,110 (LV)	–	37%	61%	-	-	–	3%
Quinnipiac[52]	Apr 30 – May 4, 2020	941 (RV)	± 3.2%	35%	54%	-	-	3%[m]	8%
Rutgers-Eagleton[53]	Apr 22 – May 2, 2020	689 (RV)	± 4.2%	33%	56%	-	-	5%[n]	7%
Monmouth University[54]	Apr 16–19, 2020	635 (RV)	± 3.9%	38%	54%	-	-	2%	6%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[55]	Feb 12–16, 2020	715 (RV)	–	35%	53%	-	-	–	–

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Fairleigh Dickinson University[55] Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 53% – – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Fairleigh Dickinson University[55] Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 50% – – Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Fairleigh Dickinson University[55] Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 32% 56% – – Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided Fairleigh Dickinson University[55] Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 48% – – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided Fairleigh Dickinson University[55] Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) – 36% 47% – –

Results

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Biden
-Red municipalities won by Trump

Swing from 2016 to 2020 by each municipality, darker colors indicate a higher swing from 2016:
-Blue municipalities swung towards Biden
-Red municipalities swung towards Trump

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey^[56]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joseph R. Biden Jr. Kamala D. Harris	2,608,400	57.34%	+1.88%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	1,883,313	41.40%	+0.05%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	31,677	0.70%	−1.17%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	14,202	0.31%	−0.67%
	Unity	Bill Hammons Eric Bodenstab	3,255	0.07%	±0.00%
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	2,954	0.06%	−0.10%
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	2,928	0.06%	+0.02%
	Alliance	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	2,728	0.06%	+0.01%
Total votes			4,549,353	100.00%

By county

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Atlantic	73,808	52.71%	64,438	46.02%	1,785	1.27%	9,370	6.69%	140,031
Bergen	285,967	57.44%	204,417	41.06%	7,454	1.50%	81,550	16.38%	497,838
Burlington	154,595	58.86%	103,345	39.35%	4,710	1.79%	51,250	19.51%	262,650
Camden	175,065	65.91%	86,207	32.46%	4,327	1.63%	88,858	33.45%	265,599
Cape May	23,941	41.33%	33,158	57.24%	834	1.43%	-9,217	-15.91%	57,933
Cumberland	32,742	52.32%	28,952	46.27%	881	1.41%	3,790	6.05%	62,575
Essex	266,820	77.07%	75,475	21.80%	3,892	1.13%	191,345	55.27%	346,187
Gloucester	86,702	49.99%	83,340	48.05%	3,411	1.96%	3,362	1.94%	173,453
Hudson	181,452	72.45%	65,698	26.23%	3,308	1.32%	115,754	46.22%	250,458
Hunterdon	39,457	46.60%	43,153	50.96%	2,063	2.44%	-3,696	-4.36%	84,673
Mercer	122,532	69.14%	51,641	29.14%	3,050	1.72%	70,891	40.00%	177,223
Middlesex	226,250	60.22%	143,467	38.19%	5,975	1.59%	82,783	22.03%	375,692
Monmouth	181,291	47.91%	191,808	50.69%	5,291	1.40%	-10,517	-2.78%	378,390
Morris	153,881	51.14%	141,134	46.90%	5,902	1.96%	12,747	4.24%	300,917
Ocean	119,456	34.85%	217,740	63.53%	5,550	1.62%	-98,274	-28.68%	342,746
Passaic	129,097	57.55%	92,009	41.02%	3,224	1.43%	37,088	16.53%	224,330
Salem	14,479	42.53%	18,827	55.31%	736	2.16%	-4,348	-12.78%	34,042
Somerset	111,173	59.49%	71,996	38.52%	3,722	1.99%	39,177	20.97%	186,891
Sussex	34,481	39.03%	51,701	58.52%	2,173	2.45%	-17,220	-19.49%	88,355
Union	170,310	67.01%	80,038	31.49%	3,794	1.50%	90,272	35.52%	254,142
Warren	24,901	40.78%	34,769	56.95%	1,387	2.27%	-9,868	-16.17%	61,057
Totals	2,608,400	57.14%	1,883,313	41.25%	73,469	1.61%	725,087	15.89%	4,565,182

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
• Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)

By congressional district

Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won 3, including one that elected a Democrat.^[57]

District	Biden	Trump	Representative
1st	62.1%	36.6%	Donald Norcross
2nd	47.9%	50.8%	Jeff Van Drew
3rd	49.2%	49.4%	Andy Kim
4th	44.1%	54.6%	Chris Smith
5th	51.9%	46.7%	Josh Gottheimer
6th	57.2%	41.5%	Frank Pallone Jr.
7th	54.2%	44.3%	Tom Malinowski
8th	71.8%	27.2%	Albio Sires
9th	62.2%	36.8%	Bill Pascrell
10th	84.2%	15.0%	Donald Payne Jr.
11th	52.7%	46.0%	Mikie Sherrill
12th	67.3%	31.4%	Bonnie Watson Coleman

^[58]

Analysis

As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.

Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which has not voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.^[59]

Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.^[59] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.^[60] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.

Voter demographics

2020 presidential election in New Jersey voter demographics^[61]

Demographic subgroup	Biden	Trump	% of total vote
Total vote	57	41	100
Ideology
Liberals	92	7	34
Moderates	63	35	35
Conservatives	11	88	31
Party (including leaners)
Democrat or lean democrat	95	4	53
Republican or lean republican	10	89	42
Independent	55	41	5
Gender
Men	49	49	47
Women	64	35	53
Marital status
Married	54	44	61
Never married	68	30	23
Gender by marital status
Married men	47	49	29
Married women	58	41	31
Unmarried men	-	-	15
Unmarried women	68	31	25
Race/ethnicity
White	50	49	71
Black	86	12	11
Latino	72	27	11
Asian	76	23	3
Other	-	-	3
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men	42	56	33
White women	56	44	38
Black men	-	-	4
Black women	-	-	7
Latino men	-	-	6
Latina women	-	-	6
Other	66	32	7
Religion
Protestant/Other Christian	56	42	28
Catholic	47	52	39
Jewish	70	30	8
Other religion	67	32	7
None	73	25	17
White evangelical or born-again Christian
Yes	-	-	9
No	59	40	91
Age
18–24 years old	59	40	6
25–29 years old	66	32	4
30–39 years old	66	33	15
40–49 years old	57	41	14
50–64 years old	54	44	32
65 and older	54	46	28
Age by race
White 18–29 years old	57	42	7
White 30–44 years old	53	46	14
White 45–64 years old	47	52	28
White 65 and older	47	52	22
Nonwhite 18–29 years old	69	29	4
Nonwhite 30–44 years old	79	19	8
Nonwhite 45–64 years old	75	24	11
Nonwhite 65 and older	-	-	6
Sexual orientation
LGBT	-	-	6
Non-LGBT	57	42	94
Education
High school or less	54	44	25
Some college education or Associate degree	51	47	27
College graduate	63	36	30
Postgraduate degree	60	39	18
Education by race
White college graduates	57	42	35
White no college degree	42	56	35
Black college graduates	-	-	4
Black no college degree	-	-	7
Latino college graduates	-	-	4
Latino no college degree	69	29	7
All others	66	32	7
Education by race/gender
White women with college degrees	65	34	17
White women without college degrees	47	52	20
White men with college degrees	49	50	18
White men without college degrees	35	63	15
Nonwhite women with college degrees	84	15	7
Nonwhite women without college degrees	83	15	9
Nonwhite men with college degrees	68	30	6
Nonwhite men without college degrees	66	32	8
Income
Under $50,000	63	36	26
$50,000–99,999	55	44	37
$100,000 or more	55	43	37
Military service
Veterans	-	-	9
Veteran in household	-	-	14
Non-veterans	63	37	77
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality	80	20	9
COVID-19 pandemic	75	24	43
Economy	20	78	26
Crime and safety	-	-	4
Health care	79	19	10
Climate change	91	9	3
Area type
Urban	67	31	15
Suburban	59	40	62
Small town	48	51	15
Rural	44	56	8
Family's financial situation today
Getting ahead	-	-	13
Falling behind	66	34	17
Holding steady	57	43	70
Abortion should be
Legal in all/most cases	70	29	71
Illegal in all/most cases	25	72	28
Climate change is a serious problem
Yes	77	22	75
No	11	89	25

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Jersey
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 New Jersey elections
• Bilingual elections requirement for New Jersey (per Voting Rights Act Amendments of 2006)^[62]
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. This primary was conducted under a system in which each person could cast a vote for more than one candidate, therefore percentages reflect the percentage of voters that approved of each candidate, and as a result do not add up to 100%.
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
5. "Someone else" with 1%
6. "Neither" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
7. "Another candidate or unsure" with 10%
8. "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
9. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
10. "Someone else" with 2%
11. "Another candidate or unsure" with 15%
12. "For another candidate" with 7%
13. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
14. "Neither" with 4%; "someone else" with 1%

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Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, New Jersey

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "New Jersey", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "New Jersey: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of New Jersey". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• New Jersey at Ballotpedia