2018 United States Senate election in Utah
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries took place on June 26.[1]
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| Turnout | 74.15% | ||||||||||||||||
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   Romney: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Wilson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican senator Orrin Hatch announced in January 2018 that he would retire and not seek reelection to an eighth term, making this the first open seat U.S. Senate election in Utah since 1992 and the first in this seat since 1905. The general election was won by Mitt Romney, who had been the Republican nominee for president in 2012 and previously was the 70th governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. Romney became only the third person in American history to be elected governor and U.S. senator in different states, and the first former major party presidential nominee to run for a new office since Walter Mondale in 2002.[2]
Background
Summarize
Perspective
Process
Utah's 2018 U.S. Senate candidates had dual routes toward placement on the primary election ballot: (1) eligibility via win or second-place showings at a convention of delegates selected from party local caucuses; and/or (2) eligibility via obtaining sufficient petition signatures.
Taking the traditional route, the top two candidates for the U.S. Senate at any of the party state conventions (to be held in the latter part of April, 2018) would be placed on the June 26 primary election ballot. Also, any candidate who collected 28,000 ballot-access petition signatures would be placed on the primary ballot.
If no competitor achieved the above-mentioned alternate access to the primary ballot through collected signatures and a convention winner achieved sixty-percent of delegate votes, this candidate straightaway received his or her party's nomination solely via the older-style caucuses-convention system. Otherwise, a candidate would be nominated through receiving a plurality of votes in the primary election and thereby advance to the November general election.
Incumbent Orrin Hatch did not seek reelection.[3]
Hatch to retire
Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch was reelected to a seventh term in 2012. During his 2012 reelection campaign, he had pledged that if he were elected, it would be his last term.[4] Hatch won his first election in 1976 in part by criticizing the incumbent's 18-year tenure. Hatch initially announced a re-election campaign on March 9, 2017,[5][6][7][8] though he also said at that time that he might withdraw from the race if Mitt Romney decided to run.[9] An August 19–21, 2016 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found only 19% of voters wanted Hatch to run in 2018, while 71% wanted him to retire.[10] On October 27, 2017, Hatch reportedly told friends privately that he was going to retire in 2019[11] and on January 2, 2018, made a public announcement of his plans to retire at the end of his current term in January 2019.[3]
Republican primary
Summarize
Perspective
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Convention
Candidates
Nominee
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012,[12] and Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts in 1994
Eliminated in the primary election
- Mike Kennedy, state representative[13]
Eliminated at convention
Declined
- Rob Bishop, U.S. representative[18]
- Jason Chaffetz, former U.S. representative[19]
- John Curtis, U.S. representative
- Orrin Hatch, incumbent U.S. senator and president pro tempore of the United States Senate[8]
- Mia Love, U.S. representative (endorsed Mitt Romney)[20][21]
- Boyd Matheson, former Chief of Staff for Senator Mike Lee[22]
- Evan McMullin, former congressional staffer, former CIA agent and independent candidate for president of the United States in 2016 (endorsed Mitt Romney)[20][23]
Endorsements
Larry Meyers (eliminated at convention)
- Individuals
- Ammon Bundy, car fleet manager, led the 2016 occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge[24]
- Jonathan E. Johnson, chairman of the board for Overstock.com and former Republican candidate for Utah governor[25]
Results
| State Republican Convention results, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | First ballot | Pct. | Second ballot | Pct. |
| Mike Kennedy | 1,354 | 40.69% | 1,642 | 50.88% |
| Mitt Romney | 1,539 | 46.24% | 1,585 | 49.12% |
| Larry Meyers | 163 | 4.90% | Eliminated | |
| Samuel Parker | 122 | 3.67% | Eliminated | |
| Timothy Jiminez | 100 | 3.01% | Eliminated | |
| Alicia Colvin | 29 | 0.87% | Eliminated | |
| Stoney Fonua | 7 | 0.21% | Eliminated | |
| Loy Brunson | 4 | 0.12% | Eliminated | |
| Joshua Lee | 2 | 0.06% | Eliminated | |
| Chris Forbush | 0 | 0% | Eliminated | |
| Gayle Painter | 0 | 0% | Eliminated | |
| Total | 3,328 | 100.00% | 3,227 | 100.00% |
Primary
Debates
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch |
Jon Huntsman Jr. |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates[29] | January 9–16, 2017 | 605 | ± 4.0% | 21% | 62% | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
with Orrin Hatch
Endorsements
Mitt Romney
- U.S. executive branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States[30]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[31]
- U.S. senators
- Jeff Flake, U.S. senator from Arizona[32]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina and Republican candidate for president of the United States in 2016[33]
- Chuck Grassley, U.S. senator from Iowa[34]
- Orrin Hatch, U.S. Senator from Utah and President Pro Tempore of the Senate[35]
- John McCain, U.S. senator from Arizona and Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2008[36] (deceased)
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky and Senate Majority Leader[37]
- Jim Risch, U.S. senator from Idaho[38]
- Richard Shelby, U.S. senator from Alabama[39]
- U.S. representatives
- Jason Chaffetz, former U.S. representative from Utah's 3rd district[40]
- John Curtis, U.S. representative from Utah's 3rd district
- Mia Love, U.S. representative from Utah's 4th district[21]
- Paul Ryan, 55th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st District, and Romney's running mate in the 2012 presidential election[41]
- U.S. governors
- Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and Republican candidate for president of the United States in 2016[42]
- Luis Fortuño, former governor of Puerto Rico (New Progressive)[43]
- Gary Herbert, governor of Utah[44]
- Statewide officeholders
- Individuals
- Jon Huntsman Sr., businessman and philanthropist[46]
- Evan McMullin, former congressional staffer, former CIA agent and independent candidate for president of the United States in 2016 (Independent)[47]
- Dana Milbank, political commentator[48]
- Henry Paulson, 74th United States Secretary of the Treasury[49]
- Kevin D. Williamson, political commentator[50]
- Newspapers and magazines
Mike Kennedy
- State legislators
- Jake Anderegg, state senator[53]
- Stewart Barlow, state representative[53]
- Kay Christofferson, state representative[53]
- Kim Coleman, state representative[53]
- Francis Gibson, state representative[53]
- Brian Greene, state representative[53]
- Dan McCay, state representative[53]
- Michael Noel, state representative[54]
- Paul Ray, state representative[53]
- Marc Roberts, state representative[53]
- Mike Schultz, state representative[53]
- Keven Stratton, state representative[53]
- Christine Watkins, state representative[54]
- Individuals
- Michael Johns, policy analyst, speechwriter and Tea Party movement spokesman[55]
- Robert C. Oaks, retired U.S. Air Force general[56]
Debates
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link(s) | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
|||||
| Mike Kennedy | Mitt Romney | ||||
| May 29, 2018 | Utah Debate Commission | David Magleby | [57] | P | P |
Results
Romney
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
Kennedy
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitt Romney | 240,021 | 71.27% | |
| Republican | Mike Kennedy | 96,771 | 28.73% | |
| Total votes | 336,792 | 100% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jenny Wilson, Salt Lake County councilwoman and candidate for Mayor of Salt Lake City in 2007[59]
Eliminated at convention
- Mitchell Kent Vice, businessman[60]
Withdrew
- Danny Drew, director of adult education for the Duchesne County School District[61][62]
- James Singer, Salt Lake Community College, Westminster College adjunct professor, candidate For UT-03[63][64]
Declined
- Ben McAdams, mayor of Salt Lake County (running for UT-04)[65]
Endorsements
Jenny Wilson
- U.S. representatives
- Grace Meng, U.S. representative (D-NY)[66]
- Statewide and local politicians
- Luz Escamilla, Utah state senator[67]
- Individuals
- Randy Bryce, ironworker and candidate for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district[68]
Mitchell Vice
- Organizations
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local Union 57[69]
Libertarian Party
Candidates
Declared
- Craig Bowden, veteran and businessman[70]
Constitution Party
Candidates
Declared
- Tim Aalders[71]
Independent American Party
Candidates
Declared
General election
Summarize
Perspective
Candidates
Debates
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link(s) | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
|||||
| Mitt Romney |
Jenny Wilson | ||||
| October 9, 2018 | Utah Debate Commission | Bruce Lindsay | [73] | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[74] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[75] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[76] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[77] | Likely R | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[78] | Safe R | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[79] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
^Highest rating given
Endorsements
Mitt Romney (R)
- U.S. executive branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States[30]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[31]
- U.S. senators
- Jeff Flake, U.S. senator from Arizona[32]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina and Republican candidate for president of the United States in 2016[33]
- Chuck Grassley, U.S. senator from Iowa[34]
- Orrin Hatch, U.S. senator from Utah and president pro tempore of the Senate[35]
- John McCain, U.S. senator from Arizona and Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2008[36] (deceased)
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky and Senate Majority Leader[37]
- Jim Risch, U.S. senator from Idaho[38]
- Richard Shelby, U.S. senator from Alabama[39]
- U.S. representatives
- Jason Chaffetz, former U.S. representative from Utah's 3rd district[40]
- John Curtis, U.S. representative from Utah's 3rd district
- Mia Love, U.S. representative from Utah's 4th district[21]
- Paul Ryan, 55th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st District, and Romney's running mate in the 2012 presidential election[41]
- U.S. governors
- Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and Republican candidate for president of the United States in 2016[42]
- Luis Fortuño, former governor of Puerto Rico (New Progressive)[43]
- Gary Herbert, governor of Utah[44]
- Statewide officeholders
- State legislators
- Mike Kennedy, state representative and primary opponent[80]
- Individuals
- Jon Huntsman Sr., businessman and philanthropist (now deceased)[46]
- Evan McMullin, former congressional staffer, former CIA agent and independent candidate for president of the United States in 2016 (Independent)[47]
- Dana Milbank, political commentator[48]
- Henry Paulson, 74th United States Secretary of the Treasury[49]
- Kevin D. Williamson, political commentator[50]
- Newspapers and magazines
Jenny Wilson (D)
- U.S. representatives
- Grace Meng, U.S. representative (D-NY)[66]
- Statewide and local politicians
- Luz Escamilla, Utah state senator[67]
- Labor unions
- United Automobile Workers[81]
- Utah State AFL-CIO[82]
- Organizations
Polling
Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitt Romney (R) |
Jenny Wilson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Utah[84] | October 3–9, 2018 | 607 | ± 4.0% | 59% | 23% | 8% | 10% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[85] | August 22–31, 2018 | 809 | ± 3.4% | 55% | 29% | 8%[86] | 7% |
| Lighthouse Research[87] | August 11–27, 2018 | 2,400 | – | 59% | 19% | 9%[88] | 14% |
| University of Utah[89] | June 11–18, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.9% | 58% | 20% | – | 21% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[90] | January 15–18, 2018 | 803 | ± 3.5% | 64% | 19% | – | 12% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[91] | November 16–21, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 72% | 21% | – | 7% |
| Dan Jones & Associates[92] | August 30 – September 5, 2017[note 1] | 608 | ± 4.0% | 64% | 26% | – | 10% |
Notes
- The party affiliations of candidates were not described in the question wording as a result of an oversight by the pollster.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mitt Romney (R) |
Jenny Wilson (D) |
Craig Bowden (L) |
Dan McCay (R) |
Mitchell Vice (D) |
Larry Meyers (R) |
Alicia Colvin (R) |
Jay Hyatt (R) |
L'Capi Titus (R) |
Timothy Jimenez (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates[93] | February 9–16, 2018 | 609 | ± 4.0% | 60% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Kennedy (R) |
Jenny Wilson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates[27] | June 11–18, 2018 | 654 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Orrin Hatch (R) |
Evan McMullin (I) |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[94] | March 18–March 20, 2017 | 625 | ± 3.9% | 29% | 33% | 11% | 10% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Stewart (R) |
Jenny Wilson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates[92] | August 30 – September 5, 2017 | 608 | ± 4.0% | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Matt Holland (R) |
Jenny Wilson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates[92] | August 30 – September 5, 2017 | 608 | ± 4.0% | 23% | 30% | 47% |
Hypothetical polling
with Mike Kennedy
with Orrin Hatch
with Chris Stewart
with Matt Holland
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitt Romney | 665,215 | 62.59% | −2.72% | |
| Democratic | Jenny Wilson | 328,541 | 30.91% | +0.93% | |
| Constitution | Tim Aalders | 28,774 | 2.71% | −0.46% | |
| Libertarian | Craig Bowden | 27,607 | 2.60% | N/A | |
| Independent American | Reed McCandless | 12,708 | 1.20% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 52 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,062,897 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Romney won all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[96]
| District | Romney | Wilson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67% | 25% | Rob Bishop |
| 2nd | 57% | 36% | Chris Stewart |
| 3rd | 68% | 26% | John Curtis |
| 4th | 59% | 36% | Mia Love |
| Ben McAdams | |||
References
External links
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