2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections. For the other Senate election in Mississippi held in parallel, see 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi.

The 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was re-elected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger, David Baria.

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout	49.7%
Nominee Roger Wicker David Baria Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 547,619 369,567 Percentage 58.49% 39.47%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Wicker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100% Baria:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90%
U.S. senator before election Roger Wicker Republican Elected U.S. Senator Roger Wicker Republican

The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018, with a runoff on June 26 if a party's primary fails to produce a majority winner.^[1] The race took place on the same day as the nonpartisan jungle primary for the other U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi, which was vacated by Thad Cochran in the spring of 2018.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Roger Wicker, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]
• Richard Boyanton, businessman^[3]

Withdrawn

• Chris McDaniel, state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^{[4][5][6][7][8]} (running for the Class 2 U.S. Senate seat)^[9][10]

Endorsements

Roger Wicker

U.S. Presidents

• George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States^[11]
• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States^[12]

Governors

• Phil Bryant, Mississippi^[13]

Statewide Officials

• Greg Snowden, Speaker pro tempore of the Mississippi House of Representatives^[14]

U.S. Senators

• Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania^[15]

Mississippi State Officials

• Dane Maxwell, Mayor of Pascagoula^[16]

Chris McDaniel (withdrawn)

Political operatives

• Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC^[17]
• Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party^[18]
• Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party^[19]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roger Wicker	Chris McDaniel	Tate Reeves	Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[20]	April 10–11, 2018	446	–	66%	16%	–	18%
JMC Analytics[21]	February 15–17, 2018	500	± 4.4%	38%	–	15%	47%
				38%	20%	–	42%
Mason-Dixon[22]	December 13–15, 2017	400	± 5.0%	49%	33%	–	18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker)[23]	April 22–25, 2017	500	± 4.2%	55%	30%	–	14%

Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county

Map legend

•   Wicker—≥90%
•   Wicker—80–90%
•   Wicker—70–80%
•   Wicker—60–70%

Republican primary results^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roger Wicker (incumbent)	130,118	82.79%
	Republican	Richard Boyanton	27,052	17.21%
Total votes			157,170	100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader^[25]
• Jensen Bohren^[26]
• Jerone Garland^[27]
• Victor G. Maurice Jr.^[27]
• Omeria Scott, state representative^[28]
• Howard Sherman, businessman and husband of actress Sela Ward^[29]

Declined

• Jeramey Anderson, state representative (running for MS-4)^[30][31]
• Brandon Presley, chair of the Mississippi Public Service Commission^[32][33]

Endorsements

Jensen Bohren

Organizations

• Jackpine Radicals^[34]
• Vote STEM^[35]
• Sustainable Politician Project^[36]
• Mississippi DSA^[37]

David Baria

Organizations

• End Citizens United^[38]
• Mississippi AFL-CIO^[39]
• Mississippi Association of Educators ^[40]
• Sierra Club^[41]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	David Baria	Jensen Bohren	Omeria Scott	Howard Sherman	Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[20]	April 10–11, 2018	446	7%	4%	9%	2%	79%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Baria	Chuck Espy	Jim Hood	Bennie Thompson	Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[42]	January 29, 2018	2,145	± 1.8%	–	–	33%	47%	20%
				10%	34%	–	–	56%

Hypothetical polling

Results

Initial primary results by county

Map legend

•   Sherman—50–60%
•   Sherman—40–50%
•   Sherman—30–40%
•   Baria—30–40%
•   Baria—40–50%
•   Baria—50–60%
•   Baria—60–70%
•   Baria—80–90%
•   Scott—30–40%
•   Scott—40–50%
•   Scott—50–60%
•   Scott—70–80%
•   Scott—80–90%
•   Garland—50–60%

Democratic primary results^[43]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Howard Sherman	27,957	31.79%
	Democratic	David Baria	27,244	30.98%
	Democratic	Omeria Scott	21,278	24.20%
	Democratic	Victor G. Maurice Jr.	4,361	4.96%
	Democratic	Jerone Garland	4,266	4.85%
	Democratic	Jensen Bohren	2,825	3.21%
Total votes			87,931	100%

Runoff results

Primary runoff results by county

Map legend

•   Baria—≥90%
•   Baria—80–90%
•   Baria—70–80%
•   Baria—60–70%
•   Baria—50–60%
•   Sherman—50–60%
•   Sherman—60–70%
•   Sherman—70–80%
•   Sherman—80–90%

Democratic primary runoff results^[44]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	David Baria	44,156	58.64%
	Democratic	Howard Sherman	31,149	41.36%
Total votes			75,305	100%

Independents and third party candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared

• Danny Bedwell, candidate for MS-01 in 2012 and 2014^[27]

Reform Party

Declared

• Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate^[27]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[45]	Safe R	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[46]	Safe R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Fox News[48]	Likely R	July 9, 2018
CNN[49]	Safe R	July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[50]	Safe R	June 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
Candidate	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Roger Wicker (R)	$5,349,028	$3,831,418	$3,138,044
David Baria (D)	$532,629	$528,325	$72,922
Source: Federal Election Commission[51]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roger Wicker (R)	David Baria (D)	Danny Bedwell (L)	Other	Undecided
Change Research[52]	November 2–4, 2018	1,003	–	48%	40%	5%	3%[53]	–
Marist College[54]	October 13–18, 2018	511 LV	± 6.1%	57%	31%	2%	2%[55]	9%
				60%	32%	–	2%	7%
		856 RV	± 4.7%	54%	30%	3%	2%[55]	10%
				57%	32%	–	2%	9%
SurveyMonkey[56]	September 9–24, 2018	985	± 4.3%	43%	29%	–	–	27%
Triumph Campaigns[57]	July 30–31, 2018	2,100	± 3.5%	53%	32%	1%	2%[58]	12%
Triumph Campaigns[20]	April 10–11, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	48%	31%	–	–	21%

Results

United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018^[59]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roger Wicker (incumbent)	547,619	58.49%	+1.33%
	Democratic	David Baria	369,567	39.47%	−1.08%
	Libertarian	Danny Bedwell	12,981	1.39%	N/A
	Reform	Shawn O'Hara	6,048	0.65%	−0.41%
Total votes			936,215	100%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Copiah (Largest city: Hazlehurst)
• Panola (Largest city: Batesville)
• Pike (Largest city: McComb)
• Yazoo (Largest city: Yazoo City)

By congressional district

Wicker won 3 of 4 congressional districts.^[60]

District	Wicker	Baria	Representative
1st	66%	32%	Trent Kelly
2nd	38%	61%	Bennie Thompson
3rd	62%	36%	Michael Guest
4th	68%	30%	Steven Palazzo

References

1. "United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018 – Ballotpedia". Archived from the original on April 21, 2017. Retrieved March 3, 2017.
2. "Former President Bush to attend private event in Jackson". Starkville Daily News. June 1, 2017. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
3. "Candidacy form" (PDF). docquery.fec.gov. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 16, 2018. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
4. Pender, Geoff (November 16, 2015). "Some post-Trump political prognostics". The Clarion-Ledger. Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
5. "Precursor to 2018? Coordinated effort by McDaniel, Sojourner, Walters to malign Sen. @RogerWicker". Yall Politics. November 14, 2015. Archived from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
6. Harrison, Bobby (July 9, 2017). "Will Tupelo's Wicker face McDaniel challenge in 2018 Senate race?". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Archived from the original on July 16, 2017. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
7. "GOP showdown: McDaniel expected to challenge Wicker for Senate". Politico. Archived from the original on February 27, 2018. Retrieved February 26, 2018.
8. Swanson, Ian (February 28, 2018). "McDaniel makes GOP Senate challenge official in Miss". Archived from the original on March 1, 2018. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
9. "McDaniel to Run for Open Mississippi Senate Seat – Chris McDaniel for US Senate". March 14, 2018. Archived from the original on March 15, 2018. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
10. "Senator Chris McDaniel". www.facebook.com. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 14, 2018.
11. "Ex-President George W. Bush Raises Money for Sen. Wicker". U.S. News. June 1, 2017. Archived from the original on March 4, 2018. Retrieved March 4, 2018.
12. "President Donald Trump is backing Sen. Roger Wicker against a Steve Bannon-led challenge by Chris McDaniel". The Sun Herald. October 20, 2017. Archived from the original on December 14, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
13. Phil Bryant. "I agree with @realDonaldTrump. Sen. Roger Wicker has been instrumental in cutting taxes, eliminating burdensome regulations, creating jobs and strengthening our border. Mississippi needs Sen. Wicker in Washington, and I hope you will join me in voting for him on June 5". Twitter. Archived from the original on June 6, 2020. Retrieved March 3, 2018.
14. Greg Snowden. "Every citizen is entitled to their own opinion, of course, but for myself, I stand with President Donald Trump in supporting the re-election of Senator Roger Wicker". Twitter. Archived from the original on March 7, 2021. Retrieved March 3, 2018.
15. "Santorum Endorses Wicker". February 22, 2018. Archived from the original on February 22, 2018. Retrieved February 23, 2018.
16. Ulmer, Sarah (December 15, 2017). "Pascagoula Mayor Dane Maxwell: We're going to fight to keep Senator Wicker". Y'all Politics. Archived from the original on December 15, 2017. Retrieved December 15, 2017.
17. "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. Retrieved January 4, 2018. If Senator Chris McDaniel chooses to run for U.S. Senate, he will have our support and the support of these state and local leaders, along with many of their grassroots organizations... We are ready to hit the ground running to elect Chris McDaniel.
18. "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. Retrieved January 4, 2018. In 2014, the common folks of Mississippi made the very definite statement that we are not being heard and those in power have no intention of hearing us... One person, Chris McDaniel, had the courage to say enough is enough. We almost got it done and common people all over the country recognized what we nearly accomplished. We support Chris McDaniel's efforts to reestablish governance by the consent of the governed.
19. "#RememberMississippi PAC releases 'grassroots' letter to Chris McDaniel regarding #mssen". yallpolitics.com. Y'all Politics. December 19, 2017. Archived from the original on January 5, 2018. Retrieved January 4, 2018. Year after year, our Senators and Congressmen rank so low on most conservative scorecards. It's time we elect a Senator who truly represents Mississippi's conservative constituency.
20. Triumph Campaigns
21. JMC Analytics
22. Mason-Dixon
23. Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker)
24. "2018 Mississippi Republican primary election results" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
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28. "Omeria Scott running for US Senate". WTOK.com. March 1, 2018. Archived from the original on March 29, 2018. Retrieved March 29, 2018.
29. Hall, Sam R.; Pender, Geoff (February 28, 2018). "2 Democrats — state lawmaker, Sela Ward's husband — enter #MSSEN race". The Clarion-Ledger. Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
30. "Here are a few Democrats who could make a U.S. Senate run in Mississippi". The Clarion Ledger. Archived from the original on October 13, 2021. Retrieved December 29, 2017.
31. "Millennial Democrat enters 4th Congressional District race". sunherald. Archived from the original on December 29, 2017. Retrieved December 29, 2017.
32. Harrison, Bobby (October 19, 2017). "Presley could be hope for Democrats under right circumstances". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Archived from the original on October 19, 2017. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
33. Dovere, Edward-Isaac (January 18, 2018). "Top Democratic recruit passes on Mississippi Senate run". Politico. Archived from the original on January 18, 2018. Retrieved January 18, 2018.
34. "2018 election progressive candidates". JackpineRadicals.com. Jackpine Radicals. November 23, 2017. Archived from the original on December 14, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
35. "2018 Mississippi Candidates Vetted". VoteSTEM.org. Vote STEM. February 5, 2018. Archived from the original on February 15, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
36. "Sustainable Politician Project". sustainablepoliticianproject.com. Sustainable Politician Project. May 7, 2018. Archived from the original on May 16, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
37. "Vote For Jensen". Twitter.com. MSDSA. June 3, 2018. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved June 5, 2018.
38. Muller, Tiffany (September 6, 2018). "End Citizens United Endorses Five Reformers for Congress". End Citizens United. Archived from the original on September 17, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
39. "Baria endorsed by Mississippi AFL-CIO". bariaformississippi.com. March 27, 2018. Archived from the original on May 14, 2018. Retrieved May 13, 2018.
40. "Baria gets endorsement from MAE". WTOK. October 9, 2018. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
41. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". March 19, 2021. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
42. Triumph Campaigns
43. "2018 Mississippi Democratic primary election results" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
44. "2018 Mississippi Democratic primary runoff election results" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
45. "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on February 5, 2021. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
46. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on September 12, 2021. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
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51. "Campaign finance data". Archived from the original on July 26, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2018.
52. Change Research
53. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 3%
54. Marist College
55. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 1%, other with 1%
56. SurveyMonkey
57. Triumph Campaigns
58. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 2%
59. "2018 General Election". Archived from the original on December 7, 2018. Retrieved December 6, 2018.
60. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• David Baria (D) for Senate
• Danny Bedwell (L) for Senate
• Roger Wicker (R) for Senate