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The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the State of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The 2018 general elections saw the Democratic party gain the 2nd congressional district, thus flipping the state from a 5–4 Republican advantage to a 5–4 Democratic advantage, the first time since the 2012 election in which Democrats held more House seats in Arizona than the Republicans.
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All 9 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Party | Candidates | Votes | Seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
Democratic | 9 | 1,179,193 | 50.37 | 5 | 1 | 55.56 | |
Republican | 9 | 1,139,251 | 48.67 | 4 | 1 | 44.44 | |
Green | 2 | 22,378 | 0.96 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Write-in | 3 | 147 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Total | 23 | 2,341,270 | 100.0 | 9 | 100.0 |
Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[1]
District | Democratic | Republican | Others | Total | Result | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
District 1 | 143,240 | 53.83% | 122,784 | 46.14% | 65 | 0.03% | 266,089 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
District 2 | 161,000 | 54.73% | 133,083 | 45.24% | 69 | 0.02% | 294,152 | 100.0% | Democratic gain |
District 3 | 114,650 | 63.87% | 64,868 | 36.13% | 0 | 0.00% | 179,518 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
District 4 | 84,521 | 30.51% | 188,842 | 68.16% | 3,672 | 1.33% | 277,035 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 5 | 127,027 | 40.58% | 186,037 | 59.42% | 0 | 0.00% | 313,064 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 6 | 140,559 | 44.81% | 173,140 | 55.19% | 0 | 0.00% | 313,699 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 7 | 113,044 | 85.61% | 301 | 0.20% | 19,007 | 14.39% | 132,051 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
District 8 | 135,569 | 44.53% | 168,835 | 55.46% | 13 | 0.01% | 304,417 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
District 9 | 159,583 | 61.09% | 101,662 | 38.91% | 0 | 0.00% | 261,245 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
Total | 1,179,193 | 50.37% | 1,139,251 | 48.66% | 22,826 | 0.97% | 2,341,270 | 100.0% |
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County results O'Halleran: 50–60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% ≥90% Rogers: 50-60% 60–70% 70-80% 80-90% ≥90% Tie: No votes: | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district is home to the Grand Canyon and stretches along the eastern and northeastern portions of the state and includes Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and Marana. This district has a significant Native-American population, making up 25% of the population in the district. This district is home to a number of Indian reservations, including the Gila River Indian Community, Hopi Reservation, and the Navajo Nation. Incumbent Democrat Tom O'Halleran, who had represented the district since 2017, ran for re-election.[2] He was elected with 51% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+2, making it one of the most competitive in the state with a PVI of R+2.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tom O'Halleran (incumbent) | 64,114 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 64,114 | 100.0 |
The district was one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.[6]
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Wendy Rogers | 30,180 | 43.7 | |
Republican | Steve Smith | 25,552 | 37.0 | |
Republican | Tiffany Shedd | 13,260 | 19.2 | |
Total votes | 68,992 | 100.0 |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom O'Halleran (D) |
Wendy Rogers (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0ptimus/DDHQ[42] | October 31 – November 1, 2018 | 756 | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | 1%[a] | 6% |
American Viewpoint (R)[43] | October 16–18, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 46% | – | 5% |
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)[44] | October 9–10, 2018 | 943 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 44% | – | 18% |
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)[45] | September 27–28, 2018 | 738 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | – | 24% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[46] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[47] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[49] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[50] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
538[51] | Likely D | November 7, 2018 |
CNN[52][53] | Lean D | October 31, 2018 |
Fox News[54] | Lean D | September 21, 2018 |
Politico[55] | Lean D | November 2, 2018 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tom O'Halleran (incumbent) | 143,240 | 53.8 | |
Republican | Wendy Rogers | 122,784 | 46.1 | |
Independent | David Shock (write-in) | 65 | 0.1 | |
Majority | 20,456 | 7.7 | ||
Total votes | 266,089 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
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County results Kirkpatrick: 50-60% Martin: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district is based in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and parts of suburban Tucson. Incumbent Republican Martha McSally, who had represented the district since 2015, did not run for re-election, instead running for the U.S. Senate. She was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+1.[57]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Lea Márquez Peterson | 23,571 | 34.2 | |
Republican | Brandon Martin | 19,809 | 28.7 | |
Republican | Casey Welch | 14,499 | 21.0 | |
Republican | Daniel Morales, Jr. | 11,135 | 16.1 | |
Total votes | 69,014 | 100.0 |
This district was one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.[64]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Friese |
Matt Heinz |
Ann Kirkpatrick |
Billy Kovacs |
Mary Matiella |
Bruce Wheeler |
Other | Undecided |
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FM3 Research (D-Heinz)[78] | August 1–2, 2018 | 402 | ± 4.9% | – | 31% | 26% | – | – | – | 13% | 29% |
FM3 Research (D-Heinz)[79] | April 29 – May 3, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | – | 27% | 23% | 4% | 6% | 4% | – | 36% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)[80] | May 5–7, 2017 | 392 | ± 5.0% | 6% | 40% | 30% | – | – | – | – | 24% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick | 33,938 | 41.8 | |
Democratic | Matt Heinz | 23,992 | 29.6 | |
Democratic | Mary Matiella | 7,606 | 9.4 | |
Democratic | Bruce Wheeler | 6,814 | 8.4 | |
Democratic | Billy Kovacs | 5,350 | 6.6 | |
Democratic | Barbara Sherry | 2,074 | 2.6 | |
Democratic | Yahya Yuksel | 1,319 | 1.6 | |
Total votes | 81,093 | 100.0 |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lea Marquez-Peterson (R) |
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) |
Undecided |
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NYT Upshot/Siena College[89] | September 26 – October 1, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 50% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)[90] | February 8–10, 2018 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 34% | 43% | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lea Marquez-Peterson (R) |
Matt Heinz (D) |
Undecided |
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Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)[90] | February 8–10, 2018 | 841 | ± 3.4% | 31% | 45% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martha McSally (R) |
Matt Heinz (D) |
Undecided |
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Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)[91] | May 5–7, 2017 | 944 | ± N/A | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martha McSally (R) |
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) |
Undecided |
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Public Policy Polling (D)[92] | October 6–8, 2017 | 714 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 44% | — |
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)[91] | May 5–7, 2017 | 944 | ± N/A | 44% | 48% | 8% |
With Heinz
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report[46] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[47] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[49] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[50] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
538[51] | Safe D (flip) | November 7, 2018 |
CNN[52][53] | Likely D (flip) | October 31, 2018 |
Fox News[54] | Lean D (flip) | September 21, 2018 |
Politico[55] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2018 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick | 161,000 | 54.7 | |
Republican | Lea Márquez Peterson | 133,083 | 45.2 | |
Independent | Jordan Flayer (write-in) | 50 | 0.1 | |
Republican | Melissa Grable (write-in) | 19 | 0.0 | |
Majority | 27,917 | 9.5 | ||
Total votes | 294,152 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
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County results Grijalva: 50–60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Pierson: 50–60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The third district is based in Tucson and stretches along the southern border of Arizona including Yuma, rural portions of Maricopa County such as Gila Bend, and the western suburbs of Phoenix including Avondale, Buckeye, Goodyear, and parts of Litchfield Park. has represented this district since 2002, and ran unopposed in 2016. Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 99% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of D+13.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 45,186 | 99.8 | |
Write-in | 81 | 0.2 | ||
Total votes | 45,267 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | J. Nicholas Pierson | 13,090 | 49.9 | |
Republican | Sergio Arellano | 7,400 | 28.2 | |
Republican | Edna San Miguel | 5,756 | 21.9 | |
Total votes | 26,246 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 114,650 | 63.9 | |
Republican | Nicolas Pierson | 64,868 | 36.1 | |
Majority | 49,782 | 27.8 | ||
Total votes | 179,518 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
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Results Gosar: 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Brill: 50-60% 60-70% No votes: | |||||||||||||||||
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The fourth district takes up most of rural northwestern and western Arizona and includes Kingman, Lake Havasu City, Prescott, and San Tan Valley. Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar, who had represented the district since 2011, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+21, making it the most Republican district in Arizona.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Paul Gosar (incumbent) | 94,092 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 94,092 | 100.0 |
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | David Brill | 19,048 | 52.4 | |
Democratic | Delina Disanto | 17,256 | 47.5 | |
Write-in | 49 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 36,353 | 100.0 |
This race received national media coverage after Democratic nominee David Brill aired television advertisements in which six of Republican incumbent Paul Gosar's nine siblings each condemned their brother and endorsed Brill, imploring residents of the fourth district to vote their brother out of office.[97] Gosar responded to this advert with a tweet in which he dismissed his siblings' criticisms and characterized them as "disgruntled Hillary supporters" who "put political ideology before family".[98]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Paul Gosar (R) |
David Brill (D) |
Haryaksha Gregor Knauer (G) |
Undecided |
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OH Predictive Insights[101] | September 25, 2018 | 370 | ± 5.09% | 57% | 25% | 2% | 16% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Paul Gosar (incumbent) | 188,842 | 68.2 | |
Democratic | David Brill | 84,521 | 30.5 | |
Green | Haryaksha Gregor Knauer | 3,672 | 1.3 | |
Majority | 104,321 | 37.7 | ||
Total votes | 277,035 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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The 5th district is based in the East Valley region of suburban Phoenix and includes Gilbert and Queen Creek, as well as portions of Chandler and Mesa. Incumbent Republican Andy Biggs, who had represented the district since 2017, ran for re-election. He was elected with 64% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+15.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Andy Biggs (incumbent) | 86,418 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 86,418 | 100.0 |
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Joan Greene | 27,222 | 59.3 | |
Democratic | Jose Torres | 18,671 | 40.7 | |
Total votes | 45,893 | 100.0 |
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Andy Biggs (incumbent) | 186,037 | 59.4 | |
Democratic | Joan Greene | 127,027 | 40.6 | |
Majority | 59,010 | 18.8 | ||
Total votes | 313,064 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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The sixth district is based in northeastern suburban Phoenix and is centered around Scottsdale, and also includes many affluent communities such as Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. Incumbent Republican David Schweikert, who had represented the district since 2011, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+9.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David Schweikert (incumbent) | 83,406 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 83,406 | 100.0 |
This district was one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.[64]
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Anita Malik | 22,666 | 42.2 | |
Democratic | Heather Ross | 20,203 | 37.6 | |
Democratic | Garrick McFadden | 10,825 | 20.2 | |
Total votes | 53,694 | 100.0 |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Schweikert (R) |
Anita Malik (D) |
Undecided |
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NYT Upshot/Siena College[105] | October 11–15, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[46] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[47] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[49] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[50] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
538[51] | Likely R | November 7, 2018 |
CNN[53] | Likely R | October 31, 2018 |
Politico[55] | Likely R | September 21, 2018 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David Schweikert (incumbent) | 173,140 | 55.2 | |
Democratic | Anita Malik | 140,559 | 44.8 | |
Majority | 32,581 | 10.4 | ||
Total votes | 313,699 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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The seventh district is based in the city of Phoenix and also includes parts of Glendale and Tolleson. Incumbent Democrat Ruben Gallego, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 75% of the vote in 2016,[2] and the district had a PVI of D+23, making it the most Democratic district in Arizona.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Ruben Gallego (incumbent) | 32,231 | 74.8 | |
Democratic | Catherine Miranda | 10,856 | 25.2 | |
Total votes | 43,087 | 100.0 |
No Republican candidate filed to run.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ruben Gallego (incumbent) | 113,044 | 85.6 | |
Green | Gary Swing | 18,706 | 14.2 | |
Republican | James "007" Bond IV (write-in) | 301 | 0.2 | |
Majority | 794,338 | 71.4 | ||
Total votes | 132,051 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
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The eighth district is based in the West Valley region of suburban Phoenix and includes the cities of El Mirage, Peoria, and Surprise, and also many retirement communities such as Sun City. Republican Trent Franks who had represented the district since 2003[2] resigned from Congress on December 8, 2017, after a controversy regarding surrogate mothers.[108] Republican Debbie Lesko won the special election that took place on April 24, 2018, defeating Democratic nominee Hiral Tipirneni with 53% of the vote. The district had a PVI of R+13.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Debbie Lesko (incumbent) | 73,776 | 77.2 | |
Republican | Sandra E. Dowling | 21,825 | 22.8 | |
Total votes | 95,601 | 100.0 |
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Hiral Tipirneni | 52,215 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 52,215 | 100.0 |
The Lesko campaign was criticized for producing yard sign attacking Tipirneni as a "fake doctor" and as a "phony." on TV ads. These signs were taken down, but after Lesko accused Tipirneni of professional dishonesty during a TV appearance, the Arizona Medical Association withdrew its endorsement of Lesko.[119]
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Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report[123][46] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[47] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[49] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[50] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
538[51] | Likely R | November 7, 2018 |
CNN[53] | Likely R | October 31, 2018 |
Politico[55] | Likely R | September 21, 2018 |
In the general election, Lesko won a full term, again defeating Tipirneni.[124]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Debbie Lesko (incumbent) | 168,835 | 55.5 | |
Democratic | Hiral Tipirneni | 135,569 | 44.5 | |
New Paradigm Party | Steven Hummel (write-in) | 13 | 0.0 | |
Majority | 33,266 | 11.0 | ||
Total votes | 304,417 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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The ninth district is based in suburban Phoenix and is centered around Tempe, and also includes portions of Chandler, Mesa, and Scottsdale. Incumbent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, who had represented the district since 2013, did not seek re-election, instead running for U.S. Senate. She was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of D+4, making it moderately competitive.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Greg Stanton | 59,066 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 59,066 | 100.0 |
This district was one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.[6]
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Steve Ferrara | 31,006 | 59.9 | |
Republican | David Giles | 16,722 | 32.3 | |
Republican | Irina Baroness von Behr | 4,020 | 7.8 | |
Total votes | 51,748 | 100.0 |
Organizations
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[46] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
Inside Elections[47] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
RCP[49] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[50] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
538[51] | Safe D | November 7, 2018 |
CNN[52][53] | Likely D | October 31, 2018 |
Politico[55] | Likely D | November 2, 2018 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Greg Stanton | 159,583 | 61.1 | |
Republican | Steve Ferrara | 101,662 | 38.9 | |
Majority | 57,921 | 22.2 | ||
Total votes | 261,245 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic hold |
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