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The 2018 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Texas, concurrently with the election of Texas's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other congressional, state and local elections throughout the United States and Texas. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a second term in office[2] defeating Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez, the former sheriff of Dallas County, and Libertarian nominee Mark Tippetts, a former member of the Lago Vista city council.
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Turnout | 53.01% (of registered voters) 19.31pp 42.07% (of voting age population)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Abbott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Valdez: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The Republican and Democratic party primaries were held on March 6, 2018, making them the first primaries of the 2018 electoral season.[3] Abbott won the March 6 primary with 90% of the vote to receive the Republican nomination, while Democratic candidates Lupe Valdez and Andrew White advanced to a May 22 runoff.[4] Valdez defeated White in the runoff with 53.1% of the vote and faced Abbott in the general election as the Democratic nominee.[5]
Valdez's nomination made her the first openly gay person nominated for governor by a major party in the state.[6]
Tippetts was nominated at the Libertarian Party of Texas' state convention in Houston April 13–15, 2018. He defeated three challengers, as well as the None Of The Above option, on the first ballot and received more than 70% approval from Libertarian party delegates.
Despite considerably closer contests in other Texas state elections, Abbott handily won a second term with the highest margin of victory of any state official on the ballot, although Valdez also won the largest vote share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards in 1994.[7] Tippetts' showing exceeded the previous record for most votes for a Libertarian nominee for Texas governor; that record had been set in 1990.
The election also took place alongside a closer, higher-profile Senate race between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, which may have played a factor in making the Democratic gubernatorial candidate considerably more competitive than in 2014. Abbott won a majority among white voters (72% to 26%), while Valdez won majorities among African Americans (80% to 16%) and Latinos (63% to 35%).[8]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott |
Barbara Krueger |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dixie Strategies | February 22–23, 2018 | – | ± 4.7% | 84% | 2% | 1%[22] | 13% |
University of Texas | February 1–12, 2018 | 612 | ± 5.3% | 95% | 5% | 0%[23] | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 1,392,310 | 90.38% | −1.11% | |
Republican | Barbara Krueger | 127,549 | 8.28% | ||
Republican | Larry Kilgore | 20,504 | 1.33% | −0.09% | |
Total votes | 1,540,363 | 100% | +202,488 | ||
Turnout | 10.10%[25] | −0.26%'"`UNIQ−−ref−00000084−QINU`"' |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Adrian Ocegueda |
Jeffrey Payne |
Lupe Valdez |
Tom Wakely |
Andrew White |
Grady Yarbrough |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dixie Strategies | February 22–23, 2018 | – | ± 5.7% | 6% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 17% | 1% | 6%[107] | 54% |
University of Texas | February 1–12, 2018 | 453 | ± 7.4% | 5% | 5% | 43% | 7% | 24% | 7% | 8%[108] | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Lupe Valdez | 436,666 | 42.89% | ||
Democratic | Andrew White | 278,708 | 27.37% | ||
Democratic | Cedric Davis Sr. | 83,938 | 8.24% | ||
Democratic | Grady Yarbrough | 54,660 | 5.36% | ||
Democratic | Jeffrey Payne | 48,407 | 4.75% | ||
Democratic | Adrian Ocegueda | 44,825 | 4.4% | ||
Democratic | Tom Wakely | 34,889 | 3.42% | ||
Democratic | James Clark | 21,945 | 2.15% | ||
Democratic | Joe Mumbach | 13,921 | 1.36% | ||
Total votes | 1,017,959 | 100% | +463,945 | ||
Turnout | 6.67%[25] | +2.6%'"`UNIQ−−ref−000001D4−QINU`"' |
Lupe Valdez and Andrew White proceeded to a run-off on May 22 since neither received 50% of the vote in the first round of the primary.[4] Lupe Valdez won the runoff.[110]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Lupe Valdez | 227,577 | 53.1 | ||
Democratic | Andrew White | 201,356 | 46.9 | ||
Total votes | 432,180 | 100 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[150] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[151] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[152] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[153] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[154] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[155] | Safe R | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[156] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[157][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[158] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[159] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Lupe Valdez (D) |
Mark Tippetts (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 28–30, 2018 | 781 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 43% | 2% | – | 4% |
Quinnipiac University | October 22–28, 2018 | 1,078 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 40% | – | 1% | 6% |
University of Texas Tyler | October 15–28, 2018 | 1,033 | ± 3.0% | 53% | 32% | – | 5% | 10% |
Dixie Strategies | October 25–26, 2018 | 588 | ± 4.0% | 59% | 33% | – | – | 7% |
University of Texas/YouGov | October 15–21, 2018 | 927 | ± 3.2% | 56% | 37% | 3% | 4% | – |
Ipsos | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,298 | ± 3.2% | 53% | 38% | – | 3% | 6% |
CNN/SSRS | October 9–13, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 4.5% | 57% | 39% | – | 0% | 3% |
862 RV | ± 4.1% | 56% | 38% | – | 0% | 4% | ||
NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 8–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.6% | 57% | 35% | – | – | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | October 3–9, 2018 | 730 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 38% | – | 0% | 4% |
Emerson College | October 1–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 33% | – | 3% | 11% |
Epstein Group Archived October 13, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | September 15–24, 2018 | 1,200 | ± 2.9% | 58% | 29% | 3% | – | 10% |
Vox Populi Polling | September 16–18, 2018 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | September 11–17, 2018 | 807 | ± 4.1% | 58% | 39% | – | 0% | 3% |
Ipsos Archived September 20, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | September 6–14, 2018 | 992 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 41% | – | 2% | 6% |
Crosswind Media & Public Relations | September 6–9, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | – | – | – |
Dixie Strategies | September 6–7, 2018 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 53% | 34% | 1% | – | 12% |
Emerson College | August 22–25, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 28% | – | 3% | 20% |
Marist College | August 12–16, 2018 | 759 | ± 3.8% | 56% | 37% | – | <1% | 6% |
Quinnipiac University | July 26–31, 2018 | 1,118 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 38% | – | 1% | 9% |
Texas Lyceum | July 9–26, 2018 | 441 LV | ± 4.7% | 47% | 31% | 1% | – | 22% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 25% | 3% | – | 28% | ||
Gravis Marketing | July 3–7, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | – | – | 8% |
University of Texas/YouGov | June 8–17, 2018 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 44% | 32% | 4% | 4% | 16% |
Quinnipiac University | May 23–29, 2018 | 961 | ± 3.8% | 53% | 34% | – | 1% | 9% |
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) | May 19–21, 2018 | 575 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 36% | – | – | 16% |
Quinnipiac University | April 12–17, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 40% | – | 0% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Andrew White (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) | May 19–21, 2018 | 575 | ± 4.1% | 50% | 39% | – | 10% |
Quinnipiac University | April 12–17, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 0% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Julian Castro (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | August 12–14, 2016 | 944 | ± 3.2% | 57% | 28% | – | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Greg Abbott (R) |
Wendy Davis (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | August 12–14, 2016 | 944 | ± 3.2% | 57% | 32% | – | 11% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 4,656,196 | 55.81% | −3.46% | |
Democratic | Lupe Valdez | 3,546,615 | 42.51% | +3.61% | |
Libertarian | Mark Tippetts | 140,632 | 1.69% | +0.28% | |
Total votes | 8,343,443 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Abbott won 25 of 36 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[161]
Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls.[162]
Demographic subgroup | Abbott | Valdez | % of total vote |
---|---|---|---|
Ideology | |||
Liberals | 11 | 83 | 22 |
Moderates | 43 | 55 | 35 |
Conservatives | 88 | 11 | 43 |
Party | |||
Democrats | 11 | 87 | 34 |
Republicans | 93 | 4 | 39 |
Independents | 55 | 40 | 27 |
Age | |||
18–24 years old | 34 | 53 | 8 |
25–29 years old | 31 | 68 | 7 |
30–39 years old | 53 | 44 | 15 |
40–49 years old | 58 | 41 | 17 |
50–64 years old | 60 | 36 | 26 |
65 and older | 62 | 37 | 27 |
Gender | |||
Men | 60 | 36 | 49 |
Women | 50 | 47 | 51 |
Marital status | |||
Married | 60 | 37 | 66 |
Unmarried | 45 | 53 | 34 |
Marital status by gender | |||
Married men | 63 | 35 | 34 |
Married women | 55 | 40 | 31 |
Unmarried men | 48 | 50 | 15 |
Unmarried women | 43 | 56 | 20 |
Race | |||
White | 69 | 29 | 57 |
Non-white | 36 | 60 | 43 |
Race/ethnicity | |||
White | 69 | 29 | 57 |
Black | 15 | 82 | 12 |
Latino | 42 | 53 | 26 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Other | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Gender by race | |||
White men | 75 | 23 | 27 |
White women | 65 | 34 | 29 |
Black men | 24 | 75 | 6 |
Black women | 8 | 89 | 6 |
Latino men | 42 | 49 | 12 |
Latino women | 42 | 56 | 13 |
Other racial/ethnic groups | 53 | 46 | 6 |
Education | |||
Never attended college | 57 | 41 | 21 |
Some college education | 57 | 37 | 26 |
Associate degree | 53 | 44 | 14 |
Bachelor's degree | 58 | 40 | 25 |
Advanced degree | 46 | 53 | 15 |
Education by race | |||
White college graduates | 61 | 37 | 26 |
White no college degree | 76 | 22 | 31 |
Non-white college graduates | 38 | 61 | 14 |
Non-white no college degree | 35 | 60 | 29 |
Education by gender/race | |||
White women with college degrees | 56 | 42 | 13 |
White women without college degrees | 72 | 28 | 17 |
White men with college degrees | 67 | 32 | 13 |
White men without college degrees | 81 | 15 | 14 |
Non-white | 36 | 60 | 43 |
Income | |||
Under $50K | 48 | 50 | 35 |
$50K-$100K | 57 | 43 | 31 |
$100K or more | 69 | 34 | 34 |
2016 presidential vote | |||
Trump | 94 | 3 | 46 |
Clinton | 14 | 85 | 37 |
Other | N/A | N/A | 5 |
Did not vote | N/A | N/A | 11 |
Issue regarded as most important | |||
Immigration | 74 | 16 | 34 |
Economy | 61 | 36 | 21 |
Healthcare | 36 | 62 | 36 |
Gun policy | N/A | N/A | 6 |
Area type | |||
Urban | 45 | 51 | 41 |
Suburban | 59 | 38 | 46 |
Rural | 73 | 26 | 13 |
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