2018 Oregon gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election, Democratic governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber's term.^[1]

2018 Oregon gubernatorial election

← 2016 (special) November 6, 2018 2022 →

Nominee Kate Brown Knute Buehler Party Democratic Republican Alliance Working Families Popular vote 934,498 814,988 Percentage 50.05% 43.65%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Brown:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Buehler:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

Governor before election Kate Brown Democratic Elected Governor Kate Brown Democratic

The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler, her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Kate Brown, incumbent governor^[2]
• Ed Jones^[3]
• Candace Neville^[3]

Endorsements

Kate Brown

U.S. senators

• Jeff Merkley, U.S. senator (D-OR)^[4]

Organizations

• Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund^[5]
• Human Rights Campaign^[6][7]
• Oregon AFL–CIO^[8][9]
• Oregon League of Conservation Voters^[9]
• Planned Parenthood PAC of Oregon^[10]

Results

Results by county:

  Brown

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kate Brown (incumbent)	324,541	81.9
	Democratic	Ed Jones	33,464	8.4
	Democratic	Candace Neville	29,110	7.4
	Democratic	Write-ins	8,912	2.3
Total votes			396,027	100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Keenan Bohach^[3]
• Knute Buehler, orthopedic surgeon, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012^[11]
• Sam Carpenter, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016^[12][13][14]
• Jonathan Edwards III^[3]
• Brett Hyland^[3]
• Jeff Smith, small business owner^[15]
• David Stauffer^[3]
• Jack Tracy^[3]
• Greg Wooldridge, former Blue Angels commanding officer^[16]

Withdrew

• Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)^[3][17]

Declined

• Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Mayor of Happy Valley and nominee for the state house in 2016^[18][11][19]
• Cedric Ross Hayden, state representative^[20]
• Mike McLane, House Minority Leader^[21]
• Bud Pierce, physician and nominee for governor in 2016^[22][23]
• Bill Post, state representative^[20][11]
• Dennis Richardson, Oregon Secretary of State, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014^[24]

Endorsements

Knute Buehler

U.S. senators

• Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. senator (R-OR)^[25][9]

State legislators

• Greg Barreto, state representative^[26]
• Cliff Bentz, state senator^[26]
• Daniel Bonham, state representative^[26]
• Sal Esquivel, state representative^[9][27]
• Lynn Findley, state representative^[26]
• Bill Hansell, state senator^[28]
• Dallas Heard, state representative^[29]
• Mike McLane, state representative^[26]
• Ron Noble, state representative^[26]
• Andy Olson, state representative^[26]
• E. Werner Reschke, state representative^[30]
• Gene Whisnant, state representative^[31][9]

Individuals

• Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon^[32]
• Antoinette Hatfield, former first lady of Oregon^[33]
• Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder of Nike^[34][9]

Organizations

• National Federation of Independent Business^[35]
• Oregon Cattlemen's Association^[36]
• Oregon Farm Bureau^[36]

Newspapers

• Blue Mountain Eagle^[37]
• The Bulletin^[38][39]
• Corvallis Gazette-Times^[40]
• The Daily Astorian^[41]
• East Oregonian^[42]
• The Oregonian^[43][44]
• Portland Tribune^[45][46]
• The Register-Guard^[47]
• Willamette Week^[48]

Greg Wooldridge

State legislators

• Bill Post, state representative^[49]

Organizations

• Oregon Right to Life^[50]

Debates

Host network	Date	Link(s)	Participants
			Knute Buehler	Sam Carpenter	Greg Wooldridge
KXL-FM	May 11, 2018	[51]	Invited	Invited	Invited

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Knute Buehler	Sam Carpenter	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	Greg Wooldridge	Other	Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[52]	May 3–6, 2018	438	± 4.7%	33%	25%	–	8%	–	33%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[53]	April 19–22, 2018	1,013	± 3.1%	39%	24%	–	12%	6%[a]	20%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]	March 19–25, 2018	628	–	23%	23%	–	4%	–	50%
iCitizen[55]	September 13–28, 2017	168	± 3.9%	28%	–	8%	31%	6%	26%

Results

Results by county:

  Buehler

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Carpenter

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Knute Buehler	144,103	45.9
	Republican	Sam Carpenter	90,572	28.8
	Republican	Greg C. Wooldridge	63,049	20.1
	Republican	Bruce Cuff	4,857	1.5
	Republican	Jeff Smith	4,691	1.5
	Republican	David Stauffer	2,096	0.7
	Republican	Write-ins	1,701	0.5
	Republican	Jonathan Edwards III	861	0.3
	Republican	Keenan Bohach	787	0.3
	Republican	Brett Hyland	755	0.2
	Republican	Jack W. Tacy	512	0.2
Total votes			313,984	100

Independent Party primary

Candidates

Declared

• Skye Allen^[3]
• Dan Pistoresi^[3]
• Patrick Starnes^[3]

Results

Independent primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Independent Party	Write-ins	13,497	56.8
	Independent Party	Patrick Starnes	6,030	25.4
	Independent Party	Skye J. Allen	2,405	10.6
	Independent Party	Dan Pistoresi	1,846	7.8
Total votes			23,778	100.0

General election

Knute Buehler campaign logo

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
• Third party debate, featuring Nick Chen (L), Patrick Starnes (I), and Chris Henry (P), hosted by former Green Party candidate Alex DiBlasi, October 6, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 9, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[56]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[57]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[58]	Likely D	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[59]	Tilt D	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60]	Lean D	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[61]	Tossup	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[62]	Lean D	November 5, 2018
Fox News[63][b]	Lean D	November 5, 2018
Politico[64]	Lean D	November 5, 2018
Governing[65]	Tossup	November 5, 2018

Notes

1. Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
2. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kate Brown (D)	Knute Buehler (R)	Other/Undecided [a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics[66]	October 4–30, 2018	October 30, 2018	44.0%	39.7%	16.3%	Brown +4.3%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Knute Buehler (R)	Patrick Starnes (IPO)	Other	Undecided
Hoffman Research Group[67]	October 29–30, 2018	694	± 3.7%	45%	42%	4%	2%[68]	7%
Emerson College[69]	October 26–28, 2018	747	± 3.7%	47%	42%	–	7%	4%
DHM Research[70]	October 4–11, 2018	500	± 4.4%	40%	35%	4%	3%[71]	17%
Riley Research Associates[72]	September 24 – October 7, 2018	356	± 5.0%	49%	45%	4%	3%[73]	–
Clout Research (R)[74]	September 20–23, 2018	679	± 3.8%	42%	41%	–	–	–
Hoffman Research Group[75]	September 12–13, 2018	680	± 3.8%	46%	36%	4%	2%[68]	12%
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC)[76]	September 6–11, 2018	2,831	± 2.0%	41%	43%	–	–	–
Clout Research (R)[77]	July 30–31, 2018	559	± 4.1%	42%	43%	–	–	15%
Gravis Marketing[78]	July 16–17, 2018	770	± 3.5%	45%	45%	–	–	10%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]	March 19–25, 2018	2,067	± 2.2%	41%	46%	–	–	14%
DHM Research[79]	January 25–31, 2018	604	± 4.0%	46%	29%	–	–	25%
Zogby Analytics[80]	November 10–12, 2017	508	± 4.4%	39%	36%	–	–	25%
iCitizen[55]	September 13–28, 2017	645	± 3.9%	41%	40%	–	11%	8%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Sam Carpenter (R)	Other	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]	March 19–25, 2018	2,067	± 2.2%	41%	46%	–	13%
Zogby Analytics[80]	November 10–12, 2017	508	± 4.4%	38%	36%	–	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Greg Wooldridge (R)	Other	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)[54]	March 19–25, 2018	2,067	± 2.2%	42%	47%	–	11%
iCitizen[55]	September 13–28, 2017	645	± 3.9%	42%	39%	11%	7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)	Other	Undecided
iCitizen[55]	September 13–28, 2017	645	± 3.9%	40%	34%	17%	8%

Hypothetical polling

with Sam Carpenter

with Greg Wooldridge

with Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Results

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018^[81]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kate Brown (incumbent)	934,498	50.05%	−0.57%
	Republican	Knute Buehler	814,988	43.65%	+0.20%
	Independent Party	Patrick Starnes	53,392	2.86%	+0.42%
	Libertarian	Nick Chen	28,927	1.55%	−0.77%
	Constitution	Aaron Auer	21,145	1.13%	+0.13%
	Progressive	Chris Henry	11,013	0.59%	N/A
	Write-in		3,034	0.16%	-0.01%
Total votes			1,866,997	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By congressional district

Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with Oregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and Oregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader.^[82]

District	Kate Brown	Knute Buehler	Elected Representative
1st	54%	41%	Suzanne Bonamici
2nd	35%	57%	Greg Walden
3rd	69%	26%	Earl Blumenauer
4th	45%	47%	Peter DeFazio
5th	46%	48%	Kurt Schrader

By county

County	Kate Brown Democrat	Votes	Knute Buehler Republican	Votes	Patrick Starnes Independent	Votes	Nick Chen Libertarian	Votes	Aaron Auer Constitution	Votes	Chris Henry Progressive	Votes	Write-in	Votes	Total
Baker	19.0%	1,572	72.9%	6,023	4.2%	347	1.6%	132	1.5%	126	0.6%	49	0.2%	15	8,264
Benton	60.1%	26,592	33.9%	14,990	2.8%	1,225	1.6%	721	0.8%	357	0.7%	293	0.1%	53	44,231
Clackamas	45.5%	91,088	49.2%	98,468	2.4%	4,726	1.4%	2,827	0.9%	1,853	0.5%	941	0.2%	363	200,266
Clatsop	48.0%	8,909	44.7%	8,294	3.3%	616	1.6%	305	1.4%	259	0.8%	140	0.2%	35	18,558
Columbia	38.7%	9,519	52.6%	12,953	4.0%	975	1.9%	480	2.0%	481	0.7%	167	0.2%	42	24,617
Coos	33.5%	9,622	57.5%	16,520	4.4%	1,262	1.8%	505	1.8%	510	0.9%	256	0.2%	52	28,727
Crook	19.8%	2,285	73.8%	8,516	3.6%	418	1.0%	110	1.2%	140	0.4%	42	0.2%	25	11,536
Curry	35.9%	4,141	56.1%	6,474	3.8%	443	1.6%	188	1.7%	199	0.7%	75	0.1%	13	11,533
Deschutes	42.3%	40,676	52.0%	49,983	2.9%	2,764	1.4%	1,353	0.8%	766	0.5%	460	0.1%	97	96,099
Douglas	24.0%	11,824	65.8%	32,413	5.0%	2,481	1.5%	738	2.7%	1,326	0.7%	368	0.2%	88	49,238
Gilliam	22.0%	218	69.6%	691	4.6%	46	1.9%	19	1.4%	14	0.5%	5	0.0%	0	993
Grant	16.8%	649	75.9%	2,923	3.9%	151	1.2%	48	1.5%	56	0.5%	19	0.2%	7	3,853
Harney	16.5%	584	76.7%	2,722	3.6%	126	0.8%	29	1.8%	63	0.6%	20	0.1%	3	3,547
Hood River	59.9%	6,485	35.0%	3,789	2.5%	271	1.3%	136	0.7%	81	0.5%	55	0.1%	11	10,828
Jackson	41.4%	42,207	50.7%	51,623	4.1%	4,196	1.7%	1,720	1.3%	1,313	0.7%	716	0.1%	132	101,907
Jefferson	29.8%	2,635	62.3%	5,518	4.4%	388	1.3%	111	1.6%	145	0.5%	45	0.1%	10	8,852
Josephine	30.2%	12,214	60.5%	24,499	4.3%	1,735	1.9%	767	2.2%	881	0.8%	308	0.2%	66	40,470
Klamath	22.3%	6,301	67.7%	19,134	4.9%	1,371	2.3%	643	2.0%	564	0.7%	198	0.2%	45	28,256
Lake	13.4%	476	78.0%	2,774	4.4%	155	1.5%	52	2.3%	81	0.4%	14	0.1%	5	3,557
Lane	54.7%	96,841	38.2%	67,737	3.2%	5,683	1.8%	3,106	1.2%	2,173	0.8%	1,335	0.2%	297	177,172
Lincoln	52.1%	12,610	40.8%	9,884	3.4%	825	1.6%	391	1.2%	302	0.7%	164	0.2%	43	24,219
Linn	30.1%	16,461	60.5%	33,051	4.2%	2,293	1.9%	1,061	2.2%	1,204	0.8%	421	0.3%	171	54,662
Malheur	24.1%	2,159	66.9%	6,000	4.1%	364	1.7%	156	2.5%	227	0.6%	52	0.1%	12	8,970
Marion	43.5%	55,238	49.9%	63,323	2.8%	3,511	1.7%	2,100	1.4%	1,831	0.5%	650	0.3%	325	126,978
Morrow	22.5%	844	67.5%	2,534	4.3%	163	1.8%	68	3.0%	111	0.8%	29	0.1%	5	3,754
Multnomah	73.9%	279,384	22.1%	83,507	1.7%	6,309	1.2%	4,447	0.5%	1,793	0.6%	2,174	0.1%	484	378,098
Polk	41.6%	15,529	51.8%	19,341	2.9%	1,076	1.6%	589	1.3%	491	0.6%	206	0.2%	83	37,315
Sherman	19.3%	190	74.7%	736	3.5%	34	0.7%	7	1.5%	15	0.2%	2	0.1%	1	985
Tillamook	42.7%	5,616	50.3%	6,606	3.5%	464	1.2%	158	1.5%	202	0.6%	77	0.1%	19	13,142
Umatilla	29.4%	7,085	63.0%	15,178	3.7%	885	1.7%	419	1.6%	393	0.5%	117	0.1%	31	24,108
Union	24.5%	2,877	67.9%	7,983	3.8%	441	1.4%	162	1.8%	209	0.5%	60	0.2%	24	11,756
Wallowa	27.0%	1,088	66.2%	2,668	3.6%	145	1.2%	47	1.5%	61	0.5%	19	0.1%	4	4,032
Wasco	40.5%	4,604	51.4%	5,841	3.8%	427	1.8%	203	1.6%	177	0.7%	85	0.2%	20	11,357
Washington	55.5%	137,886	39.2%	97,286	2.2%	5,535	1.7%	4,229	0.8%	2,010	0.5%	1,161	0.1%	372	248,479
Wheeler	19.3%	158	72.6%	594	4.6%	38	1.8%	15	1.2%	10	0.4%	3	0.0%	0	818
Yamhill	39.1%	17,931	53.3%	24,412	3.3%	1,503	1.9%	885	1.6%	721	0.6%	287	0.2%	81	45,820

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.