2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[1]

2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout	61.29%
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Gary Johnson Party Republican Democratic–NPL Libertarian Home state New York New York New Mexico Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Bill Weld Electoral vote 3 0 0 Popular vote 216,794 93,758 21,434 Percentage 62.96% 27.23% 6.22%
County Results Precinct Results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%
President before election Barack Obama Democratic-NPL Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color

Treemap of the popular vote by county

On June 7, 2016, as part of the Democratic Party presidential primaries, North Dakota voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic nominees for president. As North Dakota does not have a voter registration system,^[2] all voters could choose to participate in this caucus. Due to a disagreement about the binding of delegates between state and national party leaders, no Republican Party primary or caucus was held. Instead, delegates were chosen at the state party convention April 1–3.^[3]

Trump won the election in North Dakota with 63.0% of the vote, making it his fourth-strongest state in the 2016 election, after West Virginia, Wyoming, and Oklahoma.^[4] Clinton received 27.2% of the vote.^[5] This makes it the largest loss by a Democrat since Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter in 1980. The state also gave North Dakota-born Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson his second-best showing with 6.2% of the vote, only behind the 9.3% vote share that he received in his home state of New Mexico.

Caucuses

Democratic caucus

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Main article: 2016 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses

North Dakota Democratic caucuses, June 7, 2016
Candidate	District delegates		State delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	253	64.21%	13	1	14
Hillary Clinton	101	25.63%	5	1	6
Uncommitted	40	10.15%	0	0	0
Total	394	100%	18	5	23
Source: [6]

Republican convention

The North Dakota Republican Party did not hold a presidential preference caucus or primary, but instead selected 28 Republican National Convention delegates unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention, which was held April 1–3, 2016.^[3] A generally pro-Cruz slate of delegates was elected to the convention.^[7] Cruz had the support of 14 delegates before he dropped out of the race. Three of them switched to Trump on May 27 along with all 13 of the uncommitted delegates giving Trump the majority of commitments and the support of 17 delegates (Trump had the support of 1 delegate before Cruz dropped out).

North Dakota Republican state convention, April 1–3, 2016

Candidate	Actual delegate count
	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	0	17	17
Ted Cruz	0	11	11
John Kasich	0	0	0
(available)	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:	0	0	0
Total:	0	28	28
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Voting history

North Dakota joined the Union in November 1889 and has participated in all elections from 1892 onwards.

Since 1900, North Dakota voted Democratic 17.24 percent of the time and Republican 82.76 percent of the time.

Since 1968, the state has always voted Republican.

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for North Dakota as of Election Day.

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times[8]	Safe R	November 6, 2016
CNN[9]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
NBC[11]	Likely R	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[12]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Fox News[13]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
ABC[14]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Results

2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota^[15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	216,794	62.96
	Democratic–NPL	Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine	93,758	27.23
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson Bill Weld	21,434	6.22
	Green	Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka	3,780	1.10
	Constitution	Darrell L. Castle Scott N. Bradley	1,833	0.53
	American Delta	Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg	364	0.11
	Write-in		6,397	1.86
Total votes			344,360	100%
	Republican hold

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Hillary Clinton Democratic-NPL		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	909	74.63%	216	17.73%	93	7.64%	693	56.90%	1,218
Barnes	3,160	59.13%	1,597	29.88%	587	10.99%	1,563	29.25%	5,344
Benson	929	46.20%	842	41.87%	240	11.93%	87	4.33%	2,011
Billings	495	81.82%	59	9.75%	51	8.43%	436	72.07%	605
Bottineau	2,494	71.38%	736	21.06%	264	7.56%	1,758	50.32%	3,494
Bowman	1,446	80.92%	227	12.70%	114	6.38%	1,219	68.22%	1,787
Burke	895	85.08%	119	11.31%	38	3.61%	776	73.77%	1,052
Burleigh	32,532	67.80%	10,881	22.68%	4,566	9.52%	21,651	45.12%	47,979
Cass	39,816	49.26%	31,361	38.80%	9,644	11.94%	8,455	10.46%	80,821
Cavalier	1,357	67.65%	476	23.73%	173	8.62%	881	43.92%	2,006
Dickey	1,667	69.26%	554	23.02%	186	7.72%	1,113	46.24%	2,407
Divide	867	71.12%	245	20.10%	107	8.78%	622	51.02%	1,219
Dunn	1,771	78.96%	358	15.96%	114	5.08%	1,413	63.00%	2,243
Eddy	791	64.26%	355	28.84%	85	6.90%	436	35.42%	1,231
Emmons	1,677	84.65%	215	10.85%	89	4.50%	1,462	73.80%	1,981
Foster	1,241	72.19%	347	20.19%	131	7.62%	894	52.00%	1,719
Golden Valley	796	83.18%	99	10.34%	62	6.48%	697	72.84%	957
Grand Forks	16,340	53.81%	10,851	35.74%	3,174	10.45%	5,489	18.07%	30,365
Grant	1,108	80.23%	185	13.40%	88	6.37%	923	66.83%	1,381
Griggs	847	66.96%	298	23.56%	120	9.48%	549	43.40%	1,265
Hettinger	1,050	81.02%	168	12.96%	78	6.02%	882	68.06%	1,296
Kidder	1,111	80.74%	179	13.01%	86	6.25%	932	67.73%	1,376
LaMoure	1,481	68.85%	502	23.34%	168	7.81%	979	45.51%	2,151
Logan	888	83.22%	114	10.68%	65	6.10%	774	72.54%	1,067
McHenry	2,050	72.70%	490	17.38%	280	9.92%	1,560	55.32%	2,820
McIntosh	1,100	76.07%	235	16.25%	111	7.68%	865	59.82%	1,446
McKenzie	3,670	78.55%	698	14.94%	304	6.51%	2,972	63.61%	4,672
McLean	3,860	72.62%	1,081	20.34%	374	7.04%	2,779	52.28%	5,315
Mercer	3,759	80.29%	621	13.26%	302	6.45%	3,138	67.03%	4,682
Morton	11,336	71.60%	3,080	19.45%	1,416	8.95%	8,256	52.15%	15,832
Mountrail	2,582	62.88%	1,220	29.71%	304	7.41%	1,362	33.17%	4,106
Nelson	1,025	59.70%	536	31.22%	156	9.08%	489	28.48%	1,717
Oliver	830	81.61%	119	11.70%	68	6.69%	711	69.91%	1,017
Pembina	2,208	70.03%	681	21.60%	264	8.37%	1,527	48.43%	3,153
Pierce	1,437	69.39%	431	20.81%	203	9.80%	1,006	48.58%	2,071
Ramsey	3,217	60.64%	1,505	28.37%	583	10.99%	1,712	32.27%	5,305
Ransom	1,210	51.29%	838	35.52%	311	13.19%	372	15.77%	2,359
Renville	993	76.80%	201	15.55%	99	7.65%	792	61.25%	1,293
Richland	4,767	62.79%	2,064	27.19%	761	10.02%	2,703	35.60%	7,592
Rolette	1,217	32.41%	2,099	55.90%	439	11.69%	-882	-23.49%	3,755
Sargent	1,088	54.48%	694	34.75%	215	10.77%	394	19.73%	1,997
Sheridan	650	82.59%	95	12.07%	42	5.34%	555	70.52%	787
Sioux	260	21.10%	758	61.53%	214	17.37%	-498	-40.43%	1,232
Slope	362	84.19%	43	10.00%	25	5.81%	319	74.19%	430
Stark	9,755	79.17%	1,753	14.23%	814	6.60%	8,002	64.94%	12,322
Steele	538	53.85%	361	36.14%	100	10.01%	177	17.71%	999
Stutsman	6,718	66.15%	2,498	24.60%	939	9.25%	4,220	41.55%	10,155
Towner	733	63.35%	305	26.36%	119	10.29%	428	36.99%	1,157
Traill	2,265	57.59%	1,241	31.55%	427	10.86%	1,024	26.04%	3,933
Walsh	2,995	64.60%	1,167	25.17%	474	10.23%	1,828	39.43%	4,636
Ward	18,636	67.98%	5,806	21.18%	2,970	10.84%	12,830	46.80%	27,412
Wells	1,796	75.37%	419	17.58%	168	7.05%	1,377	57.79%	2,383
Williams	10,069	78.62%	1,735	13.55%	1,003	7.83%	8,334	65.07%	12,807
Totals	216,794	62.96%	93,758	27.23%	33,808	9.81%	123,036	35.73%	344,360

Results by county were as follows.^[16][17]

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

^[18]

• Benson (largest CDP: Fort Totten)
• Ransom (largest city: Lisbon)
• Sargent (largest city: Gwinner)
• Steele (largest city: Finley)

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is an at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
At-large	62.96%	27.23%	Kevin Cramer

Analysis

Republican nominee Donald Trump won North Dakota in a 36-percentage-point victory over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, thus carrying the state's 3 electoral votes.^[19] Like many neighboring majority-white, largely rural Great Plains and prairie states, North Dakota has not supported a Democratic candidate for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

North Dakota politics are dominated by the farm, with a largely white and older populace who are socially conservative. Though the state's farming population has briefly flirted with populism, that movement is now mostly faded from North Dakota politics, as farms in North Dakota are no longer tilled by solitary yeoman and are no longer family-owned as much, and are replaced by agribusinesses.^[20]

In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as its economy is increasingly fueled by the North Dakota oil boom and its population grows suspect of the environmental movement championed by Democrats. The main oil boom has taken place in the counties west and northwest of Bismarck, where Donald Trump won sometimes north of 80% of the vote.^[20]

Donald Trump won in Grand Forks County which contains the city of Grand Forks, in Cass County which contains the city of Fargo, and in Burliegh County which contains the capital city of Bismarck. He also swept most of the rural and deeply conservative counties of the state, sometimes taking more than 80% of the vote in a county. Clinton won resoundingly in Sioux County, which is majority Native American and is the site of the Dakota Access Pipeline Protest by its inhabitants, the Sioux Indian tribe.

See also

• United States presidential elections in North Dakota
• First presidency of Donald Trump
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

References

1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
2. Jaeger, Alvin. "North Dakota...The Only State Without Voter Registration" (PDF).
3. Nowatzki, Mike. "With ND Republicans unable to cast votes for presidential nominee, Cramer launches online straw poll". Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
4. "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
5. "North Dakota Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 2017.
6. The Green Papers
7. "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2016".
8. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
9. "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
10. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
11. Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
12. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
13. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
14. "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
15. North Dakota Secretary of State (November 18, 2016). "Official 2016 General Election Results – Statewide". Retrieved November 14, 2021.
16. "Secretary of State - Election Night Results". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved June 18, 2017.
17. "Secretary of State - Voter Turnout". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved June 18, 2017.
18. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
19. "North Dakota Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
20. Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2016.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions