2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →

Nominee Roy Blunt Jason Kander Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,378,458 1,300,200 Percentage 49.18% 46.39%

County results Congressional district results Township results Precinct results Blunt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Kander:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes

U.S. senator before election Roy Blunt Republican Elected U.S. Senator Roy Blunt Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.^[1][2] Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state. This is also the closest a Democrat has come to winning this seat since 1980.

Republican primary

Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.^[3]

Candidates

Declared

• Roy Blunt, incumbent senator since 2011^[1][4]
• Ryan Luethy, financial services worker^[5]
• Bernie Mowinski, retired army sergeant and perennial candidate^[6]
• Kristi Nichols, sales manager, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[6]

Withdrew

• Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)^[6][7][8]

Declined

• Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative from 2001 to 2013 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012^[9][10]
• John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)^[11]
• John Lamping, former state senator^[12]

Endorsements

Roy Blunt

Presidents

• George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States^[13]

U.S. Senators

• John Cornyn, Texas; Senate Majority Whip^[14]
• Ted Cruz, Texas; 2016 presidential candidate^[14]

U.S. Representatives

• Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House and U.S. Representative (WI-01)^[15]

Individuals

• John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations^[16]
• Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 California nominee for U.S. Senate, and 2016 presidential candidate^[17]

Organizations

• National Federation of Independent Business^[18]
• National Rifle Association of America^[19]
• United States Chamber of Commerce^[20]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt	Kristi Nichols	Bernie Mowinski	Ryan Luethy	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[21]	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	66%	9%	5%	1%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt	John Brunner	Other	Undecided
Remington Research Group[22]	January 2015	1,355	± ?	60%	40%	—	—
Remington Research Group[23]	February 2–3, 2015	747	3.6%	50%	19%	—	32%

Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county:

  Blunt

•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

Republican primary results^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roy Blunt (incumbent)	481,444	72.55%
	Republican	Kristi Nichols	134,025	20.20%
	Republican	Ryan Luethy	29,328	4.42%
	Republican	Bernie Mowinski	18,789	2.83%
Total votes			663,586	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Cori Bush, pastor, nurse and co-director of the Truth Telling Project^[25][26]
• Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri since 2013^[27][28]
• Robert Mack, military veteran^[29]
• Chief Wana Dubie, marijuana activist^[30][31]

Declined

• Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri since 2009^[32]
• Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County prosecuting attorney and former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party^[33][34]
• Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri since 2009^[35][36]

Endorsements

Jason Kander

Vice presidents

• Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States^[37]

Governors

• Jay Nixon, Missouri^[38]

U.S. Senators

• Al Franken, Minnesota^[39]
• Martin Heinrich, New Mexico^[40]
• Claire McCaskill, Missouri^[38]
• Harry Reid, Nevada and Senate Minority Leader^[41]
• Jon Tester, Montana^[42]
• Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts^[43]

U.S. Representatives

• Emanuel Cleaver II, Missouri^[38]

Statewide Officials

• Chris Koster, Missouri Attorney General and candidate for Governor of Missouri^[38]
• Clint Zweifel, Missouri State Treasurer^[38]

Organizations

• Americans for Responsible Solutions^[44]
• Daily Kos^[45]
• League of Conservation Voters^[46]
• Planned Parenthood^[47]
• Sierra Club^[48]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jason Kander	Cori Bush	Robert Mack	Chief Wana Dubie	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[21]	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	67%	7%	4%	2%	20%

Results

Results by county:

  Kander

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

Democratic primary results^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jason Kander	223,492	69.87%
	Democratic	Cori Bush	42,453	13.27%
	Democratic	Chief Wana Dubie	30,432	9.51%
	Democratic	Robert Mack	23,509	7.35%
Total votes			319,886	100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jonathan Dine, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012^[6]
• Herschel Young^[49][50]

Results

Libertarian primary results^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	2,002	54.90%
	Libertarian	Herschel Young	1,642	45.06%
Total votes			3,644	100.00%

Constitution primary

Candidates

Declared

• Fred Ryman^[6]

Results

Constitution primary results^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Constitution	Fred Ryman	545	100.00%
Total votes			545	100.00%

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

• Johnathan McFarland^[51][52]

Write-in

• Gina Bufe^[53]
• Patrick Lee^[54][55][56]

General election

Debates

Date	Host	Moderator	Link(s)	Participants
Key:  P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
				Roy Blunt	Jonathan Dine	Jason Kander	Jonathan McFarland	Fred Ryman
September 30, 2016	Associated Press	David Lieb	[57]	P	P	P	P	P

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[58]	Tossup	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[59]	Lean R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[60]	Tossup	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[61]	Lean R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[62]	Tossup	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt (R)	Jason Kander (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey[63]	November 1–7, 2016	1,368	± 4.6%	44%	51%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey[64]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,119	± 4.6%	43%	51%	—	6%
Emerson College[65]	November 4–5, 2016	750	± 3.5%	45%	46%	5%	4%
SurveyMonkey[66]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	879	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Clarity Campaign Labs[67]	November 1–2, 2016	1,036	± 3.1%	47%	45%	—	8%
SurveyMonkey[68]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	774	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling[69]	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,083	± 3.0%	46%	44%	—	9%
Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[70]	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,722	± 2.4%	48%	44%	3%[71]	5%
DFM Research[72]	October 27 – November 1, 2016	508	± 4.4%	41%	41%	9%	9%
SurveyMonkey[73]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	649	± 4.6%	46%	50%	—	4%
Emerson College[74]	October 28–31, 2016	650	± 3.8%	45%	45%	6%	4%
Monmouth University[75]	October 28–31, 2016	405	± 4.9%	47%	46%	3%	5%
SurveyMonkey[76]	October 25–31, 2016	671	± 4.6%	45%	51%	—	4%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)[77]	October 27–28, 2016	1,698	± 2.4%	47%	44%	4%[78]	5%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[79]	October 24–26, 2016	625	± 4.0%	47%	46%	2%	5%
Emerson College[80]	October 17–19, 2016	600	± 3.9%	44%	44%	4%	8%
Google Consumer Surveys[81]	October 12–14, 2016	521	± 4.2%	45%	52%	—	3%
Monmouth University[82]	October 9–11, 2016	406	± 4.9%	46%	44%	3%[83]	7%
Emerson College[84]	September 9–13, 2016	600	± 3.6%	40%	42%	10%	8%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[85]	September 1–2, 2016	1,275	± 3.0%	47%	40%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling[86]	August 26–27, 2016	1,055	± 3.0%	47%	43%	—	10%
Monmouth University[87]	August 19–22, 2016	401	± 4.9%	48%	43%	3%[83]	7%
Remington Research Group (R)[88]	August 5–6, 2016	1,280	± 3.0%	47%	40%	6%[89]	7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[90]	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	47%	43%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling[91]	July 11–12, 2016	959	± 3.2%	41%	38%	—	21%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[92]	March 25–26, 2016	927	± 3.2%	44%	37%	—	19%
DFM Research[93]	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	49%	35%	2%	14%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[94]	October 30–31, 2015	783	± 3.5%	43%	33%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling[95]	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	40%	35%	—	25%
Remington Research Group (R)[96]	February 19, 2015	957	± 3.2%	49%	36%	—	14%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Missouri^[97]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roy Blunt (incumbent)	1,378,458	49.18%	−5.05%
	Democratic	Jason Kander	1,300,200	46.39%	+5.76%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	67,738	2.42%	−0.60%
	Green	Johnathan McFarland	30,743	1.10%	N/A
	Constitution	Fred Ryman	25,407	0.91%	−1.22%
	Write-in		95	0.03%	N/A
Total votes			2,802,641	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Boone (Largest city: Columbia)
• Clay (Largest city: Kansas City^[a])
• Platte (Largest city: Kansas City^[a])

By congressional district

Blunt won 6 of 8 congressional districts.^[98]

District	Blunt	Kander	Representative
1st	17%	79%	Lacy Clay
2nd	48.3%	48.2%	Ann Wagner
3rd	55%	40%	Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th	56%	39%	Vicky Hartzler
5th	34%	61%	Emanuel Cleaver
6th	54%	41%	Sam Graves
7th	64%	32%	Billy Long
8th	63%	33%	Jason Smith

See also

• United States Senate elections, 2016

Notes

1. Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.