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The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.
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 Blunt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kander: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.[1][2] Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state. This is also the closest a Democrat has come to winning this seat since 1980.
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Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.[3]
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
- Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)[6][7][8]
Declined
- Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative from 2001 to 2013 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[9][10]
- John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)[11]
- John Lamping, former state senator[12]
Endorsements
Roy Blunt
Presidents
U.S. Senators
- John Cornyn, Texas; Senate Majority Whip[14]
- Ted Cruz, Texas; 2016 presidential candidate[14]
U.S. Representatives
- Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House and U.S. Representative (WI-01)[15]
Individuals
- John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[16]
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 California nominee for U.S. Senate, and 2016 presidential candidate[17]
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Blunt |
Kristi Nichols |
Bernie Mowinski |
Ryan Luethy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[21] | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 66% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 19% |
Hypothetical polling
Results
Blunt
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roy Blunt (incumbent) | 481,444 | 72.55% | |
| Republican | Kristi Nichols | 134,025 | 20.20% | |
| Republican | Ryan Luethy | 29,328 | 4.42% | |
| Republican | Bernie Mowinski | 18,789 | 2.83% | |
| Total votes | 663,586 | 100.00% | ||
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Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri since 2009[32]
- Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County prosecuting attorney and former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party[33][34]
- Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri since 2009[35][36]
Endorsements
Jason Kander
Vice presidents
Governors
U.S. Senators
- Al Franken, Minnesota[39]
- Martin Heinrich, New Mexico[40]
- Claire McCaskill, Missouri[38]
- Harry Reid, Nevada and Senate Minority Leader[41]
- Jon Tester, Montana[42]
- Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts[43]
U.S. Representatives
- Emanuel Cleaver II, Missouri[38]
Statewide Officials
- Chris Koster, Missouri Attorney General and candidate for Governor of Missouri[38]
- Clint Zweifel, Missouri State Treasurer[38]
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jason Kander |
Cori Bush |
Robert Mack |
Chief Wana Dubie |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[21] | July 23–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 67% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 20% |
Results
Kander
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 223,492 | 69.87% | |
| Democratic | Cori Bush | 42,453 | 13.27% | |
| Democratic | Chief Wana Dubie | 30,432 | 9.51% | |
| Democratic | Robert Mack | 23,509 | 7.35% | |
| Total votes | 319,886 | 100.00% | ||
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Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 2,002 | 54.90% | |
| Libertarian | Herschel Young | 1,642 | 45.06% | |
| Total votes | 3,644 | 100.00% | ||
Constitution primary
Candidates
Declared
- Fred Ryman[6]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 545 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 545 | 100.00% | ||
Green Party
Candidates
Declared
Write-in
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Debates
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link(s) | Participants | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||||
| Roy Blunt |
Jonathan Dine |
Jason Kander |
Jonathan McFarland |
Fred Ryman | ||||
| September 30, 2016 | Associated Press | David Lieb | [57] | P | P | P | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[58] | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[59] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[60] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[61] | Lean R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[62] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Roy Blunt (R) |
Jason Kander (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[63] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,368 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[64] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,119 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 51% | — | 6% |
| Emerson College[65] | November 4–5, 2016 | 750 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[66] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 879 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs[67] | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,036 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey[68] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 774 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 1,083 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[70] | October 31 – November 1, 2016 | 1,722 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 44% | 3%[71] | 5% |
| DFM Research[72] | October 27 – November 1, 2016 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | 9% | 9% |
| SurveyMonkey[73] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 649 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | 4% |
| Emerson College[74] | October 28–31, 2016 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 45% | 6% | 4% |
| Monmouth University[75] | October 28–31, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | 3% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[76] | October 25–31, 2016 | 671 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 51% | — | 4% |
| Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)[77] | October 27–28, 2016 | 1,698 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 44% | 4%[78] | 5% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[79] | October 24–26, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 5% |
| Emerson College[80] | October 17–19, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 4% | 8% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[81] | October 12–14, 2016 | 521 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 52% | — | 3% |
| Monmouth University[82] | October 9–11, 2016 | 406 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | 3%[83] | 7% |
| Emerson College[84] | September 9–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 10% | 8% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[85] | September 1–2, 2016 | 1,275 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[86] | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,055 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Monmouth University[87] | August 19–22, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | 3%[83] | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[88] | August 5–6, 2016 | 1,280 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 6%[89] | 7% |
| St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[90] | July 23–24, 2016 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[91] | July 11–12, 2016 | 959 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[92] | March 25–26, 2016 | 927 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 37% | — | 19% |
| DFM Research[93] | March 17–24, 2016 | 674 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 35% | 2% | 14% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[94] | October 30–31, 2015 | 783 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 33% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[95] | August 7–9, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | — | 25% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[96] | February 19, 2015 | 957 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 36% | — | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Roy Blunt (incumbent) | 1,378,458 | 49.18% | −5.05% | |
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 1,300,200 | 46.39% | +5.76% | |
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 67,738 | 2.42% | −0.60% | |
| Green | Johnathan McFarland | 30,743 | 1.10% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 25,407 | 0.91% | −1.22% | |
| Write-in | 95 | 0.03% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,802,641 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Blunt won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[98]
| District | Blunt | Kander | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 17% | 79% | Lacy Clay |
| 2nd | 48.3% | 48.2% | Ann Wagner |
| 3rd | 55% | 40% | Blaine Luetkemeyer |
| 4th | 56% | 39% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 34% | 61% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 54% | 41% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 64% | 32% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 63% | 33% | Jason Smith |
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- Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.
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