2015 Prince Edward Island general election

The 2015 Prince Edward Island general election was held May 4, 2015, to elect members of the 65th General Assembly of Prince Edward Island.^[2] Under amendments passed by the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island in 2008, Prince Edward Island elections are usually held on the first Monday of October in the fourth calendar year, unless it is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Prince Edward Island due to a motion of no confidence, or at the request of the premier. The current government had hinted that an election would be held "before Mother's Day" 2015, and such a dissolution would avoid any conflicts with the next federal election, expected to be held in October 2015.

2015 Prince Edward Island general election

← 2011 May 4, 2015 (2015-05-04) 2019 →
All 27 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island 14 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	82.10%[1]
First party Second party   Leader Wade MacLauchlan Rob Lantz Party Liberal Progressive Conservative Leader since February 21, 2015 February 28, 2015 Leader's seat York-Oyster Bed Ran in Charlottetown-Brighton (lost) Last election 22 seats, 51.39% 5 seats, 40.18% Seats before 20 3 Seats won 18 8 Seat change 2 5 Popular vote 33,481 30,663 Percentage 40.83% 37.39% Swing 10.56pp 2.79pp   Third party Fourth party   Leader Peter Bevan-Baker Michael Redmond Party Green New Democratic Leader since November 3, 2012 October 13, 2012 Leader's seat Kellys Cross-Cumberland Ran in Montague-Kilmuir (lost) Last election 0 seats, 4.36% 0 seats, 3.16% Seats before 0 0 Seats won 1 0 Seat change 1 Popular vote 8,857 8,997 Percentage 10.81% 10.97% Swing 6.45pp 7.81pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via plurality results by each riding.
Premier before election Wade MacLauchlan Liberal Premier after election Wade MacLauchlan Liberal

The governing Liberals were elected to a third consecutive majority government under Premier Wade MacLauchlan, while the Progressive Conservatives made slight gains despite party leader Rob Lantz failing to win election in Charlottetown-Brighton. The Green Party, meanwhile, won its first seat in the legislature, with leader Peter Bevan-Baker elected in Kellys Cross-Cumberland.^[3] The New Democratic Party was shut out.

Results

↓

18	8	1
Liberal	Progressive Conservative	GP

Results of the election by polling division

Summary of the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island election results

Party		Party leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2011	Dissol.	2015	Change	#	%	Change
	Liberal	Wade MacLauchlan	27	22	20	18	−4	33,481	40.83%	−10.55%
	Progressive Conservative	Rob Lantz	27	5	3	8	+3	30,663	37.39%	−2.77%
	Green	Peter Bevan-Baker	24	0	0	1	+1	8,857	10.81%	+6.45%
	New Democratic	Michael Redmond	27	0	0	0		8,997	10.97%	+7.81%
	Independent			0	1	0
	Vacant				3	-	-
Total			105	27	27	27		81,998

Popular vote Liberal   40.83% PC   37.39% New Democratic   10.97% Green   10.81%

Seats summary Liberal   66.67% PC   29.63% Green   3.70%

Synopsis of results

2015 PEI general election - synopsis of riding results^{[a 1]}

Riding	#	Federal Riding	2011		Winning party						Turnout [a 2]	Votes[a 3]
					Party		Votes	Share	Margin #	Margin %		Lib	PC	Green	NDP	Total
Alberton-Roseville	26	EGM		Lib		Lib	1,569	53.7%	403	13.8%	85.6%	1,569	1,166	–	188	2,923
Belfast-Murray River	4	CAR		Lib		PC	1,203	45.1%	108	4.0%	85.5%	1,095	1,203	152	216	2,666
Borden-Kinkora	19	MPQ		Lib		PC	1,597	47.1%	443	13.1%	82.7%	1,154	1,597	511	126	3,388
Charlottetown-Brighton[a 4]	13	CHA		Lib		Lib	1,054	39.0%	22	0.8%	85.6%	1,054	1,032	352	265	2,703
Charlottetown-Lewis Point	14	CHA		Lib		Lib	1,040	34.3%	109	3.6%	79.9%	1,040	821	244	931	3,036
Charlottetown-Parkdale	11	CHA		Lib		Lib	1,166	43.7%	467	17.5%	79.9%	1,166	699	511	292	2,668
Charlottetown-Sherwood	10	CHA		Lib		Lib	1,425	45.8%	394	12.7%	81.8%	1,425	1,031	295	360	3,111
Charlottetown-Victoria Park	12	CHA		Lib		Lib	955	39.4%	289	11.9%	80.7%	955	666	456	348	2,425
Cornwall-Meadowbank	16	MPQ		Lib		Lib	1,444	46.3%	388	12.5%	81.5%	1,444	1,056	377	243	3,120
Evangeline-Miscouche	24	EGM		Lib		Lib	1,419	62.6%	833	25.8%	85.9%	1,419	586	125	138	2,268
Georgetown-St. Peters	2	CAR		PC		PC	1,448	48.0%	278	9.2%	84.8%	1,170	1,448	145	256	3,019
Kellys Cross-Cumberland	17	MPQ		Lib		Grn	2,077	54.8%	1,031	27.2%	85.2%	1,046	609	2,077	58	3,790
Kensington-Malpeque	20	MPQ		Lib		PC	1,984	54.3%	951	26.0%	82.3%	1,033	1,984	374	264	3,655
Montague-Kilmuir	3	CAR		Lib		Lib	1,060	41.8%	275	10.8%	82.5%	1,060	785	106	585	2,536
Morell-Mermaid	7	CAR		PC		PC	1,501	50.0%	387	12.9%	82.8%	1,114	1,501	177	211	3,004
O'Leary-Inverness	25	EGM		Lib		Lib	1,310	48.8%	247	8.9%	81.2%	1,310	1,063	–	311	2,684
Rustico-Emerald	18	MPQ		Lib		PC	1,585	47.2%	433	12.9%	85.7%	1,152	1,585	325	294	3,356
Souris-Elmira	1	CAR		PC		PC	1,179	44.4%	228	8.6%	86.2%	951	1,179	–	528	2,658
Stratford-Kinlock	6	CAR		PC		PC	2,155	50.3%	702	16.4%	81.4%	1,453	2,155	330	350	4,288
Summerside-St. Eleanors	22	EGM		Lib		Lib	1,246	41.2%	148	4.9%	75.6%	1,246	1,098	321	358	3,023
Summerside-Wilmot	21	EGM		Lib		Lib	1,135	39.4%	30	1.0%	74.8%	1,135	1,105	285	353	2,878
Tignish-Palmer Road	27	EGM		PC		Lib	1,486	58.2%	668	26.1%	87.6%	1,486	818	167	81	2,552
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park	8	CHA		Lib		Lib	1,354	45.7%	528	17.9%	76.6%	1,354	826	237	549	2,966
Tyne Valley-Linkletter	23	EGM		Lib		Lib	1,147	43.0%	337	12.7%	77.8%	1,147	810	240	473	2,670
Vernon River-Stratford	5	CAR		Lib		Lib	1,173	41.3%	–	–	83.3%	1,173	1,173	234	258	2,838
West Royalty-Springvale	15	CHA		Lib		Lib	1,389	37.6%	59	1.6%	82.1%	1,389	1,330	462	516	3,697
York-Oyster Bed	9	MPQ		Lib		Lib	1,938	47.7%	600	14.8%	81.1%	1,938	1,338	347	442	4,065

1. "Section 4 - Summary of Election Results". Report of the Chief Electoral Officer for the Provincial General Election - May 4, 2015 (PDF). Elections Prince Edward Island. 2015. pp. 37, 40–93. {{cite book}}: |website= ignored (help)
2. including spoilt ballots
3. minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the national popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
4. also an open seat

  = results as certified in a judicial recount

  = open seat

  = turnout is above provincial average

  = incumbent re-elected in same riding

  = incumbent changed allegiance

  = other incumbent renominated

  = tied for first place - settled by coin toss

Resulting composition of the 65th General Assembly of Prince Edward Island

Source		Party
		Lib	PC	Grn	Total
Seats retained	Incumbents returned	12	3		15
	Incumbent returned on coin toss	1			1
	Open seats held	4	1		5
Seats changing hands	Incumbents defeated		1	1	2
	Open seats gained		3		3
	Incumbent changing affiliation	1			1
Total		18	8	1	27

Results by region

Regional summary of results (2015)

Region	Seats won			Vote share (%)				Change (pp)
	Lib	PC	Grn	Lib	PC	Grn	NDP	Lib	PC	Grn	NDP	Major swing
Cardigan	2	5	–	38.16	44.95	5.45	11.44	-4.38	-4.73	+2.13	+9.38	→  6.88
Malpeque	2	3	1	36.33	38.21	18.76	6.69	-16.54	+0.11	+13.95	+2.92	→  15.25
Charlottetown	7	–	–	40.69	31.08	12.41	15.82	-13.62	-0.08	+5.01	+8.85	→  11.24
Egmont	7	–	–	49.00	34.97	6.01	10.01	-8.01	-3.92	+3.27	+9.18	→  8.60
Total	18	8	1	40.83	37.39	10.81	10.98	-10.55	-2.77	+6.45	+7.82	→  9.19

Timeline

2011

• October 3: The Prince Edward Island Liberal Party under Robert Ghiz is re-elected with a majority government in the 64th Prince Edward Island general election.

2012

• October 13: The New Democratic Party elects Michael Redmond as party leader.^[4]
• November 3: The Green Party elects Peter Bevan-Baker as party leader^[5]
• December 5: Progressive Conservative leader Olive Crane announces her intention to resign as party leader in January 2013 after party members narrowly vote against having a leadership review. Crane further announces that she will stay on as Leader of the Opposition.^[6]

2013

• January 30: Olive Crane resigns as Leader of the Opposition. The Progressive Conservative caucus names Tignish-Palmer Road MLA Hal Perry, a candidate for the interim leadership, as Leader of the Opposition.^[7][8]
• January 31: Olive Crane resigns as Progressive Conservative leader. Georgetown-St. Peters MLA Steven Myers is elected interim PC leader over Leader of the Opposition and Tignish-Palmer Road MLA Hal Perry. Perry initially announces that he will remain Leader of the Opposition, despite Myers' urging that the party leader should hold both positions.^[9]
• February 11: Tignish-Palmer Road MLA Hal Perry steps down as Leader of the Opposition, citing internal divisions within the Progressive Conservative Party.^[10] Interim PC leader and Georgetown-St. Peters MLA Steven Myers is subsequently named Leader of the Opposition.
• October 3: In what is believed to be the first instance of a sitting MLA crossing the floor, Tignish-Palmer Road MLA Hal Perry leaves the Progressive Conservatives to join the Liberals, citing his concerns with the federal Conservative governments changes to employment insurance.^[11]
• October 4: Morell-Mermaid MLA and former Progressive Conservative leader Olive Crane is kicked out of the party. Crane subsequently announces she will sit as an independent.^[12]

2014

• November 13: Robert Ghiz announces he will be resigning as Premier in early 2015 as soon as the Prince Edward Island Liberal Party elects a new leader.^[13]

2015

• February 21: The Prince Edward Island Liberal Party held its leadership election. As the sole candidate nominated, Wade MacLauchlan was acclaimed the new leader and incoming premier.^[14]
• February 23: Robert Ghiz resigns as Premier. Wade MacLauchlan is appointed and sworn in as the new Premier.^[15] Later that day, Ghiz, Wes Sheridan, and Robert Vessey resign as MLAs, triggering potential by-elections in their former seats (Charlottetown-Brighton, Kensington-Malpeque, and York-Oyster Bed, respectively).^[16]
• February 28: At the party's leadership election, Rob Lantz is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island.^[17]
• April 6: After being nominated as the Liberal candidate for York-Oyster Bed, Premier Wade MacLauchlan dropped the writ, calling for an election on May 4, 2015.
• April 10: The Island Party drops out of the campaign, due to not having enough candidates ^[18]
• April 27: Party leaders' first televised debate, held in Summerside.^[19]
• April 30: A second televised debate was held for the party leaders, in Charlottetown.^[20]
• May 4: Election results - The Liberals win a third consecutive majority government, with a reduced number of 18 seats. The Progressive Conservatives remain as the official opposition, with an increase to 8 seats. The Greens make Prince Edward Island political history, winning their first seat.

Opinion polls

Voting intentions since the 2011 election.

Polling Firm	Last date of polling	Link	Liberal	PC	Green	NDP	Island	Other
Corporate Research Associates	April 23, 2015	HTML	44	35	6	15
Abingdon Research	April 20, 2015	PDF	43	27	12	18
Corporate Research Associates	February 28, 2015	PDF	58	26	4	12		0
Corporate Research Associates	November 25, 2014	PDF	50	23	11	15	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	September 1, 2014	PDF	48	28	7	16	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	May 22, 2014	PDF	53	23	3	21	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	February 27, 2014	PDF	53	17	7	22	0	1
Corporate Research Associates	November 27, 2013	PDF	49	17	7	26	0	1
Corporate Research Associates	August 28, 2013	PDF	42	23	3	32	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	May 28, 2013	PDF	52	22	5	21	0	1
Corporate Research Associates	March 2, 2013	PDF	51	16	7	26	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	December 1, 2012	PDF	45	28	5	22	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	August 31, 2012	PDF	42	32	8	18	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	June 4, 2012	PDF	47	26	8	18	1	1
Corporate Research Associates	February 26, 2012	PDF	50	33	5	11	0	0
Corporate Research Associates	November 29, 2011	PDF	53	34	4	9	0	0
2011 election	October 3, 2011		51.38	40.16	4.36	3.16	0.91	0.02

Results

• Candidates' names appear as recorded by Elections PEI
• Party leaders' names are in bold; cabinet ministers' names are in italics.

Cardigan

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		Green		NDP
4. Belfast-Murray River		Charlie McGeoghegan 1,095 - 41.1%		Darlene Compton 1,203 - 45.1%		Jordan MacPhee 152 - 5.7%		Alan Hicken 216 - 8.1%		Charlie McGeoghegan
2. Georgetown-St. Peters		Russ Stewart 1,170 - 38.8%		Steven Myers 1,448 - 48.0%		Heather Gallant 145 - 4.8%		Nathan Bushey 256 - 8.5%		Steven Myers
3. Montague-Kilmuir		Allen Roach 1,060 - 41.8%		Andrew Daggett 785 - 31.0%		Jason Furness 106 - 4.2%		Mike Redmond 585 - 23.1%		Allen Roach
7. Morell-Mermaid		Daniel MacDonald 1,114 - 37.1%		Sidney MacEwen 1,501 - 50.0%		Meaghan Lister 177 - 5.9%		Edith Perry 211 - 7.0%		Olive Crane†
1. Souris-Elmira		Tommy Kickham 951 - 35.8%		Colin LaVie 1,179 - 44.4%				Susan Birt 528 - 19.9%		Colin LaVie
6. Stratford-Kinlock		David Dunphy 1,453 - 33.9%		James Aylward 2,155 - 50.3%		Samantha Saunders 330 - 7.7%		Chris van Ouwerkerk 350 - 8.2%		James Aylward
5. Vernon River-Stratford*		Alan McIsaac* 1,173 - 41.3%		Mary Ellen McInnis* 1,173 - 41.3%		Nicholas Graveline 234 - 8.2%		Kathleen Romans 258 - 9.1%		Alan McIsaac

• This riding vote count resulted in a tie between McIsaac and McInnis. As a result, a coin toss was held, which determined McIsaac, the Liberal candidate, as the winner.^[21]

Malpeque

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		Green		NDP
19. Borden-Kinkora		Ramona Roberts 1,154 - 34.1%		Jamie Fox 1,597 - 47.1%		Ranald MacFarlane 511 - 15.1%		Aleida Tweten 126 - 3.7%		George Webster†
16. Cornwall-Meadowbank		Heath MacDonald 1,444 - 46.3%		Michael Drake 1,056 - 33.8%		Rosalyn Abbott 377 - 12.1%		Jennifer Coughlin 243 - 7.8%		Ron MacKinley†
17. Kellys Cross-Cumberland		Valerie Docherty 1,046 - 27.6%		Randy Robar 609 - 16.1%		Peter Bevan-Baker 2,077 - 54.8%		Jesse Cousins 58 - 1.5%		Valerie Docherty
20. Kensington-Malpeque		Paul Montgomery 1,033 - 28.3%		Matthew MacKay 1,984 - 54.3%		Lynne Lund 374 - 10.2%		Joseph Larkin 264 - 7.2%		Vacant
18. Rustico-Emerald		Bertha Campbell 1,152 - 34.3%		Brad Trivers 1,585 - 47.2%		Marianne Janowicz 325 - 9.7%		Leah-Jane Hayward 294 - 8.8%		Carolyn Bertram†
9. York-Oyster Bed		Wade MacLauchlan 1,938 - 47.7%		Jim "Benson" Carragher 1,338 - 32.9%		Thane Bernard 347 - 8.5%		Gordon Gay 442 - 10.9%		Vacant

Charlottetown

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		Green		NDP
13. Charlottetown-Brighton		Jordan Brown 1,054 - 39.0%		Rob Lantz 1,032 - 38.2%		Derrick Biso 352 - 13.0%		Bob MacLean 265 - 9.8%		Vacant
14. Charlottetown-Lewis Point		Kathleen Casey 1,040 - 34.3%		Dianne Young 821 - 27.0%		Doug Millington 244 - 8.0%		Gord McNeilly 931 - 30.7%		Kathleen Casey
11. Charlottetown-Parkdale		Doug Currie 1,166 - 43.7%		Lynn MacLaren 699 - 26.2%		Becka Viau 511 - 19.2%		Andrew Watts 292 - 10.9%		Doug Currie
10. Charlottetown-Sherwood		Robert Mitchell 1,425 - 45.8%		Mike Gillis 1,031 - 33.1%		Mitchell Gallant 295 - 9.5%		Karalee McAskill 360 - 11.6%		Robert Mitchell
12. Charlottetown-Victoria Park		Richard Brown 955 - 39.4%		Joey Kitson 666 - 27.5%		Darcie Lanthier 456 - 18.8%		Chris Clay 348 - 14.4%		Richard Brown
8. Tracadie-Hillsborough Park		Buck Watts 1,354 - 45.7%		Darren Creamer 826 - 27.8%		Isaac Williams 237 - 8.0%		Jason Murray 549 - 18.5%		Buck Watts
15. West Royalty-Springvale		Bush Dumville 1,389 - 37.6%		Linda Clements 1,330 - 36.0%		Charles Sanderson 462 - 12.5%		Peter Meggs 516 - 14.0%		Bush Dumville

Egmont

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
	Liberal		PC		Green		NDP
26. Alberton-Roseville		Pat Murphy 1,569 - 53.7%		John Griffin 1,166 - 39.9%				Orville Lewis 188 - 6.4%		Pat Murphy
24. Evangeline-Miscouche		Sonny Gallant 1,419 - 62.6%		Debbie Montgomery 586 - 25.8%		Jordan Cameron 125 - 5.5%		Grant Gallant 138 - 6.1%		Sonny Gallant
25. O'Leary-Inverness		Robert Henderson 1,310 - 48.8%		Daniel MacDonald 1,063 - 39.6%				Billy Mackendrick 311 - 11.6%		Robert Henderson
22. Summerside-St. Eleanors		Tina Mundy 1,246 - 41.2%		Major Stewart 1,098 - 36.3%		Caleb Adams 321 - 10.6%		Olivia Wood 358 - 11.8%		Gerard Greenan†
21. Summerside-Wilmot		Janice Sherry 1,135 - 39.4%		Brian Ramsay 1,105 - 38.4%		Donald MacFadzen-Reid 285 - 9.9%		Scott Gaudet 353 - 12.3%		Janice Sherry
27. Tignish-Palmer Road		Hal Perry 1,486 - 58.2%		Joseph Profit 818 - 32.1%		Malcolm Pitre 167 - 6.5%		John A'Hearn 81 - 3.2%		Hal Perry
23. Tyne Valley-Linkletter		Paula Biggar 1,147 - 43.0%		Ryan Williams 810 - 30.3%		Shelagh Young 240 - 9.0%		Jacqueline Tuplin 473 - 17.7%		Paula Biggar