2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota

The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other United States Senate elections, United States House of Representatives elections, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fifth term.

2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota

← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout	60.6% (voting eligible)[1]
Nominee Heidi Heitkamp Rick Berg Party Democratic–NPL Republican Popular vote 161,337 158,401 Percentage 50.2% 49.3%
County results State senate district results Heitkamp:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90% Berg:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election Kent Conrad Democratic–NPL Elected U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp Democratic–NPL

Though each party endorses a single candidate in state conventions in the spring, ballot access for the general election was determined in a primary election held on June 12, 2012.^[2]

Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic-NPL former North Dakota Attorney General, won the open seat over Republican Rick Berg, North Dakota's at-large U.S. Representative, by a margin of 0.9%.^[3] Heitkamp outperformed President Barack Obama by 20.5%, the latter having lost North Dakota by 19.6% in the concurrent presidential election.^[4] Heitkamp's very narrow winning margin made it the closest race of the 2012 United States Senate elections.

As of 2024^[update], this was the last time a Democrat won a federal and/or statewide election in North Dakota.^[5]

Democratic-NPL primary

The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot.^[6]

Candidates

Nominee

• Heidi Heitkamp, former attorney general of North Dakota and nominee for Governor of North Dakota in 2000^[7]

Withdrew

• Thomas Potter, Presbyterian pastor and former professor of finance at UND^[8] (dropped out February 2012)^[9]

Declined

• Kent Conrad, incumbent U.S. Senator^[10]
• Pam Gulleson, former state representative and former chief of staff and former state director for former senator Byron Dorgan^[11]
• Kristin Hedger, nominee for North Dakota Secretary of State in 2006^[12]
• Joel Heitkamp, brother of Heidi Heitkamp, radio personality and former state senator^[13]
• Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union and former North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner^[14]
• Tim Mathern, state senator and nominee for governor in 2008^[15]
• Earl Pomeroy, former U.S. Representative^[16]
• Tracy Potter, state senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[15]
• Tim Purdon, U.S. Attorney^[17]
• Jasper Schneider, USDA rural development State Director^[15][18]
• Mac Schneider, state senator^[12]
• Ryan Taylor, Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate^[19]

Republican primary

North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot.^[20]

Candidates

Nominee

• Rick Berg, U.S. Representative^[21][22]

Eliminated in primary

• Duane Sand, former North and South Dakota Director for Americans for Prosperity and nominee for ND-AL in 2004 and 2008^[23]

Declined

• Al Carlson, North Dakota state house majority leader^[24]
• Tony Clark, state public service commissioner^[25]
• Kevin Cramer, state public service commissioner^[25]
• Jack Dalrymple, North Dakota governor and 1992 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate^[26]
• Cory Fong, state tax commissioner^[27]
• Shane Goettle, U.S. Senator John Hoeven's state director^[28]
• Tony Grindberg, state senator^[29]
• Bob Harms, North Dakota Republican Party treasurer^[15]
• Brian Kalk, state public service commissioner (running for House)^[30]
• Kim Koppelman, state representative^[31]
• Ed Schafer, former U.S. agriculture secretary and former North Dakota governor^[32]
• Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota treasurer^[33]
• Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota attorney general^[34]
• John Warford, mayor of Bismarck^[35]
• Drew Wrigley, North Dakota lieutenant governor^[26]

Endorsements

Rick Berg

Individuals

• Katie Anderson, Mayor of Jamestown
• John Hoeven, United States Senator from North Dakota
• Kay Bailey Hutchison, United States Senator from Texas
• Mike Hynek, Mayor of Stanley
• Dennis Johnson, Mayor of Dickinson
• Nancy Johnson, state representative
• Ward Koeser, Mayor of Williston
• Rich Mattern, Mayor of West Fargo
• Ed McConnell, Mayor of Casselton
• George Nodland, state senator
• Mitt Romney
• Brent Sanford, Mayor of Watford City
• Mike Schatz, state representative
• Vicky Steiner, state representative
• Jim Sturdevant, Mayor of Wahpeton
• Rich Wardner, State Senate Majority Leader
• John Warford, Mayor of Bismarck
• Curt Zimbelman, Mayor of Minot

Organizations

• Susan B. Anthony List
• NRA Political Victory Fund^[36]
• North Dakota Farm Bureau

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Berg	Duane Sand	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[37]	June 4–6, 2012	625	± 4.0%	73%	16%	11%
Essman Research[38]	May 3–8, 2012	500	± 4.3%	65%	21%	14%

Results

Results by county:

  Berg—80–90%

  Berg—70–80%

  Berg—60–70%

  Berg—50–60%

Republican primary results^[39]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Rick Berg	67,849	66.41%
	Republican	Duane Sand	34,209	33.48%
	Republican	Write-ins	111	.41%
Total votes			102,281	100.00%

General election

Candidates

• Rick Berg (R), U.S. Representative^[21][22]
• Heidi Heitkamp (D), former attorney general of North Dakota and nominee for governor in 2000^[7]
• Bill Kiefer (I), businessman^[40]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 15, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Heidi Heitkamp (D-NPL)	$5,341,362	$5,318,232	$23,130	$0
Rick Berg (R)	$6,501,693	$6,129,026	$316,641	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[41][42]

Top contributors

^[43]

Heidi Heitkamp	Contribution	Rick Berg	Contribution
Motley Rice LLC	$41,750	Verizon Communications	$43,666
Council for a Livable World	$26,705	Elliott Management Corporation	$29,413
Weitz & Luxenberg	$22,400	NORPAC	$26,700
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP	$15,050	Mewbourne Oil Co	$25,000
Medcenter One Health Systems	$12,000	Rurban Financial	$22,700
American Association for Justice	$10,833	Hess Corp	$22,500
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld	$10,750	NACCO Industries	$22,000
American Federation of Teachers	$10,300	Marathon Oil	$21,000
Patton Boggs LLP	$10,250	Berkshire Hathaway	$20,500
American Postal Workers Union	$10,000	Koch Industries	$20,000

Top industries

^[44]

Heidi Heitkamp	Contribution	Rick Berg	Contribution
Lawyers/law firms	$433,811	Oil & gas	$433,949
Leadership PACs	$284,500	Leadership PACs	$277,163
Women's issues	$111,593	Financial institutions	$274,941
Lobbyists	$103,635	Retired	$218,909
Retired	$100,812	Real estate	$171,686
Agribusiness	$78,450	Agribusiness	$163,583
Public sector unions	$73,800	Insurance	$140,011
Financial institutions	$64,713	Commercial banks	$127,140
Education	$60,960	Health professionals	$114,438
Building trade unions	$52,500	Mining	$106,804

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.^[45]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[46]	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Inside Elections[47]	Tilt R (flip)	November 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2012
Real Clear Politics[49]	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Heidi Heitkamp (D-NPL)	Rick Berg (R)	Other	Undecided
Pharos Research[50]	November 2–5, 2012	503	± 4.1%	47%	49%	—	4%
Pharos Research[51]	October 26–28, 2012	752	± 3.6%	50%	48%	—	2%
Mason-Dixon[52]	October 26–28, 2012	625	± 4.0%	45%	47%	—	8%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)[53]	October 21–24, 2012	600	± 4.0%	48%	44%	—	7%
Pharos Research[54]	October 19–21, 2012	807	± 3.4%	49%	48%	—	3%
The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)[55]	October 16–19, 2012	600	± 4.0%	45%	42%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports[56]	October 17–18, 2012	600	± 4.0%	45%	50%	—	5%
Essman Research[57]	October 12–15, 2012	500	± 4.4%	40%	50%	—	10%
Mason-Dixon[58]	October 3–5, 2012	625	± 4.0%	47%	47%	—	6%
DFM Research (D)[59]	September 24–27, 2012	600	± 4.0%	48%	44%	—	8%
DFM Research (D)[60]	July 24–26, 2012	400	± 4.9%	50%	44%	—	6%
Rasmussen Reports[61]	July 10–11, 2012	400	± 5.0%	40%	49%	2%	8%
Mason-Dixon[37]	June 4–6, 2012	625	± 4.0%	47%	46%	—	7%
Essman Research[38]	May 3–8, 2012	500	± 4.3%	44%	51%	—	5%
DFM Research (D)[62]	April 18–26, 2012	478	± 4.5%	49%	44%	1%	6%

Results

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2012^[63]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic–NPL	Heidi Heitkamp	161,337	50.24%	−18.58%
	Republican	Rick Berg	158,401	49.32%	+19.79%
	Write-in		1,406	0.44%	N/A
Total votes			321,144	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic–NPL hold

By county

By county

County Heidi Heitkamp Democratic–NPL Rick Berg Republican Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % Adams 473 36.90 806 62.87 3 0.23 -333 -25.97 1,282 Barnes 3,181 57.51 2,329 42.11 21 0.38 852 15.40 5,531 Benson 1,453 67.08 709 32.73 4 0.18 744 34.45 2,166 Billings 160 27.92 412 71.90 1 0.17 -252 -43.98 573 Bottineau 1,636 46.33 1,875 53.10 20 0.57 -239 -6.77 3,531 Bowman 621 36.29 1,086 63.47 4 0.23 -465 -27.18 1,711 Burke 360 35.29 657 64.41 3 0.29 -731 -29.12 1,020 Burleigh 19,284 44.79 23,538 54.67 231 0.54 -4,254 -9.88 43,053 Cass 41,480 56.51 31,569 43.00 359 0.49 9,911 13.51 73,408 Cavalier 1,087 52.49 977 47.18 7 0.34 110 5.31 2,071 Dickey 1,125 44.43 1,399 55.25 8 0.32 -274 -10.92 2,532 Divide 592 50.95 567 48.80 3 0.26 25 2.15 1,162 Dunn 746 36.71 1,283 63.14 3 0.15 -537 -26.43 2,032 Eddy 693 60.00 455 39.39 7 0.61 238 20.61 1,155 Emmons 709 37.85 1,152 61.51 12 0.64 -443 -23.66 1,873 Foster 853 51.05 810 48.47 8 0.48 43 2.58 1,671 Golden Valley 265 28.59 660 71.20 2 0.22 -395 -42.61 927 Grand Forks 16,542 55.60 13,101 44.04 107 0.36 3,441 11.56 29,750 Grant 542 38.66 853 60.84 7 0.50 -311 -22.18 1,402 Griggs 704 52.85 628 47.15 0 0.00 76 5.70 1,332 Hettinger 511 37.63 843 62.08 4 0.29 -332 -24.45 1,358 Kidder 613 46.19 706 53.20 8 0.60 -93 -7.01 1,327 LaMoure 1,065 48.34 1,125 51.07 13 0.59 -60 -2.73 2,203 Logan 446 42.00 610 57.44 6 0.56 -164 -15.44 1,062 McHenry 1,359 50.20 1,339 49.46 9 0.33 20 0.74 2,707 McIntosh 648 42.35 872 56.99 10 0.65 -224 -14.64 1,530 McKenzie 1,229 36.02 2,177 63.80 6 0.18 -948 -26.98 3,412 McLean 2,357 47.96 2,544 51.76 14 0.28 -187 -3.80 4,915 Mercer 1,807 40.59 2,627 59.01 18 0.40 -820 -18.42 4,452 Morton 6,325 46.68 7,135 52.66 90 0.66 -810 -5.98 13,550 Mountrail 1,745 50.92 1,673 48.82 9 0.26 72 2.10 3,427 Nelson 993 59.50 670 40.14 6 0.36 323 19.36 1,669 Oliver 446 44.33 555 55.17 5 0.50 -109 -10.84 1,006 Pembina 1,672 51.30 1,579 48.45 8 0.25 93 2.85 3,259 Pierce 1,027 47.22 1,136 52.23 12 0.55 -109 -5.01 2,175 Ramsey 2,766 55.18 2,229 44.46 18 0.36 537 10.72 5,013 Ransom 1,669 68.71 755 31.08 5 0.21 914 37.63 2,429 Renville 580 46.00 676 53.61 5 0.40 -96 -7.61 1,261 Richland 4,445 58.39 3,135 41.18 102 1.31 1,310 17.21 7,613 Rolette 3,662 80.08 902 19.72 9 0.20 2,760 60.36 4,573 Sargent 1,321 65.66 679 33.75 12 0.60 642 31.91 2,012 Sheridan 299 36.29 521 63.23 4 0.49 -222 -26.94 824 Sioux 963 83.52 185 16.05 5 0.43 778 67.47 1,153 Slope 149 33.48 294 66.07 2 0.45 -100 -32.59 445 Stark 4,110 35.63 7,393 64.09 32 0.28 -3,283 -28.46 11,535 Steele 641 61.63 398 38.27 1 0.10 243 23.36 1,040 Stutsman 4,800 50.61 4,654 49.07 30 0.32 146 1.54 9,484 Towner 699 59.39 472 40.10 6 0.51 227 19.29 1,177 Traill 2,311 59.06 1,589 40.61 13 0.33 722 18.45 3,913 Walsh 2,645 54.94 2,151 44.68 18 0.37 494 10.26 4,814 Ward 11,230 44.45 13,888 54.97 145 0.57 -2,658 -10.52 25,263 Wells 982 41.59 1,363 57.73 16 0.68 -381 16.14 2,361 Williams 3,142 32.37 6,541 67.38 24 0.25 -3,399 -35.01 9,707 Totals 161,163 50.23 158,282 49.33 1,406 0.44 2,492 0.9 320,851 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Adams (largest city: Hettinger) Billings (largest city: Medora) Bottineau (largest city: Bottineau) Bowman (largest city: Bowman) Burke (largest city: Powers Lake) Burleigh (largest city: Bismarck) Dickey (largest city: Oakes) Dunn (largest city: Killdeer) Emmons (largest city: Linton) Golden Valley (largest city: Beach) Grant (largest city: Elgin) Hettinger (largest city: Mott) Kidder (largest city: Steele) LaMoure (largest city: LaMoure) Logan (largest city: Napoleon) McIntosh (largest city: Wishek) McKenzie (largest city: Watford City) McLean (largest city: Garrison) Mercer (largest city: Beulah) Morton (largest city: Mandan) Oliver (largest city: Center) Pierce (largest city: Rugby) Renville (largest city: Mohall) Sheridan (largest city: McClusky) Slope (largest city: Marmarth) Stark (largest city: Dickinson) Ward (largest city: Minot) Wells (largest city: Harvey) Williams (largest city: Williston)

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota
• 2012 North Dakota gubernatorial election

References

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8. Nodland, Chad (October 25, 2011). "Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate". NorthDecoder.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
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15. Beitsch, Rebecca (January 18, 2011). "Neither party lacking Senate contenders". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
16. Trygstad, Kyle; Toeplitz, Shira (April 11, 2011). "West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 17, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
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18. Rodgers, Ben (January 19, 2011). "Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved January 19, 2011.^{[permanent dead link‍]}
19. "Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor". Grand Forks Herald. December 12, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011.^{[permanent dead link‍]}(subscription required)
20. Daum, Kristen (March 29, 2012). "Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved March 29, 2012.^{[permanent dead link‍]}
21. Sobel, Julie (May 16, 2011). "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race". National Journal: Hotline On Call. Archived from the original on November 4, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
22. Toeplitz, Shira (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Archived from the original on February 16, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
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38. Daum, Kristen (May 17, 2012). "Poll: Berg leads Heitkamp in U.S. Senate race". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Forum Communications. Archived from the original on May 23, 2012.
39. "North Dakota Secretary of State".
40. "Candidate throws his name into the U.S. Senate Race". WDAY-TV. Forum Communications Company. September 6, 2012. Archived from the original on September 10, 2012.
41. "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
42. "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Archived from the original on April 21, 2011. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
43. "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
44. "North Dakota Senate 2012 Race: Top Industries". OpenSecrets. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
45. Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
46. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
47. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
48. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
49. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
50. Pharos Research
51. "North Dakota Polling Report: 10/26/12-10/28/12" (PDF). Pharos Research Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 20, 2014.
52. Mason-Dixon
53. The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)
54. Pharos Research
55. The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)
56. Rasmussen Reports
57. Essman Research
58. Mason-Dixon
59. DFM Research (D)
60. DFM Research (D)
61. Rasmussen Reports
62. DFM Research (D)
63. "OFFICIAL 2012 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved January 13, 2019.

External links

• North Dakota Secretary of State
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Rick Berg for U.S. Senate
• Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate