2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii

The 2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Daniel Akaka decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth full term. Democrat Mazie Hirono defeated Republican Linda Lingle. This was the first open Senate seat in the state of Hawaii since 1976.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2012 United States Senate election in Hawaii

 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 
Turnout44.2% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Mazie Hirono Linda Lingle
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 269,489 160,994
Percentage 62.60% 37.40%

Hirono:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Lingle:      50–60%      60–70%
Tie:      50%      No votes

U.S. senator before election

Daniel Akaka
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mazie Hirono
Democratic

Close

This was a rematch of the 2002 Hawaii gubernatorial election, which Linda Lingle won 51.56% - 47.01%.

Background

U.S. Representative Daniel Akaka was appointed by Governor John Waihee to the U.S. Senate to serve temporarily after the death of U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga, and sworn into office on May 16, 1990. On November 6 of the same year, he was elected to complete the remaining four years of Matsunaga's unexpired term. He was re-elected in 1994 for a first full six-year term and again in 2000 and 2006. Despite originally saying he would seek re-election in 2012,[2] on March 2, 2011, Akaka announced that he would not run for re-election.[3]

Democratic primary

Summarize
Perspective

The primary election was held on August 11.[4] After being locked in a tight race with Ed Case, her predecessor in Congress, incumbent Congresswoman Mazie Hirono pulled away in the final vote, handily defeating Case.

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

In December 2011, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairwoman and U.S. Senator Patty Murray for Washington endorsed Hirono.[12] U.S. Senator and President Pro Tempore Daniel Inouye for Hawaii also endorsed her. Case criticized "D.C. insiders." He also argued that he is a fiscal moderate, while Hirono was rated the 6th most liberal member of the U.S. House.[13][14] The Daily Kos blog described Ed Case as a "Democratic villain."[15]

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case
Mazie
Hirono
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 368 ±5.1% 40% 45% 15%
Civil Beat Poll[17] January 18–19, 2012 1,358 ±2.7% 41% 39% 20%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[18] January 26 – February 5, 2012 599 ±4.0% 36% 56% 8%
Civil Beat Poll[19] June 5–7, 2012 731 ±3.6% 46% 46% 8%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[18] July 5–9, 2012 599 ±4.0% 40% 43% 9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[20] July 12–21, 2012 606 ±4.0% 37% 55% 8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[21] July 31 – August 2, 2012 1,227 ±2.8% 47% 46% 9%
Close

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Hirono—60–70%
  Hirono—50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mazie Hirono 134,745 57%
Democratic Ed Case 95,553 40%
Blank Votes 3,331 1%
Democratic Arturo Reyes 1,720 1%
Democratic Michael Gillespie 1,104 1%
Democratic Antonio Gimbernat 517 0.2%
Over Votes 110 0%
Total votes 237,080 100%
Close

Republican primary

The primary election was held on August 11.

Candidates

Declined

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Carroll
Linda
Lingle
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[30] October 13–16, 2011 293 ±5.7% 9% 85% 6%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Linda Lingle 44,252 90%
Republican John Carroll 2,900 6%
Blank Votes 749 2%
Republican John Roco 545 1%
Republican Charles Collins 366 1%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski 232 0.5%
Over Votes 25 0.1%
Total votes 49,069 100%
Close

General election

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

  • Heath Beasley (independent)[31]
  • Mazie Hirono (Democratic), U.S. representative
  • Linda Lingle (Republican), former governor

Debates

Fundraising

More information Candidate (party), Receipts ...
Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Mazie Hirono (D) $5,518,572 $5,657,753 $77,323 $241,951
Linda Lingle (R) $5,865,323 $5,839,282 $26,042 $194,534
Source: Federal Election Commission[36][37]
Close

Top contributors

More information Mazie Hirono, Contribution ...
Mazie Hirono Contribution Linda Lingle Contribution
EMILY's List $215,640 Goldman Sachs $39,900
University of Hawaii $29,900 Elliott Management Corporation $39,500
Kobayashi, Sugita & Goda $24,618 Humanscale Corporation $34,000
Alexander & Baldwin $23,100 Bank of America $21,240
RM Towill Corp $23,000 Richie's Specialty Pharmacy $20,000
Weitz & Luxenberg $22,400 Marriott International $19,500
Council for a Livable World $20,914 Murray Energy $19,205
Nan, Inc. $20,000 State of Hawaii $18,350
Thornton & Naumes $20,000 Devon Energy $15,500
BNP Paribas $17,250 Crown Associates Realty $15,000
Source: OpenSecrets[38]
Close

Top industries

More information Mazie Hirono, Contribution ...
Mazie Hirono Contribution Linda Lingle Contribution
Lawyers/law firms $524,619 Retired $640,433
Women's issues $336,772 Financial institutions $368,837
Retired $194,307 Leadership PACs $291,500
Leadership PACs $186,500 Real estate $249,216
Real estate $123,598 Pro-Israel $185,500
Transportation unions $110,400 Health professionals $154,550
Lobbyists $109,344 Petroleum industry $137,950
Public sector unions $108,000 Misc. finance $137,500
Democratic/liberal $85,788 Lawyers/law firms $135,086
Shipping industry $85,385 Republican/conservative $101,664
Source: OpenSecrets[39]
Close

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[40] Lean D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Likely D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[42] Likely D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[43] Likely D November 5, 2012
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 52% 40% 9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 57% 35% 8%
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 48% 42% 10%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[46] January 18–19, 2012 1,358 ±2.7% 46% 39% 16%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[47] January 26 – February 5, 2012 771 ±3.5% 57% 37% 5%
Public Policy Polling[48] May 16–17, 2012 600 ±4.0% 50% 41% 9%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[49] June 5–7, 2012 1,105 ±2.9% 49% 44% 5%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[20] July 12–21, 2012 756 ±3.6% 58% 39% 4%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[50] September 26–28, 2012 1,684 ±2.4% 55% 39% 6%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[51] October 15–22, 2012 786 ±3.5% 57% 35% 8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[52] October 24–26, 2012 1,218 ±2.8% 55% 40% 5%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case
Colleen
Hanabusa
Mufi
Hannemann
Mazie
Hirono
Brian
Schatz
Don't Know/
Refused
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[53] May 4–10, 2011 403 ±4.9% 26% 15% 17% 25% 6% 11%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 50% 35% 15%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 49% 42% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 48% 43% 9%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 50% 40% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 51% 40% 9%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 54% 39% 7%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 53% 35% 12%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 51% 40% 9%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mufi
Hannemann (D)
Charles
Djou (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 46% 40% 14%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mufi
Hannemann (D)
Duke
Aiona (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 42% 42% 16%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mufi
Hannemann (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 47% 40% 14%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 51% 36% 13%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schatz (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 47% 43% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 60% 21% 18%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ed
Case (D)
Linda
Lingle (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[44] March 24–27, 2011 898 ±3.3% 52% 35% 12%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[45] May 4–10, 2011 614 ±4.0% 54% 36% 10%
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 43% 45% 12%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[46] January 18–19, 2012 1,358 ±2.7% 46% 33% 20%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[47] January 26 – February 5, 2012 771 ±3.5% 56% 36% 8%
Civil Beat/Merriman River[49] June 5–7, 2012 1,105 ±2.9% 52% 36% 12%
Honolulu Star-Advertiser[20] July 12–21, 2012 756 ±3.6% 56% 38% 6%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mazie
Hirono (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided/Other
Public Policy Polling[16] October 13–16, 2011 568 ±4.1% 56% 29% 15%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Democratic primary

with Duke Aiona

with Colleen Hanabusa

with Charles Djou

With Mufi Hannemann

with Brian Schatz

Endorsements

Mazie Hirono (D)

U.S. representatives

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2012[55]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mazie Hirono 269,489 62.60% +1.25%
Republican Linda Lingle 160,994 37.40% +0.62%
Total votes 430,483 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
Close

By congressional district

Hirono won both congressional districts.[56]

More information District, Hirono ...
District Hirono Lingle Representative
1st 59.94% 40.06% Colleen Hanabusa
2nd 65.24% 34.76% Tulsi Gabbard
Close

See also

References

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