2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, and elected the four U.S. representatives from the state of Utah, an increase of one seat in reapportionment following the 2010 United States census. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial federal presidential election, a concurrent quadrennial statewide gubernatorial election, all other simultaneous quadrennial statewide executive official election, and an election to the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on June 26, 2012.^[1]

2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah

← 2010 November 6, 2012 2014 →
All 4 Utah seats to the United States House of Representatives
Majority party Minority party   Party Republican Democratic Last election 2 1 Seats won 3 1 Seat change 1 Popular vote 647,873 324,309 Percentage 64.86% 32.47% Swing 3.82% 1.6%
Republican   60–70%   70–80% Democratic   40–50%

Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in Utah, 2012[2]
Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats Before	Seats After	+/–
	Republican	647,873	64.86%	2	3	+1
	Democratic	324,309	32.47%	1	1	-
	Constitution	14,481	1.45%	0	0	-
	Libertarian	6,439	0.64%	0	0	-
	Independent	5,795	0.58%	0	0	-
Totals		998,897	100.00%	3	4	+1

Redistricting

In Utah, the redistricting process was controlled by members of the Republican Party, who formed a majority on the State Legislature's redistricting committee. The plan passed October 2011 divides Salt Lake County among three districts, which Republicans argued would require Utah's U.S. Representatives focus on both urban and rural issues.^[3][4] Jim Dabakis, the chair of the Utah Democratic Party, argued that the map constituted a gerrymander designed to benefit the Republican Party.^[5]

District 1

Republican incumbent Rob Bishop, who has represented Utah's 1st congressional district since 2003, ran for re-election, having decided against running for governor.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Rob Bishop, incumbent U.S. Representative

Eliminated in primary

• Leonard "Joe" Fabiano, business entrepreneur and candidate for senate in 2010
• Jacqueline Smith, homemaker and Tea Party activist

Withdrawn

• Michael Miller, Iraq War veteran^[6]

Results

Rob Bishop became the official Republican candidate April 21, 2012 at the State Republican Convention.

Republican convention, 1st round results^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Rob Bishop	786	81.1
	Republican	Jacqueline Smith	158	16.3
	Republican	Leonard Fabiano	25	2.6
Total votes			969	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Donna McAleer, management consultant and West Point graduate

Eliminated in primary

• Ryan Combe, small business owner

Results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Donna McAleer	3,881	66.6
	Democratic	Ryan Combe	1,944	33.4
Total votes			5,825	100.0

Constitution primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Sherry Phipps

General election

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rob Bishop (R)	Donna McAleer (D)	Sherry Phipps (C)	Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[8]	October 26–November 1, 2012	194 (RV)	±7.0%	70%	15%	2%	10%
Key Research/Brigham Young University[9]	October 9–13, 2012	407 (LV)	±7.0%	62%	20%	–	18%

Results

Utah's 1st congressional district, 2012

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Rob Bishop (incumbent)	175,487	71.5
	Democratic	Donna M. McAleer	60,611	24.7
	Constitution	Sherry Phipps	9,430	3.8
Total votes			245,528	100.0
	Republican hold

District 2

Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson, who has represented Utah's 2nd congressional district since 2001, sought re-election in the new 4th district.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jay Seegmiller, former state representative

Eliminated in primary

• Dean Collinwood
• Mike Small^[10]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Chris Stewart, author, former U.S. Air Force pilot, and president of an energy consulting firm;^[11]

Eliminated in primary

• Jason Buck, former American football player at Brigham Young University and in the National Football League^[12]
• Dave Clark, former speaker of the Utah House of Representatives;^[13]
• Cherilyn Eagar, business owner and candidate for Senate in 2010;^[14]
• Robert Fuehr, former telecommunications executive and Harvard University MBA alumnus^[15]
• Milton Hanks
• Edward Mayerhofer
• Jeramey McElhaney, small business owner
• Howard Wallack^[11]
• Chuck Williams, former Assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Installations and Environment and retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel;^[16]
• John Willoughby, airline pilot,^[6]

Withdrawn

• Morgan Philpot, former state representative and nominee for this seat in 2010^[17][18]

Declined

• Dan Liljenquist, state senator^[19]

Results

Republican convention, 1st round results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chris Stewart	365	39.6
	Republican	David Clark	234	25.0
	Republican	Milton Ray Hanks	121	13.0
	Republican	Howard Wallack	51	5.5
	Republican	Cherilyn Eagar	48	5.2
	Republican	Jason Buck	42	4.5
	Republican	Bob Fuehr	24	2.6
	Republican	Chuck Williams	16	1.7
	Republican	Jeramey McElhaney	14	1.5
	Republican	John W. Willoughby	6	0.7
	Republican	Edward Mayerhofer	0	0.0
Total votes			921	100.0

Republican convention, 2nd round results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chris Stewart	386	43.9
	Republican	David Clark	283	32.2
	Republican	Milton Ray Hanks	65	7.4
	Republican	Jeramey McElhaney	63	7.2
	Republican	Jason Buck	57	6.5
	Republican	Bob Fuehr	25	2.8
Total votes			879	100.0

Republican convention, 3rd round results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chris Stewart	511	61.6
	Republican	David Clark	319	38.4
Total votes			830	100.0

Constitution primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jonathan D. Garrard

Independents

Independent candidate Charles Kimball also filed.

General election

Endorsements

Jay Seegmiller (D)

Organizations

• Sierra Club^[21]

Chris Stewart (R)

Organizations

• National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program^[22]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Seegmiller (D)	Chris Stewart (R)	Other	Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[23]	October 26–November 1, 2012	229 (RV)	±6.5%	28%	44%	5%	22%
Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake Tribune[24]	October 29–31, 2012	625 (LV)	±4.0%	28%	55%	5%	12%
Key Research/Brigham Young University[9]	October 9–13, 2012	100 (LV)	±10.0%	20%	46%	–	34%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[25]	Safe R (flip)	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[26]	Safe R (flip)	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[27]	Safe R (flip)	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28]	Safe R (flip)	November 5, 2012
NY Times[29]	Safe R (flip)	November 4, 2012
RCP[30]	Safe R (flip)	November 4, 2012
The Hill[31]	Safe R (flip)	November 4, 2012

Results

Utah's 2nd congressional district, 2012

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chris Stewart	154,523	62.2
	Democratic	Jay Seegmiller	83,176	33.5
	Constitution	Jonathan D. Garrard	5,051	2.0
	Independent	Joseph Andrade	2,971	1.2
	Independent	Charles E. Kimball	2,824	1.1
Total votes			248,545	100.0
	Republican gain from Democratic

District 3

Jason Chaffetz, was seeking a third term in representing Utah's 3rd congressional district;^[32]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jason Chaffetz, incumbent U.S. Representative

Eliminated in primary

• Brian Jenkins
• Lynn D. Wardle

Withdrawn

• Kurt Bradburn.^[33]
• Leonard "Joe" Fabiano, business entrepreneur and candidate for senate in 2010^[34]

Results

Republican convention, 1st round results^[35]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jason Chaffetz	710	75.0
	Republican	Lynn D. Wardle	208	22.0
	Republican	Brian Jenkins	29	3.0
Total votes			947	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Soren Simonsen, Salt Lake City Council Chair^[36]

Eliminated in primary

• Richard Clark

General election

Endorsements

Soren Simonsen (D)

Organizations

• Equality Utah^[37]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jason Chaffetz (R)	Soren Simonsen (D)	Other	Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[38]	October 26–November 1, 2012	232	±6.4%	68%	18%	3%	10%
Key Research/Brigham Young University[39]	October 9–13, 2012	100 (LV)	±4.4%	68%	15%	—	17%

Results

Utah's 3rd congressional district, 2012

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jason Chaffetz	198,828	76.6
	Democratic	Soren D. Simonsen	60,719	23.4
Total votes			259,547	100.0
	Republican hold

District 4

Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Matheson, who has represented Utah's 2nd congressional district since 2001 and had considered running for governor^[40] or for the U.S. Senate,^[41] sought re-election to the House in Utah's new 4th congressional district after his previous seat was split up by the redistricting.^[42][43]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jim Matheson, incumbent U.S. Representative for the 2nd district

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mia Love, Mayor of Saratoga Springs

Eliminated in primary

• Jay Cobb, attorney
• Kenneth Gray
• Stephen Sandstrom, state representative
• Carl Wimmer, state representative^[42]

Declined

• Jason Buck, former American football player at Brigham Young University and National Football League^[12]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Cobb	Mia Love	Stephen Sandstrom	Carl Wimmer	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[44]	April 9–11, 2011	625 (LV)	± 4.0%	—	23%	14%	35%	28%	—
Dan Jones & Associates	December 19–21, 2011	341 (RV)	± 5.3%	3%	8%	15%	15%	19%	41%

Results

In the Republican convention, held on April 21, 2012, Love received 70.4% of the vote (she needed more than 60% to avoid a primary).^[45]

Republican convention, 1st round results^[46]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mia Love	442	53.1
	Republican	Carl Wimmer	256	30.8
	Republican	Steve Sandstrom	81	9.7
	Republican	Jay Cobb	52	6.3
	Republican	Kenneth Gray	1	0.1
Total votes			863	100.0

Republican convention, 2nd round results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mia Love	551	70.5
	Republican	Carl Wimmer	231	29.5
Total votes			782	100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jim Vein

Withdrawn

• Ken Larsen, medical researcher

Justice primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

• Torin Nelson

General election

Campaign

Despite beginning her campaign at a significant name recognition disadvantage to Matheson, Love was able to mount a strong challenge. This was in part fueled by a prime time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention where she impressed many with her backstory of a being the daughter of Haitian immigrants whose parents "Immigrated to the U.S. with $10 in their pocket" and her themes of self-reliance, small government and fiscal responsibility.^[47] However she was later hit by claims that she was technically an Anchor Baby, despite having seemingly backing the deportation of the US-born children of illegal immigrants.^[48]

Facing a district largely new to him, Matheson ran ads showcasing his independent credentials and airing clips of Love voicing support for cutting the Department of Education and privatizing Social Security. Despite the NRCC running ads trying to tie him to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, Matheson's favorability rating remained at around 60% throughout the campaign.^[49]

Endorsements

Jim Matheson (D)

Organizations

• Blue Dog Coalition^[50]
• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Frontline" Program^[51]

Mia Love (R)

Organizations

• Maggie's List^[52]
• National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program^[53]
• Susan B. Anthony List^[54]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Matheson (D)	Mia Love (R)	Jim Vein (L)	Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates[55]	October 26–November 1, 2012	414 (RV)	±4.8%	43%	48%	3%	6%
Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake Tribune[24]	October 29–31, 2012	625 (LV)	±4.0%	40%	52%	2%	6%
Key Research/Brigham Young University[9]	October 9–13, 2012	407 (LV)	±7.0%	43%	43%	—	14%
Global Strategy (D)[56]	October 9–10, 2012	407 (LV)	±4.9%	48%	41%	—	11%
Dan Jones & Associates[57]	September 26–29, 2012	414 (RV)	±5.0%	43%	49%	—	8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Love)/NRCC)[58]	September 10–11, 2012	400 (LV)	±4.9%	36%	51%	—	13%
Global Strategy (D)[59]	July 26–29, 2012	400 (LV)	±4.9%	51%	33%	—	16%
Dan Jones & Associates[60]	June 15–21, 2012	379 (RV)	±5.1%	53%	38%	1%	8%
Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake Tribune[61]	April 9–11, 2012	625 (LV)	±4.0%	45%	42%	—	13%
Dan Jones & Associates[62]	December 19–21, 2011	341 (RV)	±5.3%	53%	36%	4%	12%

An early poll published by the Deseret News on Dec 25, 2011 showed Jim Matheson leading all potential opponents.^[63]

Hypothetical polling

With Cobb

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Matheson (D)	Jay Cobb (R)	Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates	December 19–21, 2011	341 (RV)	±5.3%	54%	35%	11%

With Sandstrom

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Matheson (D)	Stephen Sandstrom (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[64]	April 9–11, 2012	625 (LV)	±4.0%	45%	42%	13%
Dan Jones & Associates[65]	December 19–21, 2011	341 (RV)	±5.3%	50%	41%	10%

With Wimmer

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Matheson (D)	Carl Wimmer (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[64]	April 9–11, 2012	625 (LV)	±4.0%	46%	45%	9%
Dan Jones & Associates[65]	December 19–21, 2011	341 (RV)	±5.3%	52%	41%	7%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[26]	Tilts R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[27]	Lean R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28]	Lean R	November 5, 2012
NY Times[29]	Tossup	November 4, 2012
RCP[30]	Tossup	November 4, 2012
The Hill[31]	Tossup	November 4, 2012

Results

Matheson narrowly defeated the Love in the general election by only 768 votes.^[66] If Love had won the seat, she would have become the first African-American Republican woman to sit in the House.^[67]

Utah's 4th congressional district, 2012

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jim Matheson (incumbent)	119,803	48.8
	Republican	Mia Love	119,035	48.5
	Libertarian	Jim L. Vein	6,439	2.6
Total votes			245,277	100.0
	Democratic win (new seat)