2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
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The 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick was re-elected to a second term.[3]
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| Turnout | 54.81% 1.42 [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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   Patrick: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Baker: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Cahill: 40–50% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Party primaries were held on September 14, though all four candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[4] Tim Murray, who ran on a ticket with Patrick, was re-elected Lieutenant Governor. This election is the only gubernatorial election since 1994 in which the two major parties did not have a woman on the gubernatorial ticket.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
- Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor[5]
Withdrew
- Grace Ross, 2006 Green-Rainbow nominee for Governor[6][7]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Deval Patrick | Grace Ross |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 59% | 15% |
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
- Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
- Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care and former Secretary of Administration and Finance[9][10][11]
Eliminated at convention
- Christy Mihos, independent candidate for governor in 2006[12][13]
Declined
- Kerry Healey, former Lieutenant Governor and nominee in 2006[14]
- Bob Hedlund, State Senator from Weymouth[15]
- Joe Malone, former State Treasurer [16] (ran for U.S. Representative)
- Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts[17][18]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Charlie Baker | Christy Mihos |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | July 15–21, 2009 | 27% | 20% |
| Suffolk University[20] | November 4–8, 2009 | 30% | 33% |
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 47% | 17% |
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
- Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate
General election
Summarize
Perspective
Candidates
- Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care[9][10][11] (Republican)
- Running mate: Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate
- Tim Cahill, State Treasurer and Receiver-General[21] (Independent)
- Running mate: Paul Loscocco, former Republican State Representative
- Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor[5] (Democratic)
- Running mate: Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor
- Jill Stein, medical internist and co-chairperson of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party[22] (Green-Rainbow)
- Running mate: Richard P. Purcell, surgery clerk and ergonomics assessor[23]
Campaign
Defection of Loscocco
On October 1, 2010, Loscocco announced that he would withdraw from the race and endorse Republican candidate Charlie Baker.[2] Loscocco formally remained on the ballot, however.[24] On October 7, Cahill filed a lawsuit against four former campaign aides, alleging that they conspired to undermine his candidacy and help Charlie Baker by arranging his defection.[25] Cahill claimed that e-mails between Republican political consultants and Loscocco's top aide suggested that Loscocco may have been enticed to leave the ticket by future job promises.[26] In response, Loscocco claimed that Cahill's top aide was coordinating strategy with the Patrick campaign and the Democratic Governors' Association and thus was never actually an independent effort.[27]
Lottery ad
Soon after Cahill filed suit against him, Adam Meldrum, Cahill's former campaign manager, alleged that Cahill colluded with the Massachusetts Lottery, which is overseen by the state treasurer's office, to run an ad favorable to him during the campaign. The ad, paid for by the Commonwealth, described the Massachusetts Lottery "the most successful state lottery America" and "consistently well-managed", echoing themes from Cahill's gubernatorial campaign. Both Cahill and Massachusetts Lottery Director Mark Cavanagh denied the allegations.[25] On October 18, e-mails released in conjunction with Cahill's lawsuit appeared to reveal that the campaign attempted to have the Lottery air a series of ads that praised the lottery's management. In the e-mails, Cahill's campaign media strategist Dane Strother told Meldrum to "Get the Lottery immediately cutting a spot and get it up...Needs to focus on the Lottery being the best in the country and above reproach." Two days later, Cahill's senior adviser Scott Campbell wrote, "I think the first thing is to figure out what/where/how we want to do this ... with Lottery people."[28]
On April 2, 2012, Cahill was indicted by a Grand Jury on charges that he used $1.65 million in Massachusetts State Lottery advertising to aid his campaign for governor.[29] On December 12, 2012, a mistrial was declared in the corruption case after the jury failed to reach a verdict on two counts of conspiracy.[30]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[31] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[32] | Tilt D | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[33] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[35] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll | Date | Deval Patrick (D) |
Charlie Baker (R) |
Tim Cahill (I) |
Jill Stein (GR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[36] | June 24, 2009 | 41% | 36% | – | – |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | July 15–21, 2009 | 30% | 20% | 30% | – |
| 35% | 41% | – | – | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | October 22, 2009 | 34% | 24% | 23% | – |
| Suffolk University[38] | November 4–8, 2009 | 38% | 15% | 26% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | November 23, 2009 | 33% | 28% | 25% | – |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | January 2–6, 2010 | 30% | 19% | 23% | – |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | January 7–9, 2010 | 29% | 27% | 21% | – |
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 33% | 25% | 23% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | March 8, 2010 | 35% | 32% | 19% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | April 5, 2010 | 35% | 27% | 23% | – |
| April 17 – Baker secures Republican nomination at convention; Mihos eliminated | |||||
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | May 10, 2010 | 45% | 31% | 14% | 1% |
| Suffolk University[40] | May 25, 2010 | 42% | 29% | 14% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[41] | June 21, 2010 | 41% | 34% | 16% | – |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[42] | June 17–23, 2010 | 38% | 31% | 9% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | July 22, 2010 | 38% | 32% | 17% | – |
| Statehouse News[44] | August 29–31, 2010 | 34% | 28% | 18% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | September 1, 2010 | 39% | 34% | 18% | – |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | September 17, 2010 | 45% | 42% | 5% | – |
| Suffolk University /7 News[45] | September 16–19, 2010 | 41% | 34% | 14% | 4% |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[46] | September 17–22, 2010 | 35% | 34% | 11% | 4% |
| Western New England College[47] | September 19–23, 2010 | 39% | 33% | 16% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | September 30, 2010 | 47% | 42% | 6% | – |
| Suffolk University 7 News[48] | October 10–12, 2010 | 46% | 39% | 10% | 1% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[49] | October 11–13, 2010 | 35% | 42% | 10% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | October 18, 2010 | 47% | 42% | 6% | – |
| Western New England College[50] | October 22, 2010 | 44% | 36% | 8% | 5% |
| Boston Globe[51] | October 24, 2010 | 43% | 39% | 8% | 2% |
| Suffolk University/7News[52] | October 25–27, 2010 | 46% | 39% | 9% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports[53] | October 27, 2010 | 46% | 44% | 6% | — |
| Western New England College[54] | October 24–28, 2010 | 42% | 37% | 11% | 3% |
| Results (for comparison) | [November 2, 2010] | [ 48.4% ] | [ 42.0% ] | [ 8.0% ] | [ 1.4% ] |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Deval Patrick | Christy Mihos | Jill Stein | Tim Cahill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[36] | June 24, 2009 | 40% | 41% | –– | –– |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | July 15–21, 2009 | 31% | 18% | –– | 31% |
| 40% | 41% | –– | –– | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[55] | August 20, 2009 | 35% | 40% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | October 22, 2009 | 34% | 23% | –– | 23% |
| Suffolk University[56] | November 4–8, 2009 | 36% | 20% | –– | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | November 23, 2009 | 32% | 26% | –– | 28% |
| The Boston Globe/UNH[19] | January 2–6, 2010 | 32% | 19% | –– | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | January 7–9, 2010 | 28% | 21% | –– | 25% |
| Suffolk University[8] | February 21–24, 2010 | 34% | 19% | 3% | 26% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | March 8, 2010 | 34% | 19% | –– | 30% |
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | April 5, 2010 | 38% | 15% | –– | 33% |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Grace Ross | Charlie Baker | Tim Cahill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[37] | May 10, 2010 | 27% | 32% | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
with Christy Mihos
with Grace Ross
Fundraising
As of October 31, 2010.[57] Shading indicates candidate with the highest amount.
| Candidate (Party) | Raised | Spent | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cahill (I) | $570,345.01 | $277,655.73 | $292,689.28 |
| Charlie Baker (R) | $736,877.30 | $491,089.99 | $245,787.31 |
| Deval Patrick (D) | $606,991.19 | $459,858.16 | $147,133.03 |
| Jill Stein (G) | $64,454.75 | $22,068.50 | $42,386.25 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Deval Patrick (incumbent) | 1,112,283 | 48.42 |  7.21 | |
| Republican | Charlie Baker | 964,866 | 42.00 |  6.67 | |
| Independent | Tim Cahill | 184,395 | 8.03 | 1.06 | |
| Green-Rainbow | Jill Stein | 32,895 | 1.43 | 0.51 | |
| Write-in | All others | 2,600 | 0.11 | 0.01 | |
| Total votes | 2,297,039 | ||||
| Blank | 22,924 | ||||
| Turnout | 2,319,963 | ||||
| Majority | 147,417 | 6.41 | |||
| Democratic hold | Swing | –13.88 | |||
By county
| 2010 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [59] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Patrick % | Patrick # | Baker % | Baker # | Others % | Others # | Total # |
| Barnstable | 43.8% | 47,124 | 47.0% | 50,609 | 9.2% | 9,876 | 107,609 |
| Berkshire | 70.3% | 30,269 | 21.5% | 9,266 | 8.2% | 3,527 | 43,062 |
| Bristol | 46.3% | 81,059 | 41.8% | 73,220 | 11.8% | 20,724 | 175,003 |
| Dukes | 57.6% | 4,908 | 32.3% | 2,757 | 10.1% | 862 | 8,527 |
| Essex | 43.2% | 116,360 | 47.5% | 127,964 | 9.3% | 25,148 | 269,472 |
| Franklin | 60.8% | 17,068 | 24.4% | 6,838 | 14.9% | 4,170 | 28,076 |
| Hampden | 45.4% | 62,816 | 39.5% | 54,653 | 15.1% | 20,857 | 138,326 |
| Hampshire | 58.4% | 33,317 | 28.0% | 15,994 | 13.6% | 7,752 | 57,063 |
| Middlesex | 50.8% | 283,221 | 40.6% | 226,272 | 8.7% | 48,481 | 557,974 |
| Nantucket | 50.7% | 2,454 | 38.2% | 1,846 | 11.1% | 538 | 4,838 |
| Norfolk | 43.80% | 119,806 | 43.81% | 119,850 | 12.4% | 33,882 | 273,538 |
| Plymouth | 38.3% | 74,355 | 49.8% | 96,592 | 11.9% | 23,105 | 194,052 |
| Suffolk | 67.0% | 125,961 | 24.9% | 46,822 | 8.1% | 15,292 | 188,075 |
| Worcester | 41.4% | 113,565 | 48.2% | 132,183 | 10.4% | 28,440 | 274,188 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Barnstable (largest municipality: Barnstable)
- Essex (largest municipality: Lynn)
- Norfolk (largest municipality: Quincy)
- Plymouth (largest municipality: Brockton)
- Worcester (largest municipality: Worcester)
See also
References
External links
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