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The 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State Senator Daniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since 1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat.
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 County results Bunning: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Mongiardo: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Former Governor Paul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in the Democratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled on Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and State Senator from Hazard, Kentucky.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo | 142,162 | 64.92% | |
| Democratic | David L. Williams | 76,807 | 35.08% | |
| Total votes | 218,969 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Bunning (incumbent) | 96,545 | 84.00% | |
| Republican | Barry Metcalf | 18,395 | 16.00% | |
| Total votes | 114,940 | 100.00% | ||
During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife.[3][4]
Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf.
The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is on Central Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of President George W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Lean R | November 1, 2004 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Bunning (incumbent) | 873,507 | 50.66% | +0.91% | |
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo | 850,855 | 49.34% | +0.18% | |
| Turnout | 1,724,362 | ||||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
| County | Bunning | Votes | Mongiardo | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 69% | 4,857 | 31% | 2,151 |
| Allen | 70% | 4,640 | 30% | 2,030 |
| Anderson | 51% | 4,676 | 49% | 4,540 |
| Ballard | 43% | 1,752 | 57% | 2,331 |
| Barren | 58% | 8,749 | 42% | 6,459 |
| Bath | 37% | 1,673 | 63% | 2,910 |
| Bell | 44% | 4,442 | 56% | 5,646 |
| Boone | 71% | 31,162 | 29% | 12,543 |
| Bourbon | 46% | 3,614 | 54% | 4,250 |
| Boyd | 49% | 10,181 | 51% | 10,713 |
| Boyle | 52% | 6,179 | 48% | 5,806 |
| Bracken | 66% | 2,249 | 34% | 1,183 |
| Breathitt | 28% | 1,607 | 72% | 4,201 |
| Breckinridge | 57% | 4,633 | 43% | 3,550 |
| Bullitt | 57% | 15,675 | 43% | 11,913 |
| Butler | 70% | 3,665 | 30% | 1,601 |
| Caldwell | 50% | 3,025 | 50% | 3,034 |
| Calloway | 51% | 7,456 | 49% | 7,063 |
| Campbell | 64% | 24,603 | 36% | 14,079 |
| Carlisle | 48% | 1,327 | 52% | 1,412 |
| Carroll | 48% | 1,788 | 52% | 1,971 |
| Carter | 45% | 4,794 | 55% | 5,754 |
| Casey | 75% | 4,483 | 25% | 1,476 |
| Christian | 63% | 12,331 | 37% | 7,304 |
| Clark | 48% | 7,047 | 52% | 7,559 |
| Clay | 62% | 4,336 | 38% | 2,643 |
| Clinton | 77% | 3,094 | 23% | 937 |
| Crittenden | 55% | 2,214 | 45% | 1,813 |
| Cumberland | 73% | 2,103 | 27% | 782 |
| Daviess | 51% | 20,148 | 49% | 19,739 |
| Edmonson | 62% | 3,165 | 38% | 1,942 |
| Elliott | 28% | 801 | 72% | 2,025 |
| Estill | 55% | 2,892 | 45% | 2,414 |
| Fayette | 41% | 50,209 | 59% | 70,798 |
| Fleming | 52% | 3,080 | 48% | 2,815 |
| Floyd | 29% | 5,015 | 71% | 12,092 |
| Franklin | 34% | 7,998 | 66% | 15,324 |
| Fulton | 46% | 1,237 | 54% | 1,426 |
| Gallatin | 59% | 1,736 | 41% | 1,184 |
| Garrard | 60% | 3,767 | 40% | 2,556 |
| Grant | 65% | 5,497 | 35% | 3,007 |
| Graves | 48% | 7,448 | 52% | 8,036 |
| Grayson | 62% | 5,894 | 38% | 3,618 |
| Green | 68% | 3,324 | 32% | 1,556 |
| Greenup | 50% | 7,804 | 50% | 7,874 |
| Hancock | 48% | 1,834 | 52% | 2,010 |
| Hardin | 57% | 19,916 | 43% | 14,910 |
| Harlan | 31% | 3,340 | 69% | 7,265 |
| Harrison | 50% | 3,738 | 50% | 3,702 |
| Hart | 56% | 3,518 | 44% | 2,785 |
| Henderson | 47% | 8,419 | 53% | 9,490 |
| Henry | 52% | 3,266 | 48% | 3,024 |
| Hickman | 49% | 1,093 | 51% | 1,159 |
| Hopkins | 56% | 10,161 | 44% | 7,930 |
| Jackson | 78% | 3,755 | 22% | 1,070 |
| Jefferson | 40% | 134,699 | 60% | 198,541 |
| Jessamine | 56% | 10,002 | 44% | 7,730 |
| Johnson | 59% | 5,242 | 41% | 3,711 |
| Kenton | 65% | 42,158 | 35% | 22,759 |
| Knott | 19% | 1,345 | 81% | 5,811 |
| Knox | 59% | 6,685 | 41% | 4,591 |
| LaRue | 60% | 3,429 | 40% | 2,241 |
| Laurel | 67% | 14,427 | 33% | 7,014 |
| Lawrence | 54% | 3,322 | 46% | 2,790 |
| Lee | 59% | 1,606 | 41% | 1,126 |
| Leslie | 51% | 2,438 | 49% | 2,339 |
| Letcher | 32% | 2,751 | 68% | 5,884 |
| Lewis | 70% | 3,562 | 30% | 1,509 |
| Lincoln | 57% | 4,870 | 43% | 3,695 |
| Livingston | 45% | 2,025 | 55% | 2,520 |
| Logan | 59% | 5,847 | 41% | 4,099 |
| Lyon | 45% | 1,680 | 55% | 2,082 |
| Madison | 50% | 14,743 | 50% | 14,790 |
| Magoffin | 43% | 2,100 | 57% | 2,816 |
| Marion | 41% | 2,881 | 59% | 4,112 |
| Marshall | 48% | 7,191 | 52% | 7,937 |
| Martin | 65% | 2,744 | 35% | 1,497 |
| Mason | 59% | 3,884 | 41% | 2,748 |
| McCracken | 52% | 14,934 | 48% | 13,940 |
| McCreary | 71% | 3,603 | 29% | 1,501 |
| McLean | 49% | 2,078 | 51% | 2,179 |
| Meade | 53% | 5,574 | 47% | 5,000 |
| Menifee | 39% | 946 | 61% | 1,484 |
| Mercer | 53% | 5,019 | 47% | 4,534 |
| Metcalfe | 58% | 2,260 | 42% | 1,608 |
| Monroe | 77% | 3,940 | 23% | 1,156 |
| Montgomery | 43% | 4,130 | 57% | 5,558 |
| Morgan | 39% | 1,800 | 61% | 2,758 |
| Muhlenberg | 44% | 5,604 | 56% | 7,178 |
| Nelson | 48% | 7,754 | 52% | 8,300 |
| Nicholas | 43% | 1,236 | 57% | 1,638 |
| Ohio | 56% | 5,371 | 44% | 4,202 |
| Oldham | 59% | 15,751 | 41% | 10,731 |
| Owen | 58% | 2,637 | 42% | 1,909 |
| Owsley | 63% | 1,142 | 37% | 660 |
| Pendleton | 65% | 3,824 | 35% | 2,042 |
| Perry | 23% | 2,620 | 77% | 8,659 |
| Pike | 39% | 9,672 | 61% | 15,293 |
| Powell | 41% | 1,961 | 59% | 2,806 |
| Pulaski | 67% | 16,053 | 33% | 7,848 |
| Robertson | 54% | 559 | 46% | 468 |
| Rockcastle | 69% | 3,956 | 31% | 1,812 |
| Rowan | 40% | 3,388 | 60% | 5,032 |
| Russell | 69% | 5,092 | 31% | 2,242 |
| Scott | 49% | 8,126 | 51% | 8,364 |
| Shelby | 54% | 8,544 | 46% | 7,269 |
| Simpson | 56% | 3,665 | 44% | 2,938 |
| Spencer | 57% | 3,799 | 43% | 2,821 |
| Taylor | 63% | 6,119 | 37% | 3,643 |
| Todd | 63% | 2,696 | 37% | 1,550 |
| Trigg | 58% | 3,354 | 42% | 2,457 |
| Trimble | 50% | 1,865 | 50% | 1,852 |
| Union | 49% | 2,791 | 51% | 2,880 |
| Warren | 56% | 21,258 | 44% | 16,457 |
| Washington | 56% | 2,761 | 44% | 2,146 |
| Wayne | 60% | 4,214 | 40% | 2,783 |
| Webster | 48% | 2,490 | 52% | 2,738 |
| Whitley | 64% | 8,082 | 36% | 4,620 |
| Wolfe | 33% | 911 | 67% | 1,856 |
| Woodford | 44% | 4,887 | 56% | 6,196 |
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