2003 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

The 2003 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 25 May 2003, to elect the 6th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 47 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2003 Castilian-Manchegan regional election

← 1999 25 May 2003 2007 →
All 47 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha 24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,448,289 2.5%
Turnout	1,104,118 (76.2%) 1.3 pp
First party Second party   Leader José Bono Adolfo Suárez Illana Party PSOE PP Leader since 25 March 1983 26 May 2002 Leader's seat Toledo Albacete Last election 26 seats, 53.4% 21 seats, 40.4% Seats won 29 18 Seat change 3 3 Popular vote 634,132 402,047 Percentage 57.8% 36.7% Swing 4.4 pp 3.7 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha
President before election José Bono PSOE Elected President José Bono PSOE

The election was won again by the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which obtained its best historical result and the largest overall majority ever in the region, with nearly 58% of the share and over 3/5 of the seats. It became, at the time, the largest vote share obtained by any party in a regional election in Spain;^[1] a record which would be exceeded by the PP results in Murcia in 2007 and 2011. The opposition People's Party (PP), despite naming former Spanish Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez' son, Adolfo Suárez Illana, as its presidential candidate, continued its decline in the region and obtained its worst election result since 1987, with only 18 seats.

As a result, José Bono was elected for his sixth and last term in office, which he would not complete. He would resign in 2004 after being appointed Minister of Defence in José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's Cabinet, as a result of the PSOE winning the 2004 general election. Bono would be succeeded as regional premier by his deputy since 1999, José María Barreda.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Junta of Communities.^[2] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 47 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.^[3] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo. Each constituency was allocated a fixed number of seats: 10 for Albacete, 11 for Ciudad Real, 8 for Cuenca, 7 for Guadalajara and 11 for Toledo.^[2][4]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.^[4][5][6]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expired four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 13 June 1999, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 25 May 2003.^[2][4][5][6]

The President of the Junta of Communities had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.^[2]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 24 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				Lead
2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—	76.3	57.8 29	36.7 18	3.0 0	21.1
Sigma Dos/Antena 3[p 1]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 26/29	? 18/21	–	?
Ipsos–Eco/RTVE[p 2]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 28/30	? 17/19	–	?
CIS[p 3][p 4]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	2,343	79.4	57.4 30	35.4 17	4.2 0	22.0
Synovate/JCCM[p 5][p 6]	25–31 Mar 2003	4,600	?	52.4	29.9	–	22.5
CIS[p 7][p 8][p 9][p 10]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	536	79.5	54.6	39.6	3.2	15.0
Inner Social Dynamics[p 11][p 12]	18–30 Sep 2002	2,009	?	58.1 28	37.8 19	3.7 0	20.3
Inner Social Dynamics[p 13][p 14][p 12]	10–13 Jun 2002	803	?	55.5 27	40.0 20	3.0 0	15.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 15][p 16][p 12]	28 Mar 2002	?	?	54.5	39.4	–	15.1
Inner Social Dynamics[p 17][p 12]	19 Oct 2001	?	?	57.5	38.9	–	18.6
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	—	76.3	40.8 20	52.4 27	4.3 0	11.6
1999 regional election	13 Jun 1999	—	74.9	53.4 26	40.4 21	3.4 0	13.0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 May 2003 Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	634,132	57.83	+4.41	29	+3
	People's Party (PP)	402,047	36.66	–3.74	18	–3
	United Left–Left of Castilla–La Mancha (IU–ICAM)	33,413	3.05	–0.36	0	±0
	Commoners' Land–Castilian Nationalist Party (TC–PNC)	2,187	0.20	+0.03	0	±0
	The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV)	1,684	0.15	+0.05	0	±0
	Independents for Cuenca (ixC)	1,658	0.15	New	0	±0
	Castilian Unity (UdCa)	1,344	0.12	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	866	0.08	New	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	802	0.07	New	0	±0
	Castilian Left (IzCa)	621	0.06	New	0	±0
	Independent Regional Unity (URI)	580	0.05	–0.01	0	±0
	Regionalist Party of Guadalajara (PRGU)	517	0.05	±0.00	0	±0
	Spanish Democratic Party (PADE)	498	0.05	–0.05	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	492	0.04	–0.05	0	±0
	The Phalanx (FE)	472	0.04	New	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	467	0.04	New	0	±0
	Authentic Phalanx (FA)	250	0.02	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		14,554	1.33	–0.09
Total		1,096,584			47	±0
Valid votes		1,096,584	99.32	±0.00
Invalid votes		7,534	0.68	±0.00
Votes cast / turnout		1,104,118	76.24	+1.39
Abstentions		344,171	23.76	–1.39
Registered voters		1,448,289
Sources[7][8][9]

Popular vote PSOE   57.83% PP   36.66% IU–ICAM   3.05% Others   1.13% Blank ballots   1.33%

Seats PSOE   61.70% PP   38.30%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP
	%	S	%	S
Albacete	58.0	6	36.4	4
Ciudad Real	60.4	7	34.6	4
Cuenca	54.0	5	40.7	3
Guadalajara	52.4	4	39.4	3
Toledo	58.8	7	36.1	4
Total	57.8	29	36.7	18
Sources[7][8][9]

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture José Bono (PSOE)
Ballot →		26 June 2003
Required majority →		24 out of 47 Y
	Yes • PSOE (29)	29 / 47
	No • PP (18)	18 / 47
	Abstentions	0 / 47
	Absentees	0 / 47
Sources[9]

2004 investiture

Investiture José María Barreda (PSOE)
Ballot →		27 April 2004
Required majority →		24 out of 47 Y
	Yes • PSOE (29)	29 / 47
	No • PP (18)	18 / 47
	Abstentions	0 / 47
	Absentees	0 / 47
Sources[9]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El sondeo de Sigma Dos determina una lucha codo a codo entre populares y socialistas en Madrid". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 May 2003. Archived from the original on 25 May 2019. Retrieved 19 May 2019.
2. "Sondeo a pie de urna de Ipsos Eco Consulting para TVE". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 25 May 2003. Archived from the original on 7 December 2017. Retrieved 5 January 2018.
3. "Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas, 2003. CA de Castilla–La Mancha (Estudio nº 2489. Marzo-Abril 2003)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 17 May 2003.
4. "La guerra pasa factura electoral al PP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 18 May 2003.
5. "Si hoy se celebraran elecciones Bono ganaría por una diferencia de 22,5 puntos". JCCM (in Spanish). 28 April 2003.
6. "ABC Hemeroteca". ABC (in Spanish). 28 April 2003.
7. "Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de Castilla–La Mancha (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
8. "El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
9. "El CIS confirma que José Bono ampliaría su mayoría si hoy se celebraran elecciones". JCCM (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
10. "El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS". ABC (in Spanish). 20 November 2002.
11. "Las encuestas irrumpen en la incipiente batalla electoral de Castilla–La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 29 October 2002.
12. "José Bono ampliaría su mayoría absoluta en la región". La Cerca (in Spanish). 1 November 2002.
13. "Bono ampliará su mayoría absoluta en Castilla–La Mancha, según Localia TV". El País (in Spanish). 26 June 2002.
14. "Habla, pueblo, habla". La Voz de Talavera (in Spanish). 26 June 2002.
15. "Bono supera en más de 15 puntos al PP en Castilla–La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 28 March 2002.
16. "Conde quita credibilidad a la encuesta que da una ventaja de 15 puntos al PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 31 March 2002.
17. "El Ejecutivo regional superaría en 20 puntos al PP si se celebraran elecciones autonómicas en este momento". JCCM (in Spanish). 19 October 2001.

Other

1. "Bono strengthens his stronghold and highlights the absence of the Iraq war in his campaign" (in Spanish). El País. 2003-05-26.
2. Statute of Autonomy of Castilla–La Mancha of 1982. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 9) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
4. Castilla–La Mancha Electoral Law of 1986. Official Journal of Castilla–La Mancha (Law 5) (in Spanish). 23 December 1986. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
5. General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
6. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
7. "Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha election results, 25 May 2003" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Castilla–La Mancha. 13 June 2003. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
8. "VI Legislature. Regional election, 25 May 2003". www.cortesclm.es (in Spanish). Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha. Retrieved 29 September 2017.
9. "Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2017.