2002 Arizona gubernatorial election

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2002 Arizona gubernatorial election

The 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican governor Jane Dee Hull was term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, a former U.S. Representative. Upon her inauguration, Napolitano became the first woman to succeed another woman as governor of a state. Until 2022, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona in which the margin of victory was single-digit.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2002 Arizona gubernatorial election

 1998 November 5, 2002 2006 
Turnout56.33%[1]
 
Nominee Janet Napolitano Matt Salmon Richard Mahoney
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Popular vote 566,284 554,465 84,947
Percentage 46.2% 45.2% 6.9%

County results
Napolitano:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Salmon:      40–50%      50–60%

Governor before election

Jane Dee Hull
Republican

Elected Governor

Janet Napolitano
Democratic

Close
Republican primary results by county
  Salmon
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results by county
  Napolitano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Gutierrez
  •   30–40%
Libertarian primary results by county
  Hess
  •   50-60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Fallon
  •   50–60%
  Tie

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined to run

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Salmon 174,055 55.99%
Republican Betsey Bayless 92,473 29.75%
Republican Carol Springer 44,333 14.26%
Republican Steve Moore (write-in) 16 0.01%
Republican Diana Kennedy (write-in) 8 0.00%
Total votes 310,885 100.00%
Close

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Janet Napolitano 128,702 57.23%
Democratic Alfredo Gutierrez 50,377 22.40%
Democratic Mark Osterloh 31,422 13.97%
Democratic Mike Newcomb 14,373 6.39%
Total votes 224,874 100.00%
Close

Libertarian primary

Candidates

  • Gary Fallon
  • Barry Ness

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
Libertarian primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess 1,414 51.01%
Libertarian Gary Fallon 1,358 48.99%
Total votes 2,772 100.00%
Close

General election

Summarize
Perspective

Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[4] Tossup October 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2002
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Janet
Napolitano (D)
Matt
Salmon (R)
Richard
Mahoney (I)
Barry
Hess (L)
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA[6] October 29–31, 2002 661 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 41% 11% 3% 1%
Close

Results

The election was extremely close: Napolitano won by just 11,819 votes out of 1,226,111 cast, the closest gubernatorial election in Arizona in many years. Napolitano also won without carrying Maricopa County. Under Arizonan law, the losing candidate may request a recount, for which that candidate must pay, if the margin of victory is less than one percent but greater than half of one percent. In 2002, the margin of victory in 2002 was 1.0%, barely allowing a recount.

It soon became apparent that Napolitano had won the election and would be the next governor of Arizona. Salmon acknowledged that the chance of his prevailing in a recount was extremely small and decided not to ask for one (recounts seldom see a swing over 1,000 votes;[citation needed] he was losing by over 10,000). He officially called Napolitano on November 17 and congratulated her on her victory.

On November 20, Arizona Secretary of State Betsey Bayless certified the results of the election and declared Napolitano the governor-elect.

More information Party, Candidate ...
Arizona gubernatorial election, 2002[7]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Janet Napolitano 566,284 46.19% +10.66%
Republican Matt Salmon 554,465 45.22% −15.72%
Independent Richard D. Mahoney 84,947 6.93%
Libertarian Barry Hess 20,356 1.66% −1.01%
Independent Carlton Rahmani (write-in) 29 0.00%
Independent Tracey Sturgess (write-in) 15 0.00%
Independent Naida Axford (write-in) 5 0.00%
Independent Raymond Caplette (write-in) 5 0.00%
Independent D'Herrera Tapia (write-in) 4 0.00%
Independent L. D. Talbow (write-in) 1 0.00%
Majority 11,819 0.96%
Total votes 1,226,111 100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican Swing +26.38%
Close

Results by county

More information County, Janet Napolitano Democratic ...
County Janet Napolitano
Democratic
Matt Salmon
Republican
Richard D. Mahoney
Independent
Barry Hess
Libertarian
All others
Write-in
Margin Total votes
cast[7]
#  % #  % #  % #  % #  % #  %
Apache 10,927 61.22% 4,041 22.64% 2,516 14.10% 365 2.04% 1 0.01% 6,886 38.58% 17,850
Cochise 11,401 41.08% 13,210 47.60% 2,713 9.78% 426 1.53% 4 0.01% -1,809 -6.52% 27,754
Coconino 18,928 54.89% 11,585 33.59% 3,260 9.45% 709 2.06% 3 0.01% 7,343 21.29% 34,485
Gila 7,331 47.44% 6,336 41.00% 1,467 9.49% 317 2.05% 1 0.01% 995 6.44% 15,452
Graham 2,924 36.64% 4,491 56.27% 467 5.85% 99 1.24% 0 0.00% -1,567 -19.63% 7,981
Greenlee 966 44.91% 955 44.40% 180 8.37% 50 2.32% 0 0.00% 11 0.51% 2,151
La Paz 1,488 41.04% 1,766 48.70% 259 7.14% 113 3.12% 0 0.00% -278 -7.67% 3,626
Maricopa 313,107 44.43% 337,954 47.95% 42,696 6.06% 10,966 1.56% 27 0.00% -24,847 -3.53% 704,750
Mohave 13,227 37.59% 18,431 52.38% 2,889 8.21% 639 1.82% 0 0.00% -5,204 -14.79% 35,186
Navajo 11,669 49.74% 9,423 40.17% 1,920 8.18% 444 1.89% 2 0.01% 2,246 9.57% 23,458
Pima 118,896 51.74% 89,002 38.73% 17,751 7.72% 4,140 1.80% 14 0.01% 29,894 13.01% 229,803
Pinal 18,300 48.13% 16,380 43.08% 2,658 6.99% 682 1.79% 3 0.01% 1,920 5.05% 38,023
Santa Cruz 3,675 57.93% 2,069 32.61% 495 7.80% 105 1.66% 0 0.00% 1,606 25.32% 6,344
Yavapai 23,238 40.50% 28,245 49.23% 4,866 8.48% 1,024 1.78% 3 0.01% -5,007 -8.73% 57,376
Yuma 10,207 46.67% 10,577 48.36% 810 3.70% 277 1.27% 1 0.00% -370 -1.69% 21,872
Totals566,28446.19%554,46545.22%84,9476.93%20,3561.66%590.00%11,8190.96%1,226,111
Close

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

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