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The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Bill Haslam was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean.
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| Turnout | 54.46%  [1] 20.49 pp | ||||||||||||||||
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     Lee: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Dean: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[2]
During the general election, Dean flipped back reliably Democratic Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby Counties, which voted for Republican governor Bill Haslam in 2010.
The results of the election marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.
As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws.[3]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Black |
Randy Boyd |
Beth Harwell |
Bill Lee |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | July 18–21, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 26% | 1%[64] | 17% |
| Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | July 11–14, 2018 | 266 | ± 6.4% | 27% | 22% | 14% | 19% | 3% | 14% |
| Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 27–30, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 24% | 23% | 10% | 19% | – | 24% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | June 25–28, 2018 | 1,040 | ± 3.1% | 27% | 33% | 7% | 20% | – | 13% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) | May 14–17, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 28% | 8% | 9% | – | 15% |
| Grassroots Targeting (R-Black) | May 4–6, 2018 | 800 | – | 41% | 26% | 6% | 11% | – | 15% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) | April 2018 | – | – | 33% | 30% | 5% | 13% | – | – |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) | March 2018 | – | – | 31% | 31% | 10% | 10% | – | – |
| TargetPoint/GQR | March 7–14, 2018 | 390 | ± 5.0% | 25% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 2%[65] | 37% |
| North Star Onion Research (R-Lee) | February 5–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 22% | 25% | 4% | 18% | – | 30% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | December 12–18, 2017 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 4%[66] | 53% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Lee | 291,414 | 36.75 | |
| Republican | Randy Boyd | 193,054 | 24.35 | |
| Republican | Diane Black | 182,457 | 23.01 | |
| Republican | Beth Harwell | 121,484 | 15.32 | |
| Republican | Kay White | 3,215 | 0.41 | |
| Republican | Basil Marceaux | 1,264 | 0.16 | |
| Total votes | 792,888 | 100.0 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Karl Dean |
Craig Fitzhugh |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | July 11–14, 2018 | 206 | ± 7.3% | 44% | 14% | 9% | 33% |
| TargetPoint/GQR | March 7–14, 2018 | 288 | ± 5.8% | 41% | 11% | – | 44% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Karl Dean | 280,553 | 75.14 | |
| Democratic | Craig Fitzhugh | 72,553 | 23.42 | |
| Democratic | Mezianne Vale Payne | 20,284 | 5.44 | |
| Total votes | 373,390 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[94] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[95] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[96] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[97] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[98] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[99] | Likely R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[100] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[101][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[102] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[103] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Lee (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | October 28–31, 2018 | 480 | – | 53% | 44% | – | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 28–30, 2018 | 621 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 41% | 2% | 3% |
| Fox News | October 27–30, 2018 | 718 LV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 37% | 2% | 7% |
| 850 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 36% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–29, 2018 | 780 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 44% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 764 LV | ± 4.3% | 52% | 42% | 0% | 4% |
| 871 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 0% | 5% | ||
| East Tennessee State University Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 22–29, 2018 | 495 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 5% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 497 | ± 4.4% | 59% | 36% | 3% | 2% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 471 LV | ± 5.7% | 57% | 40% | 1% | 3% |
| 764 RV | ± 4.4% | 56% | 39% | 1% | 4% | ||
| Vanderbilt University/SSRS | October 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 37% | 0% | 12% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 9–12, 2018 | 558 LV | – | 56% | 44% | – | – |
| 801 RV | – | 49% | 39% | – | 12% | ||
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 8–11, 2018 | 593 | ± 4.2% | 59% | 33% | – | 8% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 666 LV | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 1% | 10% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | 52% | 35% | 1% | 10% | ||
| SurveyMonkey | September 9–24, 2018 | 1,609 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 35% | – | 19% |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 16–18, 2018 | 567 | ± 4.1% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 723 LV | ± 4.3% | 52% | 43% | 0% | 3% |
| 852 RV | ± 3.9% | 49% | 43% | 0% | 5% | ||
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | September 10–12, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 37% | – | 9% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 686 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 35% | 1% | 10% |
| 809 RV | ± 3.5% | 52% | 34% | 2% | 12% | ||
| Marist College | August 25–28, 2018 | 538 LV | ± 5.1% | 53% | 40% | 1% | 7% |
| 730 RV | ± 4.5% | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
| Gravis Marketing | August 9–11, 2018 | 620 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 40% | – | 9% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Black (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | July 11–14, 2018 | 657 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 39% | 27% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 31% | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Boyd (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | July 11–14, 2018 | 657 | ± 4.1% | 34% | 36% | 30% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 35% | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Beth Harwell (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 25% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 33% | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Black (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Boyd (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Beth Harwell (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mae Beavers (R) |
Karl Dean (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 21–24, 2018 | 1,003 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 36% | 28% |
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 32% | 37% | 32% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mae Beavers (R) |
Craig Fitzhugh (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | December 11–12, 2017 | 563 | ± 4.1% | 36% | 29% | 34% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Lee | 1,336,106 | 59.56% | −10.75% | |
| Democratic | Karl Dean | 864,863 | 38.55% | +15.71% | |
| Other | Other candidates | 42,314 | 1.89% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,243,294 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Lee | 1,336,106 | 59.6 | |
| Democratic | Karl Dean | 864,863 | 38.6 | |
| Independent | Sherry L. Clark | 5,198 | 0.2 | |
| Independent | Mark Wright | 4,687 | 0.2 | |
| Independent | Patrick Whitlock | 3,631 | 0.2 | |
| Independent | Yvonne Neubert | 3,070 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Heather Scott | 2,969 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Mark CoonRippy Brown | 2,841 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Joe B. Wilmoth | 2,444 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | George Blackwell Smith IV | 1,550 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Cory King | 1,502 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Tracy C. Yaste Tisdale | 1,396 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Justin Cornett | 1,217 | 0.1 | |
| Independent | Chad Riden | 1,096 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Robert Sawyers Sr. | 1,059 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Vinnie Vineyard | 1,012 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Rick Tyler | 981 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Gabriel Fancher | 869 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Sean Bruce Fleming | 814 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Alfred Shawn Rapoza | 800 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Jessie D. McDonald | 755 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Toney Randall Mitchell | 739 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Mike Toews | 726 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Matthew Koch | 652 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Jeremy Allen Stephenson | 613 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Tommy Ray McAnally | 609 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Jaron D. Weidner | 588 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | William Andrew Helmstetter | 496 | 0.0 | |
| Independent | Eddie Murphy (write-in) | 11 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 2,243,294 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
Lee won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[105]
| District | Lee | Dean | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 76.2% | 22.7% | Phil Roe |
| 2nd | 63.5% | 35.4% | Jimmy Duncan (115th Congress) |
| Tim Burchett (116th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 64.0% | 35.0% | Chuck Fleischmann |
| 4th | 66.0% | 33.0% | Scott DesJarlais |
| 5th | 35.6% | 59.3% | Jim Cooper |
| 6th | 69.7% | 29.3% | Diane Black (115th Congress) |
| John Rose (116th Congress) | |||
| 7th | 65.4% | 32.6% | Marsha Blackburn (115th Congress) |
| Mark Green (116th Congress) | |||
| 8th | 66.5% | 32.2% | David Kustoff |
| 9th | 21.5% | 74.9% | Steve Cohen |
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