Micromort
Unit of risk – one-in-a-million chance of death From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A micromort (from micro- and mortality) is a unit of risk defined as a one-in-a-million chance of death.[1][2] Micromorts can be used to measure the riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus, a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was introduced by Ronald A. Howard who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis.[3]
Micromorts for future activities can only be rough assessments, as specific circumstances will always have an impact. However, past historical rates of events can be used to provide a rough estimate.
Sample values
Summarize
Perspective
Baseline
| Death from | Context | Time period | N deaths | N population | Micromorts per unit of exposure | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All causes | England and Wales | 2012 | 499,331 | 56,567,000 | 24 per day 8,800 per year |
ONS Deaths[4] Table 5. |
| Canada | 2011 | 242,074 | 33,476,688 | 20 per day 7,200 per year |
Statistics Canada[5] | |
| US | 2010 | 2,468,435 | 308,500,000 | 22 per day 8,000 per year |
CDC Deaths[6] Table 18. | |
| Non-natural cause | England and Wales | 2012 | 17,462 | 56,567,000 | 0.8 per day 300 per year |
ONS Deaths[4] Table 5.19. |
| US | 2010 | 180,000 | 308,500,000 | 1.6 per day 580 per year |
CDC Deaths[6] Table 18 | |
| Non-natural cause (excluding suicide) | England and Wales | 2012 | 12,955 | 56,567,000 | 0.6 per day 230 per year |
ONS Suicides[7] |
| US | 2010 | 142,000 | 308,500,000 | 1.3 per day 460 per year |
CDC Deaths[6] Table 18. | |
| All causes – first day of life | England and Wales | 2007 | 430 per first day of life | Walker, 2014[8] | ||
| US | 2013 | 16.7 per day 6100 per year |
CDC Life Tables[9] Blastland & Spiegelhalter, 2014[10] | |||
| Murder/homicide | England and Wales | 2012/13 | 551 | 56,567,000 | 10 per year | ONS Crime[11] |
| Homicide | Canada | 2011 | 527 | 33,476,688 | 15 per year | Statistics Canada[12] |
| Murder and non-negligent manslaughter | US | 2012 | 14,173 | 292,000,000 | 48 per year | FBI[13] Table 16 |
Leisure and sport
| Death from | Context | Time period | N deaths | N exposure | Micromorts per unit of exposure | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scuba diving | UK: BSAC members | 1998–2009 | 75 | 14,000,000 dives | 5 per dive | BSAC[14] |
| UK: non-BSAC | 1998–2009 | 122 | 12,000,000 dives | 10 per dive | BSAC[14] | |
| US – insured members of DAN | 2000–2006 | 187 | 1,131,367 members | 164 per year as member of DAN 5 per dive |
DAN[15] p75 | |
| Paragliding | Turkey | 2004–2011 | 18 | 242,355 flights | 74 per launch | Canbek 2015[16] |
| Skiing | US | 2008/9 | 39 | 57,000,000 days skiing | 0.7 per day | Ski-injury.com[17][unreliable source] |
| Skydiving | US | 2000–2016 | 413 | 48,600,000 jumps | 8 per jump | USPA[18] |
| UK | 1994–2013 | 41 | 4,864,268 jumps | 8 per jump | BPA[19] | |
| BASE jumping | Kjerag Massif, Norway | 1995–2005 | 9 | 20,850 jumps | 430 per jump | Soreide 2007[20] |
| Mountaineering | Ascent to Matterhorn | 1981–2011 | 213 | about 75,000 ascents
(about 2500 per year) |
about 2,840 per ascent attempt | Bachmann 2012[21] |
| Ascent to Mt. Everest | 1922–2012 | 223 | 5,656 successful ascents | 37,932 per successful ascent | NASA 2013[22] |
Travel
Activities that increase the death risk by roughly one micromort, and their associated cause of death:
- Travelling 6 miles (9.7 km) by motorcycle (collision)[23]
- Travelling 17 miles (27 km) by walking (collision)[23]
- Travelling 10 miles (16 km)[24] or 20 miles (32 km)[23] by bicycle (collision)[a]
- Travelling 230 miles (370 km) by car (collision) (or 250 miles)[23]
- Travelling 1,000 miles (1,600 km) by jet airplane (collision)[24]
- Travelling 6,000 miles (10,000 km) by train (collision)[26]
Other
Increase in death risk for other activities on a per-event basis:
- Hang gliding – 8 micromorts per flight[23]
- Ecstasy (MDMA) – 0.5 micromorts per tablet, rising to 13 if using other drugs[27][28]
- Giving birth (vaginal) – 120 micromorts[29]
- Giving birth (caesarean) – 170 micromorts[29]
- AstraZeneca vaccination against COVID-19 – 2.9 micromorts[30]
- COVID-19 infection at age 10 – 20 micromorts
- COVID-19 infection at age 25 – 100 micromorts
- COVID-19 infection at age 55 – 4,000 micromorts
- COVID-19 infection at age 65 – 14,000 micromorts
- COVID-19 infection at age 75 – 46,000 micromorts
- COVID-19 infection at age 85 – 150,000 micromorts (As of December 2020[update])[31]
Value of a micromort
Summarize
Perspective
Willingness to pay
An application of micromorts is measuring the value that humans place on risk. For example, a person can consider the amount of money they would be willing to pay to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death (or conversely, the amount of money they would receive to accept a one-in-a-million chance of death). When offered this situation, people claim a high number. However, when looking at their day-to-day actions (e.g., how much they are willing to pay for safety features on cars), a typical value for a micromort is around $50 (in 2009).[32][33] This is not to say the $50 valuation should be taken to mean that a human life (1 million micromorts) is valued at $50,000,000. Rather, people are less inclined to spend money after a certain point to increase their safety. This means that analyzing risk using the micromort is more useful when using small risks, not necessarily large ones.[33]
Value of a statistical life
Government agencies use a nominal Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) – or Value for Preventing a Fatality (VPF) – to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of expenditure on safeguards. For example, in the UK, the VSL is £1 million GBP in 1997 value (equivalent to £2 million in 2023[34]).[35] Since road improvements have the effect of lowering the risk of large numbers of people by a small amount, the UK Department for Transport essentially prices a reduction of 1 micromort at £1.60. The US Department of Transportation uses a VSL of US$6.2 million, pricing a micromort at US$6.20.[36]
Chronic risks
Micromorts are best used to measure the size of acute risks, i.e. immediate deaths. Risks from lifestyle, exposure to air pollution, and so on are chronic risks, in that they do not kill straight away, but reduce life expectancy. Ron Howard included such risks in his original 1979 work,[24] for example, an additional one micromort from:
- Drinking 0.5 liter of wine (cirrhosis of the liver)[24]
- Smoking 1.4 cigarettes (cancer, heart disease)[24]
- Spending 1 hour in a coal mine (black lung disease)[24]
- Spending 3 hours in a coal mine (accident)[24]
- Living 2 days in New York or Boston in 1979 (air pollution)[24]
- Living 2 months with a smoker (cancer, heart disease)[24]
- Drinking Miami water for 1 year (cancer from chloroform)[24]
- Eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks (cancer from benzopyrene)[24]
- Traveling 6000 miles (10,000 km) by jet (cancer due to increased background radiation)[37]
Such risks are better expressed using the related concept of a microlife.
See also
- Decision analysis – Discipline covering formal decision making
- Decision theory – Branch of applied probability theory
- Ellsberg paradox – Paradox in decision theory
- List of unusual units of measurement
- Microlife – Unit of risk – half an hour of life expectancy
- Pascal's Wager – Argument regarding the belief in God
- Precautionary principle – Risk management strategy
- Risk of ruin – Concept in gambling, insurance, and finance
Notes
- however due to the health effects of cycling the net effect of cycling on life expectancy is likely positive in most cases[25]
References
Further reading
External links
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