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Impact of global warming on Turkey and adaptation to it From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Droughts and heatwaves are the main hazards due to the climate of Turkey getting hotter.[4][5] The temperature has risen by more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F),[6][2] and there is more extreme weather.[7]
Current greenhouse gas emissions are over 1% of the global total,[8] and energy policy includes subsidizing both fossil gas[9] and coal.[10] Annual per person emissions since the late-2010s have varied around six and a half tonnes,[11] which is about the global average.[12] However historical emissions are less than 1% of the global total.[13]
The Environment Ministry co-ordinates adaptation to climate change, which has been planned for water resources by river basin, and for agriculture. Climate change was recently added to school education.[14] An emission trading system is part of a draft climate law, but the draft has been criticised for omitting coal phase out.[15]
Coal, cars and lorries vent more than a third of Turkey's six hundred million tonnes[17] of annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are mostly carbon dioxide and part of the cause of climate change in Turkey. The nation's coal-fired power stations emit the most carbon dioxide, and other significant sources are road vehicles running on petrol or diesel. After coal[18] and oil the third most polluting fuel is fossil gas; which is burnt in Turkey's gas-fired power stations, homes and workplaces. Much methane is belched by livestock; cows alone produce half of the greenhouse gas from agriculture in Turkey.
Economists say that major reasons for Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions are subsidies for coal-fired power stations,[19]: 18 and the lack of a price on carbon pollution.[20]: 1 The 2022 National Energy Plan forecast that 1.7 GW more local coal power would be connected to the grid by 2030.[21]: 15 Even without a carbon price renewable electricity in Turkey is cheaper than electricity generated by coal and gas,[22] so the Chamber of Engineers says that without subsidies coal-fired power stations would be gradually shutdown. The Right to Clean Air Platform argues that there should be a legal limit on fine airborne dust, much of which comes from car and lorry exhaust. Low-emission zones in cities would both reduce local air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions.
Turkey's share of current global greenhouse gas emissions is 1.3%.[23] Annual per person emissions since the late-2010s have varied around six and a half tonnes,[24] which is about the global average.[25] Although greenhouse gas totals are reported some details, such as the split between cars and lorries, are not published. Turkey has not yet sent a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.[26]
The government supports reforestation, electric vehicle manufacturing and low-carbon electricity generation; and is aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2053. But it has no plan for coal phase out, and its nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement on limiting climate change is not to reduce emissions but instead an increase of over 30% by 2030.[27] However emissions may have peaked in 2021.[28] Unless Turkey's climate and energy policies are changed the 2053 net zero target will be missed[29] and exporters of high carbon products, such as cement and electricity, will have to pay carbon tariffs.[30] In 2023 there was misinformation about a draft climate law which aims to keep the tariff money within the country by starting carbon emission trading.[31]There were two significant periods of climate change in the Bronze Age.[32] According to Boğaziçi University's Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, human-caused climate change in Turkey started in the 1970s.[33] CMIP 6 models it well.[34] One example of climate change's impact will be on the distribution of rainfall: the descending edge of the Hadley cell (an area of circulation near the equator) may move northwards towards Turkey, whose southern border is around 36 degrees north, and this may reduce rainfall in the south of the country.[35]
As of 2020[update], the hottest year on record was 2010, second hottest 2018 and third 2020.[39] Turkey is forecast to be more severely affected than many other countries,[40][41] but effects vary considerably across the regions of the country.[42]
Extreme rainfall has increased.[43] The weather is becoming more extreme,[7]and in 2021 there were extensive wildfires in the south and floods in the north. Wildfires in Turkey have increased[44] due to climate change,[45][46] and wind speed is predicted to increase throughout the Marmara region.[35] However, precipitation may increase in the north,[35] and more floods are predicted, due to rainfall replacing snow.[47] Seasonally, there may be more precipitation in the winter, but 50% less in spring and autumn.[39] Heatwaves[48] and droughts are increasing,[49][50] at least in some parts of the country.[51]
The Aegean rose by an estimated 4 mm a year in the early 21st century.[52] Over 200 thousand people live in areas at risk if sea level rises by 1 meter.[53] Tectonic uplift has decreased sea level rise between Samsun and Alanya, whereas several large river deltas have subsided.[54] Istanbul is at risk from sea level rise;[55] for example, Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding.[47]
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Climate change has reduced rainfall in some regions and has made it less regular, which has put stress on hydroelectric power plants.[58] Between 1979 and 2019 annual precipitation fluctuated from over 60 cm to under 45 cm,[58] and average annual temperatures varied by 4 degrees.[58]
Turkey is already a water stressed country, because the amount of water per person is only about 1,500 m³ a year: and due to population increase and climate change it is highly likely the country will suffer water scarcity (less than 1,000 m³) by the 2070s.[35] Little change is forecast for water resources in the northern river basins, but a substantial reduction is forecast for the southern river basins.[35] Konya in central Turkey is also vulnerable.[59] Charging for water used by agriculture has been suggested.[60]: 64–66
Producing beef in Turkey needs almost half as much again water as the global average,[61]: 109 but although climate change is causing droughts in Turkey,[62][51] the production of newborn calves is subsidized.[63]
In coastal areas, highly affected land types are permanent wetlands, croplands and grassland.[58] Climate models predict that extreme weather events will increase in the Mediterranean.[41]: 151 Glaciers in Turkey are retreating:[64] the largest remaining are the glaciers on Mount Ararat and these are forecast to be gone by 2065,[65] as they are melting much faster than mountain glaciers in many other parts of the world.[57] Because the climate in the south is forecast to become hotter and drier it may be very difficult to keep the current southern forests in Turkey.[35] In 2020 there were more forest fires than normal. Soil erosion is forecast to increase.[66] The rise in sea surface temperature is one of the causes of marine mucilage in the Sea of Marmara,[67] and is expected to further change marine life in Turkish waters.[68] The sea surface temperature of the Black Sea has increased by 2 degrees,[69] and there are concerns of bears not hibernating.[70]
Floods in 2020 caused billions of lira (hundreds of millions of dollars) in damages.[71] Environment Minister Murat Kurum estimated in 2021 that losses due to disasters caused by climate change would amount to billions of lira (hundreds of millions of dollars).[72] Loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person by 2100 is forecast in a 2019 study to be less than 1% if the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere is kept to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6.[73] The World Bank has estimated the cost and benefits of stopping net carbon emissions, but has suggested government do far more detailed planning.[74] For companies which responded to the Carbon Disclosure Project in 2022 the main climate change risk to their businesses is carbon pricing, such as the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.[75]: 10
Unless global emissions are greatly reduced agriculture in Turkey, such as wheat,[77][78] is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s, especially in areas with rain fed agriculture.[79] Arid and semi-arid areas are at risk of desertification.[80] Water is lost through evaporation due to "old-fashioned" irrigation techniques used by the Southeastern Anatolia Project, increasing the risk of severe water shortage.[81]
Damage to agriculture[82] is predicted to greatly increase,[79] for example due to "false spring" germination or blossoming followed by a cold snap.[39] The increase in early blooming, which is happening due to climate change, can be a problem for crops such as fruit trees.[83] Vineyards in Thrace are being affected.[84] A significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare.[85] More agritech co-operation with the EU and UAE has been suggested.[86]
Reduced precipitation[87] and hydroelectricity in Turkey is forecast,[88] and Turkish dams in the Tigris and Euphrates river basins are reducing cross-border flow and exacerbating drought due to climate change in Iraq.[89] To conserve hydropower, solar power is being added next to the hydropower.[90]
Warming seas and invasive marine species, such as from the Red Sea, have received little media coverage. Fishing in the Black Sea is sensitive to the impacts of climate change,[92] and according to the Turkish Marine Research Foundation all Turkish seas will be affected.[93][94] Lake Van is shrinking due to climate change.[95]
Tourism in Turkey may become too hot in the summer for some people, for example Antalya could become too hot for some visitors during some school holidays.[96] Development of ski resorts in the Central Taurus and eastern Black Sea region mountains may not be possible.[97]
Climate change may impact health in Turkey, for example due to increased heatwaves,[98][99] especially elderly and chronically ill people and children.[100] Wildfires in Turkey were the worst in the history of the republic in 2021 and killed several people and injured hundreds. Droughts risk mosquito borne diseases.[101] 1,350 people died because of floods between 1970 and 2014 in Turkey and about 2 million people were affected by those floods.[41]
There are over 3 million refugees of the Syrian Civil War in Turkey.[102] But although severe droughts in Syria, such as those in 2007–2008 in the northeast, are made more likely by climate change in the Middle East,[103] according to academics it is very unlikely that this was a cause of the Syrian civil war.[104] According to the United Nations Development Programme, decreasing rainfall is exacerbating the wide social and regional disparities within Turkey, and the gap between south-eastern provinces and the rest of the country is widening.[105]
Environmentalists say that new highways and building concrete are hindering absorption of floodwater by the land.[106] Because of the increase in temperature, existing buildings will need more energy for cooling.[107]
Turkey's GHG emissions are not in line with the Paris Agreement objective to limit temperature rise to well below 2 °C. According to Climate Action Tracker, if all government targets were like Turkey's, global warming would exceed 4 °C by the end of the 21st century.[108]
A long-term climate change mitigation strategy is lacking as of 2023.[109]: 116 The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says a faster decarbonisation is needed, and emissions per person per year would need to be cut by more than half to about 2–2.5 t CO2e by 2030.[110]: XXV The government intended to complete its review of long-term (2030 to 2050) policy,[111]: 42 [a] and publish a new National Climate Change Action Plan with sector specific targets and monitoring mechanisms by 2023,[114] but it did not.[115] Turkey argues that as a developing country it should be exempt from net emission reduction targets, but other countries do not agree.[114]: 59
Unless Turkey's energy policy is changed, European Union (EU) emissions per person are forecast to fall below Turkey's during the 2020s.[110]: 22 Since the EU is Turkey's main trading partner, a comparison with targets in the European Green Deal is important to help Turkish businesses avoid future EU carbon tariffs on exports such as steel[116] and cement.[117] Public and private sector working groups discussed the European Green Deal,[118] and the Trade Ministry published an action plan in response to its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.[119]A national strategy and action plan for adaptation to climate change was published in 2012,[120] but as of 2023 Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC.[121] The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is researching the effects of climate change and developing an adaptation strategy.[122] An adaptation report was written in 2021.[123]
The Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change coordinates activities to combat climate change in Turkey.[120] Agriculture Minister Bekir Pakdemirli said in 2023 that irrigation was being modernized and less thirsty crops were being changed to for agriculture in Turkey.[124]
The Twelfth Development Plan (2024–2028) mentions climate change.[125]: 217–220 Xeriscaping of green spaces in cities has been suggested,[126] and Istanbul has a climate change action plan.[127] A 2023 study suggested that local climate change plans should be better integrated with local spatial plans.[128] As of 2024[update] a climate change law has not been passed, although a draft was published in 2020.[129]
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Muslim environmentalists and academics quote the Quran in support of their environmentalism.[130] In Istanbul in 2015, Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change.[131][132]
In 2020 first lady Emine Erdoğan said that “Every wrong step we take can be a disaster for future generations”.[133] In 2019 some Turkish schoolchildren joined the School Strike for Climate,[134] and Turkey's branch of Extinction Rebellion demonstrated for Turkey to ratify the Paris Agreement.[135]
Environmental activist Greta Thunberg and 15 other children filed a petition in 2019 protesting lack of action on the climate crisis by Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, and Turkey[136][137] saying that, amongst other dangers, more deadly heat waves would affect them and other children in future.[138]: 29 The petition challenged the five countries under the Convention on the Rights of the Child:[139] "Comparable emissions to Turkey's rate of emissions would lead to more than 4°C of warming."[138]: 66 If the petition is successful, the countries will be asked to respond; however, any suggestions are not legally binding.[140][141] In 2020, Turkey and 32 other countries were sued at the European Court of Human Rights by a group of Portuguese children.[142]
Article 56 of the constitution says that, "Everyone has the right to live in a healthy and balanced environment. It is the duty of the State and citizens to improve the natural environment, to protect the environmental health and to prevent environmental pollution." Turkey has ratified the Paris Agreement and says that its greenhouse gas emissions will be net zero by 2053, but the government has no plan to phase out coal.[143] As of 2024 two cases have been rejected and one has been partly successful.[144]
In 2020 and 2021 sixteen non government organizations filed lawsuits requesting the president shutdown 37 large coal-fired power stations and over 600 mines.[145][146] In addition to climate change arguments the plaintiffs alleged that cancer cases are increased and the COVID-19 pandemic was worsened by their air pollution.[147] The case was rejected by the 11th administrative court of Ankara for various reasons.[148]
In 2023 young climate activists opened a case alleging that the nationally determined contribution (NDC) was inadequate.[149][150] The three youth climate activists filed a lawsuit against President Erdoğan and the Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change because Turkey’s Nationally Determined Contribution is not to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. They alleged that there is no effective climate action plan for energy. They alleged that these violate their human rights stated in the constitution, such as the environmental clause in the constitution.[151] The Council of State rejected the case on the grounds that it was an ‘annulment of an administrative action’ case but the NDC is not an administrative action.[144]
In 2022 and 2023 cases were brought about Lake Marmara drying up.[152][153] In 2024 a court decided to pause the process of reclassifying the land as not wetland, on the grounds that it could be rewetted: Doğa are calling for the court to annul the reclassification.[154]
In the 1990s independent Açık Radyo (Open Radio) broadcast some of the first media coverage of climate change, and its founder Ömer Madra (in Turkish) emphasises "The three Y's in the fight on climate change: Yerel (local) Yatay (horizontal) and Yavaş (slow, no resort to violence)."[155] The station continues,[156] and İklim Haber (Climate News) also covers climate change issues in Turkish and English.[157] The climate impact of coal power is rarely discussed,[156] and nearly all Turkish media owners have financial interests in fossil fuels.[158]: 17, 20 The media covers climate change only during extreme weather events, with insufficient expert opinions or civil-society perspectives.[159]: 28 Some think tanks, such as Ember, are respected by both industry and environmentalists.[156] Ufuk Alparslan, Ember’s regional lead, says that readers are enthused by solar power increasing energy independence and reducing import costs, but are not much interested in the climate benefits.[156] The arts are raising awareness of climate change (although some are sponsored by companies whose environmental policies have been criticised[156]),[160] and education is supported by the EU.[161][162] Protests against opencast coal mining, such as at Akbelen Forest, have been covered by small media outlets such as Yeşil Gazete and Kaldıraç Magazine.[156]
Individual action on climate change is not properly understood (in a survey of primary school teachers many erroneously prioritised using less cosmetics) and neither are government choices on climate change mitigation (in the same survey only a minority correctly prioritised curbing fossil fuel use).[163] Future warming of seawater by Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is wrongly thought by some to be relevant to climate change,[42] and few know that geothermal power in Turkey might emit considerable CO2.[164]
İklim Haber (Climate News) and KONDA Research and Consultancy found in 2018 that over three-quarters of public opinion on climate change thinks that extreme weather has increased.[165] According to the latest report written in Turkish and prepared by another collaboration of İklim Haber and Konda Research in 2020, 51.5% of the public opinion believe that the climate crisis is a bigger threat than the coronavirus crisis.[166] Also, 71.4% of the public opinion acknowledge that current climate crisis is a result of human activities.[166] Some construction companies have been accused of greenwashing, advertising their buildings as environmentally friendly without obtaining any green building certificates.[167]
In a 2019 E3G poll of six Belt and Road Initiative countries (including Turkey), solar was the most popular energy source and coal the least popular.[168] Twenty-four Turkish cities committed to the Paris Agreement targets that year,[169] and the United Nations Development Programme partnered with the Turkish Basketball Federation in 2020 to raise public awareness of the fight against climate change.[170] A 2020 study found that the level of public support for a potential carbon tax does not depend on whether the proceeds are used for mitigation and adaptation.[171] In 2023 a draft law was proposed including public information and adding climate change to education in Turkey.[14]
According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, climate change is one of the world's biggest problems.[172] Turkey was the fifth-largest recipient of multilateral climate funds between 2013 and 2016, receiving $231 million through channels such as the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF).[173]
In 2021, Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement, with all parliamentary members voting to ratıfy.[174] Prior to this, it was one of the last few remaining countries, alongside neighboring country Iran, to not have ratified the agreement. It was the last of the G20 countries to ratify. Their reason for delay, according to the current presidency at the G20 summit in 2020, was the countries "negligible historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions (less than 1%)". Turkey is not party to the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (Espoo Convention).[175] In 2021 Turkey ratified the Kigali Amendment to reduce production and use of hydrofluorocarbons.[176] It has no carbon tax or emissions trading scheme, therefore carbon capture and storage is not used as it is not economically viable.[177] Armenia says that dam construction in Turkey has combined with climate change to reduce flow in the Araks River basin.[178]
Turkey sent over a thousand representatives to the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference and joined various initiatives, such as decarbonizing cement production. However it was criticised for not voting to phase-out fossil fuels, with Umit Şahin at Sabancı University Istanbul Policy Center saying that would be good for the economy as Turkey is a fossil fuel importer.[179]
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