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The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Tennessee voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former Republican President Donald J. Trump is running for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot.[5] Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
Tennessee like its neighboring twin sister state of Kentucky, is expected to vote for Trump by a wide margin in the upcoming election.[6]
The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 122,803 | 92.14% | 63 | 63 | |
Uncommitted | 10,475 | 7.86% | 0 | 0 | |
Total: | 133,278 | 100.00% | 63 | 7 | 70 |
The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 446,850 | 77.33% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
Nikki Haley | 112,958 | 19.55% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,947 | 1.38% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Uncommitted | 4,884 | 0.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,874 | 0.32% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,714 | 0.30% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 722 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 533 | 0.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
David Stuckenberg | 352 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 577,834 | 100.00% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[11] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[12] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[15] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[16] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[17] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
538[6] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[18] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
NBC News[19] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ActiVote[20] | July 26 – August 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Targoz Market Research[21][upper-alpha 1] | September 27 – October 8, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 54% | 35% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
971 (LV) | 56% | 35% | 5% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[22][upper-alpha 2] | April 13–21, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 59% | 35% | 6% |
Targoz Market Research[23][upper-alpha 1] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 60% | 31% | 9% |
974 (LV) | 55% | 31% | 14% | |||
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[24] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 216 (RV) | – | 58% | 34% | 8%[lower-alpha 2] |
201 (LV) | 59% | 34% | 7%[lower-alpha 2] | |||
Targoz Market Research[25][upper-alpha 1] | December 14–28, 2023 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 61% | 30% | 9% |
929 (LV) | 63% | 31% | 5% | |||
Siena College[26][upper-alpha 3] | November 5–10, 2023 | 805 (A) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 20% | 31% |
Targoz Market Research[27][upper-alpha 1] | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,075 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 59% | 29% | 12% |
835 (LV) | 61% | 30% | 9% | |||
Emerson College[28] | October 1–4, 2023 | 410 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 55% | 22% | 23% |
Targoz Market Research[29][upper-alpha 1] | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 32% | 17% |
1,046 (LV) | 54% | 34% | 11% | |||
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[30] | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 42% | 26% | 31% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Targoz Market Research[31][upper-alpha 1] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,152 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 55% | 28% | 7% | 10% |
962 (LV) | 58% | 28% | 5% | 9% | |||
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[32] | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 29% | 8% | 16%[lower-alpha 3] |
Targoz Market Research[23][upper-alpha 1] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 25% | 16% | 11% |
974 (LV) | 47% | 28% | 15% | 10% | |||
Targoz Market Research[25][upper-alpha 1] | December 14–28, 2023 | 1,187 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 23% | 17% | 12% |
929 (LV) | 51% | 25% | 16% | 8% | |||
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[33] | November 14 – December 2, 2023 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 17% |
Targoz Market Research[27][upper-alpha 1] | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,164 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 18% | 22% | 14% |
872 (LV) | 48% | 23% | 19% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Targoz Market Research[27][upper-alpha 1] | October 5–16, 2023 | 1,118 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 21% | 5% | 22% |
844 (LV) | 53% | 23% | 6% | 18% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[22][upper-alpha 2] | April 13–21, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[22][upper-alpha 2] | April 13–21, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 55% | 31% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Targoz Market Research[29][upper-alpha 1] | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,120 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 32% | 22% |
977 (LV) | 52% | 36% | 11% | |||
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[30] | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 33% | 24% | 40% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
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Republican | |||||
Democratic | |||||
Green | |||||
Socialism and Liberation | |||||
Socialist Workers |
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Independent |
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Independent |
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Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
Partisan clients
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