2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s – a trend primarily attributed to population growth – as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election by less than a 4% margin since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2010. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 (the only one of the last four presidential elections where the winner won over 50% of the state's vote) and has been narrowly won by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past two cycles.
It was the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Republican candidate Donald Trump.[2] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[3] Incumbent president Biden was initially poised to run for re-election, but withdrew on July 21 and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris. Throughout 2024, Trump won every poll in North Carolina against Biden, but his lead in the state has diminished since Harris was nominated to lead the Democratic ticket, with most polls within the margin of error in either direction.
Voters must now show a voter ID at the polls and provide a copy of their ID with their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots received after election day also will not be counted.[4] There will also be more partisan poll-watchers.[5] The laws are similar to others passed in Republican-controlled states which Democrats have criticized as voter suppression.[4][5] Common Cause North Carolina and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina have been educating voters on the new rules.[4]
On September 12, 2024, the Republican National Committee sued to block the use of digital IDs, popular with students at the University of North Carolina, as a form of voter ID.[6] The plaintiffs sought a temporary restraining order, and alleged that the digital IDs did not comply with the state's voter identification requirements and were susceptible to fraud.[6] On September 20, 2024, Wake County Superior Court Judge Keith Gregory rejected the request for a temporary restraining order, stating that the Republican National Committee had not "advanced any credible link between the State Board's approval of Mobile One Cards and a heightened risk of ineligible voters casting illegal votes."[6]
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was granted the status of presidential candidate in July 2024 for North Carolina after state authorities recognised the political party he founded, 'We the People', which allowed Kennedy to qualify using 13,757 signatures, instead of the 82,542 signatures required for a candidate with no party.[7][8] The North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that Kennedy was improperly using his party to avoid higher qualification requirements, but this lawsuit against Kennedy was unsuccessful.[8] On August 27, Kennedy asked state authorities to remove him as a presidential candidate in North Carolina; on August 28, the We the People party officially made the same request to state authorities; both requests were initially denied due to ballots already being printed and upcoming deadlines, with North Carolina law mandating that absentee ballots should be mailed by authorities from September 6.[9][10]
Kennedy responded by launching a lawsuit demanding to be removed as a presidential candidate in North Carolina, with Kennedy previously saying that "by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats", while Kennedy remained as a presidential candidate in non-battleground states and indicated that his lawsuit to become a presidential candidate in New York would continue.[8][10][11] While Wake County Superior Court ruled against Kennedy, he appealed and the North Carolina Court of Appeals ruled for Kennedy on September 6, ordering for authorities to reprint ballots without Kennedy as a candidate.[11] The North Carolina Supreme Court affirmed the Court of Appeals' decision on September 9, so authorities went to reprint the ballots, which delayed the mailing date from the originally stipulated September 6 date to become September 20 for military and overseas voters and September 24 for other voters.[12]
In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures.[13] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate,[14] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.[15]
The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges.[14][16] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.[14]
In addition to the candidates on the ballot, the "No Preference" option appeared on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.[17]
The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 609,680 | 87.27% | 113 | ||
| No Preference | 88,900 | 12.73% | |||
| Total: | 698,580 | 100.00% | 132 | 132 | |
The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 793,978 | 73.84% | 62 | 62 | |
| Nikki Haley | 250,838 | 23.33% | 12 | 12 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 14,740 | 1.37% | |||
| No Preference | 7,448 | 0.69% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 3,418 | 0.32% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 3,166 | 0.29% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 916 | 0.09% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 727 | 0.07% | |||
| Total: | 1,075,231 | 100.00% | 74 | 74 | |
The North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.[20]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| None of the Above | 2,058 | 40.5% |
| Chase Oliver | 676 | 13.3% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 357 | 7.0% |
| Joshua Smith | 354 | 7.0% |
| Michael Rectenwald | 195 | 3.8% |
| Charles Ballay | 183 | 3.6% |
| Lars Mapstead | 176 | 3.5% |
| Mike ter Maat | 137 | 2.7% |
| Other[lower-alpha 1] | 946 | 18.7% |
| Total: | 5,082 | 100.0% |
| Source:[21] | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[24] | Tossup | October 3, 2024 |
| CNN[25] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| The Economist[26] | Tossup | October 11, 2024 |
| 538[27] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
| CNalysis[28] | Tossup | September 15, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[29] | Tossup | August 29, 2024 |
| NBC News[30] | Tossup | October 6, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 4 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.0% | 4.4% | Trump +1.6% |
| RacetotheWH | through October 8, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.8% | 48.5% | 2.7% | Trump +0.4% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through October 9, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 48.9% | 48.2% | 2.9% | Trump +0.7% |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 9, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.9% | 3.4% | Trump +0.8% |
| 538 | through October 9, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.3% | 47.3% | 4.4% | Trump +1.1% |
| Average | 48.7% | 47.8% | 3.5% | Trump +0.9% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[31][upper-alpha 1] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[32] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] |
| 50%[lower-alpha 5] | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 4] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[33] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| ActiVote[34] | September 7 – October 6, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[35] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Quinnipiac University[36] | September 25–29, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Washington Post[37] | September 25–29, 2024 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] |
| 1,001 (LV) | 50% | 48% | 2%[lower-alpha 4] | |||
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[38][upper-alpha 2] | September 23–29, 2024 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| High Point University[39] | September 20–29, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 48% | 6%[lower-alpha 6] |
| 589 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 6] | ||
| Emerson College[40][upper-alpha 3] | September 27–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 48% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] |
| 50%[lower-alpha 5] | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 4] | ||||
| RMG Research[41][upper-alpha 4] | September 25–27, 2024 | 780 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | 5%[lower-alpha 7] |
| 51%[lower-alpha 5] | 47% | 2%[lower-alpha 8] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[42] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,173 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[43] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[44] | September 19–25, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| 828 (LV) | 48% | 50% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[45] | September 20−24, 2024 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 49% | 1% | ||
| Marist College[46] | September 19−24, 2024 | 1,507 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3%[lower-alpha 9] |
| 1,348 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 49% | 2%[lower-alpha 9] | ||
| The Bullfinch Group[47][upper-alpha 5] | September 20–23, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[48][upper-alpha 6] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5%[lower-alpha 10] |
| New York Times/Siena College[49] | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| 682 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| Meredith College[50] | September 18−20, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 11] |
| Victory Insights (R)[51] | September 16−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Emerson College[52] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] |
| 49%[lower-alpha 5] | 50% | 1%[lower-alpha 4] | ||||
| Morning Consult[53] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,314 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[54][upper-alpha 7] | September 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 12] |
| TIPP Insights[55][upper-alpha 8] | September 11–13, 2024 | 973 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Elon University[56] | September 4−13, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9%[lower-alpha 13] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[57] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 46% | 6%[lower-alpha 10] |
| Quantus Insights (R)[58][upper-alpha 9] | September 11–12, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 14] |
| 50% | 48% | 2%[lower-alpha 15] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[59] | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 50% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] |
| Morning Consult[53] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,369 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| SurveyUSA[60][upper-alpha 10] | September 4–7, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[61] | September 5–6, 2024 | 692 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 46% | 7%[lower-alpha 13] |
| 619 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 16] | |||
| Patriot Polling[62] | September 1–3, 2024 | 804 (RV) | – | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[63] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3%[lower-alpha 16] |
| ActiVote[64] | August 6–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Emerson College[65] | August 25–28, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| 50%[lower-alpha 5] | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 4] | ||||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[66][upper-alpha 11] | August 26–27, 2024 | 612 (LV) | – | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[67] | August 23–26, 2024 | 645 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 700 (RV) | 47% | 49% | 4% | |||
| Fox News[68] | August 23–26, 2024 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 12] |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| High Point University/SurveyUSA[69] | August 19–21, 2024 | 1,053 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| 941 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Spry Strategies (R)[70][upper-alpha 12] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
| Focaldata[71] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[72] | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| 655 (LV) | 47% | 49% | 4% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[73] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Navigator Research (D)[74] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[75] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[76] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Emerson College[78] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [lower-alpha 17] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 2, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.1% | 47.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | — | 3.3% | Trump +0.8% |
| 270toWin | October 1 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 46.6% | 47.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 4.1% | Trump +0.4% |
| Average | 46.9% | 47.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 3.4% | Trump +0.5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[79] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 753 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[36] | September 25–29, 2024 | 953 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2%[lower-alpha 18] |
| East Carolina University[80] | September 23–26, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[42] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,173 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 51% | 1% | 1% | 0% | – |
| CNN/SSRS[81] | September 20–25, 2024 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[43] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 1% | 2% | – | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[44] | September 19–25, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 828 (LV) | 47% | 49% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[45] | September 20−24, 2024 | 991 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[49] | September 17–21, 2024 | 682 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| 682 (LV) | 47% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 7% | |||
| Meredith College[82] | September 18–20, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 18] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[83] | September 16–19, 2024 | 868 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[54][upper-alpha 7] | September 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Cygnal (R)[84][upper-alpha 13] | September 15–16, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 6%[lower-alpha 18] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[85] | September 6–9, 2024 | 495 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University[59] | September 4–8, 2024 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 49% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4%[lower-alpha 4] |
| YouGov[86][upper-alpha 14] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 46% | 0% | 1% | – | 6%[lower-alpha 12] |
| East Carolina University[87] | August 26–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[88] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[67] | August 23–26, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 645 (LV) | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[68] | August 23–26, 2024 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 12] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal[33] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 45% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[38][upper-alpha 2] | September 23–29, 2024 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[70][upper-alpha 12] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 3% | – | 1% | – | 4% |
| Focaldata[71] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 47% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 702 (RV) | 44% | 47% | 6% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| 702 (A) | 43% | 47% | 7% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[89] | August 12–15, 2024 | 601 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 2% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[72] | August 9–14, 2024 | 655 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 655 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
| YouGov Blue (D)[90][upper-alpha 15] | August 5–9, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Navigator Research (D)[74] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[75] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[91][upper-alpha 13] | August 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 4% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[92] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 714 (LV) | – | 44% | 41% | 4% | – | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[76] | July 24–28, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 5% | – | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[93] | July 22–24, 2024 | 586 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[94][upper-alpha 16] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 44% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[58][upper-alpha 9] | September 11–12, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | 9%[lower-alpha 14] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[94][upper-alpha 16] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Emerson College[95][upper-alpha 17] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[96][upper-alpha 18] | July 1–8, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[97] | July 1–5, 2024 | 696 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[98] | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| East Carolina University[99] | May 31 – June 3, 2024 | 1,332 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[100][upper-alpha 8] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[101][upper-alpha 19] | May 26–27, 2024 | 1,053 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[102][upper-alpha 20] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Prime Group[103][upper-alpha 21] | May 9–16, 2024 | 472 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[104] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[105] | May 6–13, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| High Point University[106] | May 5–9, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Emerson College[107] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| 52%[lower-alpha 5] | 48% | – | ||||
| John Zogby Strategies[108][upper-alpha 22] | April 13–21, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[109] | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon[110] | April 9–13, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[111] | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| High Point University[112] | March 22–30, 2024 | 829(RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 42% | 14% |
| Wall Street Journal[113] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Marist College[114] | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[115] | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[116][upper-alpha 10] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Cygnal (R)[117][upper-alpha 23] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| Emerson College[78] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Fox News[119] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Meredith College[120] | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[121] | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[122] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[123] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% |
| Meredith College[124] | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 40% | 22%[lower-alpha 19] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[125] | October 5–10, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 43% | 38% | 20% |
| Change Research (D)[127][upper-alpha 20] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Prime Group[128][upper-alpha 21] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 54% | 46% | – |
| 45% | 37% | 18%[lower-alpha 20] | ||||
| Opinion Diagnostics[129] | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 40% | 18% |
| Cygnal (R)[130][upper-alpha 23] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Differentiators (R)[131][upper-alpha 24] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College[132] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[133][upper-alpha 20] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[134][upper-alpha 10] | September 28 – October 2, 2022 | 918 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Emerson College[135] | September 15–16, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| East Carolina University[136] | September 7–10, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[137] | August 4–6, 2022 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 39% | 17% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[138][upper-alpha 25] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| East Carolina University[139] | May 19–20, 2022 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 37% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[94][upper-alpha 16] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 42% | 2% | – | 2% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[140] | July 16–18, 2024 | 461 (LV) | – | 45% | 39% | 5% | – | 1% | 10%[lower-alpha 21] |
| Emerson College[95][upper-alpha 17] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7%[lower-alpha 21] |
| YouGov[141][upper-alpha 14] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 40% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[142] | July 8–10, 2024 | 420 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 4% | – | 1% | 9%[lower-alpha 22] |
| Echelon Insights[96][upper-alpha 18] | July 1–8, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 6%[lower-alpha 21] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[97] | July 1–5, 2024 | 696 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 9%[lower-alpha 21] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[143] | June 8–11, 2024 | 534 (LV) | – | 43% | 40% | 7% | – | 1% | 9%[lower-alpha 22] |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[100][upper-alpha 8] | May 29 – June 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 10% |
| Prime Group[103][upper-alpha 21] | May 9–16, 2024 | 472 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[104] | May 7–13, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[105] | May 6–13, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
| Emerson College[107] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Meeting Street Insights (R)[144][upper-alpha 26] | April 25–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 35% | 11% | – | 2% | 12%[lower-alpha 23] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[109] | April 8–15, 2024 | 703 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[111] | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Wall Street Journal[113] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 34% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[115] | March 8–12, 2024 | 699 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] | February 12–20, 2024 | 704 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 45% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College[78] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| East Carolina University[145] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 44% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Fox News[119] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[146] | January 16–21, 2024 | 706 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[147] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R)[98] | June 7–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 37% | 8% | 10% |
| Change Research (D)[102][upper-alpha 20] | May 13–18, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 38% | 11% | 10% |
| Cygnal (R)[148][upper-alpha 13] | May 4–5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 38% | 9% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[149] | May 2–4, 2024 | 700 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 7% | 12% |
| Meredith College[150] | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 39% | 9% | 11% |
| Cygnal (R)[151][upper-alpha 23] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | 7% | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[152] | March 14–17, 2024 | 642 (LV) | – | 43% | 39% | 8% | 10% |
| Marist College[114] | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 43% | 11% | – |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[153][upper-alpha 27] | January 30 – February 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 32% | 16% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[154] | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,220 (LV) | – | 37% | 33% | 11% | 19% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155] | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 44% | 35% | 8% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] | October 7–9, 2023 | 736 (LV) | – | 41% | 38% | 9% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[156] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 33% | 9% | 2% | 14% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[108][upper-alpha 22] | April 13–21, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[108][upper-alpha 22] | April 13–21, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Roy Cooper Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[94][upper-alpha 16] | July 17–20, 2024 | 573 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 2% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[78] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[119] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University[145] | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 32% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 16% |
| Fox News[119] | February 8–12, 2024 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 33% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155] | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 36% | 33% | 12% | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics[129] | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 40% | 13% |
| Cygnal (R)[130][upper-alpha 23] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Differentiators (R)[131][upper-alpha 24] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155] | November 27–29, 2023 | 620 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[130][upper-alpha 23] | March 26–27, 2023 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Roy Cooper vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||
| Republican | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Constitution | |||||
| Justice for All | |||||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
Partisan clients
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