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The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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A Mountain West state with a distinct libertarian streak, Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. Except in 2008, the wins were always in single digits for Democrats; Obama won by less than 7% in 2012 and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for reelection to a second term,[2] but withdrew from the election on July 21, 2024.[3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[5]
Despite Donald Trump—the Republican nominee—not carrying Nevada in either of his two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed Trump in a strong position to win the state against Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major polls on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, has polled somewhat better since becoming the Democratic nominee. The state is rated as a tossup by nearly all major news organizations.[6]
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on August 23, 2024, that he was suspending his campaign in swing states, including Nevada. [7]
By 2022, every voter now gets a mail-in ballot unless they opt-out and eligible voters are now automatically registered after common transactions at the DMV.[8]
The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 119,758 | 89.3% | 36 | 36 | |
None of These Candidates | 7,448 | 5.6% | |||
Marianne Williamson | 4,101 | 3.1% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 811 | 0.6% | |||
Jason Palmer | 530 | 0.4% | |||
Frankie Lozada | 315 | 0.2% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 264 | 0.2% | |||
John Haywood | 241 | 0.2% | |||
Stephen Lyons | 147 | 0.1% | |||
Superpayaseria Crystalroc | 133 | 0.1% | |||
Donald Picard | 124 | 0.1% | |||
Brent Foutz | 93 | 0.1% | |||
Stephen Alan Leon | 89 | 0.1% | |||
Mark R. Prascak | 33 | <0.1% | |||
Total: | 134,087 | 100% | 36 | 13 | 49 |
Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary were not included in determining delegate allocation.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
None of These Candidates[11] | 50,763 | 63.26% |
Nikki Haley | 24,583 | 30.63% |
Mike Pence (withdrawn) | 3,091 | 3.85% |
Tim Scott (withdrawn) | 1,081 | 1.35% |
John Anthony Castro | 270 | 0.34% |
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) | 200 | 0.25% |
Donald Kjornes | 166 | 0.21% |
Heath V. Fulkerson | 95 | 0.12% |
Total: | 80,249 | 100.00% |
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 59,982 | 99.11% | 25 | 1[lower-alpha 1] | 26 |
Ryan Binkley | 540 | 0.89% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 60,522 | 100.00% | 25 | 1 | 26 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[13] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Tossup | August 20, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Tossup | October 2, 2024 |
CNN[16] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
The Economist[17] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
538[18] | Tossup | September 19, 2024 |
CNalysis[19] | Tossup | August 27, 2024 |
Inside Elections[20] | Tossup | August 29, 2024 |
NBC News[21] | Tossup | October 6, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270ToWin | October 7 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.4% | 48.0% | 4.6% | Trump +0.6% |
RacetotheWH | through October 8, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 49.2% | 47.1% | 3.7% | Harris +2.1% |
The Hill/DDHQ | through October 9, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 48.0% | 47.9% | 4.1% | Harris +0.1% |
Silver Bulletin | through October 9, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 48.4% | 47.6% | 4.0% | Harris +0.8% |
538 | through October 9, 2024 | October 14, 2024 | 47.7% | 47.1% | 5.2% | Harris +0.5% |
Average | 48.1% | 47.5% | 4.4% | Harris +0.6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[22][upper-alpha 1] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
Emerson College[23] | October 5–8, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 4] |
49%[lower-alpha 5] | 48% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | ||||
Wall Street Journal[24] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
RMG Research[25][upper-alpha 2] | September 30 – October 3, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4%[lower-alpha 7] |
49%[lower-alpha 5] | 49% | 2%[lower-alpha 8] | ||||
OnMessage Inc. (R)[26][upper-alpha 3] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[27] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 9] |
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[28][upper-alpha 4] | September 23–29, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
TIPP Insights[29][upper-alpha 5] | September 23−25, 2024 | 1,044 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
736 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3% | |||
Quantus Insights (R)[30][upper-alpha 6] | September 23−25, 2024 | 628 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[lower-alpha 10] |
AtlasIntel[31] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[32] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | 5% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[33] | September 19–25, 2024 | 574 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
516 (LV) | 52% | 45% | 3% | |||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[34][upper-alpha 7] | September 19−22, 2024 | 738 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
Remington Research Group (R)[35][upper-alpha 8] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
The Tarrance Group (R)[36][upper-alpha 9] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 44% | 9%[lower-alpha 11] |
Emerson College[37] | September 15–18, 2024 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 12] |
49%[lower-alpha 5] | 49% | 2%[lower-alpha 12] | ||||
Morning Consult[38] | September 9−18, 2024 | 474 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
Noble Predictive Insights[39] | September 9−16, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 5% | ||
Trafalgar Group (R)[40] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 44% | 11%[lower-alpha 13] |
Morning Consult[38] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
Patriot Polling[41] | September 1–3, 2024 | 788 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
InsiderAdvantage (R)[42] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 5%[lower-alpha 14] |
Emerson College[43] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 48% | 3%[lower-alpha 15] |
49%[lower-alpha 5] | 49% | 1%[lower-alpha 16] | ||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[44] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
450 (RV) | 49% | 45% | 6% | |||
Fox News[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2%[lower-alpha 9] |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
Democratic National Convention | ||||||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][upper-alpha 10] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
Focaldata[47] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 46% | – |
New York Times/Siena College[48] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
677 (LV) | 47% | 48% | 5% | |||
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[49] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[50][upper-alpha 11] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[51] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 7% |
Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[52] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[53] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Emerson College[54] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
New York Times/Siena College[55] | October 22–November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
611 (LV) | 42% | 50% | 8% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein[lower-alpha 17] Green |
Cornel West[lower-alpha 18] Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [lower-alpha 19] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race to the WH | through October 2, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 48.6% | 47.2% | — | — | 1.4% | 2.8% | Harris +1.3% |
270toWin | September 28 – October 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.2% | 47.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | Tie |
Average | 47.9% | 47.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | Harris +0.7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West[lower-alpha 20] Independent |
Jill Stein[lower-alpha 21] Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[56] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 514 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
TIPP Insights[29][upper-alpha 5] | September 23−25, 2024 | 1,044 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 43% | 1% | 0% | − | 9% |
736 (LV) | 50% | 49% | 0% | 0% | − | 1% | |||
AtlasIntel[31] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% | – | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[33] | September 19–25, 2024 | 574 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 3% | 4% | 3% |
516 (LV) | 50% | 44% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% | |||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[57] | September 16–19, 2024 | 652 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 9% |
Noble Predictive Insights[39] | September 9−16, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 0% | 1% | 10%[lower-alpha 22] |
692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5%[lower-alpha 23] | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[58] | September 6–9, 2024 | 698 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
YouGov[59][upper-alpha 12] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 46% | 0% | 1% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 9] |
CNN/SSRS[60] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[61] | August 25–28, 2024 | 490 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[44] | August 23–26, 2024 | 416 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 2% | 3% | 1% |
450 (RV) | 48% | 45% | – | 2% | 4% | 1% | |||
Fox News[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 9] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wall Street Journal[24] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 8% |
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[28][upper-alpha 4] | September 23–29, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][upper-alpha 10] | August 13–18, 2024 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
Focaldata[47] | August 6–16, 2024 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 42% | 7% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% |
678 (RV) | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
678 (A) | 49% | 39% | 9% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[62] | August 12–15, 2024 | 536 (LV) | – | 42% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
New York Times/Siena College[48] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
677 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[49] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 42% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[63] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 470 (LV) | – | 40% | 40% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[51] | July 24–28, 2024 | 454 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 43% | 7% | – | 1% | 3% | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[64] | July 22–24, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 43% | 45% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Strategies 360[65] | August 7–14, 2024 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 48% | 42% | 5% | 5% |
Trafalgar Group (R)[66] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 3% | 4%[lower-alpha 24] |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
InsiderAdvantage (R)[52] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
Emerson College[67][upper-alpha 13] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[68][upper-alpha 14] | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
Echelon Insights[69][upper-alpha 15] | July 1–8, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 41% | 50% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[70] | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Emerson College[71][upper-alpha 13] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Remington Research Group (R)[72] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
National Public Affairs[73] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 49% | 12%[lower-alpha 25] |
Emerson College[74] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
50%[lower-alpha 5] | 50% | – | ||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[75][upper-alpha 16] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
Fox News[76] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
The Tyson Group[77][upper-alpha 17] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[78] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
494 (LV) | 43% | 51% | 6% | |||
Prime Group[79][upper-alpha 18] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[53] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[80] | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
New York Times/Siena College[81] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 50% | 12% |
614 (LV) | 38% | 51% | 11% | |||
Emerson College[82] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
49%[lower-alpha 5] | 51% | – | ||||
John Zogby Strategies[83][upper-alpha 19] | April 13–21, 2024 | 517 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | 6% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
Wall Street Journal[85] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
Echelon Insights[86][upper-alpha 20] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
Emerson College[87] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
49%[lower-alpha 5] | 51% | – | ||||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[88] | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Noble Predictive Insights[89] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Emerson College[54] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Focaldata[91] | January 17–23, 2024 | 704 (A) | – | 40% | 43% | 17%[lower-alpha 26] |
– (LV) | 42% | 44% | 14%[lower-alpha 27] | |||
– (LV) | 49%[lower-alpha 5] | 51% | – | |||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[92] | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
Emerson College[93] | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[94] | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 44% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[95] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[96] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Emerson College[97] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
New York Times/Siena College[55] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
611 (LV) | 41% | 52% | 7% | |||
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[98] | October 5–10, 2023 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
CNN[99] | September 29 – October 3, 2023 | 1,251 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Vote TXT[100] | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 41% | 48% | 11% |
Prime Group[101][upper-alpha 18] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
39% | 39% | 22%[lower-alpha 28] | ||||
Noble Predictive Insights[102] | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[103] | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights[104] | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[105][upper-alpha 10] | November 8–9, 2022 | 679 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research[106][upper-alpha 21] | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[107][upper-alpha 22] | October 13–17, 2022 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 49% | 14% |
Emerson College[108] | September 8–10, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Emerson College[109] | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Blueprint Polling (D)[110] | March 21–24, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[111] | July 16–18, 2024 | 412 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | – | 1% | 7%[lower-alpha 25] |
Emerson College[67][upper-alpha 13] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8%[lower-alpha 29] |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[68][upper-alpha 14] | July 5–12, 2024 | 761 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 47% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
YouGov[112][upper-alpha 12] | July 4–12, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
Echelon Insights[69][upper-alpha 15] | July 1–8, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 35% | 45% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7%[lower-alpha 29] |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[70] | July 1–5, 2024 | 452 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 8%[lower-alpha 29] |
National Public Affairs[73] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
Emerson College[74] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
Fox News[76] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,069 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
The Tyson Group[77][upper-alpha 23] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Prime Group[79][upper-alpha 18] | May 9–16, 2024 | 468 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 10% | 3% | 0% | – |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[53] | May 7–13, 2024 | 459 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[80] | May 6–13, 2024 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 7% |
New York Times/Siena College[81] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 27% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 2% | 18%[lower-alpha 30] |
614 (LV) | 30% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 14%[lower-alpha 30] | |||
Emerson College[82] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] | April 8–15, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 34% | 48% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
Wall Street Journal[85] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 11%[lower-alpha 30] |
Emerson College[87] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[88] | March 8–15, 2024 | 447 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 36% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
Noble Predictive Insights[89] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 33% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 10% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | February 12–20, 2024 | 445 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
Emerson College[54] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 14% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[92] | January 16–21, 2024 | 457 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 31% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
Emerson College[93] | January 5–8, 2024 | 1,294 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[113] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 451 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 37% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P2 Insights[114][upper-alpha 24] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 37% | 40% | 8% | 15% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[75][upper-alpha 16] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 44% | 10% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[78] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 9% | 7% |
494 (LV) | 40% | 46% | 8% | 6% | |||
Iron Light Intelligence[115][upper-alpha 25] | May 17–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 37% | 15% | 14% |
P2 Insights[116][upper-alpha 24] | May 13−21, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 9% | 10% |
New York Times/Siena College[117] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% |
611 (LV) | 34% | 40% | 19% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 437 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 35% | 39% | 11% | 1% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[83][upper-alpha 19] | April 13–21, 2024 | 517 (LV) | – | 39% | 51% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[83][upper-alpha 19] | April 13–21, 2024 | 517 (LV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College[119] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 44% | 18% |
611 (LV) | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College[119] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 611 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
611 (LV) | 41% | 45% | 14% | |||
Vote TXT[100] | May 15–19, 2023 | 412 (RV) | – | 36% | 46% | 17% |
Noble Predictive Insights[102] | April 18–26, 2023 | 613 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[103] | April 17–20, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 44% | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights[104] | January 30 – February 6, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
Emerson College[109] | July 7–10, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.1% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Susquehanna Polling & Research[106][upper-alpha 21] | October 24–27, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[54] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 49% | 19% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | |||||
Republican | |||||
Libertarian | |||||
Independent American |
|
||||
None of These Candidates | |||||
Total votes |
Partisan clients
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