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The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes.
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A sparsely populated Great Plains state, Nebraska has voted Republican in nearly every presidential election since its statehood, making exceptions only for favorite son William Jennings Bryan; Woodrow Wilson; Franklin D. Roosevelt in his first two terms; and landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson. Democratic presidential candidates have not been able to come within single digits of carrying the state since Johnson carried the state in his 1964 landslide, and the only Democrat to win more than 40% of the statewide vote since then was Barack Obama, who garnered 41.60% in 2008.
Nebraska is one of two states — the other being Maine — that allocates their electoral votes separately by congressional district in addition to two electoral votes going to the statewide winner. The 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, and in recent years has leaned Democatic. Obama narrowly won the district in 2008, marking the first time in 44 years that a Democrat won any of the state's electoral votes. In 2020, the district flipped back to the Democratic column, backing Joe Biden by 5.9%, despite the state at-large voting Republican by a landslide margin.
In 2024, Trump improved his margin statewide, but lost the 2nd district again,[1] as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by five percentage points.[2][3] This marked the first time that a Democrat had carried the district in consecutive elections since Nebraska started using the congressional district method in 1992, and by extension, the first time since 1936 that Democrats won electoral votes from the state in consecutive elections. Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in Nebraska.[4]
This was the first presidential election since 2012 when Nebraska's 2nd congressional district failed to back the winner of the Electoral College, the first time that a Republican candidate won the presidency without carrying the district, and the first time since 1908 that a Republican won the presidency without sweeping all of the state's electoral votes. It is also the lone electoral vote that Trump won in 2016, but failed to win in 2024.[5]
In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. A second attempt failed in September. The change to winner-take-all had been supported by Trump, Governor Jim Pillen, 2nd district congressman Don Bacon,[6] and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk.[7][8][9]
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Democratic primary
The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 84,677 | 90.2% | 28 | 28 | |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 9,199 | 9.8% | 1 | ||
| Total: | 93,876 | 100.0% | 29 | 5 | 34 |
Republican primary
The Nebraska Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 167,968 | 79.3% | 36 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 38,246 | 18.1% | |||
| Perry Johnson (withdrawn) | 3,902 | 1.8% | |||
| Write-in votes[12] | 1,671 | 0.8% | |||
| Total: | 211,787 | 100.0% | 36 | 36 | |
Libertarian primary
Oliver
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- >90%
Ballay
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 60–70%
- >90%
Hornberger
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Mapstead
- 30–40%
- 50–60%
- >90%
Rectenwald
- 40–50%
Tie
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
No Votes
The Nebraska Libertarian primary was held on May 14, 2024. Six candidates were on the ballot.[13]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Oliver | 309 | 27.6% |
| Charles Ballay | 237 | 21.2% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 204 | 18.2% |
| Lars Mapstead | 180 | 16.1% |
| Michael Rectenwald | 120 | 10.7% |
| Mike ter Maat | 69 | 6.2% |
| Total: | 1,119 | 100.0% |
| Source:[14] | ||
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Candidates
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Nebraska:[15]
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Cornel West, Independent
In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. successfully made it on the ballot, but took his name off of it when he withdrew.
Proposal to change to winner-take-all
In April 2024, there was a failed push from some Republicans to replace the split Electoral College voting with a winner-takes-all system. The change was prompted by a possible scenario where if Joe Biden carried the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but no other swing states, the second district could give Biden the decisive 270th electoral vote.[16] While Republicans control the state legislature, the attempt failed due to internal opposition. Only eight legislators voted to advance the proposal when it was brought forward at the end of the legislative session. Republican Senator Mike McDonnell, who had given the caucus a filibuster-proof majority when he switched his affiliation from Democratic, stated, "I am not voting for cloture on winner-take-all, and I am not supporting winner-take-all."[17]
Governor Jim Pillen said he would call a special session to adopt a winner-take-all system if it were to get the necessary support for passage. As bills in Nebraska normally take effect three months after being signed, it would need to be passed with an emergency clause and the support of two-thirds of 49 senators – meaning all 33 Republicans – in order to be effective for the election. Maureen Terry, a Democratic leader in Maine, responded to the efforts by signaling that if they were successful, the Maine legislature would also adopt a winner-take-all system to negate any benefit given to Republicans.[18]
After Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, a second push to change to a winner-take-all system began in September after Republican nominee Donald Trump and several of his allies spoke to Republican legislators and Pillen about instituting the change. Pillen stated he would call a special session for the change if supporters could give him commitments from the 33 legislators needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster; at the time, three of the 33 Republicans in the legislature, including McDonnell, who was expected to be the last holdout, had not committed to supporting the change.[19][20] Due to restrictions in Maine law, Maine would not have been able to counter such a change in time for the November election, meaning the change would almost certainly have secured an extra Republican electoral vote.[21] McDonnell stated on September 23 that he would not vote to change the system before the election, preferring that the issue be decided by the state's voters.[22] The following day, Pillen stated he would not call a special session.[23]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (3rd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[24] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | November 1, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Likely R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[26] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[27] | Solid R | Solid D | Solid R | Solid R | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[28] | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | Solid R | October 1, 2024 |
| The Economist[29] | Safe R | Likely D | Solid R | Safe R | October 3, 2024 |
| 538[30] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | September 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Solid R | Lean D | Solid R | Solid R | August 29, 2024 |
| NBC News[32] | Safe R | Lean D | Safe R | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[33] | Safe R | Tossup | Safe R | Safe R | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[34] | Solid R | Likely D | Solid R | Solid R | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
Statewide
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[35][A] | October 30–31, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 39% | 4% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[36][B] | October 25–28, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 56% | 39% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[37] | October 23−26, 2024 | 1,194 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
| 1,194 (LV) | 55% | 40% | 5% | |||
| Change Research (D)[38][A] | October 18–21, 2024 | 815 (LV) | – | 55% | 41% | 4% |
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[39][B] | October 5–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[40][A] | October 3–8, 2024 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| Impact Research (D)[41][A] | October 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[42][C] | September 27 – October 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 42% | 5% |
| 48% | 38% | 14%[b] | ||||
| SurveyUSA[43][A] | September 20–23, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 40% | 5%[c] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[44][D] | August 26–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[45][E] | August 23–27, 2024 | 1,293 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 37% | 9%[d] |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[46] | October 21–28, 2024 | 1,206 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4%[e] |
| New York Times/Siena College[37] | October 23−26, 2024 | 1,194 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| 1,194 (LV) | 53% | 39% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[47][B] | July 8–11, 2024 | 698 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 33% | 15%[f] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[48][A] | April 24–25, 2024 | 737 (V) | ± 3.6% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| John Zogby Strategies[49][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Change Research (D)[50][G] | November 13–16, 2023 | 1,048 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
| Emerson College[51] | October 1–4, 2023 | 423 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 31% | 23% |
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[49][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[49][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 307 (LV) | – | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Nebraska's 1st congressional district
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[46] | October 21–28, 2024 | 408 (LV) | – | 51% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3%[e] |
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[37] | October 23−26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 54% | 42% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[52] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| 680 (LV) | 52% | 43% | 5% | |||
| SurveyUSA[45][E] | August 23–27, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 42% | 11%[g] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[46] | October 21–28, 2024 | 393 (LV) | – | 52% | 44% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College[37] | October 23−26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 53% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[52] | September 24–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| 680 (LV) | 51% | 42% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% | |||
| CNN/SSRS[53] | September 20–25, 2024 | 794 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[54][H] | August 14–17, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[55][I] | August 10–17, 2024 | 437 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[48][A] | April 24–25, 2024 | – | – | 34% | 37% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Nebraska's 3rd congressional district
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs.Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist/YouGov[46] | October 21–28, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 70% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 564,816 | 59.32% | +1.10% | ||
| Democratic | 369,995 | 38.86% | −0.31% | ||
| Libertarian | 6,399 | 0.67% | −1.45% | ||
| Legal Marijuana Now | 3,062 | 0.32% | N/A | ||
| Green | 2,887 | 0.30% | N/A | ||
| Write-in | 5,023 | 0.53% | +0.04% | ||
| Total votes | 952,182 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By congressional district
Trump won two of Nebraska's three congressional districts, while Harris won the second, which elected a Republican.[1]
| District | Trump | Harris | Other | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| 1st | 177,666 | 55.49% | 136,153 | 42.52% | 6,375 | 1.99% | Mike Flood |
| 2nd | 148,905 | 46.73% | 163,541 | 51.32% | 6,200 | 1.95% | Don Bacon |
| 3rd | 238,245 | 76.03% | 70,301 | 22.44% | 4,796 | 1.53% | Adrian Smith |
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- Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by the campaign of Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Nebraska's Class 1 Senate seat
- Poll sponsored by the campaign of U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Trump
- Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Nebraska Examiner
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