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The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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A sparsely populated Mountain West state, though somewhat less conservative than its neighboring Great Plains and Mountain states, Montana hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton did so in 1992. The state has not been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. It has been carried by Republicans by double digits since 2012. Donald Trump won Montana by 20.4% and 16.4% in 2016 and 2020 respectively. Considered a strongly red state, Montana is favored to be carried safely by Trump in 2024. However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana has received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy, which is seen as very competitive and likely to decide control of the Senate.
The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 94,587 | 91.1% | 20 | 20 | |
No preference | 9,285 | 8.9% | |||
Total: | 103,872 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |
The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 165,678 | 90.9% | |||
No Preference | 16,570 | 9.1% | |||
Total: | 182,248 | 100.00% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
No Preference | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
Total: | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
Source:[4] |
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:[5]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[7] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Safe R | May 30, 2023 |
CNalysis[10] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[12] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
538[13] | Solid R | September 23, 2024 |
RCP[14] | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
NBC News[15] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College[16] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 4% |
656 (LV) | 57% | 40% | 3% | |||
RMG Research[17][upper-alpha 1] | September 12–19, 2024 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 59% | 38% | 3%[lower-alpha 2] |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[18][upper-alpha 2] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | 3% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
Rasmussen Reports (R)[19][upper-alpha 3] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 35% | 7% |
Democratic National Convention begins | ||||||
Emerson College[20] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | 3.0% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
58%[lower-alpha 3] | 43% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Times/Siena College[16] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 38% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
656 (LV) | 56% | 39% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% | |||
Remington Research Group (R)[21][upper-alpha 4] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 39% | – | 2% | – | 3% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R)[19][upper-alpha 3] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
American Pulse Research & Polling[22][upper-alpha 5] | August 10–12, 2024 | 538 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% |
Emerson College[20] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMG Research[23][upper-alpha 1] | August 6–14, 2024 | 540 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 57% | 39% | 2% | 2% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research Group (R)[24] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 570 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 36% | 8% |
Torchlight Strategies (R)[25][upper-alpha 6] | June 22–26, 2024 | 649 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | 14%[lower-alpha 4] |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[26][upper-alpha 7] | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[27][upper-alpha 8] | June 3–5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
John Zogby Strategies[28][upper-alpha 9] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 59% | 34% | 7% |
Emerson College[29][upper-alpha 10] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
SurveyUSA[30][upper-alpha 5] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
Emerson College[31] | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[32] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
J.L. Partners[33] | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
Echelon Insights[34] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[29][upper-alpha 10] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[32] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% |
49% | 28% | 4% | 19%[lower-alpha 5] |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[28][upper-alpha 9] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Zogby Strategies[28][upper-alpha 9] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 58% | 30% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J.L. Partners[33] | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
Echelon Insights[34] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | |||||
Democratic | |||||
Libertarian | |||||
Green | |||||
We the People |
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Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
Partisan clients
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