2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	74.18% (1.59 pp)
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 927,019 707,278 Percentage 55.73% 42.52%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90%+ Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

For most of the race Iowa was expected to be a safe red state in 2024.^[2] A poll performed by Selzer and Co. and published by The Des Moines Register on November 2 claimed Harris to be up by 3%, leading some to predict a far closer race than initially expected.^[3][4][5] Selzer retired from polling following the election, a decision she claimed she had made the year before.^[6][7]

Despite some polls predicting the state could be a very narrow win for Trump or even a flip for Harris, Donald Trump won the state in a landslide, winning the state by 13.2 percentage points, the widest margin for any candidate since 1972.^[8][9]

Background

An Upper Midwestern state previously considered a battleground and a bellwether state for decades, Iowa voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and is now considered a moderately red state at the federal and state levels. Republican Donald Trump won the state by a comfortable margin of 8.2% while losing nationally in 2020, despite polls indicating a close race. Biden became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Furthermore, during the 2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (Governor Kim Reynolds, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, and Secretary of State Paul Pate) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent Attorney General Tom Miller and 40-year incumbent Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (four-year incumbent Auditor Rob Sand) won by fewer than 3,000 votes, or 0.24%. Republicans also won all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats.^[10][11]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21.^[12][13] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.^[14]

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, announcing as much in April.^[15] He withdrew from the race on August 23, endorsing Donald Trump. ^[16]

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15. Voting on candidates was done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.^[17]

Iowa Democratic caucus, January 12 – March 5, 2024^[18]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	12,337	90.37%	40		40
Uncommitted	614	4.50%	0		0
Dean Phillips	394	2.89%	0		0
Marianne Williamson[a]	307	2.25%	0		0
Total:	13,652	100.00%	40	6	46

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the 2024 Republican primaries. Former president Donald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  Haley

•   30–40%

Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024^[19]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	56,243	51.00%	20	0	20
Ron DeSantis	23,491	21.30%	9	0	9
Nikki Haley	21,027	19.07%	8	0	8
Vivek Ramaswamy	8,430	7.64%	3	0	3
Ryan Binkley	768	0.70%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson	188	0.17%	0	0	0
Other	90	0.08%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	35	0.03%	0	0	0
Total:	110,272	100.00%	40	0	40

Libertarian caucuses

Main article: 2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.^[20] 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chase Oliver from Georgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote.^[21]

2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses^[22]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Chase Oliver	38	42.70
Michael Rectenwald	15	16.85
Mike ter Maat	12	13.48
Joshua Smith	12	13.48
Vivek Ramaswamy	4	4.49
Mario Perales	2	2.25
Robert Sansone	2	2.25
Jacob Hornberger	1	1.12
Lars Mapstead	1	1.12
Art Olivier	1	1.12
None of the above	1	1.12
Total	89	100.00

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[23]	Likely R	November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[24]	Tilt R	November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25]	Likely R	November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[26]	Likely R	November 3, 2024
CNalysis[27]	Tilt R	November 4, 2024
CNN[28]	Solid R	November 3, 2024
The Economist[29]	Safe R	November 3, 2024
538[30]	Likely R	November 3, 2024
NBC News[31]	Solid R	November 3, 2024
Split Ticket[32]	Lean R	November 2, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided [b]	Margin
270ToWin	October 2 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	45.3%	50.0%	4.7%	Trump +4.7%
Silver Bulletin	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	45.4%	49.8%	4.8%	Trump +4.4%
Average			45.4%	49.9%	4.7%	Trump +4.5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R)[33]	November 2–3, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	52%	46%	2%[d]
SoCal Strategies (R)[34][A]	November 2–3, 2024	501 (RV)	± 4.4%	50%	43%	7%
		435 (LV)		52%	44%	4%
Emerson College[35][B]	November 1–2, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	53%	43%	4%[e]
				54%[f]	45%	1%[e]
Cygnal (R)[36][C]	September 27–28, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	45%	4%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Selzer & Co.[37][D]	October 28–31, 2024	808 (LV)	± 3.4%	44%	47%	3%	0%	6%[g]
Selzer & Co.[38][D]	September 8–11, 2024	656 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%	43%	6%	1%	3%[e]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)[39][C]	July 8–9, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	39%	10%
John Zogby Strategies[40][E]	April 13–21, 2024	405 (LV)	–	47%	45%	8%
Selzer & Co.[41][D]	February 25–28, 2024	640 (LV)	± 3.9%	48%	33%	19%[h]
Cygnal (R)[42][C]	February 13–14, 2024	600 (LV)	± 3.9%	49%	40%	11%
John Zogby Strategies[43]	January 2–4, 2024	500 (LV)	–	51%	39%	10%
Emerson College[44]	December 15–17, 2023	1,094 (RV)	± 2.9%	48%	40%	12%
Emerson College[45]	October 1–4, 2023	464 (RV)	± 4.5%	44%	34%	22%
Cygnal (R)[46][C]	September 28–29, 2023	506 (LV)	± 4.3%	47%	38%	15%
Emerson College[47]	September 7–9, 2023	896 (RV)	± 3.2%	50%	39%	11%
HarrisX[48][F]	August 17–21, 2023	1,952 (LV)	–	47%	41%	12%
Big Data Poll (R)[49]	July 9–12, 2023	1,057 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	36%	22%
Emerson College[50]	May 19–22, 2023	1,064 (RV)	± 2.9%	49%	38%	13%
Cygnal (R)[51][C]	April 3–4, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	40%	14%
Emerson College[52]	October 2–4, 2022	959 (LV)	± 3.1%	47%	39%	14%
Cygnal (R)[53][C]	October 2–4, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	41%	8%
Cygnal (R)[54][C]	July 13–14, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	40%	9%
Cygnal (R)[55][C]	February 20–22, 2022	610 (LV)	± 3.9%	53%	38%	9%
Selzer & Co.[56][D]	November 7–10, 2021	658 (LV)	± 3.8%	51%	40%	9%
Cygnal (R)[57][C]	October 18–19, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	54%	41%	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Selzer & Co.[58][D]	June 9–14, 2024	632 (LV)	± 3.9%	50%	32%	9%	2%	7%[i]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College[47]	September 7–9, 2023	896 (RV)	± 3.2%	48%	35%	5%	12%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)[46][C]	September 28–29, 2023	506 (LV)	± 4.3%	48%	34%	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[40][E]	April 13–21, 2024	405 (LV)	–	39%	45%	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[40][E]	April 13–21, 2024	405 (LV)	–	50%	39%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Big Data Poll (R)[49]	July 9–12, 2023	1,057 (LV)	± 3.0%	38%	36%	26%
Emerson College[50]	May 19–22, 2023	1,064 (RV)	± 2.9%	45%	38%	17%
Cygnal (R)[51][C]	April 3–4, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	38%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)[46][C]	September 28–29, 2023	506 (LV)	± 4.3%	49%	33%	18%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Iowa^[59]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	927,019	55.73%	+2.64%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	707,278	42.52%	−2.37%
	We the People	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	13,122	0.79%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	7,218	0.43%	−0.73%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia	1,427	0.09%	N/A
	Independent	Shiva Ayyadurai Crystal Ellis	424	0.03%	N/A
	Socialist	Bill Stodden Stephanie Cholensky	361	0.02%	N/A
	Write-in		6,657	0.40%	+0.02%
Total votes			1,663,506	100.00%	N/A

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adair	2,916	71.47%	1,086	26.62%	78	1.91%	1,830	44.85%	4,080
Adams	1,517	71.05%	576	26.98%	42	1.97%	941	44.07%	2,135
Allamakee	4,857	66.37%	2,350	32.11%	111	1.52%	2,507	34.26%	7,318
Appanoose	4,704	72.55%	1,686	26.00%	94	1.45%	3,018	46.55%	6,484
Audubon	2,214	68.14%	970	29.86%	65	2.00%	1,244	38.28%	3,249
Benton	9,549	65.81%	4,739	32.66%	221	1.52%	4,810	33.15%	14,509
Black Hawk	30,572	48.60%	31,299	49.76%	1,035	1.65%	-727	-1.16%	62,906
Boone	9,199	59.72%	5,895	38.27%	309	2.01%	3,304	21.45%	15,403
Bremer	8,799	60.24%	5,571	38.14%	237	1.62%	3,228	22.10%	14,607
Buchanan	6,790	63.16%	3,766	35.03%	194	1.80%	3,024	28.13%	10,750
Buena Vista	4,962	65.84%	2,462	32.67%	113	1.50%	2,500	33.17%	7,537
Butler	5,784	71.89%	2,144	26.65%	118	1.47%	3,640	45.24%	8,046
Calhoun	3,708	72.75%	1,328	26.05%	61	1.20%	2,380	46.70%	5,097
Carroll	7,814	70.14%	3,153	28.30%	173	1.55%	4,661	41.84%	11,140
Cass	5,007	69.38%	2,077	28.78%	133	1.84%	2,930	40.60%	7,217
Cedar	6,390	60.03%	4,075	38.28%	179	1.68%	2,315	21.75%	10,644
Cerro Gordo	12,627	54.85%	9,955	43.25%	438	1.90%	2,672	11.60%	23,020
Cherokee	4,398	72.04%	1,611	26.39%	96	1.57%	2,787	45.65%	6,105
Chickasaw	4,234	67.86%	1,919	30.76%	86	1.38%	2,315	37.10%	6,239
Clarke	3,140	70.10%	1,265	28.24%	74	1.65%	1,875	41.86%	4,479
Clay	6,047	70.80%	2,367	27.71%	127	1.49%	3,680	43.09%	8,541
Clayton	6,255	66.54%	3,017	32.10%	128	1.36%	3,238	34.44%	9,400
Clinton	13,964	58.48%	9,472	39.67%	442	1.85%	4,492	18.81%	23,878
Crawford	4,651	71.06%	1,812	27.69%	82	1.25%	2,839	43.37%	6,545
Dallas	32,374	51.42%	29,402	46.70%	1,185	1.88%	2,972	4.72%	62,961
Davis	3,027	76.56%	878	22.21%	49	1.24%	2,149	54.35%	3,954
Decatur	2,711	72.51%	957	25.60%	71	1.90%	1,754	46.91%	3,739
Delaware	6,984	68.89%	2,978	29.37%	176	1.74%	4,006	39.52%	10,138
Des Moines	10,794	56.65%	7,935	41.64%	325	1.71%	2,859	15.01%	19,054
Dickinson	7,775	69.21%	3,297	29.35%	162	1.44%	4,478	39.86%	11,234
Dubuque	28,224	53.48%	23,705	44.92%	841	1.59%	4,519	8.56%	52,770
Emmet	3,422	71.32%	1,315	27.41%	61	1.27%	2,107	43.91%	4,798
Fayette	6,325	64.23%	3,334	33.85%	189	1.92%	2,991	30.38%	9,848
Floyd	4,744	62.01%	2,782	36.37%	124	1.62%	1,962	25.64%	7,650
Franklin	3,431	70.02%	1,393	28.43%	76	1.55%	2,038	41.59%	4,900
Fremont	2,711	71.44%	1,023	26.96%	61	1.61%	1,688	44.48%	3,795
Greene	3,211	65.79%	1,603	32.84%	67	1.37%	1,608	32.95%	4,881
Grundy	4,998	69.94%	2,019	28.25%	129	1.81%	2,979	41.69%	7,146
Guthrie	4,446	67.95%	1,974	30.17%	123	1.88%	2,472	37.78%	6,543
Hamilton	5,004	65.87%	2,482	32.67%	111	1.46%	2,522	33.20%	7,597
Hancock	4,336	73.01%	1,523	25.64%	80	1.35%	2,813	47.37%	5,939
Hardin	5,790	68.44%	2,553	30.18%	117	1.38%	3,237	38.26%	8,460
Harrison	5,566	69.93%	2,245	28.21%	148	1.86%	3,321	41.72%	7,959
Henry	6,439	67.07%	2,995	31.20%	166	1.73%	3,444	35.87%	9,600
Howard	3,157	65.09%	1,619	33.38%	74	1.53%	1,538	31.71%	4,850
Humboldt	3,770	74.17%	1,236	24.32%	77	1.51%	2,534	49.85%	5,083
Ida	2,771	75.81%	826	22.60%	58	1.59%	1,945	53.21%	3,655
Iowa	6,068	62.95%	3,400	35.27%	171	1.77%	2,668	27.68%	9,639
Jackson	7,074	65.49%	3,567	33.02%	160	1.48%	3,507	32.47%	10,801
Jasper	12,701	62.88%	7,141	35.35%	356	1.76%	5,560	27.53%	20,198
Jefferson	4,353	52.16%	3,788	45.39%	205	2.46%	565	6.77%	8,346
Johnson	26,087	30.11%	58,846	67.92%	1,711	1.97%	-32,759	-37.81%	86,644
Jones	6,820	62.11%	3,942	35.90%	218	1.99%	2,878	26.21%	10,980
Keokuk	3,869	75.13%	1,219	23.67%	62	1.20%	2,650	51.46%	5,150
Kossuth	5,983	71.25%	2,284	27.20%	130	1.55%	3,699	44.05%	8,397
Lee	10,152	62.67%	5,659	34.94%	387	2.39%	4,493	27.73%	16,198
Linn	54,237	44.11%	66,358	53.97%	2,364	1.92%	-12,121	-9.86%	122,959
Louisa	3,584	69.70%	1,480	28.78%	78	1.52%	2,104	40.92%	5,142
Lucas	3,400	73.18%	1,169	25.16%	77	1.66%	2,231	48.02%	4,646
Lyon	5,899	84.25%	1,023	14.61%	80	1.14%	4,876	69.64%	7,002
Madison	6,864	68.45%	3,008	30.00%	156	1.56%	3,856	38.45%	10,028
Mahaska	8,207	74.98%	2,577	23.54%	162	1.48%	5,630	51.44%	10,946
Marion	13,289	67.92%	5,928	30.30%	349	1.78%	7,361	37.62%	19,566
Marshall	9,815	56.83%	7,134	41.31%	321	1.86%	2,681	15.52%	17,270
Mills	5,671	68.71%	2,456	29.76%	126	1.53%	3,215	38.95%	8,253
Mitchell	3,736	64.74%	1,943	33.67%	92	1.59%	1,793	31.07%	5,771
Monona	3,331	71.84%	1,236	26.66%	70	1.51%	2,095	45.18%	4,637
Monroe	3,104	74.65%	1,002	24.10%	52	1.25%	2,102	50.55%	4,158
Montgomery	3,486	68.70%	1,508	29.72%	80	1.58%	1,978	38.98%	5,074
Muscatine	11,152	56.46%	8,212	41.58%	388	1.96%	2,940	14.88%	19,752
O'Brien	5,998	79.71%	1,428	18.98%	99	1.32%	4,570	60.73%	7,525
Osceola	2,623	81.23%	555	17.19%	51	1.58%	2,068	64.04%	3,229
Page	5,153	70.38%	2,060	28.13%	109	1.49%	3,093	42.25%	7,322
Palo Alto	3,576	71.78%	1,338	26.86%	68	1.36%	2,238	44.92%	4,982
Plymouth	10,661	76.31%	3,104	22.22%	206	1.47%	7,557	54.09%	13,971
Pocahontas	2,727	76.13%	796	22.22%	59	1.65%	1,931	53.91%	3,582
Polk	112,240	43.70%	140,075	54.54%	4,523	1.76%	-27,835	-10.84%	256,838
Pottawattamie	26,335	59.10%	17,468	39.20%	756	1.70%	8,867	19.90%	44,559
Poweshiek	5,758	57.51%	4,067	40.62%	188	1.88%	1,691	16.89%	10,013
Ringgold	2,015	75.02%	638	23.75%	33	1.23%	1,377	51.27%	2,686
Sac	4,100	75.09%	1,289	23.61%	71	1.30%	2,811	51.48%	5,460
Scott	45,976	51.01%	42,479	47.13%	1,678	1.86%	3,497	3.88%	90,133
Shelby	4,600	70.71%	1,811	27.84%	94	1.45%	2,789	42.87%	6,505
Sioux	16,053	84.49%	2,626	13.82%	322	1.69%	13,427	70.67%	19,001
Story	21,665	43.74%	26,765	54.04%	1,096	2.21%	-5,100	-10.30%	49,526
Tama	5,379	62.43%	3,070	35.63%	167	1.94%	2,309	26.80%	8,616
Taylor	2,381	77.28%	666	21.62%	34	1.10%	1,715	55.66%	3,081
Union	4,044	67.25%	1,874	31.17%	95	1.58%	2,170	36.08%	6,013
Van Buren	2,785	76.83%	778	21.46%	62	1.71%	2,007	55.37%	3,625
Wapello	9,479	65.00%	4,896	33.57%	208	1.43%	4,583	31.43%	14,583
Warren	19,486	59.40%	12,712	38.75%	606	1.85%	6,774	20.65%	32,804
Washington	7,119	61.43%	4,297	37.08%	172	1.48%	2,822	24.35%	11,588
Wayne	2,426	77.66%	643	20.58%	55	1.76%	1,783	57.08%	3,124
Webster	10,850	64.78%	5,641	33.68%	257	1.53%	5,209	31.10%	16,748
Winnebago	3,636	64.45%	1,909	33.84%	97	1.72%	1,727	30.61%	5,642
Winneshiek	6,427	53.65%	5,321	44.42%	231	1.93%	1,106	9.23%	11,979
Woodbury	25,969	60.50%	16,145	37.62%	807	1.88%	9,824	22.88%	42,921
Worth	2,715	63.33%	1,508	35.18%	64	1.49%	1,207	28.15%	4,287
Wright	3,853	67.32%	1,770	30.93%	100	1.75%	2,083	36.39%	5,723
Totals	927,019	55.73%	707,278	42.52%	29,209	1.76%	219,741	13.21%	1,663,506

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Scott (largest city: Davenport)

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.^{[60][user-generated source?]}

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	53.29%	44.86%	Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd	54.11%	44.15%	Ashley Hinson
3rd	51.33%	46.94%	Zach Nunn
4th	64.83%	33.47%	Randy Feenstra

Analysis

Iowa handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 219,741 votes. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which Iowa voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election. Notably, Trump improved his margins in 98 of 99 counties and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.^[61] Trump became the first Republican to win Scott County since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Iowa
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. While voting was ongoing, Williamson suspended and then unsuspended her campaign.
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. "Other" with 1%
5. "Someone else" with 1%
6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
7. "Not sure" with 3%; "Don't want to say" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 0%
8. "Someone else" with 15%
9. "Someone else" with 3%, "would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
2. Poll sponsored by RealClearDefense
3. Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
4. Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
5. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
6. Poll conducted for American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
3. Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
4. "Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll | US elections 2024 | The Guardian". amp.theguardian.com. November 3, 2024. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
5. "What to Make of the Shock Poll Showing Harris Ahead in Iowa?". Townhall.com. November 4, 2024. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
6. Reilly, Liam (November 17, 2024). "Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge miss"". CNN. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
7. "I investigated Ann Selzers poll showing Trump losing". MSN.com. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
8. Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Pollster J. Ann Selzer: 'I'll be reviewing data' after Iowa Poll misses big Trump win". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
9. "Trump's Iowa Win Is a Harsh Reminder to Never Trust Election Polls". The New Republic. ISSN 0028-6583. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
10. "Iowa Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
11. Murray, Isabella. "The congressional race that could indicate just how red Iowa has shifted". ABC News. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
12. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
13. Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
14. "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
15. McCullough, Caleb (April 13, 2024). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes pitch for president in Iowa". The Gazette. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
16. Gruber-Miller, Stephen. "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might stay on Iowa's ballot despite dropping out of presidential race". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 18, 2024.
17. "DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
18. "Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
19. "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers.
20. "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces it will hold caucuses Jan. 15".
21. Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT 3. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
22. Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT. Allen Media Broadcasting. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
23. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
24. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
25. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
26. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. September 18, 2024. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
27. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
28. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
29. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
30. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
31. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
32. "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
33. "InsiderAdvantage Iowa Survey". InsiderAdvantage. November 4, 2024.
34. "SoCal Strategies Iowa Poll". Substack. November 3, 2024.
35. "November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43%". Emerson College Polling. November 2, 2024.
36. "Survey of Likely General Election Voters" (PDF). Cygnal. October 1, 2024. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
37. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how". The Des Moines Register.
38. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (September 15, 2024). "Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows". The Des Moines Register.
39. "Iowans Seek Protection From Property Taxes and Income Taxes; Grapple with Inflation". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. July 15, 2024.
40. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
41. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (March 5, 2024). "Iowa Poll: Trump dominates Biden in lead-up to likely 2024 presidential election rematch". The Des Moines Register.
42. "Poll: Iowans Want Constitutional Protection From Tax Increases". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. February 16, 2024.
43. Zogby, Jeremy (January 5, 2024). "The Zogby Report - 01.05.24 – The State of Nikki Haley and Iowa". John Zogby Strategies.
44. Mumford, Camille (December 20, 2023). "Iowa 2024 Poll: Trump Maintains Support, Haley Catches DeSantis For Second Place". Emerson Polling.
45. "Iowa 2024 Poll: Plurality of Independent Voters Disapprove of Gov. Reynolds". Emerson Polling. October 13, 2023.
46. "ITRF Poll: Iowans Pessimistic About the Direction of the Country". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 4, 2023.
47. "Iowa 2024: Biden and Trump Remain Frontrunners In Caucuses, But Both Losing Ground". Emerson Polling. September 12, 2023.
48. "American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce Releases Its First 2024 Presidential Race National and Iowa Surveys of Voters, Conducted by HarrisX". PR Newswire. August 21, 2023.
49. "Iowa Poll: Trump Takes Majority of GOP Caucus-Goers, Window Closing". Big Data Poll. July 13, 2023.
50. Mumford, Camille (May 25, 2023). "Iowa 2024: Biden and Trump Start with Significant Leads in Party Caucuses". Emerson Polling.
51. "ITRF Poll: Economy and Taxes are Top of Mind for Iowa Voters". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. April 10, 2023.
52. Mumford, Camille (October 7, 2022). "Iowa 2022: Republican Candidates Grassley and Reynolds Hold Double-Digit Leads in US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections". Emerson Polling.
53. "Strong Support for Republicans; Voters Focused on Inflation". Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 6, 2022.
54. "Survey of Likely General Election Voters Iowa Statewide" (PDF). Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. July 22, 2022.
55. "Survey of Likely General Election Voters Iowa Statewide" (PDF). Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 28, 2022. Retrieved March 1, 2022.
56. Pfannenstiel, Brianne; Gruber-Miller, Stephen (December 1, 2021). "Iowa Poll: In a potential 2024 match, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by double digits". The Des Moines Register.
57. "Survey of Likely 2022 General Election Voters Iowa Statewide" (PDF). Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 25, 2021.
58. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 17, 2024). "Trump maintains big lead over Biden and RFK Jr. despite felony conviction, Iowa Poll shows". The Des Moines Register.
59. "Official Canvass by County" (PDF). Iowa SOS. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
60. "2024 U.S. Presidential Election in Iowa by Congressional District".
61. "Iowa Presidential Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 12, 2024.