2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1] Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.^[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day.^[3]

The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.^[4] This race is considered to be a tossup, or narrowly favoring Trump, given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state is now considered a purple state.^[5][6]

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.^[7] Kennedy's petition has been withdrawn, and he will not be on the ballot in Arizona.^[8] If Harris wins the state, it will be the first time since 1948 that the state has voted Democratic in two consecutive presidential elections.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Democratic primary, March 19, 2024^[9]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	375,110	89.3%	72		72
Marianne Williamson	15,844	3.8%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	11,611	2.8%
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)	6,128	1.5%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)	4,976	1.2%
Jason Palmer	3,752	0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)	2,753	0.7%
Total:	420,174	100.0%	72	13	85

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Republican Primary, March 19, 2024^[10]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	492,299	78.84%	43		43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	110,966	17.77%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	10,131	1.62%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,078	0.81%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	2,479	0.40%
David Stuckenberg	1,367	0.22%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	891	0.14%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	714	0.11%
John Anthony Castro	505	0.08%
Total:	624,430	100.00%	43		43

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".^[11][12]

General election

Candidates

The following candidates have qualified and will be on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.^[13]

• Kamala Harris — Democratic
• Donald Trump — Republican
• Chase Oliver — Libertarian
• Jill Stein — Green
• Shiva Ayyadurai — Independent (Write-in)
• President R Boddie — Nonpartisan (Write-in)
• Dawanda Shelton - Independent (Write-in)
• Joel Skousen - Constitution Party (Write-in)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[14]	Tossup	August 27, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]	Tossup	October 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16]	Tossup	August 26, 2024
CNN[17]	Tossup	August 27, 2024
The Economist[18]	Tossup	August 27, 2024
538[19]	Tossup	August 27, 2024
Inside Elections[20]	Tossup	August 29, 2024
CNalysis[21]	Tossup	October 11, 2024
RCP[22]	Tossup	August 27, 2024
NBC News[23]	Tossup	October 6, 2024

Election rule changes

Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered.^[24] In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.^[25]

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
RealClear Politics	September 19 – October 13, 2024	October 13, 2024	47.3%	48.4%	4.3%	Trump +1.1%
270ToWin	October 7 – 14, 2024	October 14, 2024	47.1%	48.9%	4.0%	Trump +1.8%
RacetotheWH	through October 10, 2024	October 14, 2024	47.8%	49.0%	3.2%	Trump +1.1%
The Hill/DDHQ	through October 10, 2024	October 13, 2024	47.4%	48.8%	3.8%	Trump +1.4%
Silver Bulletin	through October 10, 2024	October 14, 2024	47.3%	48.9%	3.8%	Trump +1.6%
538	through October 13, 2024	October 14, 2024	46.8%	48.3%	4.9%	Trump +1.5%
Average			47.3%	48.7%	4.0%	Trump +1.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[26]	October 10–13, 2024	1,090 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	48%	6%[lower-alpha 3]
New York Times/Siena College[27]	October 7–10, 2024	808 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	51%	4%
		808 (LV)		46%	51%	3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[28][upper-alpha 1]	October 6–9, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	49%	5%
Emerson College[29]	October 5–8, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%[lower-alpha 4]
				48%[lower-alpha 5]	51%	1%[lower-alpha 4]
Wall Street Journal[30]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	48%	46%	6%
ActiVote[31]	September 6 – October 8, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	51%	–
SoCal Strategies (R)[32][upper-alpha 2]	October 5–7, 2024	735 (LV)	–	49%	48%	3%
RMG Research[33][upper-alpha 3]	September 30 – October 2, 2024	783 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	50%	4%[lower-alpha 6]
				46%	50%	4%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[34][upper-alpha 4]	September 24 – October 2, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	47%	8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[35][upper-alpha 5]	September 24 – October 1, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	50%	2%[lower-alpha 7]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[36]	September 29–30, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	1%[lower-alpha 7]
HighGround[37][upper-alpha 6]	September 26–29, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	46%	6%
National Research[38][upper-alpha 7]	September 25–29, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[39][upper-alpha 8]	September 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	47%	5%
Emerson College[40][upper-alpha 9]	September 27–28, 2024	920 (LV)	± 3.2%	48%	50%	3%[lower-alpha 4]
				48%[lower-alpha 5]	52%	–
AtlasIntel[41]	September 20–25, 2024	946 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[42]	September 19–25, 2024	409 (LV)	–	50%	48%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[43]	September 19–25, 2024	977 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	47%	3%
		926 (LV)		50%	47%	3%
Fox News[44]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	50%	2%
		764 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	51%	1%
Marist College[45]	September 19−24, 2024	1,416 (RV)	± 3.6%	48%	50%	2%[lower-alpha 8]
		1,264 (LV)	± 3.8%	49%	50%	1%[lower-alpha 8]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][upper-alpha 10]	September 19–22, 2024	1,030 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%[lower-alpha 9]
New York Times/Siena College[47]	September 17–21, 2024	713 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	49%	6%
		713 (LV)		45%	50%	5%
Emerson College[48]	September 15–18, 2024	868 (LV)	± 3.3%	48%	49%	3%[lower-alpha 10]
				49%[lower-alpha 5]	50%	1%[lower-alpha 10]
Morning Consult[49]	September 9−18, 2024	862 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[50]	September 11–12, 2024	1,088 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	47%	7%[lower-alpha 3]
Data Orbital[51][upper-alpha 11]	September 7–9, 2024	550 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	46%	8%
Morning Consult[49]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	901 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%
TIPP Insights[52][upper-alpha 12]	September 3–5, 2024	1,015 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	46%	8%
		949 (LV)		47%	47%	6%
Patriot Polling[53]	September 1–3, 2024	804 (RV)	–	47%	49%	4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[54]	August 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
Emerson College[55]	August 25–28, 2024	720 (LV)	± 3.6%	47%	50%	7%
				48%[lower-alpha 5]	51%	1%[lower-alpha 4]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[56]	August 23–26, 2024	776 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	48%	4%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Fox News[57]	August 23–26, 2024	1,014 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	49%	1%
Spry Strategies (R)[58][upper-alpha 13]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	49%	3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[59][upper-alpha 14]	August 13–17, 2024	1,187 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	8%
Noble Predictive Insights[60]	August 12–16, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
Focaldata[61]	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	49%	51%	–
Strategies 360[62]	August 7–14, 2024	400 (RV)	± 4.9%	47%	46%	7%
New York Times/Siena College[63]	August 8–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	49%	45%	7%
		677 (LV)		50%	45%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[64]	August 6–8, 2024	1,092 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	48%	5%
Navigator Research (D)[65]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	49%	5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[66]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	435 (LV)	–	48%	46%	6%
HighGround[67]	July 30 – August 5, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	42%	14%[lower-alpha 11]
Public Policy Polling (D)[68][upper-alpha 15]	July 29–30, 2024	618 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	49%	4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[69][upper-alpha 16]	July 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	43%	48%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[70]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	47%	4%
Emerson College[71]	July 22–23, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.4%	44%	49%	7%
				47%[lower-alpha 5]	53%	–
	July 21, 2024	Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[72]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	48%	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][upper-alpha 15]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	44%	52%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74]	May 7–13, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	51%	7%
Emerson College[75]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	48%	12%
New York Times/Siena College[76]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	43%	48%	9%
		603 (LV)		43%	48%	9%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein Green	Cornel West Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Others/ Undecided [lower-alpha 12]	Margin
Race to the WH	through October 10, 2024	October 13, 2024	46.4%	48.8%	1.0%	—	0.8%	3.0%	Trump +2.4%
270toWin	October 2 – 12, 2024	October 12, 2024	47.4%	47.6%	1.0%	0.0%	0.5%	3.5%	Trump +0.2%
Average			46.9%	48.2%	1.0%	0.0%	0.7%	3.2%	Trump +1.3%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[27]	October 7–10, 2024	808 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	49%	–	2%	1%	4%
		808 (LV)		45%	50%	–	1%	0%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[77]	September 27 – October 2, 2024	555 (LV)	–	47%	48%	–	1%	1%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[35][upper-alpha 17]	September 24 – October 1, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	0%	3%
AtlasIntel[41]	September 20–25, 2024	946 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	–	0%	–	1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[42]	September 19–25, 2024	409 (LV)	–	50%	47%	–	1%	–	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[43]	September 19–25, 2024	977 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	–	1%	2%	2%
		926 (LV)		49%	46%	–	1%	2%	2%
Fox News[44]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	1%	1%	2%	−
		764 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	50%	0%	1%	2%	−
Suffolk University/USA Today[78]	September 19−24, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	–	1%	1%	8%
New York Times/Siena College[47]	September 17–21, 2024	713 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	47%	–	2%	3%	6%
		713 (LV)		43%	48%	–	2%	2%	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[79]	September 16–19, 2024	789 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[80]	September 6–9, 2024	765 (LV)	–	46%	47%	–	1%	1%	5%
TIPP Insights[52][upper-alpha 12]	September 3–5, 2024	1,015 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	46%	1%	1%	–	6%
		949 (LV)		48%	48%	1%	1%	–	2%
YouGov[81][upper-alpha 18]	August 23 – September 3, 2024	900 (RV)	± 4.2%	45%	47%	1%	1%	–	6%[lower-alpha 9]
CNN/SSRS[82]	August 23–29, 2024	682 (LV)	± 4.7%	44%	49%	–	2%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[83]	August 25–28, 2024	530 (LV)	–	45%	46%	–	1%	1%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[56]	August 23–26, 2024	776 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	47%	–	0%	2%	2%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	47%	–	0%	2%	2%
Fox News[57]	August 23–26, 2024	1,014 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	1%	1%	2%	1%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Wall Street Journal[30]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	47%	45%	0%	0%	1%	1%	6%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[39][upper-alpha 8]	September 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	47%	47%	0%	0%	2%	1%	3%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Spry Strategies (R)[58]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	2%	–	1%	–	5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[59][upper-alpha 14]	August 13–17, 2024	1,187 (LV)	–	44%	45%	7%	1%	0%	–	3%
Focaldata[61]	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	45%	46%	7%	–	0%	0%	2%
		702 (RV)		45%	45%	9%	–	0%	0%	1%
		702 (A)		42%	46%	9%	–	0%	0%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84]	August 12–15, 2024	592 (LV)	–	43%	44%	5%	–	1%	1%	6%
New York Times/Siena College[63]	August 8–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	42%	6%	0%	1%	2%	4%
		677 (LV)		47%	43%	5%	0%	0%	1%	4%
Navigator Research (D)[65]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	46%	5%	0%	0%	0%	4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[66]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	435 (LV)	–	46%	42%	7%	1%	0%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[85]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	567 (LV)	–	44%	43%	4%	–	0%	0%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[70]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	44%	5%	–	0%	2%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[86]	July 22–24, 2024	510 (LV)	–	43%	46%	4%	–	0%	1%	6%
Emerson College[71]	July 22–23, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	48%	5%	1%	1%	1%	4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)[87][upper-alpha 19]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	40%	46%	7%	1%	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Peak Insights (R)[88][upper-alpha 20]	July 31 – August 5, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	44%	11%	3%
Iron Light Intelligence (R)[89][upper-alpha 21]	July 29 – August 5, 2024	600 (LV)	–	43%	43%	7%	7%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D)[87][upper-alpha 19]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	44%	50%	6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[72]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	49%	7%
Emerson College[90][upper-alpha 22]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	47%	13%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[91][upper-alpha 23]	July 5–12, 2024	1,101 (LV)	± 3.0%	41%	50%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][upper-alpha 15]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	43%	51%	6%
Echelon Insights[92][upper-alpha 24]	July 1–8, 2024	601 (LV)	± 5.0%	44%	48%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[93]	July 1–5, 2024	781 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	48%	7%
Emerson College[94][upper-alpha 22]	June 30 – July 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Remington Research Group (R)[95]	June 29 – July 1, 2024	638 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	49%	9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[96][upper-alpha 12]	June 17–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	48%	10%
Emerson College[97]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	47%	10%
				48%[lower-alpha 5]	52%	–
Rasmussen Reports (R)[98]	June 11–13, 2024	750 (RV)	± 4.0%	40%	47%	13%
Fox News[99]	June 1–4, 2024	1,095 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	51%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[100][upper-alpha 25]	May 28 – June 4, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	50%	6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[101]	May 19–21, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	41%	41%	18%
		501 (LV)		45%	43%	12%
CBS News/YouGov[102]	May 10–16, 2024	1,214 (RV)	± 3.5%	47%	52%	1%
Prime Group[103][upper-alpha 26]	May 9–16, 2024	490 (RV)	–	49%	51%	–
Noble Predictive Insights[104]	May 7–14, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	44%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74]	May 7–13, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	49%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[105]	May 6–13, 2024	527 (LV)	± 4.3%	44%	45%	11%
New York Times/Siena College[106]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	626 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	49%	9%
		626 (LV)		43%	49%	8%
Emerson College[107]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	48%	8%
				48%[lower-alpha 5]	52%	–
Kaplan Strategies[108]	April 20–21, 2024	874 (RV)	± 3.3%	43%	47%	10%
John Zogby Strategies[109][upper-alpha 27]	April 13–21, 2024	630 (LV)	–	40%	51%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[110]	April 8–15, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	49%	9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[111][upper-alpha 1]	April 7–11, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	48%	8%
The Bullfinch Group[112][upper-alpha 28]	March 29 – April 3, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18%[lower-alpha 13]
RABA Research[113]	March 28–31, 2024	503 (RV)	± 4.4%	36%	39%	25%[lower-alpha 14]
Wall Street Journal[114]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	47%	11%
Echelon Insights[115][upper-alpha 29]	March 12–19, 2024	401 (LV)	± 5.7%	45%	51%	4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[116][upper-alpha 21]	March 14–17, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College[117]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	48%	8%
				48%[lower-alpha 5]	52%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118]	March 8–14, 2024	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	48%	9%
Fox News[119]	March 7–11, 2024	1,121 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	49%	6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[120]	February 21–26, 2024	1,001 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	47%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[121]	February 12–20, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	49%	8%
Emerson College[75]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
J.L. Partners[122]	January 29 – February 1, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	45%	14%
Focaldata[123]	January 17–23, 2024	783 (A)	–	39%	43%	18%[lower-alpha 15]
		– (LV)		41%	45%	14%[lower-alpha 16]
		– (LV)		50%[lower-alpha 5]	50%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[124]	January 16–21, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
The Bullfinch Group[125]	December 14–18, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	40%	50%	10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[126][upper-alpha 30]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	41%	46%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[127]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
J.L. Partners[128][upper-alpha 31]	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	48%	9%
Tulchin Research (D)[129][upper-alpha 32]	November 13–20, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	42%	16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[130]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College[131]	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	43%	16%
New York Times/Siena College[76]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	49%	7%
		603 (LV)		44%	49%	7%
Noble Predictive Insights[132]	October 25–31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	38%	46%	16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[133]	October 5–10, 2023	804 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	47%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[134]	October 7–9, 2023	627 (RV)	–	39%	44%	16%
Emerson College[135]	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	43%	45%	13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[136][upper-alpha 33]	July 22–24, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	44%	8%
Prime Group[137][upper-alpha 26]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	48%	52%	–
				31%	41%	28%[lower-alpha 17]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[138][upper-alpha 33]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	41%	11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[139][upper-alpha 33]	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	44%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[140][upper-alpha 33]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	44%	11%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][upper-alpha 34]	March 13–14, 2023	1,001 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	50%	11%
OH Predictive Insights[142]	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	39%	37%	24%
Blueprint Polling (D)[143]	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	35%	38%	27%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[144]	November 8–9, 2022	874 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	45%	8%
Targoz Market Research[145]	November 2–6, 2022	560 (LV)	± 4.1%	45%	53%	2%
Emerson College[146]	October 30 – November 1, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College[147]	September 6–7, 2022	627 (LV)	± 3.9%	41%	44%	15%
Echelon Insights[148][upper-alpha 24]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (LV)	± 4.5%	43%	47%	10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[149]	May 12–16, 2022	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	41%	18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[150][upper-alpha 1]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	51%	6%
Bendixen/Amandi International[151]	June 17–23, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	44%	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D)[87][upper-alpha 19]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	40%	45%	7%	–	2%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[152]	July 16–18, 2024	456 (LV)	–	40%	44%	7%	–	1%	8%[lower-alpha 18]
Emerson College[90][upper-alpha 22]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	46%	6%	1%	1%	10%[lower-alpha 18]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[91][upper-alpha 23]	July 5–12, 2024	1,101 (LV)	± 3.0%	37%	46%	9%	1%	1%	6%
YouGov[153][upper-alpha 18]	July 4–12, 2024	900 (RV)	± 3.9%	37%	44%	5%	1%	2%	11%
J.L. Partners[154]	July 10–11, 2024	513 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	46%	4%	–	2%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155]	July 8–10, 2024	419 (LV)	–	39%	43%	7%	–	1%	10%[lower-alpha 19]
Echelon Insights[92][upper-alpha 24]	July 1–8, 2024	601 (LV)	± 5.0%	39%	41%	11%	1%	0%	8%[lower-alpha 18]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[93]	July 1–5, 2024	781 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	45%	9%	1%	0%	7%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[96][upper-alpha 12]	June 17–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	32%	42%	13%	–	3%	10%[lower-alpha 20]
Emerson College[97]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	43%	8%	1%	1%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[98]	June 11–13, 2024	750 (RV)	± 4.0%	37%	41%	10%	2%	1%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[156]	June 8–11, 2024	430 (LV)	–	38%	40%	6%	–	1%	15%[lower-alpha 19]
Fox News[99]	June 1–4, 2024	1,095 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	46%	8%	1%	1%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[100][upper-alpha 35]	May 28 – June 4, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	45%	11%	0%	3%	4%
Prime Group[103][upper-alpha 26]	May 9–16, 2024	490 (RV)	–	40%	44%	11%	3%	2%	–
Noble Predictive Insights[104]	May 7–14, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.1%	36%	43%	8%	1%	2%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74]	May 7–13, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	45%	7%	1%	2%	5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[105]	May 6–13, 2024	527 (LV)	± 4.3%	37%	41%	10%	2%	1%	9%
New York Times/Siena College[106]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	626 (RV)	± 4.0%	33%	42%	10%	0%	2%	13%
		626 (LV)		35%	44%	8%	0%	2%	11%
Emerson College[107]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	44%	9%	1%	1%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[110]	April 8–15, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	7%	2%	0%	5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[111][upper-alpha 1]	April 7–11, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	37%	42%	10%	–	2%	9%
Wall Street Journal[114]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	34%	39%	13%	2%	1%	11%[lower-alpha 21]
Emerson College[117]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	46%	7%	1%	2%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[118]	March 8–14, 2024	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	12%	2%	1%	5%
Fox News[119]	March 7–11, 2024	1,121 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	43%	10%	1%	2%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[121]	February 12–20, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	45%	9%	1%	1%	8%
Emerson College[75]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	8%	1%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[157]	January 16–21, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	35%	43%	10%	1%	1%	10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[126][upper-alpha 30]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	32%	40%	9%	3%	2%	14%[lower-alpha 22]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[158]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	40%	10%	1%	1%	11%
J.L. Partners[128][upper-alpha 31]	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	39%	44%	5%	1%	0%	12%[lower-alpha 23]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
1983 Labs[159]	June 28–30, 2024	492 (LV)	± 4.4%	33%	48%	8%	11%[lower-alpha 24]
P2 Insights[160][upper-alpha 36]	June 11–20, 2024	650 (LV)	± 3.8%	36%	47%	7%	10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[101]	May 19–21, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	37%	39%	9%	15%
		501 (LV)		39%	43%	7%	11%
P2 Insights[161][upper-alpha 36]	May 13–21, 2024	650 (LV)	± 3.8%	38%	41%	9%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[162]	May 2–4, 2024	625 (LV)	–	42%	44%	7%	7%[lower-alpha 25]
Data Orbital[163]	April 27–29, 2024	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	38.8%	38.1%	13.5%	9.6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[164]	March 14–17, 2024	516 (LV)	–	41%	44%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[165]	December 28–30, 2023	808 (LV)	–	35%	41%	10%	14%
VCreek/AMG (R)[126][upper-alpha 30]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	35%	40%	16%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[166]	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	33%	40%	10%	17%
New York Times/Siena College[167]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	33%	33%	26%	8%
		603 (LV)		34%	34%	24%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[134]	October 7–9, 2023	627 (LV)	–	37%	42%	8%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
North Star Opinion Research[116][upper-alpha 21]	March 14–17, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	33%	37%	18%	2%	10%
J.L. Partners[128][upper-alpha 31]	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.4%	34%	39%	4%	1%	22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	40%	11%	1%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Emerson College[135]	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	41%	42%	4%	13%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[109][upper-alpha 27]	April 13–21, 2024	630 (LV)	–	34%	52%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[109][upper-alpha 27]	April 13–21, 2024	630 (LV)	–	39%	46%	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][upper-alpha 15]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	44%	51%	5%
Emerson College[75]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	34%	47%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Gretchen Whitmer Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][upper-alpha 15]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	45%	49%	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	JB Pritzker Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][upper-alpha 15]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	41%	47%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][upper-alpha 15]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	43%	46%	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Pete Buttigieg Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[73][upper-alpha 15]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	46%	49%	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[87][upper-alpha 19]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	43%	45%	6%	1%	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[166]	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	33%	25%	19%	23%[lower-alpha 26]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R)[126][upper-alpha 30]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	30%	37%	33%
New York Times/Siena College[169]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	38%	45%	17%
		603 (LV)		37%	46%	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[166]	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	34%	27%	17%	22%[lower-alpha 27]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[169]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	46%	13%
		603 (LV)		42%	46%	12%
Noble Predictive Insights[132]	October 25 – 31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	37%	40%	23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[136][upper-alpha 33]	July 22–24, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	39%	46%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[138][upper-alpha 33]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	40%	46%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[139][upper-alpha 33]	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	43%	47%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[140][upper-alpha 33]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	10%
OH Predictive Insights[142]	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	35%	36%	29%
Blueprint Polling (D)[143]	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	37%	43%	20%
Echelon Insights[148][upper-alpha 24]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (LV)	± 4.5%	43%	43%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Mike Pence Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[139][upper-alpha 33]	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	43%	12%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona^[170]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware
	Write-in
Total votes

See also

• United States presidential elections in Arizona
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Other" with 3%
4. "Someone else" with 1%
5. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
6. "Some other candidate" with 2%
7. "Other" with 1%
8. "Another party's candidates" with 1%
9. "Other" with 2%
10. "Someone else" with 2%
11. "Some other candidate" with 5%
12. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
13. Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
14. "Someone else" with 15%
15. "Another candidate" with 12%
16. "Another candidate" with 11%
17. No Labels candidate
18. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
19. Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
20. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
21. Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
22. Joe Manchin with 4%
23. "Someone else" with 12%
24. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
25. Jill Stein (G) with 2%
26. "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
27. "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
2. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
3. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
4. Poll conducted for the Article III Project
5. Poll commissioned by AARP
6. Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
7. Poll sponsored by the Democracy Defense Project and Echo Canyon Consulting
8. Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
9. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
10. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
11. Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
12. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
13. Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
14. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
15. Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
16. Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
17. Poll commissioned by AARP
18. Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
19. Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
20. Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
21. Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
22. Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
23. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
24. Poll sponsored by NetChoice
25. Poll commissioned by AARP
26. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
27. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
28. Poll sponsored by Independent Center
29. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
30. Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
31. Poll conducted for The Daily Mail
32. Poll sponsored by Stand for Children Arizona
33. Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
34. Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
35. Poll commissioned by AARP
36. Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates

References

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2. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved July 22, 2023.
3. "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
4. Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
5. "County Population Totals: 2010-2019". United States Census Bureau. Archived from the original on April 18, 2019. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
6. Collins, Keith; Fessenden, Ford; Gamio, Lazaro; Harris, Rich; Keefe, John; Lu, Denise; Lutz, Eleanor; Schoenfeld Walker, Amy; Watkins, Derek (November 10, 2020). "Phoenix's Blue Wave Pushes Arizona Toward Biden". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on January 31, 2021. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
7. Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
8. McDuffie, Will; Santucci, John (August 22, 2024). "RFK Jr. withdraws petition to be on Arizona ballot amid plans to end campaign". ABC News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
9. "Arizona Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
10. "Arizona Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
11. Stern, Ray (February 15, 2024). "Arizona lawmaker wants to give state electoral votes to GOP nominee before 2024 election". Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 18, 2024. Retrieved February 18, 2024.
12. Jones, Rachel. "H.C.R. 2055" (PDF). Arizona Legislature. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
13. "2024 General Election - Candidate Listing (Federal)". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
14. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
15. "2024 Electoral College ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball.
16. "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill.
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