2020 VV
Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid / From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2020 VV is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 12 meters (40 feet) in diameter. On 20 November 2020, the asteroid had a 4.4% chance of impacting Earth on 12 October 2033 11:43 UT.[5] As of mid-December 2020, the asteroid has a modest 61 day observation arc. The nominal Earth approach is on 17 October 2033 at a distance of 0.009 AU (1,300,000 km; 840,000 mi), but the line of variations (LOV) is only known with an accuracy of ±22 hours.[3] The line of variations allows the asteroid to come as close as 0.006 AU (900,000 km; 560,000 mi) or pass as far away as 0.01 AU (1,500,000 km; 930,000 mi).[3] With a diameter range of 10–22 meters the asteroid could be as large as the Chelyabinsk meteor.
Discovery[2] | |
---|---|
Discovered by | Mount Lemmon Survey (G96) |
Discovery date | 5 November 2020 |
Designations | |
2020 VV | |
Orbital characteristics[3] | |
Epoch 2020-May-31 (JD 2459000.5) | |
Uncertainty parameter 5 | |
Observation arc | 61 days[4] |
Earliest precovery date | 17 October 2020 |
Aphelion | 1.2367 AU (185,010,000 km) (Q) |
Perihelion | 0.9830 AU (147,050,000 km) (q) |
1.1099 AU (166,040,000 km) (a) | |
Eccentricity | 0.1143 (e) |
1.17 yr | |
268.100° (M) | |
Inclination | 0.350° (i) |
20.148° (Ω) | |
330.663° (ω) | |
Earth MOID | 14,800 km |
Jupiter MOID | 3.96 AU (592,000,000 km) |
Physical characteristics | |
~12 meters (40 feet)[4] 10–22 meters (CNEOS) | |
27.25[3] | |
2020 VV was discovered on 5 November 2020 when it was about 0.036 AU (5,400,000 km; 3,300,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 150 degrees. It has a very low 0.35° orbital inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 14,800 km.[3] The asteroid passed Earth on 21 October 2020 at a distance of 0.0215 AU (3,220,000 km; 2,000,000 mi).[3]
Where Earth will be on a given date is known, but given the short observation arc where precisely the asteroid will be on its orbit in 2033 is not. A slight variation in the known orbit of the asteroid can cause the asteroid to be early, right on time (impact solution), or late.[lower-alpha 1]
Impact probabilities are calculated independently by Sentry, NEODyS-2 and ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme. Different models result in slightly different orbit solutions, nominal close approach distances, and impact probabilities.[6] With a long enough observation arc these solutions will converge. In general when the nominal approach is closer to the impact scenario, the odds of impact are greater.
Date and time | Nominal closest approach | Position uncertainty[lower-alpha 2] | Impact probability on 12 Oct 2033[lower-alpha 3] |
Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|
12 October 2033 11:43 | expired impact scenario | ±2.5 hours | Sentry[4][lower-alpha 1] | |
17 October 2033 08:57 | 0.0089 AU (1,330,000 km) | 0.000734 AU (109,800 km) | none | ESA[7][8] |
17 October 2033 09:30 | 0.0090 AU (1,350,000 km) | 0.0008398 AU (125,630 km) | none | JPL SBDB[3][4] |
17 October 2033 13:26 | 0.0094 AU (1,410,000 km) | 0.000851 AU (127,300 km) | none | NEODyS-2[9] |
The line of variation (risk corridor) for 2033 passed over the northeastern USA, Spain, Saudi Arabia, India, and China.[1]
The greatest chances of impact were listed between 17 and 20 November 2020. On 17 November 2020 the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 4.2% chance (1 in 24) of impact,[10] Sentry listed a 2.8% chance (1 in 36),[11] and NEODyS-2 listed a cumulative 5.9% chance of impact.[11] By 20 November 2020 with a 15-day observation arc NEODyS-2 listed a 4.4% chance (1 in 23) of impact.[5][lower-alpha 4] At the same time, Sentry listed a 1.3% chance (1 in 77) of impact, and the Space Situational Awareness Programme listed a 1.6% chance (1 in 63).
2020 VV is not categorized as a potentially hazardous object, because the estimated size is significantly smaller than the threshold of about 140 meters for potentially hazardous objects.