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The 2020 United States presidential election in South Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] South Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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Turnout | 72.1% (4.24 pp) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trump carried South Carolina by a margin of 11.68%, down from his 14.27% margin four years earlier. Prior to this election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a red state.
South Carolina was the only East Coast state in 2020 to vote Republican by a double-digit margin.[3] This was the first time that both main party candidates won more than one million votes in a statewide election in South Carolina, alongside the concurrent Senate election.
On September 7, 2019, the South Carolina Republican Party became one of several state GOP affiliates to cancel their respective primaries and caucuses officially.[4] Donald J. Trump's re-election campaign and Republican officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought second terms in 1992 and 2004, respectively, and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking re-election in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[5][6]
In response to the cancellation, former U.S. Representative Bob Inglis and another South Carolina Republican voter filed a lawsuit against the South Carolina Republican Party on grounds that it denied their right to vote. On December 11, 2019, a state court judge dismissed the lawsuit, writing in his opinion that the law "does not give plaintiffs a legal right to presidential preference primary".[7] Thus at the South Carolina State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party formally bound all 50 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[8]
The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 29, 2020.
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[12] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 262,336 | 48.65 | 39 |
Bernie Sanders | 106,605 | 19.77 | 15 |
Tom Steyer | 61,140 | 11.34 | |
Pete Buttigieg | 44,217 | 8.20 | |
Elizabeth Warren | 38,120 | 7.07 | |
Amy Klobuchar | 16,900 | 3.13 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 6,813 | 1.26 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 1,069 | 0.20 | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 765 | 0.14 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 658 | 0.12 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn) | 352 | 0.07 | |
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 288 | 0.05 | |
Total | 539,263 | 100% | 54 |
Official results show that Joe Biden won the Democratic primary with 48.65% of the vote, with Bernie Sanders coming in second with 19.77%.[9][10][11]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[13] | Likely R | September 10, 2020 |
Inside Elections[14] | Likely R | September 4, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely R | July 14, 2020 |
Politico[16] | Safe R | September 8, 2020 |
RCP[17] | Lean R | August 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[18] | Safe R | July 26, 2020 |
CNN[19] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[20] | Likely R | September 2, 2020 |
CBS News[21] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
270towin[22] | Likely R | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[23] | Safe R | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[24] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
NBC News[25] | Likely R | August 6, 2020 |
538[26] | Likely R | September 9, 2020 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win[27] | October 15, 2020 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 43.3% | 50.3% | 6.4% | Trump +7.0 |
FiveThirtyEight[28] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 44.5% | 51.6% | 3.9% | Trump +7.1 |
Average | 43.9% | 51.0% | 5.1% | Trump +7.1 |
Polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimus[29] | Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 39% | – | – | 2%[c] | 8% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 2,485 (LV) | ± 3% | 56%[d] | 42% | – | – | – | – |
Data For Progress[31] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 44% | 2% | 0% | 0%[e] | – |
Swayable[32] | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 426 (LV) | ± 7.4% | 50% | 49% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
Morning Consult[33] | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 904 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 4,725 (LV) | – | 54% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
Data for Progress[34] | Oct 22–27, 2020 | 1,196 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 44% | 1% | 0% | – | 4% |
Starboard Communications[35] | Oct 26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | – | – | 5% |
East Carolina University[36] | Oct 24–25, 2020 | 763 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 44% | – | – | 3%[f] | 1% |
Morning Consult[33] | Oct 11–20, 2020 | 926 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
New York Times/Siena College[37] | Oct 9–14, 2020 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 1%[g] | 6%[h] |
Data for Progress[38] | Oct 8–11, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 43% | 1% | 1% | – | 4% |
Morning Consult[33] | Oct 2–11, 2020 | 903 (LV) | ± 3% | 54% | 42% | – | – | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,833 (LV) | – | 53% | 45% | – | – | – | 2% |
GBAO Strategies/DSCC[39][A] | Sep 24–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
Data for Progress (D)[40] | Sep 23–28, 2020 | 824 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47%[i] | 43% | 1% | 1% | – | 8% |
50%[j] | 45% | – | – | – | 5% | ||||
Quinnipiac University[41] | Sep 23–27, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | – | – | 1%[k] | 4% |
YouGov/CBS[42] | Sep 22–25, 2020 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 42% | – | – | 2%[l] | 4% |
Morning Consult[43] | Sep 11–20, 2020 | 764 (LV) | ± (3% – 4%) | 50%[m] | 44% | – | – | – | – |
Quinnipiac University[44] | Sep 10–14, 2020 | 969 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 45% | – | – | 0%[n] | 4% |
Morning Consult[45] | Sep 2–11, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 51% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
Morning Consult[45] | Aug 23 – Sep 1, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 52% | 42% | – | – | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,326 (LV) | – | 53% | 45% | – | – | – | 2% |
Morning Consult[45] | Aug 13–22, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 51% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
Morning Consult[45] | Aug 3–12, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
Quinnipiac University[46] | Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 | 914 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | – | 4%[o] | 7% |
Morning Consult[47] | Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 | 741 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49%[p] | 44% | – | – | 3%[q] | 4% |
Morning Consult[45] | Jul 23 – Aug 1, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,700 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | – | – | – | 2% |
Morning Consult[45] | Jul 13–22, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%–4%) | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
ALG Research/Lindsey Must Go[48][B] | Jul 15–20, 2020 | 591 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | – | – | 1% | 4% |
Gravis Marketing[49] | Jul 17, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
brilliant corners Research & Strategies/Jaime Harrison[50][C] | Jul 13–19, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 863 (LV) | – | 52% | 47% | – | – | – | 2% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos[51] | May 23–26, 2020 | 591 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 42% | – | – | 5%[r] | 1% |
AtlasIntel[52] | Feb 25–28, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 42% | – | – | 11% | – |
East Carolina University[53] | Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 | 1,756 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 40% | – | – | – | 8% |
Change Research[54] | Jun 11–14, 2019 | 2,312 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 54% | 38% | 3%[s] | 1%[s] | – | – |
Emerson College[55] | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 48% | – | – | – | – |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald J. Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald J. Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Donald J. Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald J. Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald J. Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald J. Trump vs. Tom Steyer
Donald J. Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Donald J. Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald J. Trump vs Kamala Harris
Donald J. Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Donald J. Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald J. Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
with Donald J. Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz
|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Donald J. Trump (incumbent) Michael R. Pence (incumbent) |
1,385,103 | 55.11% | +0.17% | |
Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,091,541 | 43.43% | +2.76% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
27,916 | 1.11% | −1.23% | |
Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
6,907 | 0.27% | −0.35% | |
Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
1,862 | 0.07% | N/A | |
Write-in | |||||
Turnout | 2,513,329 | 72.1%[58] | 4.24% | ||
Total votes | 2,513,329 | 100.00% |
County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Abbeville | 8,215 | 66.07% | 4,101 | 32.98% | 117 | 0.95% | 4,114 | 33.09% | 12,433 |
Aiken | 51,589 | 60.56% | 32,275 | 37.89% | 1,321 | 1.55% | 19,314 | 22.67% | 85,185 |
Allendale | 835 | 23.24% | 2,718 | 75.65% | 40 | 1.11% | -1,883 | -52.41% | 3,593 |
Anderson | 67,565 | 70.31% | 27,169 | 28.27% | 1,359 | 1.42% | 40,396 | 42.04% | 96,093 |
Bamberg | 2,417 | 37.29% | 4,010 | 61.86% | 55 | 0.85% | -1,593 | -24.57% | 6,482 |
Barnwell | 5,492 | 53.21% | 4,720 | 45.73% | 109 | 1.06% | 772 | 7.48% | 10,321 |
Beaufort | 53,194 | 54.37% | 43,419 | 44.38% | 1,222 | 1.25% | 9,775 | 9.99% | 97,835 |
Berkeley | 57,397 | 54.95% | 45,223 | 43.29% | 1,838 | 1.76% | 12,174 | 11.66% | 104,458 |
Calhoun | 4,305 | 51.92% | 3,905 | 47.10% | 81 | 0.98% | 400 | 4.82% | 8,291 |
Charleston | 93,297 | 42.63% | 121,485 | 55.51% | 4,075 | 1.86% | -28,188 | -12.88% | 218,857 |
Cherokee | 18,043 | 71.40% | 6,983 | 27.63% | 244 | 0.97% | 11,060 | 43.77% | 25,270 |
Chester | 8,660 | 54.96% | 6,941 | 44.05% | 156 | 0.99% | 1,719 | 10.91% | 15,757 |
Chesterfield | 11,297 | 59.85% | 7,431 | 39.37% | 148 | 0.78% | 3,866 | 20.48% | 18,876 |
Clarendon | 8,361 | 49.97% | 8,250 | 49.30% | 112 | 0.73% | 111 | 0.67% | 16,733 |
Colleton | 10,440 | 54.14% | 8,602 | 44.61% | 241 | 1.25% | 1,838 | 9.53% | 19,283 |
Darlington | 16,832 | 51.92% | 15,220 | 46.95% | 365 | 1.13% | 1,612 | 4.97% | 32,417 |
Dillon | 6,582 | 50.24% | 6,436 | 49.13% | 83 | 0.63% | 146 | 1.11% | 13,101 |
Dorchester | 41,913 | 54.24% | 33,824 | 43.77% | 1,541 | 1.99% | 8,089 | 10.47% | 77,278 |
Edgefield | 8,184 | 61.52% | 4,953 | 37.23% | 167 | 1.25% | 3,231 | 24.29% | 13,304 |
Fairfield | 4,625 | 38.11% | 7,382 | 60.83% | 129 | 1.06% | -2,757 | -22.72% | 12,136 |
Florence | 32,615 | 50.56% | 31,153 | 48.29% | 742 | 1.15% | 1,462 | 2.27% | 64,510 |
Georgetown | 20,487 | 55.87% | 15,822 | 43.15% | 359 | 0.98% | 4,665 | 12.72% | 36,668 |
Greenville | 150,021 | 58.11% | 103,030 | 39.91% | 5,104 | 1.98% | 46,991 | 18.20% | 258,155 |
Greenwood | 19,431 | 60.71% | 12,145 | 37.95% | 430 | 1.34% | 7,286 | 22.76% | 32,006 |
Hampton | 3,906 | 41.98% | 5,323 | 57.21% | 76 | 0.81% | -1,417 | -15.23% | 9,305 |
Horry | 118,821 | 66.11% | 59,180 | 32.92% | 1,743 | 0.97% | 59,641 | 33.19% | 179,744 |
Jasper | 7,078 | 49.17% | 7,185 | 49.92% | 131 | 0.91% | -107 | -0.75% | 14,394 |
Kershaw | 20,471 | 60.87% | 12,699 | 37.76% | 459 | 1.37% | 7,772 | 23.11% | 33,629 |
Lancaster | 30,312 | 60.78% | 18,937 | 37.97% | 619 | 1.25% | 11,375 | 22.81% | 49,868 |
Laurens | 20,004 | 65.61% | 10,159 | 33.32% | 325 | 1.07% | 9,845 | 32.29% | 30,488 |
Lee | 3,008 | 35.68% | 5,329 | 63.21% | 94 | 1.11% | -2,321 | -27.53% | 8,431 |
Lexington | 92,817 | 64.20% | 49,301 | 34.10% | 2,450 | 1.70% | 43,516 | 30.10% | 144,568 |
Marion | 5,711 | 38.84% | 8,872 | 60.34% | 121 | 0.82% | -3,161 | -21.50% | 14,704 |
Marlboro | 5,044 | 44.07% | 6,290 | 54.95% | 112 | 0.98% | -1,246 | -10.88% | 11,446 |
McCormick | 2,958 | 51.92% | 2,687 | 47.17% | 52 | 0.91% | 271 | 4.75% | 5,697 |
Newberry | 11,443 | 61.42% | 6,958 | 37.35% | 230 | 1.23% | 4,485 | 24.07% | 18,631 |
Oconee | 29,698 | 73.03% | 10,414 | 25.61% | 556 | 1.36% | 19,284 | 47.42% | 40,668 |
Orangeburg | 13,603 | 33.01% | 27,295 | 66.24% | 307 | 0.75% | -13,692 | -33.23% | 41,205 |
Pickens | 42,907 | 74.56% | 13,645 | 23.71% | 994 | 1.73% | 29,262 | 50.85% | 57,546 |
Richland | 58,313 | 30.09% | 132,570 | 68.40% | 2,939 | 1.51% | -74,257 | -38.31% | 193,822 |
Saluda | 6,210 | 66.96% | 2,963 | 31.95% | 101 | 1.09% | 3,247 | 35.01% | 9,274 |
Spartanburg | 93,560 | 62.94% | 52,926 | 35.60% | 2,169 | 1.46% | 40,634 | 27.34% | 148,655 |
Sumter | 21,000 | 42.93% | 27,379 | 55.97% | 541 | 1.10% | -6,379 | -13.04% | 48,920 |
Union | 8,183 | 61.73% | 4,935 | 37.23% | 139 | 1.04% | 3,248 | 24.50% | 13,257 |
Williamsburg | 5,532 | 34.61% | 10,289 | 64.37% | 164 | 1.02% | -4,757 | -29.76% | 15,985 |
York | 82,727 | 57.43% | 59,008 | 40.96% | 2,315 | 1.61% | 23,719 | 16.47% | 144,050 |
Totals | 1,385,103 | 55.11% | 1,091,541 | 43.43% | 36,685 | 1.46% | 293,562 | 11.68% | 2,513,329 |
Trump won 6 of the 7 congressional districts.
District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52.1% | 46.1% | Joe Cunningham |
Nancy Mace | |||
2nd | 54.9% | 43.6% | Joe Wilson |
3rd | 68.1% | 30.5% | Jeff Duncan |
4th | 59.3% | 38.9% | William Timmons |
5th | 57.6% | 41% | Ralph Norman |
6th | 31.8% | 67% | Jim Clyburn |
7th | 58.8% | 40.2% | Tom Rice |
South Carolina—a Deep Southern Bible Belt state that was once part of the Democratic Solid South—has had a Republican tendency since 1964. Since its narrow vote for Kennedy in 1960, it has voted Democratic only in 1976, for Jimmy Carter, the former governor of the neighboring state of Georgia. Accordingly, it has long been the most conservative state on the East Coast of the United States,[59] although it has not been as conservative as its fellow Deep South states of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, largely due to populous and fast-growing Charleston and Richland Counties' trending more Democratic in the 21st century. As in the case of other Deep Southern states, South Carolina also has a large African-American population[60] that helps keep the state somewhat more competitive than much of the Upper South. (The final state in the Deep South, Georgia, has become much more competitive than any of its fellow Deep South states in recent years due to the explosive growth of the Atlanta area.)
Trump performed somewhat better than polls anticipated, as aggregate polls averaged him only 7 points ahead of Biden.[61] He flipped Clarendon County for the first time since 1972 and Dillon County for the first time since 1988. Biden became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win the presidency without Clarendon, Calhoun, Colleton, and McCormick counties and the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman to win without Dillon and Chester counties.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in the Palmetto State came from White, born-again/Evangelical Christians, who supported Trump by 87%–90%. South Carolina is entirely in the Bible Belt. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: White South Carolinians supported Trump by 69%–29%, while Black South Carolinians supported Biden by 92%–7%.[62]
In other elections, longtime Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham won another term in the United States Senate by 10.27 percentage points over Democrat Jaime Harrison. While Harrison lost by a double-digit margin, he still slightly outperformed Biden.
2020 presidential election in South Carolina by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[63][64] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
Total vote | 43.43 | 55.11 | 100 |
Ideology | |||
Liberals | 92 | 7 | 15 |
Moderates | 56 | 42 | 38 |
Conservatives | 14 | 85 | 47 |
Party | |||
Democrats | 96 | 4 | 30 |
Republicans | 4 | 95 | 41 |
Independents | 46 | 50 | 29 |
Gender | |||
Men | 41 | 57 | 45 |
Women | 45 | 53 | 55 |
Race/ethnicity | |||
White | 26 | 73 | 66 |
Black | 90 | 7 | 26 |
Latino | – | – | 5 |
Asian | – | – | 0 |
Other | – | – | 3 |
Age | |||
18–24 years old | 53 | 42 | 9 |
25–29 years old | 30 | 68 | 6 |
30–39 years old | 50 | 47 | 12 |
40–49 years old | 53 | 46 | 18 |
50–64 years old | 38 | 61 | 28 |
65 and older | 40 | 60 | 27 |
Sexual orientation | |||
LGBT | – | – | 5 |
Not LGBT | 40 | 59 | 95 |
Education | |||
High school or less | 46 | 53 | 22 |
Some college education | 46 | 53 | 25 |
Associate degree | 36 | 63 | 17 |
Bachelor's degree | 43 | 55 | 23 |
Postgraduate degree | 43 | 56 | 14 |
Income | |||
Under $30,000 | 62 | 38 | 23 |
$30,000–49,999 | 42 | 56 | 18 |
$50,000–99,999 | 47 | 51 | 31 |
Over $100,000 | 34 | 64 | 30 |
Issue regarded as most important | |||
Racial inequality | 88 | 10 | 15 |
Coronavirus | 89 | 10 | 16 |
Economy | 11 | 87 | 36 |
Crime and safety | 16 | 84 | 14 |
Health care | – | – | 11 |
Region | |||
Upcountry | 32 | 66 | 25 |
Piedmont | 41 | 57 | 14 |
Central | 52 | 46 | 24 |
Pee Dee/Waccamaw | 43 | 57 | 15 |
Low Country | 49 | 50 | 21 |
Area type | |||
Urban | 55 | 43 | 14 |
Suburban | 40 | 58 | 49 |
Rural | 43 | 56 | 37 |
Family's financial situation today | |||
Better than four years ago | 15 | 84 | 49 |
Worse than four years ago | 88 | 12 | 17 |
About the same | 65 | 31 | 32 |
Partisan clients
Additional candidates
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