2016 United States Senate election in Washington

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

The 2016 United States Senate election in Washington was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Washington. Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray ran for re-election to a fifth term,^[1] and won by a significant margin, winning 59% of the vote, to Republican Chris Vance's 41%.

2016 United States Senate election in Washington

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →

Nominee Patty Murray Chris Vance Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,913,979 1,329,338 Percentage 58.83% 40.86%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Murray:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Vance:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election Patty Murray Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Patty Murray Democratic

The election took place concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under Washington's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, voters had the choice to vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers—regardless of party—advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. California is the only other state with this system, a so-called "top two primary" (Louisiana has a similar "jungle primary", but there is no general election if one candidate receives 50% plus one vote of all votes cast in the primary).

As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat running statewide for federal office has won Grays Harbor and Mason Counties.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Declared

• Thor Amundson^[2]
• Phil Cornell, retired communications technician^[3]
• Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Mohammed Said^[2]

Republican Party

Declared

• Eric John Makus^[2]
• Uncle Mover^[2]
• Scott Nazarino^[2]
• Chris Vance, former state representative, former member of the King County Council, and former chair of the Washington State Republican Party^[4]

Declined

• Bill Bryant, Seattle Port Commissioner (running for governor)^[5][6]
• Andy Hill, state senator^[5]
• Jaime Herrera Beutler, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^[7]
• Steve Litzow, state senator (running for re-election)^[5]
• Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012^[8]
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^[7]
• Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^[5][9][10]
• Dino Rossi, former state senator, nominee for Governor of Washington in 2004 and 2008, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010^[5]

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

• Pano Churchill (Lincoln Caucus)^[2]
• Ted Cummings (independent)^[2]
• Zach Haller (independent)^[2]
• Chuck Jackson (independent)^[2]
• Donna Rae Lands (Conservative)^[2]
• Mike Luke (Libertarian)^[2]
• Jeremy Teuton (System Reboot)^[2]
• Alex Tsimerman (StandUpAmerica)^[2]
• Sam Wright (Human Rights)^[2]

Results

Results by county:

  Murray—30–40%

  Murray—40–50%

  Murray—50–60%

  Murray—60–70%

  Vance—30–40%

  Vance—40–50%

Blanket primary election results^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patty Murray (incumbent)	745,421	53.82%
	Republican	Chris Vance	381,004	27.51%
	Republican	Eric John Makus	57,825	4.18%
	Democratic	Phil Cornell	46,460	3.35%
	Republican	Scott Nazarino	41,542	3.00%
	Libertarian	Mike Luke	20,988	1.52%
	Democratic	Mohammad Said	13,362	0.96%
	Independent	Donna Rae Lands	11,472	0.83%
	Independent	Ted Cummings	11,028	0.80%
	Independent	Sam Wright	10,751	0.78%
	Republican	Uncle Mover	8,569	0.62%
	Independent	Jeremy Teuton	7,991	0.58%
	Democratic	Thor Amundson	7,906	0.57%
	Independent	Chuck Jackson	6,318	0.46%
	Independent	Pano Churchill	5,150	0.37%
	Independent	Zach Haller	5,092	0.37%
	Independent	Alex Tsimerman	4,117	0.30%
Total votes			1,384,996	100.00%

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Murray	Vance	Link
October 16, 2016	Seattle, Washington	Participant	Participant	[12]
October 23, 2016	Redmond, Washington	Participant	Participant	[13]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[14]	Safe D	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[16]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[17]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[18]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Chris Vance (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey[19]	November 1–7, 2016	1,451	± 4.6%	59%	37%	—	4%
Insights West[20]	November 4–6, 2016	402	± 4.9%	53%	37%	—	11%
SurveyMonkey[21]	October 31–November 6, 2016	1,292	± 4.6%	59%	37%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey[22]	October 28–November 3, 2016	944	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
SurveyUSA[23]	October 31–November 2, 2016	667	± 3.9%	53%	41%	—	6%
SurveyMonkey[24]	October 27–November 2, 2016	807	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey[25]	October 26–November 1, 2016	698	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey[26]	October 25–31, 2016	745	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
Elway Poll[27]	October 20–22, 2016	502	± 4.5%	58%	34%	—	8%
KCTS 9/YouGov[28]	October 6–13, 2016	750	± 4.4%	55%	39%	—	16%
Strategies 360/KOMO News[29]	September 29–October 3, 2016	500	± 4.4%	57%	36%	—	6%
Emerson College[30]	September 25–26, 2016	700	± 3.6%	48%	41%	3%	8%
Insights West[31]	September 12–14, 2016	505	± 4.4%	46%	25%	2%	27%
Elway Poll[32]	August 9–13, 2016	500	± 4.5%	52%	34%	—	14%
Elway Poll[33]	April 14–17, 2016	503	± 3.5%	50%	32%	—	18%
Elway Poll[34]	October 13–15, 2015	500	± 4.5%	44%	23%	—	33%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	46%	41%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	48%	37%	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	47%	37%	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	48%	35%	17%

Hypothetical polling

with Rob McKenna

with Dave Reichert

with Jaime Herrera Beutler

with Cathy McMorris Rodgers

Results

At 1,913,979 votes, Murray made history by receiving the most votes in a United States Senate election in Washington state.

United States Senate election in Washington, 2016 ^[36]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Patty Murray (incumbent)	1,913,979	58.83%	+6.75%
	Republican	Chris Vance	1,329,338	40.86%	−6.51%
	Write-in		10,071	0.31%	-0.24%
Total votes			3,253,388	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
• Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)
• Skagit (largest city: Mount Vernon)
• Clallam (largest city: Port Angeles)
• Mason (largest city: Shelton)
• Clark (Largest city: Vancouver)
• Whitman (Largest city: Pullman)

By congressional district

Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.^[37]

District	Murray	Vance	Representative
1st	56.25%	43.75%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	61.31%	38.69%	Rick Larsen
3rd	49.46%	50.54%	Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th	44.13%	55.87%	Dan Newhouse
5th	47.84%	52.16%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th	58.15%	41.85%	Derek Kilmer
7th	82.62%	17.38%	Jim McDermott
			Pramila Jayapal
8th	51.67%	48.33%	Dave Reichert
9th	72.08%	27.92%	Adam Smith
10th	57.71%	42.29%	Denny Heck

See also

• 2016 United States Senate elections

References

1. Brunner, Jim (February 9, 2014). "Patty Murray to seek fifth Senate term in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
2. Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
3. http://www.philcornell4ussenate.org Archived May 17, 2016, at the Wayback Machine Phil Cornell (D) for Senate
4. Pathé, Simone (September 8, 2015). "Former Washington GOP Chairman to Challenge Patty Murray". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 26, 2015. Retrieved September 8, 2015.
5. Pathe, Simone (May 8, 2015). "GOP Searches for Patty Murray Challenger". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 9, 2015. Retrieved May 8, 2015.
6. Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
7. "Washington Voters Grow Further In Support of Gay Marriage, Marijuana, Background Checks" (PDF) (Press release). Public Policy Polling. May 20, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
8. Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins law firm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
9. Joseph, Cameron (August 9, 2013). "Rep. Reichert 'thinking about' run for Senate, governor in Washington". The Hill. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
10. Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
11. "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 22, 2016.
12. Full debate - C-SPAN
13. Full debate - C-SPAN
14. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
15. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
16. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
17. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
18. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
19. SurveyMonkey
20. Insights West^[usurped]
21. SurveyMonkey
22. SurveyMonkey
23. SurveyUSA
24. SurveyMonkey
25. SurveyMonkey
26. SurveyMonkey
27. Elway Poll
28. KCTS 9/YouGov Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
29. Strategies 360/KOMO News
30. Emerson College
31. Insights West^[usurped]
32. Elway Poll
33. Elway Poll
34. Elway Poll
35. Public Policy Polling
36. "November 8, 2016 General Election Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2016.
37. Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Patty Murray (D) for Senate
• Chris Vance (R) for Senate