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The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[1]
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Turnout | 30.4% 2.1 pp | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Bevin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Conway: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%. With a margin of 8.7%, this election was the closest race of the 2015 gubernatorial election cycle. As of 2023, this was the only time since 2003 that a Republican was elected Governor of Kentucky.
This is the only instance in history in which Knott County has backed a Republican candidate for governor.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway |
Geoff Young |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 707 | ± 3.5% | 68% | 13% | 19% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.9% | 61% | 12% | 27% |
Harper Polling | January 28–31, 2015 | 255 | ± 6.14% | 59% | 13% | 28% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jack Conway | 140,627 | 78.8% | |
Democratic | Geoff Young | 37,887 | 21.2% | |
Total votes | 178,514 | 100.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cathy Bailey |
Matt Bevin |
James Comer |
Hal Heiner |
Will T. Scott |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 517 | ± 4.4% | — | 27% | 26% | 25% | 8% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | May 6–7, 2015 | 501 | ± 4.4% | — | 25% | 28% | 27% | — | 20% |
Triumph Campaigns | March 26, 2015 | 601 | ± 4% | — | 12% | 19% | 33% | 3% | 29% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 520 | ± 4.4% | — | 20% | 20% | 28% | 8% | 25% |
Harper Polling | January 28–31, 2015 | 261 | ± 6.07% | — | 18% | 25% | 19% | 9% | 30% |
Remington Research | January 27–28, 2015 | 1,000 | ± ? | — | 19% | 22% | 18% | 5% | 26% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 383 | ± ? | 11% | 25% | 20% | 18% | — | 26% |
— | — | 22% | 28% | — | 50% | ||||
Public Opinion Strategies | February 26–27, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | — | — | 42% | 14% | — | 13% |
On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[61]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Bevin | 70,480 | 32.91% | |
Republican | James Comer | 70,397 | 32.89% | |
Republican | Hal Heiner | 57,951 | 27.10% | |
Republican | Will T. Scott | 15,365 | 7.20% | |
Total votes | 214,187 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[104] | Tossup | October 26, 2015 |
Rothenberg Political Report[105] | Tilt D | October 27, 2015 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[106] | Lean D | October 29, 2015 |
DKE[107] | Tossup | October 29, 2015 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Matt Bevin (R) |
Drew Curtis (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vox Populi | October 26–27, 2015 | 618 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 44% | 6% | 6% |
43% | 46% | 6% | 7% | ||||
Survey USA | October 23–26, 2015 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 6% | 10% |
WKU Social Science Research Center | October 19–25, 2015 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
Mason-Dixon | October 6–8, 2015 | 625 | ± 4% | 43% | 41% | 6% | 10% |
Survey USA | September 22–27, 2015 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 15% |
Survey USA | July 22–28, 2015 | 685 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% |
45% | 42% | — | 13% | ||||
Public Policy Polling | June 18–21, 2015 | 1,108 | ± 2.9% | 35% | 38% | 6% | 21% |
38% | 40% | — | 22% | ||||
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 37% | — | 16% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 36% | — | 22% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 45% | 41% | — | 14% |
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 44% | 36% | — | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 36% | — | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Cathy Bailey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 43% | 30% | — | 27% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
James Comer (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 45% | 39% | — | 16% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 40% | 38% | — | 22% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 41% | 45% | — | 14% |
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 40% | 37% | — | 23% |
Garin-Hart-Yang* | December 19–21, 2014 | 608 | ± 4% | 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 35% | — | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Hal Heiner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 42% | 44% | — | 14% |
Gravis Marketing | January 5–6, 2015 | 608 | ± 4% | 43% | 34% | — | 22% |
Garin-Hart-Yang* | December 19–21, 2014 | 608 | ± 4% | 51% | 30% | — | 19% |
Public Policy Polling | August 7–10, 2014 | 991 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 32% | — | 28% |
Gravis Marketing | July 17–20, 2014 | 1,054 | ± 3% | 45% | 36% | — | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jack Conway (D) |
Will T. Scott (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Survey USA | May 5–10, 2015 | 1,677 | ± 2.4% | 48% | 32% | — | 20% |
Survey USA | March 3–8, 2015 | 1,917 | ± 2.3% | 43% | 33% | — | 24% |
Harper Polling | January 28–29, 2015 | 640 | ± 3.87% | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Bevin | 511,374 | 52.52% | +17.23% | |
Democratic | Jack Conway | 426,620 | 43.82% | −11.90% | |
Independent | Drew Curtis | 35,597 | 3.66% | N/A | |
Total votes | 973,692 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
County[111] | Matt Bevin (R) | Jack Conway (D) | Other | Total votes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | % | # | % | # | ||
Adair | 66.33% | 2,727 | 30.84% | 1,268 | 2.82% | 116 | 4,111 |
Allen | 69.00% | 2,344 | 28.76% | 977 | 2.24% | 76 | 3,397 |
Anderson | 55.34% | 3,724 | 39.16% | 2,635 | 5.50% | 370 | 6,729 |
Ballard | 55.20% | 1,312 | 41.65% | 990 | 3.16% | 75 | 2,377 |
Barren | 57.40% | 5,289 | 38.72% | 3,568 | 3.88% | 358 | 9,215 |
Bath | 46.65% | 1,045 | 49.87% | 1,117 | 3.48% | 78 | 2,240 |
Bell | 58.60% | 2,425 | 37.60% | 1,556 | 3.79% | 157 | 4,138 |
Boone | 65.78% | 15,842 | 30.80% | 7,418 | 3.41% | 822 | 24,082 |
Bourbon | 45.34% | 2,202 | 51.68% | 2,510 | 2.99% | 145 | 4,857 |
Boyd | 51.70% | 4,747 | 45.24% | 4,154 | 3.06% | 281 | 9,182 |
Boyle | 54.72% | 3,968 | 40.65% | 2,948 | 4.63% | 336 | 7,252 |
Bracken | 53.78% | 854 | 42.82% | 680 | 3.40% | 54 | 1,588 |
Breathitt | 49.81% | 1,313 | 45.83% | 1,208 | 4.36% | 115 | 2,636 |
Breckinridge | 56.78% | 2,648 | 39.84% | 1,858 | 3.39% | 158 | 4,664 |
Bullitt | 57.86% | 9,856 | 38.11% | 6,492 | 4.03% | 686 | 17,034 |
Butler | 67.24% | 1,786 | 30.38% | 807 | 2.37% | 63 | 2,656 |
Caldwell | 58.97% | 1,838 | 37.86% | 1,180 | 3.18% | 99 | 3,117 |
Calloway | 55.44% | 4,742 | 41.59% | 3,558 | 2.97% | 254 | 8,554 |
Campbell | 54.15% | 10,671 | 41.90% | 8,258 | 3.95% | 779 | 19,708 |
Carlisle | 60.66% | 899 | 37.85% | 561 | 1.48% | 22 | 1,482 |
Carroll | 46.61% | 867 | 49.62% | 923 | 3.76% | 70 | 1,860 |
Carter | 53.62% | 2,405 | 43.57% | 1,954 | 2.81% | 126 | 4,485 |
Casey | 79.31% | 2,836 | 18.15% | 649 | 2.54% | 91 | 3,576 |
Christian | 56.91% | 4,830 | 40.60% | 3,446 | 2.49% | 211 | 8,487 |
Clark | 54.55% | 4,551 | 41.33% | 3,448 | 4.12% | 344 | 8,343 |
Clay | 71.11% | 2,311 | 26.65% | 866 | 2.25% | 73 | 3,250 |
Clinton | 76.36% | 1,531 | 22.14% | 444 | 1.50% | 30 | 2,005 |
Crittenden | 65.52% | 1,450 | 31.86% | 705 | 2.62% | 58 | 2,213 |
Cumberland | 70.93% | 927 | 26.17% | 342 | 2.91% | 38 | 1,307 |
Daviess | 55.12% | 13,483 | 42.38% | 10,366 | 2.50% | 611 | 24,460 |
Edmonson | 63.02% | 1,503 | 33.75% | 805 | 3.23% | 77 | 2,385 |
Elliott | 40.21% | 495 | 57.35% | 706 | 2.44% | 30 | 1,231 |
Estill | 63.08% | 1,770 | 31.72% | 890 | 5.20% | 146 | 2,806 |
Fayette | 39.72% | 27,788 | 54.64% | 38,220 | 5.64% | 3,945 | 69,953 |
Fleming | 57.65% | 1,907 | 38.81% | 1,284 | 3.54% | 117 | 3,308 |
Floyd | 42.04% | 3,390 | 54.46% | 4,392 | 3.50% | 282 | 8,064 |
Franklin | 35.20% | 5,942 | 58.29% | 9,839 | 6.51% | 1,098 | 16,879 |
Fulton | 51.45% | 568 | 45.65% | 504 | 2.90% | 32 | 1,104 |
Gallatin | 56.16% | 739 | 39.89% | 525 | 3.95% | 52 | 1,316 |
Garrard | 65.67% | 2,542 | 29.91% | 1,158 | 4.42% | 171 | 3,871 |
Grant | 62.51% | 2,433 | 34.07% | 1,326 | 3.42% | 133 | 3,892 |
Graves | 60.84% | 5,370 | 36.13% | 3,189 | 3.04% | 268 | 8,827 |
Grayson | 62.86% | 3,246 | 33.54% | 1,732 | 3.60% | 186 | 5,164 |
Green | 69.66% | 2,018 | 27.82% | 806 | 2.52% | 73 | 2,897 |
Greenup | 57.12% | 4,432 | 40.07% | 3,109 | 2.81% | 218 | 7,759 |
Hancock | 49.93% | 1,114 | 47.69% | 1,064 | 2.38% | 53 | 2,231 |
Hardin | 56.71% | 11,586 | 39.30% | 8,029 | 3.99% | 815 | 20,430 |
Harlan | 62.34% | 3,099 | 33.61% | 1,671 | 4.04% | 201 | 4,971 |
Harrison | 51.15% | 2,093 | 43.45% | 1,778 | 5.40% | 221 | 4,092 |
Hart | 57.48% | 2,043 | 38.80% | 1,379 | 3.71% | 132 | 3,554 |
Henderson | 47.19% | 4,837 | 49.92% | 5,117 | 2.90% | 297 | 10,251 |
Henry | 52.75% | 2,126 | 42.68% | 1,720 | 4.57% | 184 | 4,030 |
Hickman | 61.43% | 771 | 36.49% | 458 | 2.07% | 26 | 1,255 |
Hopkins | 60.48% | 5,802 | 36.73% | 3,524 | 2.79% | 268 | 9,594 |
Jackson | 83.36% | 2,310 | 14.18% | 393 | 2.45% | 68 | 2,771 |
Jefferson | 38.57% | 74,427 | 58.16% | 112,232 | 3.27% | 6,302 | 192,961 |
Jessamine | 61.93% | 7,581 | 33.77% | 4,134 | 4.30% | 526 | 12,241 |
Johnson | 65.39% | 3,040 | 30.80% | 1,432 | 3.81% | 177 | 4,649 |
Kenton | 57.25% | 18,007 | 39.11% | 12,301 | 3.64% | 1,145 | 31,453 |
Knott | 55.88% | 1,612 | 39.55% | 1,141 | 4.58% | 132 | 2,885 |
Knox | 67.35% | 3,706 | 29.69% | 1,634 | 2.96% | 163 | 5,503 |
Larue | 59.79% | 2,009 | 36.13% | 1,214 | 4.08% | 137 | 3,360 |
Laurel | 74.48% | 8,781 | 22.59% | 2,663 | 2.93% | 345 | 11,789 |
Lawrence | 60.87% | 1,616 | 36.65% | 973 | 2.49% | 66 | 2,655 |
Lee | 67.84% | 1,042 | 27.47% | 422 | 4.69% | 72 | 1,536 |
Leslie | 77.43% | 1,654 | 20.18% | 431 | 2.39% | 51 | 2,136 |
Letcher | 54.65% | 2,360 | 41.11% | 1,775 | 4.24% | 183 | 4,318 |
Lewis | 73.56% | 1,833 | 23.43% | 584 | 3.01% | 75 | 2,492 |
Lincoln | 64.36% | 3,289 | 31.82% | 1,626 | 3.82% | 195 | 5,110 |
Livingston | 57.49% | 1,340 | 39.77% | 927 | 2.75% | 64 | 2,331 |
Logan | 58.49% | 2,345 | 39.04% | 1,565 | 2.47% | 99 | 4,009 |
Lyon | 52.32% | 1,208 | 45.17% | 1,043 | 2.51% | 58 | 2,309 |
Madison | 55.87% | 10,268 | 39.98% | 7,348 | 4.16% | 764 | 18,380 |
Magoffin | 53.86% | 1,229 | 43.25% | 987 | 2.89% | 66 | 2,282 |
Marion | 41.20% | 1,591 | 55.20% | 2,132 | 3.60% | 139 | 3,862 |
Marshall | 53.26% | 5,969 | 43.09% | 4,830 | 3.65% | 409 | 11,208 |
Martin | 73.25% | 1,268 | 24.21% | 419 | 2.54% | 44 | 1,731 |
Mason | 52.43% | 1,792 | 44.79% | 1,531 | 2.78% | 95 | 3,418 |
McCracken | 58.42% | 9,028 | 39.03% | 6,031 | 2.55% | 394 | 15,453 |
McCreary | 65.42% | 1,362 | 31.12% | 648 | 3.46% | 72 | 2,082 |
McLean | 56.57% | 1,364 | 40.81% | 984 | 2.61% | 63 | 2,411 |
Meade | 51.37% | 3,310 | 44.04% | 2,838 | 4.59% | 296 | 6,444 |
Menifee | 53.60% | 1,160 | 41.45% | 897 | 4.94% | 107 | 2,164 |
Mercer | 60.22% | 3,517 | 35.17% | 2,054 | 4.61% | 269 | 5,840 |
Metcalfe | 57.76% | 1,344 | 38.16% | 888 | 4.08% | 95 | 2,327 |
Monroe | 67.32% | 1,642 | 29.56% | 721 | 3.12% | 76 | 2,439 |
Montgomery | 54.61% | 3,271 | 41.39% | 2,479 | 4.01% | 240 | 5,990 |
Morgan | 54.93% | 1,355 | 40.90% | 1,009 | 4.18% | 103 | 2,467 |
Muhlenberg | 49.30% | 3,613 | 47.12% | 3,453 | 3.58% | 262 | 7,328 |
Nelson | 48.35% | 4,902 | 48.14% | 4,880 | 3.51% | 356 | 10,138 |
Nicholas | 38.20% | 563 | 58.14% | 857 | 3.66% | 54 | 1,474 |
Ohio | 59.41% | 3,115 | 38.15% | 2,000 | 2.44% | 128 | 5,243 |
Oldham | 60.54% | 10,896 | 35.58% | 6,403 | 3.88% | 699 | 17,998 |
Owen | 56.10% | 1,444 | 38.85% | 1,000 | 5.05% | 130 | 2,574 |
Owsley | 70.47% | 580 | 26.73% | 220 | 2.79% | 23 | 823 |
Pendleton | 59.92% | 1,567 | 35.79% | 936 | 4.28% | 112 | 2,615 |
Perry | 62.00% | 3,276 | 35.14% | 1,857 | 2.86% | 151 | 5,284 |
Pike | 54.76% | 6,146 | 42.24% | 4,741 | 2.99% | 336 | 11,223 |
Powell | 52.48% | 1,335 | 43.63% | 1,110 | 3.89% | 99 | 2,544 |
Pulaski | 72.00% | 10,623 | 24.83% | 3,664 | 3.17% | 467 | 14,754 |
Robertson | 53.12% | 247 | 43.44% | 202 | 3.44% | 16 | 465 |
Rockcastle | 74.33% | 2,536 | 21.81% | 744 | 3.87% | 132 | 3,412 |
Rowan | 46.67% | 2,179 | 49.71% | 2,321 | 3.62% | 169 | 4,669 |
Russell | 72.08% | 3,312 | 24.90% | 1,144 | 3.03% | 139 | 4,595 |
Scott | 51.32% | 6,165 | 43.55% | 5,232 | 5.14% | 617 | 12,014 |
Shelby | 56.74% | 6,573 | 39.49% | 4,575 | 3.76% | 436 | 11,584 |
Simpson | 59.57% | 1,652 | 38.19% | 1,059 | 2.24% | 62 | 2,773 |
Spencer | 62.84% | 3,169 | 33.81% | 1,705 | 3.35% | 169 | 5,043 |
Taylor | 61.28% | 3,852 | 35.95% | 2,260 | 2.77% | 174 | 6,286 |
Todd | 62.23% | 903 | 34.67% | 503 | 3.10% | 45 | 1,451 |
Trigg | 55.01% | 1,746 | 42.28% | 1,342 | 2.71% | 86 | 3,174 |
Trimble | 54.51% | 1,033 | 42.06% | 797 | 3.43% | 65 | 1,895 |
Union | 47.53% | 1,829 | 50.10% | 1,928 | 2.36% | 91 | 3,848 |
Warren | 55.17% | 12,411 | 41.58% | 9,354 | 3.25% | 730 | 22,495 |
Washington | 57.38% | 1,796 | 38.50% | 1,205 | 4.12% | 129 | 3,130 |
Wayne | 64.54% | 2,412 | 33.15% | 1,239 | 2.30% | 86 | 3,737 |
Webster | 55.82% | 1,567 | 41.61% | 1,168 | 2.57% | 72 | 2,807 |
Whitley | 69.73% | 4,772 | 27.13% | 1,857 | 3.14% | 215 | 6,844 |
Wolfe | 46.15% | 689 | 51.11% | 763 | 2.75% | 41 | 1,493 |
Woodford | 47.53% | 3,804 | 46.28% | 3,704 | 6.19% | 495 | 8,003 |
Bevin won 4 of 6 congressional districts. Conway won the other two, including one held by a Republican.[111]
District | Bevin | Conway | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 58.01% | 39.15% | Ed Whitfield |
2nd | 56.96% | 39.45% | Brett Guthrie |
3rd | 37.63% | 59.14% | John Yarmuth |
4th | 58.49% | 37.83% | Thomas Massie |
5th | 62.74% | 33.99% | Hal Rogers |
6th | 46.21% | 48.65% | Andy Barr |
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