2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2012 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2024^[update], this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri to date. This is also the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2012.

2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

← 2008 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2016 →

Nominee Jay Nixon Dave Spence Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,494,056 1,160,265 Percentage 54.77% 42.53%

County results Congressional district results Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90% Spence:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election Jay Nixon Democratic Elected Governor Jay Nixon Democratic

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jay Nixon, incumbent governor^[1]

Eliminated in primary

• William Campbell^[2]
• Clay Thunderhawk^[2]

Results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon (incumbent)	269,865	86.0%
	Democratic	William Campbell	25,721	8.2%
	Democratic	Clay Thunderhawk	18,228	5.8%
Total votes			313,814	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Dave Spence, businessman^[2]

Eliminated in primary

• Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer^[3]
• Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist^[2]
• John Weiler^[2]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Randles	Fred Sauer	Dave Spence	John Weiler	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[4]	August 4–5, 2012	590	± 4.0%	15%	12%	42%	3%	29%
Mason-Dixon[5]	July 23–25, 2012	400	± 5.0%	15%	1%	41%	3%	40%
Public Policy Polling[6]	May 24–27, 2012	430	± 4.7%	11%	4%	32%	1%	43%
Public Policy Polling[7]	January 27–29, 2012	574	± 4.1%	15%	—	11%	—	74%

Results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dave Spence	333,578	59.9%
	Republican	Bill Randles	90,651	16.3%
	Republican	Fred Sauer	83,695	15.0%
	Republican	John Weiler	49,006	8.8%
Total votes			556,930	100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

• Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri^[2]

Denied ballot access

• Leonard Steinman^[2]

Results

Libertarian primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jim Higgins	2,500	100.0%
Total votes			2,500	100.0%

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[8]	Lean D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]	Likely D	November 5, 2012
Inside Elections[10]	Likely D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[11]	Lean D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Dave Spence (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[12]	November 2–3, 2012	835	± 3.4%	53%	45%	—	2%
SurveyUSA[13]	October 28–November 3, 2012	589	± 4.1%	48%	39%	5%	8%
Mason-Dixon[14]	October 23–25, 2012	625	± 4%	48%	42%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling[15]	October 19–21, 2012	582	± 4.1%	51%	40%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling[16]	October 1–3, 2012	700	± 3.7%	54%	35%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling[17]	August 20, 2012	500	± 4.4%	46%	37%	—	16%
Survey USA[18]	August 9–12, 2012	585	± 4.1%	51%	37%	5%	6%
Chilenski Strategies[19]	August 8, 2012	663	± 3.8%	53%	39%	—	9%
Mason-Dixon[5]	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	48%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling[6]	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	45%	34%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling[20]	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	27%	—	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Peter Kinder	Bill Randles	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	34%	14%	53%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Peter Kinder	Someone else	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]	September 9–12, 2011	400	± 4.9%	22%	35%	43%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Bill Randles (R)	Other	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[5]	July 23–25, 2012	625	± 4.0%	50%	35%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling[6]	May 24–27, 2012	602	± 4.0%	46%	32%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling[20]	January 27–29, 2012	582	± 4.1%	47%	29%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling[22]	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	45%	24%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Matt Blunt (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22]	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	37%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling[23]	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	38%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	John Danforth (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22]	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	39%	45%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Kenny Hulshof (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[23]	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	51%	34%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Peter Kinder (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22]	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	50%	31%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling[23]	April 28-May 1, 2011	555	± 3.9%	48%	34%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling[24]	March 3–6, 2011	612	± 4.0%	45%	38%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling[25]	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	47%	39%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Sarah Steelman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[25]	Nov. 29-December 1, 2010	515	± 4.3%	46%	35%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Nixon (D)	Jim Talent (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[22]	September 9–12, 2011	632	± 3.9%	47%	38%	—	14%

Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

General election

Results

Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012^[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon (incumbent)	1,494,056	54.77%	−3.63%
	Republican	Dave Spence	1,160,265	42.53%	+3.04%
	Libertarian	Jim Higgins	73,509	2.70%	+1.59%
	Write-in		53	0.00%	0.00%
Total votes			2,727,883	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
• Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
• Knox (Largest city: Edina)
• Lewis (Largest city: Canton)
• Mississippi (Largest city: Charleston)
• Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Andrew (Largest city: Savannah)
• Atchison (Largest city: Tarkio)
• Benton (Largest city: Warsaw)
• Caldwell (Largest city: Hamilton)
• Camden (Largest city: Osage Beach)
• Carter (Largest city: Van Buren)
• Cass (Largest city: Harrisonville)
• Cedar (Largest city: El Dorado Springs)
• Crawford (Largest city: Cuba)
• Dallas (Largest city: Buffalo)
• Daviess (Largest city: Gallatin)
• Dent (Largest city: Salem)
• Douglas (Largest city: Ava)
• Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
• Howell (Largest city: West Plains)
• Laclede (Largest city: Lebanon)
• Lincoln (Largest city: Troy)
• Livingston (Largest city: Chillicothe)
• Maries (Largest city: Belle)
• Morgan (Largest city: Versailles)
• Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
• Ozark (Largest city: Gainesville)
• Phelps (Largest city: Rolla)
• Polk (Largest city: Bolivar)
• Pulaski (Largest city: Fort Leonard Wood)
• Ripley (Largest city: Doniphan)
• St. Clair (Largest city: Appleton City)
• Texas (Largest city: Licking)
• Vernon (Largest city: Nevada)
• Webster (Largest city: Marshfield)

By congressional district

Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.^[27]

District	Nixon	Spence	Representative
1st	81.38%	13.21%	Lacy Clay
2nd	50.67%	47.37%	Todd Akin (112th Congress)
			Ann Wagner (113th Congress)
3rd	48.20%	49.08%	Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)
			Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)
4th	49.16%	47.46%	Vicky Hartzler
5th	66.00%	31.20%	Emanuel Cleaver
6th	50.09%	46.96%	Sam Graves
7th	43.75%	53.39%	Billy Long
8th	48.27%	49.06%	Jo Ann Emerson

See also

• 2012 United States gubernatorial elections
• 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri
• 2012 United States presidential election in Missouri
• 2012 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election
• 2012 Missouri Attorney General election
• 2012 Missouri State Treasurer election
• 2012 Missouri Secretary of State election
• Political party strength in Missouri

References

1. "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
2. Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe. Retrieved May 25, 2012.
3. "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
4. Public Policy Polling
5. Mason-Dixon
6. Public Policy Polling
7. Public Policy Polling
8. "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
9. "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
10. "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
11. "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
12. Public Policy Polling
13. SurveyUSA
14. Mason-Dixon
15. Public Policy Polling
16. Public Policy Polling
17. Public Policy Polling
18. Survey USA
19. Chilenski Strategies
20. Public Policy Polling
21. Public Policy Polling
22. Public Policy Polling
23. Public Policy Polling
24. Public Policy Polling
25. Public Policy Polling
26. "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
27. "Daily Kos".

External links

• Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State

Campaign sites (Archived)

• Jay Nixon for Governor
• Dave Spence for Governor
• Jim Higgins for Governor