2012 Belizean general election

General elections were held in Belize on 7 March 2012^[1] to elect all 31 members of the Belize House of Representatives as well as offices in the various local governments. The election was run by the Elections and Boundaries Commission's Elections and Boundaries Department. Dean Barrow and his United Democratic Party (UDP) were re-elected, but lost eight seats to the opposition People's United Party (PUP) to maintain a slim 17-14 majority in the Belize House.^[2][3] The upper house of the Belize National Assembly, the Senate, was appointed after the election by the UDP-led government in accordance with the Constitution of Belize.

2012 Belizean general election

← 2008 7 March 2012 2015 →
All 31 seats in the House of Representatives 16 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	73.18%
First party Second party   Leader Dean Barrow Francis Fonseca Party UDP PUP Last election 25 seats 6 seats Seats won 17 14 Seat change 8 8 Popular vote 64,976 61,832 Percentage 50.43% 47.99%
Results by constituency
Prime Minister before election Dean Barrow UDP Subsequent Prime Minister Dean Barrow UDP

Contesting parties

Prime Minister Dean Barrow's United Democratic Party (UDP) was the incumbent in the election with his party holding 25 seats at dissolution. The opposition People's United Party (PUP), led by Francis Fonseca since late 2011, held the other seats in the Belize House. An unrepresented coalition of smaller parties ran in nine of the 31 constituencies under the banner of the Belize Unity Alliance.^[4]

Campaign

The UDP's primary campaign promise was to renegotiate the terms of a US$550 million bond repayment, which Barrow said would be his first task if re-elected. The bond accounted for 40% of Belize's economic output and half of the national debt, making Belize the 13th most indebted state in the world in 2012. The interest on the debt was scheduled to cost US$46 million in the year, which was 12% of the country's revenues at the time affected its ability to raise future funds after credit rating agencies downgraded the sovereign credit status to "junk." Conversely, Fonseca said that he would abide by the obligation to pay off the debt with promises to grow the country's current US$1.25 billion economy.

Another campaign theme was the issue of oil drilling off the coast of the country within proximity of the Belize Barrier Reef after Belize started exporting oil in 2006. However, opinion polls showed opposition to further oil exploration. Barrow promised to hold a referendum on the issue, while Fonseca pledged a moratorium over continued exploration.

The Belize Unity Alliance actively campaigned in such locales as San Pedro, the biggest town on Ambergris Caye, off the Belize coast, supporting independent candidates and calling for votes for the party.^[4] However, the coalition failed to make significant inroads and was not competitive in any of the 31 Belize House constituencies under the country's first past the post electoral system.

Unofficial referendum

On 29 February, Oceana, a member of the Belize Coalition to Save Our National Heritage, held an informal referendum that they called the "People's Referendum". The "referendum" consisted of 51 polling stations, including two mobile polling stations, staffed by volunteers over the issue of oil drilling. A previous attempt to hold the referendum alongside the election was rejected after 40% of the petitioned signatures were disqualified due to double signatories and mismatched names with the official voter rolls.^{[citation needed]} The voter turnout was 28,000. The group's vice president, Audrey Matura-Shepherd, said that the referendum sought to use "the law to force the government to hear the people."

Opinion polls

Opinion polls suggested a tight race with many undecided voters.^[4][5]

A poll conducted on 17 February 2012, the day of nominations for running in the election by former politician Derek Aikman, showed that the UDP held a majority of 16 seats and the PUP leading in nine seats, including Orange Walk Central, which they had won in the last poll; Fort George, Pickstock, Belize Rural South, Corozal Southeast, Corozal Bay, Cayo North, Cayo West, and Orange Walk North. The UDP led in Queen's Square, Port Loyola, Caribbean Shores, Mesopotamia, Collet, Lake Independence, Corozal North, Belmopan, Cayo Northeast, Cayo Central, and Orange Walk South. The other seats that could play the role of kingmaker included Albert, Freetown, Belize Rural North and Central, Dangriga and Stann Creek West, Toledo East and West, Corozal Southwest, Cayo South and Orange Walk East.

Another poll by Aikman on 2 March showed a large lead for the UDP, though many voters were willing to support PUP. The poll was of 8,847 voters, or 4.97%. The UDP's 15% lead in the nomination day poll fell to a 4% gap with a lead of 30% to 26% on 2 March. The BUA also recorded 1% support in the Belize Rural South and Belmopan. Undecided voters were at 43%.^[5]

Conduct

An Organization of American States (OAS) monitoring group observed the poll. The team was led by the former US Ambassador to Honduras Frank Almaguer; the team also comprised observers from Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Barbados, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Martinique, Mexico, the United States and Venezuela. The Organization of American States Electoral Observation Mission (OAS/EOM) was present in all six districts.^[5] Afterwards the election was praised by the OAS as an "exemplary practice for the region."^[6]

Results

The total number of eligible voters was 178,054, out of a population of just over 300,000. There were 74 total candidates and 320 polling stations. For the simultaneous local elections, 97,979 of the voters had the choice to choose from 170 candidates at 168 of the polling stations.^[5]

The UDP did well in Belize City, holding all of their constituencies there as well as picking up Lake Independence and Albert. However the PUP made significant gains in the rural constituencies, especially in the south where they swept the constituencies in the Stann Creek and Toledo Districts.^[7]

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	United Democratic Party	64,976	50.43	17	–8
	People's United Party	61,832	47.99	14	+8
	People's National Party	828	0.64	0	0
	Vision Inspired by the People	382	0.30	0	0
	Independents	822	0.64	0	0
Total		128,840	100.00	31	0
Valid votes		128,840	98.88
Invalid/blank votes		1,463	1.12
Total votes		130,303	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		178,054	73.18
Source: Election Passport

By constituency

Electoral Divisions	Number of Registered Voters	Total Votes Cast	Percentage of Voter Turnout	Candidates	Political Party	Number of Votes	Percentage of Votes By Party
Caribbean Shores	5117	3363	65.72%	Santino "Santi" Castillo	UDP	2001	59.50%
				David Hoy	PUP	1325	39.40%
				rejected		37	1.10%
Freetown	4230	2999	70.90%	Lee Mark Chang	UDP	1408	46.95%
				Francis W. Fonseca	PUP	1558	51.95%
				rejected		33	1.10%
Pickstock	3243	1994	61.49%	Wilfred "Sedi" Elrington	UDP	1038	52.06%
				Francis Donald Smith	PUP	956	47.94%
				rejected		37	1.86%
Fort George	3133	1941	61.95%	George Gough	UDP	715	36.84%
				Said Musa	PUP	1202	61.93%
				rejected		24	1.24%
Lake Independence	5145	3139	61%	Carlos A. Diaz	IND	223	7.10%
				Martin Galvez	PUP	1372	43.71%
				Mark Anthony King	UDP	1544	49.19%
				rejected			0.00%
Albert	3180	1886	59.31%	David Craig	PUP	807	42.79%
				Herman R. Longsworth	UDP	1034	54.83%
				rejected		45	2.39%
Collet	4627	3046	65.83%	Patrick Jason Faber	UDP	1949	63.99%
				Carolyn Trench-Sandiford	PUP	1060	34.80%
				rejected		37	1.21%
Mesopotamia	3710	2256	60.81%	Michael Finnegan	UDP	1841	81.60%
				Philip Palacio	PUP	380	16.84%
				rejected		35	1.55%
Queen's Square	3960	2577	65.08%	Dean Oliver Barrow	UDP	2039	79.12%
				Anthony Glenford Sylvestre, Jr.	PUP	490	19.01%
				rejected		48	1.86%
Port Loyola	4469	2830	63.33%	Anthony "Boots" Martinez	UDP	1789	63.22%
				Gilroy Usher, Sr.	PUP	990	34.98%
				rejected		51	1.80%
Belize Rural North	5404	3770	69.76%	Edmond Castro	UDP	2103	55.78%
				Arthur Saldivar	PUP	1568	41.59%
				Rufus X	PNP	49	1.30%
				rejected		10	0.27%
Belize Rural South	7100	4861	68.46%	Patty Arceo	PUP	2026	41.68%
				William "Mike" Campbell	IND	24	0.49%
				Jose Manuel "Junior" Heredia	UDP	2479	51.00%
				"Bobby" Robert Lopez	VIP	332	6.83%
				rejected		126	2.59%
Belize Rural Central	5920	3917	66.17%	Dolores Balderamos Garcia	PUP	2005	51.19%
				Fred Hunter Sr.	PNP	74	1.89%
				Michael "Hutchy" Hutchinson	UDP	1801	45.98%
					rejected	37	0.94%
Orange Walk North	7061	5822	82.45%	Jorge Alberto "George" Briceno	PUP	2357	40.48%
				Gaspar "Gapi" Vega	UDP	3405	58.49%
				rejected		60	1.03%
Orange Walk Central	6694	5198	77.65%	Juan Antonio "Johnny" Briceño	PUP	3042	58.52%
				Denny Grijalva	UDP	2156	41.48%
				rejected			0.00%
Orange Walk East	6917	5257	76.00%	Orlando Alexander Burns	UDP	2496	47.48%
				Dr. Marco Tulio Mendez	PUP	2761	52.52%
				rejected		42	0.80%
Orange Walk South	6837	5621	82.21%	Jose Abelardo Mai	PUP	2968	52.80%
				Rosendo "Chendo" Urbina	UDP	2605	46.34%
				rejected		48	0.85%
Cayo North	6213	4641	74.70%	Marcel Bedran	IND	191	4.12%
				Salvador Fernandez	UDP	1985	42.77%
				Joseph Mahmud	PUP	2382	51.33%
				rejected		83	1.79%
Cayo South	6905	4677	67.73%	Julius Espat	PUP	2568	54.91%
				Ramon Francisco Witz	UDP	2109	45.09%
				rejected			0.00%
Cayo West	6351	4898	77.12%	Erwin Rafael Contreras	UDP	3079	62.86%
				Oscar Sabido	PUP	1745	35.63%
				rejected		74	1.51%
Cayo Central	7180	5900	82.17%	Collet Emmanuel Montejo	PUP	2478	42.00%
				Rene Montero	UDP	2522	42.75%
				rejected		72	1.22%
Cayo North East	5548	4122	74.30%	Orlando "Landy" Habet	PUP	2034	49.34%
				Elvin Penner	UDP	2051	49.76%
				rejected		37	0.90%
Belmopan	7780	5603	72.02%	Amin Hegar	PUP	2557	45.64%
				John B. Saldivar	UDP	2775	49.53%
				Richard Smith	PNP	230	4.10%
				rejected		41	0.73%
Corozal North	6233	5152	82.66%	Valdemar Isidro Castillo	PUP	2464	47.83%
				Hugo Amilcar Patt	UDP	2673	51.88%
				rejected		15	0.29%
Corozal South West	5745	4674	81.36%	Angel Roberto Campos	IND	384	8.22%
				Gabriel Alberto Martinez	UDP	2120	45.36%
				Ramiro Ramirez	PUP	2153	46.06%
				rejected		17	0.36%
Corozal Bay	6237	4652	74.59%	Gregorio "Papas" Garcia	PUP	2192	47.12%
				Pablo Marin	UDP	2340	50.30%
				Carlos Javier Sawers	VIP	50	1.07%
				rejected		70	1.50%
Corozal South East	6549	5609	85.65%	Florencio Julian Marin, Jr.	PUP	2999	53.47%
				Raul Fabian Rosado	UDP	2587	46.12%
				rejected		23	0.41%
Dangriga	5904	3827	64.82%	Mateo Tomas Polanco	PNP	37	0.97%
				Ivan Michael Ramos	PUP	2036	53.20%
				Arthur William "Turo" Roches	UDP	1699	44.40%
				rejected		56	1.46%
Stann Creek West	7888	6123	77.62%	Rodwell Ferguson	PUP	3272	53.44%
				Melvin Hulse	UDP	2698	44.06%
				Charles Berisford Leslie Jr.	PNP	127	2.07%
				rejected		26	0.42%
Toledo West	6134	5068	82.62%	Martin Ack	PNP	29	0.57%
				Juan Coy	UDP	1858	36.66%
				Oscar Requena	PUP	3165	62.45%
				rejected		16	0.32%
Toledo East	6640	4835	72.82%	Michael Joseph Espat	PUP	2417	49.99%
				William Wil Maheia	PNP	282	5.83%
				Peter Eden Martinez	UDP	2077	42.96%
				rejected		59	1.22%

Source: Elections and Boundaries Department^[8]

Reactions

Domestic

Dean Barrow reacted to the victory by assuring the public that he would quickly appoint a delegation to renegotiate the terms of the so-called superbond with foreign financiers. Analysts at JP Morgan and Nomura Securities have estimated the government's chances of obtaining more favourable repayment terms after the positive completion of the electoral process. According to Nomura Securities analyst Boris Segura, the bond's interest could be reduced to 5% and the maturity extended to 2042.^[2] He also announced that he would approach Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez to supply Belize with low-cost petroleum products. He cited this as in accordance with his self-declared pro-poor agenda and efforts to lower living costs.^[9]

PUP's Francis Fonseca had not conceded defeat the following day after the release of the official result. PUP claimed there were irregularities and filed a complaint against the result in three constituencies.^[9]

International

The OAS/EOM noted several issues during the campaign and voting process, such as the deployment of public resources, including government vehicles and drivers, for the use of the ruling party. They also claimed to have seen cases of vote buying.^[9] Though they praised the peaceful election procedure, the professionalism of the polling officials and the adequate representation of women in the process.^[10] Faced with the poll-watchers' report, Barrow recognised that though the election had not been perfect, but insisted that in an overall view it could be considered free and fair.^[9]

References

1. Aaron Humes, "Barrow rolls the dice March 7!", Amandala Online, 2 February 2012.
2. Hughes, Krista (8 March 2012), Belize steps closer to bond talks with ruling party win, Reuters, archived from the original on 14 July 2014
3. Britell, Alexander (8 March 2012), "Belize's UDP Wins Narrow Re-election; Opposition Gains Eight Seats", Caribbean Journal
4. Hughes, Krista (7 March 2012), Belize votes with financial future at stake, Reuters
5. Belize elections underway, Caribbean 360, 7 March 2012
6. "Preliminary Statement by the OAS Electoral Observation Mission to Belize" Organization of American States, 8 March 2012. (accessed 23 October 2014)
7. Belize election maps, Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive. (accessed 20 November 2014)
8. General Elections 2012 Archived 4 April 2012 at the Wayback Machine, Elections and Boundaries Department, 7 March 2012.
9. "Reelected Belize Prime Minister Will Turn To Chavez For Fuel", Belizean, 8 March 2012, archived from the original on 18 January 2013
10. "Belize elections receive OAS nod of approval", Caribbean 360, 9 March 2012