葡萄牙在2011年6月5日举行大选，选出全共和国议会230席议员。[5] 佩德罗·帕索斯·科埃略（Pedro Passos Coelho）领导的中间偏右社会民主党 击败时任总理若瑟·苏格拉底领导的社会党。[6] 在投票率创下历史新低的情况下，中间偏右政党囊括近130席席次，达总席次的56%，得票率仅达50%。而人民党持续2009年以来的态势，创下1983年以来的最佳成绩，而社民党超越民调结果，赢得与2002年若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐相同的席次。在全国二十个选区中，佩德罗·帕索斯·科埃略拿下里斯本、波尔图、法鲁、亚速群岛等十七个选区。
社会党在本次选举遭受严重挫败，不仅失去11个选区，且是1991年以来首度得票率低于30%。苏格拉底因而在选举日当晚宣布辞去总书记。社会党也失去他所在的布朗库堡选区。极左派政党左翼集团大败，失去半数议会席次。整体而言，葡萄牙左派支持率落后右派政党十个百分点，是1991年代社民党阿尼巴尔·卡瓦科·席尔瓦拿下绝对多数以来的最大差距。右派政党社民党及人民党取得过半席次，可以组建联合政府。连同席尔瓦总统，自1974年康乃馨革命以来，37年来总统和总理同属右翼。
投票率是葡萄牙史上新低纪录，仅仅只有58%。
背景
政党
议题
国外影响
民调
| 日期 | 民调机构 | 社会党 | 社会民主党 | 人民党 | 左翼集团 | 联合民主联盟 | 其他/未决定 | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/5 | 选举结果 | 28.1% 74席 |
38.7% 108席 |
11.7% 24席 |
5.2% 8席 |
7.9% 16席 |
8.5% 0席 |
10.7% |
| 6/5 | Exit Poll - RTP1 Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） |
26.0% – 30.0% 67 – 77席 |
37.0% – 42.0% 104 – 114席 |
11.0% – 14.0% 22 – 28席 |
5.0% – 7.0% 8 – 11席 |
7.0% – 9.0% 14 – 18席 |
5.0% – 8.0% 0 – 1席 |
11.0% 12.0% |
| 6/5 | Exit Poll - SIC Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） |
25.5% – 29.7% 69 – 77席 |
38.3% – 42.5% 102 – 109席 |
11.1% – 13.9% 22 – 25席 |
4.5% – 6.7% 7 – 10席 |
6.8% – 9.0% 15 – 16席 |
12.8% | |
| 6/5 | Exit Poll - TVI INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） |
24.4% – 28.8% 64 – 78席 |
37.7% – 42.5% 107 – 121席 |
10.1% – 13.7% 12 – 28席 |
3.8% – 7.0% 4 – 12席 |
6.2% – 9.4% 11 – 20席 |
6.6% – 9.8% 0 – 1席 |
13.3% 13.7% |
| 6/2 | Eurosondagem | 31.0% | 35.5% | 13.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| 5/31–6/2 | Aximage | 29.2% | 37.4% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% |
| 6/1 | Eurosondagem | 31.1% | 35.9% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| 5/29–6/1 | Aximage | 30.1% | 36.3% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% |
| 5/28–6/1 | INTERCAMPUS | 31.1% | 36.5% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% |
| 5/31 | Eurosondagem | 31.3% | 35.4% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% |
| 5/28–31 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.1% | 38.5% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| 5/30 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.2% | 35.5% | 12.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| 25/8–29 | Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 31.0% | 36.0% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| 5/29 | Eurosondagem | 32.1% | 34.7% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| 5/25–29 | INTERCAMPUS | 32.3% | 37.0% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| 5/27 | Eurosondagem | 32.4% | 33.7% | 13.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 1.3% |
| 5/26 | Eurosondagem | 32.3% | 33.9% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| 5/21–26 | INTERCAMPUS | 34.1% | 35.8% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/25 | Eurosondagem | 32.5% | 33.6% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| 5/24 | Eurosondagem | 32.0% | 33.7% | 13.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 1.7% |
| 5/23 | Eurosondagem | 32.6% | 33.1% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 0.5% |
| 5/21–22 | Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 36.0% | 36.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 5/18–22 | INTERCAMPUS | 33.2% | 39.6% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 6.4% |
| 5/14–18 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 29.5% | 31.1% | 12.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 14.0% | 1.6% |
| 5/11–15 | INTERCAMPUS | 35.4% | 36.1% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 5/7–12 | INTERCAMPUS | 36.8% | 33.9% | 13.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% |
| 5/9–10 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.4% | 39.7% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% |
| 5/4–8 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.1% | 36.2% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| 5/2–5 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 34.8% | 37.0% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| 4/28–5/3 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.5% | 35.8% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
| 4/29–5/2 | Aximage | 28.3% | 31.5% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 3.2% |
| 4/30–5/1 | Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 36.0% | 34.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| 4/14–19 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.7% | 36.3% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| 4/15–17 | Marktest | 36.1% | 35.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 0.8% |
| 4/8–10 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.1% | 38.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.6% |
| 4/2–3 | Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.0% | 39.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| 3/28–30 | Aximage | 28.4% | 34.8% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 6.4% |
| 3/27–30 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.4% | 37.3% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% |
| 3/24–26 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.8% | 42.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.3% | 9.4% |
| 3/23：若瑟·苏格拉底因不信任动议通过而下台，确定举行提前选举[7] | ||||||||
| 3/18–23 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 24.5% | 46.7% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 22.2% |
| 3/3–7 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 27.9% | 37.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 10.0% |
| 2/23–28 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.6% | 36.9% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 2/17–23 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 29.1% | 47.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 18.7% |
| 2/3–8 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 29.3% | 36.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% |
| 2/1–3 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 27.8% | 37.8% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| 1/19–21 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.3% | 37.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| 1/16–19 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.8% | 36.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 6.0% |
| 1/5–11 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 29.6% | 37.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| 1/3–6 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 25.4% | 38.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 12.9% |
| 2011 | ||||||||
| 12/10–15 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.1% | 41.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 1.1% | 11.5% |
| 12/5–7 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 27.2% | 39.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 12.6% |
| 12/2–7 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.3% | 36.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| 11/16–19 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 26.9% | 44.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 17.4% |
| 11/12–17 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.5% | 39.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 8.7% |
| 11/4–9 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.0% | 36.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% |
| 10/26–29 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 26.5% | 35.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.7% |
| 10/23–25 | Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 26.0% | 40.0% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 14.0% |
| 10/19–24 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 25.1% | 42.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 16.9% |
| 10/6–12 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.3% | 35.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 10/4–6 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.0% | 35.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 10/1–4 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 31.7% | 30.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 1.1% |
| 9/14–17 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.7% | 38.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| 9/6–9 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.8% | 32.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 1.7% |
| 9/1–7 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 36.0% | 35.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 0.2% |
| 7/28–8/2 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.0% | 36.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/20–26 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.3% | 37.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| 7/16–19 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 34.4% | 39.2% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.8% |
| 7/8–11 | Euroexpansão（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 31.7% | 41.0% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| 7/1–6 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.7% | 36.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/1–4 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.6% | 34.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 4.3% |
| 6/19–21 | Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 34.0% | 37.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
| 6/15–20 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 24.1% | 47.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 23.6% |
| 6/2–8 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 34.8% | 34.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 0.1% |
| 6/1–7 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.5% | 31.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 1.1% |
| 5/18–20 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 27.6% | 43.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 16.3% |
| 5/13–18 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 36.2% | 33.0% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% |
| 5/4–7 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 30.2% | 31.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 1.3% |
| 4/27–30 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.8% | 41.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 1.2% | 5.8% |
| 4/20–25 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 34.0% | 39.8% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% |
| 4/8–13 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 36.0% | 28.5% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% |
| 4/5–8 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.2% | 30.4% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 1.8% |
| 3/29：佩德罗·桑塔纳·洛佩斯当选社民党党魁[8] | ||||||||
| 3/16–21 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.6% | 30.8% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| 3/6–9 | Universidade Católica（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 41.0% | 33.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| 3/5–9 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 34.0% | 25.1% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 8.9% |
| 3/4–9 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 36.9% | 26.2% | 14.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 10.7% |
| 2/23–27 | INTERCAMPUS（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 40.4% | 34.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
| 2/16–21 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.9% | 30.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| 2/10–13 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.4% | 26.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 6.1% |
| 2/4–9 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 38.1% | 26.9% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 11.2% |
| 2/2–5 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.8% | 24.8% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 9.0% |
| 1/19–23 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 40.5% | 29.2% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 11.3% |
| 1/7–12 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 38.0% | 27.4% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 10.6% |
| 1/6–11 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 33.4% | 26.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 6.9% |
| 2010 | ||||||||
| 12/7–10 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 32.5% | 24.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 8.1% |
| 11/25–12/1 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 38.5% | 26.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 11.6% |
| 11/17–19 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 41.7% | 25.6% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 16.1% |
| 11/6–8 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.2% | 27.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% |
| 10/29–11/3 | Eurosondagem（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 38.8% | 27.5% | 12.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 11.3% |
| 10/0–24 | Marktest（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 42.9% | 23.7% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 19.2% |
| 10/12–15 | Aximage（页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆） | 35.3% | 25.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 9.9% |
| 2009/9/27 | 选举结果 | 36.6% 97席 |
29.1% 81席 |
10.4% 21席 |
9.8% 16席 |
7.9% 15席 |
6.2% 0席 |
7.5% |
结果
反对党以比民调更大的差距击败执政党。社民党领袖佩德罗·帕索斯·科埃略成为总理候选人。
| 政党 | 票数 | % | ± | 议会席次 | 席次%/ 票数% | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2011 | ± | % | ± | ||||||||||
| 社会民主党 | 2,159,181 | 38.66 | ▲9.6 | 81 | 108 | ▲27 | 46.96 | ▲11.7 | 1.21 | |||||
| 社会党 | 1,566,347 | 28.05 | ▼8.5 | 97 | 74 | ▼23 | 32.17 | ▼10.0 | 1.15 | |||||
| 人民党 | 653,888 | 11.71 | ▲1.3 | 21 | 24 | ▲3 | 10.43 | ▲1.3 | 0.89 | |||||
| 联合民主联盟 | 441,147 | 7.90 | ▲0.0 | 15 | 16 | ▲1 | 6.96 | ▲0.4 | 0.88 | |||||
| 左翼集团 | 288,923 | 5.17 | ▼4.6 | 16 | 8 | ▼8 | 3.48 | ▼3.5 | 0.67 | |||||
| 葡萄牙工人共产党 | 62,610 | 1.12 | ▲0.2 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 爱护动物和自然党 | 57,995 | 1.04 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 | |||||
| 地球党 | 22,705 | 0.41 | ▲0.3 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 期望葡萄牙运动 | 21,942 | 0.39 | ▼0.1 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 民族更新党 | 17,548 | 0.31 | ▲0.1 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 工党 | 16,895 | 0.30 | ▲0.2 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 人民君主主义者党 | 14,687 | 0.26 | ▼0.0 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 新民主党 | 11,806 | 0.21 | ▼0.2 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 葡萄牙亲生活党 | 8,209 | 0.15 | ━ 0.0 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 社会主义团结工人党 | 4,572 | 0.08 | ━ 0.0 | 0 | 0 | ━ 0 | 0.00 | ━ 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 大西洋民主党 | 4,569 | 0.08 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 | |||||
| 人道党 | 3,588 | 0.06 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | — | 0.0 | |||||
| 总有效票 | 5,357,037 | 95.92 | ▼1.0 | 230 | 230 | ━ 0 | 100.00 | ━ 0.0 | — | |||||
| 空白票 | 148,618 | 2.66 | ▲0.9 | |||||||||||
| 无效票 | 79,399 | 1.42 | ▲0.1 | |||||||||||
| 总和 (投票率 58.03%) | 5,585,054 | 100.00 | ▼1.7 | |||||||||||
| Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições | ||||||||||||||
政府组阁
注释
外部链接
参见
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