共享社会经济路径

共享社会经济路径（英语：Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，简称：SSP）是假设全球于未来不同的气候变化情景之下，直到2100年在社会经济方面的结果。这些路径用来推测不同气候变化调适与缓解政策下导致的温室气体排放情景。^[2]^[3]^[4]这种概念已被应用在2021年发表的IPCC第六次评估报告之中。^[5]SSP提供一种用于描述社会经济发展的工具。这类工具是对具相互关联逻辑的叙事元素做定性描述。^[2]在定量元素方面，SSP提供各国人口、都市化和人均国内生产毛额（GDP）等情景的数据。^[6]SSP可经由各种综合评估模型（英语：Integrated Assessment Modelling） (IAM) 进行量化，以探索社会经济和气候方面的未来可能发展路径。^[3]^[4]^[6]

SSP包含的五种情景是：

SSP1："走向绿色之路（Taking the Green Road），达到永续性"
SSP2："中间路线（Middle of the Road）"
SSP3：-"崎岖之路（A Rocky Road），区域对抗"
SSP4："分裂之路（A Road divided），不平等"
SSP5："走上高速公路（Taking the Highway），透过化石燃料达成发展"^[7]

SSP的描述

SSP1：走向绿色之路，达到永续性

"世界正在逐渐，却更普遍转往更为永续的道路，强调尊重环境耐受能力而进行更具包容性的发展。全球众人的管理缓慢改善，进行教育和卫生投资以加速人口转型，对经济成长的重点转向更加重视人类福祉。在实现发展目标的推动中，国家之间和国家内部的不平等现像有所减少。消费面朝向低物质增长，以及朝较低的资源和能源强度前进。"^[3]^[10]

SSP2：中间路线

"世界所走的道路在社会、经济和技术的趋势中没明显背离过往历史模式。发展和收入成长方面并不平衡，有些国家取得相对较佳的进展，而有些国家则低于预期。全球和国家机构尽力，但在实现永续发展目标方面进度缓慢。虽然资源强度（英语：resource）和能源强度（英语：Energy intensity）有所改善，且总体上有所下降，环境系统却在恶化中。全球人口增长温和，并在本世纪下半叶趋于平稳。收入不平等依然存在或改善缓慢，减少社会和环境变化脆弱性的挑战仍然存在。"^[3]^[11]

SSP3：崎岖之路，区域对抗

"民族主义复苏、对竞争和安全的担忧，以及地区冲突促使各国更为专注国内问题，最多只会扩大到关注区域问题。政策随时间移动而转变，越来越以国家和地区安全问题为导向。各国注重实现区域内能源安全和粮食安全目标，以牺牲更广泛的发展为代价。对教育和技术发展的投资下降。经济发展缓慢，消费采资源密集型，不平等现象持续存在或随着时间演进而恶化。发达国家和地区的人口增长缓慢，发展中国家的增长比例较高。国际社会对解决环境问题的重视程度不高，导致一些地区的严重环境退化。"^[3]^[12]

SSP4：分裂之路，不平等

"于人力资本投资方面的高度不平等，加上经济机会和政治权力的差距日益扩大，导致国家之间和国家内部的不平等和分层日益加剧。随着时间演进，国际间互联的社会（可促进知识和资本发展，也是经济密集型部门）与劳动密集型的（低技术经济中的低收入、受教育程度不高群组的分散式组合）之间的差距不断扩大。社会凝聚力下降，冲突和动乱变得越来越为普遍。在高技术经济和部门中的技术高速发展。国际间互联社会的能源部门多元化，既会投资于煤炭和非常规石油等排放密集（英语：Emission intensive）型燃料，也投资于低碳能源。环境政策专注于中高收入地区的当地问题。"^[3]^[13]

SSP5：走上高速公路，透过化石燃料达成发展

"世界越来越相信市场竞争、创新和参与性社会能带来快速的技术进步和人力资本开发，将此作为可持续发展的道路。全球市场日益整合。在健康、教育和机构方面也有大量投资，以强化人力与社会资本。世界各地在推动经济社会发展的同时，进行开发丰富的化石燃料资源，以及采取资源和能源密集型生活方式，这些因素导致全球经济快速发展，全球人口于21世纪内达到高峰后随之下降。空气污染等当地环境问题获得成功管理。人们相信能有效管理社会和生态系统，包括在必要时可采用气候工程以为解决手段。"^[3]^[14]

IPCC第六次评估报告中的SSP气温预测

IPCC第六次评估报告根据SSP框架的五种情景提供预测全球气温结果。^[5]^[3]^[4]这些情景的名称由它们所根据的SSP途经 (由SSP1至SSP5) 以及预期2100年辐射强迫的水准（由1.9至8.5瓦/平方米（W/m2））组成。而产生如下所示的情景名称SSPx-y.z。

More information 路径, 情景 ...

IPCC第六次评估报告中所列的共享社会经济路径^[15] ^:SPM-14
查
论
编
路径	情景	估计升温 (2041年–2060年)	估计升温 (2081年–2100年)	非常可能（very likely）升温范围（°C） (2081年–2100年)
SSP1-1.9	非常低温室气体排放: 在2050年达到碳中和（净零排放）	1.6°C	1.4°C	1.0 – 1.8
SSP1-2.6	低温室气体排放: 在2075年达到碳中和	1.7°C	1.8°C	1.3 – 2.4
SSP2-4.5	中等温室气体排放: 在2050年仍维持目前排放水平，然后逐步降低，在2100年达到碳中和	2.0°C	2.7°C	2.1 – 3.5
SSP3-7.0	高温室气体排放: 在2100年二氧化碳排放加倍	2.1°C	3.6°C	2.8 – 4.6
SSP5-8.5	非常高温室气体排放: 在2075年二氧化碳排放增加两倍	2.4°C	4.4°C	3.3 – 5.7

Close

IPCC第六次报告中并无估计不同情景的发生几率，^[15]但有份2020年发表的评论将SSP5-8.5描述为高度不可能（highly unlikely），SSP3-7.0不太可能（unlikely），而SSP2-4.5为可能（likely）。^[16]

然而有份引用上述评论的报告显示，RCP8.5情景与2005年至2020年累计排放量有最佳的匹配。^[17]

参见

气候变化情景
耦合气候模式比对专案（英语：Coupled model intercomparison project）（CMIP）
IPCC温室气体排放情景特别报告（SRES）
代表性浓度路径（RCP）
IPCC温室气体排放情景特别报告 (2000年)

参考文献

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Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., . . . Wang, R. H. J. (2020). The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(8), 3571–3605. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020 互联网档案馆的存档，存档日期2023-04-16.
[2]
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (PDF). [2023-11-24]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2020-02-24）..
[3]
Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 153–168. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 .
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van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; van den Berg, Maarten; Harmsen, Mathijs; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Bouwman, Lex F.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Girod, Bastien. Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 237–250. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008 .
[11]
Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri; Klimont, Zbigniew; Gusti, Mykola; Johnson, Nils; Kolp, Peter; Strubegger, Manfred; Valin, Hugo; Amann, Markus; Ermolieva, Tatiana. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 251–267. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 .
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[13]
Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Eom, Jiyong; Hartin, Corinne; Kim, Sonny; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Moss, Richard; McJeon, Haewon. The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 284–296. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010 .
[14]
Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 297–315. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 .
[15]
Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Zhai, Panmao; Pirani, Anna; Connors, Sarah L.; Péan, Clotilde; Berger, Sophie; Caud, Nada; Chen, Yang; Goldfarb, Leah; Gomis, Melissa I.; Huang, Mengtian; Leitzell, Katherine; Lonnoy, Elisabeth; Matthews, J. B. Robin; Maycock, Tom K.; Waterfield, Tim; Yelekçi, Ozge; Yu, Rong; Zhou, Baiquan (编). Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC / Cambridge University Press. 2021-08-09 [2021-08-09]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2021-08-13）.
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Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen P. Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading. Nature. 2020-01-29, 577 (618–620): 618–620 [2021-09-03]. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. PMID 31996825. S2CID 256819346. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3.
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Schwalm, Christopher R.; Glendon, Spencer; Duffy, Philip B. RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions. PNAS. 2020-08-03, 117 (33): 19656–19657. Bibcode:2020PNAS..11719656S. PMC 7443890 . PMID 32747549. doi:10.1073/pnas.2007117117 .

资料来源

Meinshausen, Malte. Implications of the Developed Scenarios for Climate Change. Teske, Sven (编). Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals. Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5°C and +2°C (Springer International Publishing). 2019: 459–469. ISBN 9783030058432. S2CID 133868222. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_12.
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[1] [1]
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., . . . Wang, R. H. J. (2020). The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(8), 3571–3605. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020 互联网档案馆的存档，存档日期2023-04-16.

[UNECE-2] [2]
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (PDF). [2023-11-24]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2020-02-24）..

[:2-3] [3]
Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 153–168. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 .

[:3-4] [4]
Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change. 2018, 8 (4): 325–332 [2022-04-23]. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..325R. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 56238230. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3. hdl:1874/372779. （原始内容存档于2022-04-23）（英语）.

[:4-5] [5]
Climate Change 2021 - The Physical Science Basis (PDF). ipcc.ch. [2021-08-15]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2021-08-13）.

[:1-6] [6]
SSP Database. tntcat.iiasa.ac.at. [2019-11-09]. （原始内容存档于2020-04-25）.

[7] [7]
Hausfather, Zeke. Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change. Carbon Brief. 2018-04-19 [2019-09-13]. （原始内容存档于2020-01-07）.

[8] [8]
Saunois, Marielle; Stavert, Ann R.; Poulter, Ben; Bousquet, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Jackson, Robert B.; Raymond, Peter A.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Houweling, Sander; Patra, Prabir K.; Ciais, Philippe; Arora, Vivek K.; Bastviken, David; Bergamaschi, Peter; Blake, Donald R.; Brailsford, Gordon; Bruhwiler, Lori; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Carrol, Mark; Castaldi, Simona; Chandra, Naveen; Crevoisier, Cyril; Crill, Patrick M.; Covey, Kristofer; Curry, Charles L.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Frankenberg, Christian; Gedney, Nicola; Hegglin, Michaela I.; et al. The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017. Earth System Science Data. 15 July 2020, 12 (3): 1561–1623 [2020-08-28]. Bibcode:2020ESSD...12.1561S. ISSN 1866-3508. doi:10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020 . （原始内容存档于2022-05-16）（英语）.

[9] [9]
O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kemp-Benedict, Eric; Riahi, Keywan; Rothman, Dale S.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Birkmann, Joern; Kok, Kasper; Levy, Marc; Solecki, William. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 169–180. ISSN 0959-3780. S2CID 59321840. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004. hdl:1874/347567 （英语）.

[10] [10]
van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; van den Berg, Maarten; Harmsen, Mathijs; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Bouwman, Lex F.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Girod, Bastien. Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 237–250. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008 .

[11] [11]
Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri; Klimont, Zbigniew; Gusti, Mykola; Johnson, Nils; Kolp, Peter; Strubegger, Manfred; Valin, Hugo; Amann, Markus; Ermolieva, Tatiana. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 251–267. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 .

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Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Herran, Diego Silva; Dai, Hancheng; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Kainuma, Mikiko. SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 268–283. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009 .

[13] [13]
Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Eom, Jiyong; Hartin, Corinne; Kim, Sonny; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Moss, Richard; McJeon, Haewon. The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 284–296. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010 .

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Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. 2017-01-01, 42: 297–315. ISSN 0959-3780. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 .

[IPCC_2021_WGI-15] [15]
Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Zhai, Panmao; Pirani, Anna; Connors, Sarah L.; Péan, Clotilde; Berger, Sophie; Caud, Nada; Chen, Yang; Goldfarb, Leah; Gomis, Melissa I.; Huang, Mengtian; Leitzell, Katherine; Lonnoy, Elisabeth; Matthews, J. B. Robin; Maycock, Tom K.; Waterfield, Tim; Yelekçi, Ozge; Yu, Rong; Zhou, Baiquan (编). Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC / Cambridge University Press. 2021-08-09 [2021-08-09]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2021-08-13）.

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