的影響。那些未納入考慮的微小變數,可能完全扭轉本來的預測。 The Ludic Fallacy. Chapter from thebook "TheBlackSwan" Taleb, Nassim N. TheBlackSwan. Random House. 2007. ISBN 1-4000-6351-5
Nobel for crisis, says author of 'BlackSwan'" (页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆), Reuters (2010-09-28). Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The pseudo-science hurting markets (PDF)