2024年賓夕凡尼亞州聯邦參議員選舉於11月5日舉行，旨在選舉出代表賓夕凡尼亞州的美國參議院議員。在此次選舉中，現任民主黨籍參議員小鮑勃·凱西敗於共和黨提名人大衛·麥考密克，未能贏得第四任期。[2]此次選舉初選於2024年4月23日舉行。[3]這場選舉被視為民主黨能否保住參議院多數黨地位的關鍵之戰。[4]
.jpg)
背景
賓夕凡尼亞州在聯邦層面被認為是搖擺州，尤其是因為在2020年總統大選中祖·拜登僅以約1.2個百分點的優勢贏得該州。民主黨目前控制着賓夕凡尼亞州的聯邦參議員以及州長職位，同時在該州聯邦眾議院代表團以及賓夕凡尼亞州眾議院佔據多數。共和黨上次於賓夕凡尼亞州贏得聯邦參議員席位是在2016年。[5][6][7][8]
現任參議員小鮑勃·凱西於2006年的藍色浪潮中順利當選，當時他以大約17個百分點的優勢擊敗了時任參議員里克·桑托勒姆。在2012年他以9個百分點的優勢再次當選（當時他領先奧巴馬近4個百分點），並在2018年的藍色浪潮中以13個百分點的優勢再次當選。[9][10][11]
這場競選因該州黨派傾向接近均衡而被視為競爭激烈的選舉，然而大多數民調顯示凱西略微領先，是獲勝的熱門人選。[12]
民主黨初選
小鮑勃·凱西
- 行政部門官員
- 聯邦參議員
- 聯邦眾議員
- 克里斯·卡尼，賓夕凡尼亞州第十國會選區議員（2007年-2011年）[16]
- 克里斯·德魯齊奧，賓夕凡尼亞州第十七國會選區議員（2003年至今）[17]
- 克麗茜·霍拉罕，賓夕凡尼亞州第六國會選區議員（2019年至今）[16]
- 康納·蘭姆，賓夕凡尼亞州第十七國會選區議員（2018年-2023年）[16]
- 州級官員
- 個人
- 政黨
- 賓夕凡尼亞州民主黨[22]
- 組織
- 美國以色列公共事務委員會（AIPAC）[23]
- CASA在行動[24]
- 宜居世界委員會[25]
- 以色列民主黨多數派[26]
- 結束公民聯合會[27]
- 女權多數政治行動委員會[28]
- 吉福茲[29]
- 哈佛大學民主黨[30]
- 人權戰線[31]
- 人道協會立法基金[32]
- 美國猶太民主黨委員會[33]
- 政治事務聯合行動委員會[34]
- 環境保護選民聯盟[35]
- 全國維護社會保障和醫療保險委員會[36]
- 自然資源保護委員會[37]
- 美國下一代政治行動委員會[21]
- 和平行動[38]
- 賓夕凡尼亞州教育協會[39]
- 美國之道組織[40]
- 向左搖擺[41]
- 工會
- 演員權益協會[42]
- 美國州、市、縣和市政僱員聯合會第13理事會[43]
- 空乘人員協會[44]
- 全國教育協會[45]
- 賓夕凡尼亞州勞工聯合會-產業工會聯合會[46]
- 美國礦工聯合會[47]
- 美國鋼鐵工人聯合會[48]
- 報紙
- 費城同性戀新聞[49]
共和黨初選
- 布蘭迪·托馬塞蒂，前康尼斯托加鎮財務主管兼秘書（以海選候選人身份參選）[53]
大衛·麥考密克
- 行政部門官員
- 喬治·W·布殊，美國第43任總統（2001年-2009年）[60]
- 卡爾·羅夫，前白宮政策副幕僚長（2005年-2007年）[60]
- 當勞·特朗普，美國第45任總統（2017年-2021年）兼共和黨總統候選人[61]
- 聯邦官員
- 州內閣官員
- 羅伯特·格里森，前賓夕凡尼亞州州務卿（1985年-1987年）[64]
- 聯邦參議員
- 帕特·圖米，賓夕凡尼亞州聯邦參議員（2011年-2023年）[65]
- 里克·桑托勒姆，賓夕凡尼亞州聯邦參議員（1995年-2007年）[66]
- 瑪爾塔·布萊克本，田納西州聯邦參議員（2019年至今）[67]
- 史蒂夫·戴恩斯，蒙大拿州聯邦參議員（2015年至今）[68]
- 米奇·麥康奈爾，美國肯塔基州聯邦參議員（1985年至今）兼參議院少數黨領袖（2007年-2015年，2021年至今）[69]
- 聯邦眾議員
- 拜仁·菲茨派翠克，賓夕凡尼亞州第一國會選區議員（2017年至今）[64]
- 吉姆·喬丹，俄亥俄州第四國會選區議員（2007年至今）[70]
- 約翰·喬伊斯，賓夕凡尼亞州第十三國會選區（2019年至今）[64]
- 麥克·凱利 ，賓夕凡尼亞州第十六國會選區（2011年至今）[64]
- 丹·默瑟，賓夕凡尼亞州第九國會選區（2019年至今）[64]
- 史葛·佩里，賓夕凡尼亞州第十國會選區（2013年至今）[64]
- 蓋伊·瑞森紹爾，賓夕凡尼亞州第十四國會選區（2019年至今）[64]
- 羅伊德·斯馬克，賓夕凡尼亞州第十一國會選區（2017年至今）[64]
- 格倫·湯普森，賓夕凡尼亞州第十五國會選區（2009年至今）[64]
- 州參議員
- 地方官員
- 政黨官員
- 組織
- 政黨
- 賓夕凡尼亞州共和黨[79]
- 個人
| 民調來源 | 調查 日期 |
樣本 大小[a] |
誤差 幅度 |
凱西·巴內特 | 道格·馬斯特里亞諾 | 大衛·麥考密克 | 未決定 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 2023年3月9日至10日 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
| – | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
假定狀況下的民調
第三黨候選人
- 約翰·湯馬士，教育家[81]
- 埃里克·格哈特，木匠，2022年聯邦參議員選舉提名人，2020年總統候選人[82]
- 利拉·哈祖，店主[83]
- 伯納德·塞爾克，卡車司機[83]
- 埃里克·梅西納[84]
決選
小鮑勃·凱西（D）
- 民意調查匯總
| 民意調查匯總來源 | 調查日期 | 更新日期 | 小鮑勃·凱西（D） | 大衛·麥考密克（R） | 未決定 [c] |
誤差 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | 截至2024年11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.2% | 45.4% | 6.4% | 凱西+2.8% |
| RealClearPolitics | 2024年10月21日至11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.1% | 46.3% | 5.6% | 凱西+1.8% |
| 270toWin | 2024年10月24日至11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.4% | 45.9% | 5.7% | 凱西+2.5% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | 截至2024年11月4日 | 2024年11月4日 | 48.6% | 46.6% | 4.8% | 凱西+2.0% |
| 平均 | 48.3% | 46.1% | 5.6% | 凱西+2.2% | ||
| 民調來源 | 調查 日期 |
樣本 大小[a] |
誤差 幅度 |
小鮑勃·凱西（D） | 大衛·麥考密克（R） | 其他 | 未決定 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024年11月3日至4日 | 1,840 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2% |
| Survation | 2024年11月1日至4日 | 929 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 3%[d] | 6% |
| Research Co. | 2024年11月2日至3日 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 46% | 2%[e] | 4% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | 2024年11月1日至3日 | 903 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | 2024年11月1日至3日 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 2024年11月1日至2日 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel | 2024年11月1日至2日 | 2,049 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 3%[f] | 2% |
| Emerson College[A] | 2024年10月30日至11月2日 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| NYT/Siena College[B] | 2024年10月29日至11月2日 | 1,527 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 45% | – | 4% |
| 1,527 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% | ||
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | 2024年10月25日至11月2日 | 699 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 44% | 1%[g] | 6% |
| 726 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 43% | 2%[h] | 7% | ||
| Morning Consult | 2024年10月23日至11月1日 | 1,538 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| OnMessage (R) | 2024年10月29日至31日 | 800 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| Data for Progress (D) | 2024年10月25日至31日 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | 2%[i] | 4% |
| YouGov[C] | 2024年10月25日至31日 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
| 982 (RV) | 50% | 43% | – | 6% | |||
| ActiVote | 2024年10月14日至31日 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50.5% | 49.5% | – | – |
| Muhlenberg College[D] | 2024年10月27日至30日 | 460 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 49% | 46% | 3% | 1% |
| Suffolk University[E] | 2024年10月27日至30日 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2%[i] | 2% |
| Marist College | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,400 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | 1%[j] | 1% |
| 1,558 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | 1%[j] | 1% | ||
| Echelon Insights | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 47% | 3%[k] | 5% |
| AtlasIntel | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 3%[f] | 2% |
| The Washington Post | October 26–30, 2024 | 1,204 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | 2%[l] | 3% |
| 1,204 (RV) | 49% | 45% | 3%[m] | 3% | |||
| AtlasIntel | 2024年10月25日至29日 | 1,229 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3%[f] | 2% |
| Fox News | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,057 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
| 1,310 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 46% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | October 24–28, 2024 | 2,186 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 50% | 47% | 2%[n] | 1% |
| Monmouth University | October 24–28, 2024 | 824 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 44% | – | 12% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 23–28, 2024 | 819 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 45% | 6%[o] | 1% |
| CBS News/YouGov | October 22–28, 2024 | 1,249 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 42% | 3%[p] | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 2%[q] | 4% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[F] | October 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 42% | 5%[r] | 9% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 16–23, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3%[s] | 7% |
| Emerson College[G] | October 21–22, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 46% | 2%[t] | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | October 18–22, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2%[u] | 4% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 9–20, 2024 | 583 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
| 794 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 41% | 5%[v] | 6% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 17–19, 2024 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| AtlasIntel | October 12–17, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 48% | 2%[w] | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group | October 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 8% |
| YouGov[H] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,043 (LV) | ± 3.44% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| 1,062 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||
| Morning Consult | October 6–15, 2024 | 1,395 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| NYT/Siena College[B] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| 857 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% | ||
| American Pulse Research & Polling | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 45% | 2%[x] | 5% |
| TIPP Insights (R)[F] | October 7–9, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 43% | 1%[y] | 9% |
| 1,079 (RV) | 48% | 40% | 1%[z] | 12% | |||
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | October 2–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 3%[aa] | 10% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 7–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | 2%[q] | 6% |
| Emerson College[A] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Research Co. | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 1%[ab] | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 43% | 2%[ac] | 5% |
| ActiVote | September 6 – October 7, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[ad] | September 28–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 44% | 5%[ae] | 7% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | September 27–29, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | – |
| The Bullfinch Group[I] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 48% | 39% | 12%[af] | – |
| 52% | 42% | 6%[ag] | – | ||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 26–29, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
| Emerson College[G] | September 27–28, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
| AtlasIntel | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 1%[ah] | 6% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 3%[ai] | 6% |
| 52% | 45% | – | 3% | ||||
| Fox News | September 20–24, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 2% |
| 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 2% | ||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D)[K] |
September 17–24, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | September 16–22, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 40% | 1%[ak] | 11% |
| RMG Research[L] | September 18–20, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | 1%[aj] | 5% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[M] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College[D] | September 16–19, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 43% | 5% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 2%[al] | 10% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | September 11–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 38% | 3%[aa] | 13% |
| Emerson College[A] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| MassINC Polling Group[O] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 2%[am] | 6% |
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| Marist College | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 46% | 1%[j] | 1% |
| 1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||
| Quinnipiac University | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 43% | 1%[an] | 3% |
| The Washington Post | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 46% | 7%[ao] | – |
| 48% | 48% | 5%[ap] | – | ||||
| NYT/Siena College[B] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| 1,082 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 2%[q] | 5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 40% | 3%[aq] | 10% |
| Suffolk University[E] | September 11–14, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2%[ar] | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 36% | 5%[as] | 14% |
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| co/efficient | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.29% | 45% | 36% | – | 19% |
| CBS News/YouGov | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 3%[at] | 8% |
| YouGov[C] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 41% | – | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 8% |
| CNN/SRSS | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 46% | 7%[au] | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 38% | 4%[av] | 14% |
| Emerson College[A] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[P] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| 800 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | – | 15% | ||
| ActiVote | August 3-23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| Fabrizio Ward[Q] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| Cygnal (R) | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| 42% | 38% | 7%[aw] | 13% | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 36% | 1%[ax] | 17% |
| Emerson College | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 44% | 1%[ay] | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[R] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | July 21 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 3%[az] | 13% |
| NYT/Siena College | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
| 693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 37% | – | 11% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 40% | 2%[ba] | 12% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 53% | 40% | – | 7% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 42% | – | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 4%[bb] | 11% |
| Emerson College[S] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| SoCal Research (R)[T] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[U] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[N] | July 16–18, 2024 | 688 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 3%[bc] | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[V] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| YouGov[C] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 38% | 1% | 11% |
| 889 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
| NYT/Siena College | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 10% |
| 872 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
| Expedition Strategies[W] | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 284 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[M] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 4% |
| Cygnal (R) | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| The Bullfinch Group[X] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
| Emerson College[A] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| Marist College | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 46% | – | 2% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
| 923 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% | ||
| KAConsulting (R)[Y] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 47% | 37% | 4%[bd] | 12% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[J] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| NYT/Siena College[B] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
| 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[K] |
April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College[A] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,306 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
| Muhlenberg College | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 45% | 41% | 5% | 9% |
| The Bullfinch Group[R] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
| National Public Affairs | March 2024 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 28% | – | 40% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–31, 2024 | 431 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
| The Bullfinch Group[X] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 30% | 8% | 15% |
| Emerson College | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
| Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Chism Strategies | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[Z] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | January 17–28, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 43% | 1%[aj] | 2% |
| Common Ground (R)[X] | December 8–12, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 27% | 13%[be] | 20% |
| Change Research (D)[AA] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 0% | 15% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% | 12% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
| Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 2%[bf] | 4% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
| Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 0% | 13% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
| 民調來源 | 調查 日期 |
樣本 大小[a] |
誤差 幅度 |
小鮑勃·凱西（D） | 道格·馬斯特里亞諾（R） | 未決定 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
假定狀況下的民調
- 小鮑勃·凱西 vs 道格·馬斯特里亞諾
註釋
參考文獻
外部連結
Wikiwand in your browser!
Seamless Wikipedia browsing. On steroids.
Every time you click a link to Wikipedia, Wiktionary or Wikiquote in your browser's search results, it will show the modern Wikiwand interface.
Wikiwand extension is a five stars, simple, with minimum permission required to keep your browsing private, safe and transparent.
