The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia

 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 
Turnout47.04% Increase
 
Nominee Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 290,510 271,113
Percentage 49.56% 46.27%

Manchin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Morrisey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Close

Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin was considered to be among the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing re-election in 2018 due to the state's deepening partisan lean and his declining popularity. Manchin ultimately won a second full term, though by a much narrower margin of 3.33% compared to his 2012 landslide. Manchin outperformed the margins of defeat from both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 40 percentage points.

As of 2024, this is the last time that a Democrat won a congressional and/or non-judicial statewide election in West Virginia.

Background

West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold at the state and federal level, but is now deeply red at the federal and state levels. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 13.1%. From 1959 to 2015, West Virginia was exclusively represented in the U.S. Senate by Democrats.

In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney defeated Obama by 26.7% and swept every single county in the state. Despite this, Manchin was reelected in his own landslide over perennial candidate John Raese, receiving more than 60% of the vote and carrying all but three counties. Manchin's 2012 re-election against Raese was a rematch between the two, as Manchin previously defeated Raese in the 2010 special election where he was first elected to the U.S. Senate.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin over Hillary Clinton (68–26%), with Clinton's performance being the worst for either party in the state's history. Trump also won every county in the state.

Concurrent with Trump's landslide victory in West Virginia, Democratic businessman Jim Justice won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote but changed his party affiliation back to Republican within a year (Justice had previously been a Republican prior to running as a Democrat for governor). Democrats lost almost every statewide office in the state in 2016, with State Treasurer John Perdue being the only statewide Democrat re-elected.

Because of the heavy Republican lean of his state, Manchin was ranked by many outlets as one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection. President Trump headlined three rallies in the state on behalf of Manchin's opponent Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his highly contentious confirmation hearing, making him the only Democrat to do so, garnered national attention and backlash from members of his own party just weeks before the midterm elections.[1] Despite the challenges to his re-election, Manchin leaned into his close personal ties to the state and emphasized his moderate views.

Although Manchin was seen as vulnerable during the lead-up to the election, polling considered him to be a slight favorite for most of the general election cycle.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Paula Jean Swearengin

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Joe
Manchin
Paula Jean
Swearengin
Undecided
SurveyMonkey (D-Swearengin)[12] September 2017 46% 8% 38%
Close

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
Manchin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 112,658 69.86%
Democratic Paula Jean Swearengin 48,594 30.14%
Total votes 161,252 100%
Close

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Declined

Endorsements

Evan Jenkins

State officials

Organizations

Debates

More information Host network, Date ...
Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Evan
Jenkins
Patrick
Morrisey
Don
Blankenship
Bo
Copley
Jack
Newbrough
Tom
Willis
Fox News May 1, 2018 [31] Invited Invited Invited
WVPB April 23, 2018 [32] Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Don
Blankenship
Evan
Jenkins
Patrick
Morrisey
Other Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey)[33] April 22–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 15% 26% 28% 18%
Fox News[34] April 18–22, 2018 985 ± 3.0% 16% 25% 21% 8%[35] 24%
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC)[36] April 17–19, 2018 411 ± 4.9% 12% 20% 24% 5%[37] 39%
Osage Research (R-Morrisey)[38] March 13, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 17% 24% 4%[39]
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins)[40] March 5–6, 2018 400 27% 29% 19% 10%[41] 15%
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins)[42] February 5–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 18% 33% 25% 12% 12%
42% 36% 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC)[43] October 19–22, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 34% 40% 26%
Close

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
Morrisey
  •   Morrisey—70–80%
  •   Morrisey—60–70%
  •   Morrisey—50–60%
  •   Morrisey—40–50%
  •   Morrisey—30–40%
  •   Morrisey—<30%
Jenkins
  •   Jenkins—30–40%
  •   Jenkins—40–50%
  •   Jenkins—50–60%
  •   Jenkins—60–70%
Blankenship
  •   Blankenship—<30%
  •   Blankenship—30–40%
  •   Blankenship—40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Patrick Morrisey 48,007 34.90%
Republican Evan Jenkins 40,185 29.21%
Republican Don Blankenship 27,478 19.97%
Republican Tom Willis 13,540 9.84%
Republican Bo Copley 4,248 3.09%
Republican Jack Newbrough 4,115 2.99%
Total votes 137,573 100%
Close

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Nominated

Constitution Party

Candidates

Denied ballot access

  • Don Blankenship, former chairman and CEO of Massey Energy. Observers noted that he would be ineligible to run due to West Virginia's sore-loser law which states that the loser of a partisan primary election cannot appear on the ballot as an independent or with another political party in the general election.[45] Blankenship was eligible to run as a write-in candidate.[46] Secretary of State Mac Warner denied ballot access to Blankenship's campaign on July 26, citing West Virginia's "sore loser" law. After a lawsuit, the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ordered Warner to deny Blankenship ballot access on August 29, 2018.[47]

Endorsements

Don Blankenship

Organizations

General election

Candidates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[50] Lean D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[51] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] Lean D November 5, 2018
CNN[53] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[54] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[55] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[56] Lean D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[57] Likely D November 6, 2018
Close

Endorsements

Joe Manchin (D)

U.S. Senators

Labor unions

Organizations

Other Individuals

Newspapers

  • The Sunday News-Register[69]
Patrick Morrisey (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

State Senators

State Delegates

Organizations

Other individuals

Newspapers

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018, Candidate (party) ...
Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Manchin (D) $8,872,162 $6,459,930 $4,200,530
Patrick Morrisey (R) $4,943,056 $3,315,300 $1,627,756
Source: Federal Election Commission[100]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Rusty
Hollen (L)
Other Undecided
Emerson College[101] October 28–31, 2018 1,013 ± 3.2% 47% 42% 3% 8%
Research America Inc.[102] October 19–30, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 45% 40% 11% 5%
Strategic Research Associates[103] October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 52% 36% 4% 8%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC)[104] October 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 44% 3% 12%
45% 47% 8%
Vox Populi Polling[105] October 13–15, 2018 789 ± 3.5% 53% 47%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United)[106] October 11–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 2% 3%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC)[107] October 7–9, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 40% 8%
Strategic Research Associates[108] September 17–26, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 46% 38% 3% 13%
1892 Polling (R-Morrisey)[109] September 24–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 45% 10%
The Tarrance Group (R-SLF)[110] September 23–25, 2018 612 ± 4.1% 47% 43% 5% 5%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin)[111] September 19–23, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 48% 36% 4%
Emerson College[112] September 13–15, 2018 825 ± 3.5% 45% 33% 6% 16%
Harper Polling (R-35th PAC)[113] August 23–26, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 12%
Research America Inc.[114] August 16–26, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 46% 38% 16%
Trafalgar Group (R)[115] July 13–16, 2018 1,158 ± 2.9% 50% 40% 2% 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[116] June 11 – July 2, 2018 892 ± 5.5% 53% 40% 6%
Monmouth University[117] June 14–19, 2018 653 ± 3.8% 49% 42% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling[118] June 12–13, 2018 633 49% 42% 9%
Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC)[119] May 15–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 52% 40%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin)[120] May 13–16, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 50% 42%
47% 40% 4%
WPA Intelligence (R)[121] May 10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 44% 46% 11%
Zogby Analytics[122] September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 45% 38% 17%
Research America Inc.[123] August 11–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 51% 37% 12%
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 57% 35% 8%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Don
Blankenship (C)
Other Undecided
Research America Inc.[114] August 16–26, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 45% 34% 8% 13%
Monmouth University[117] June 14–19, 2018 653 ± 3.8% 48% 39% 4% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling[118] June 12–13, 2018 633 46% 35% 11% 7%
Gravis Marketing[125] May 22, 2018 543 ± 4.2% 51% 39% 5%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC)[36] April 17–19, 2018 37% 41% 20%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[126] February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,591 ± 3.5% 43% 52% 5%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Evan
Jenkins (R)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics[122] September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 49% 36% 15%
Research America Inc.[123] August 11–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 50% 40% 10%
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 51% 39% 10%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
Undecided
Zogby Analytics[122] September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 49% 35% 17%
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 58% 28% 14%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
David
McKinley (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 54% 34% 12%
Public Policy Polling[127] April 29 – May 1, 2016 1,201 ± 2.8% 46% 36% 18%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
David
McKinley (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 36% 42% 22%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC)[36] April 17–19, 2018 37% 49% 4% 11%
Zogby Analytics[122] September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 35% 40% 6% 19%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 41% 31% 28%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
Evan
Jenkins (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 31% 43% 25%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Carte
Goodwin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Undecided
Harper Polling[124] November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 39% 43% 18%
Close
Hypothetical polling

with Don Blankenship

with generic Republican

with Evan Jenkins

with Alex Mooney

with David McKinley

with generic Democratic and Republican

with Carte Goodwin

Results

Thumb
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
  •   Republican—+25-30%
  •   Republican—+30-35%
  •   Republican—+35-40%
  •   Republican—+>40%
More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018[128]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 290,510 49.57% −12.00%
Republican Patrick Morrisey 271,113 46.26% +9.79%
Libertarian Rusty Hollen 24,411 4.17% N/A
Total votes 586,034 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
Close

By congressional district

Manchin won all three congressional districts, all of which elected Republicans.[129]

More information District, Manchin ...
District Manchin Morrisey Representative
1st 49% 46% David McKinley
2nd 50% 46% Alex Mooney
3rd 49% 47% Evan Jenkins (115th Congress)
Carol Miller (116th Congress)
Close

By county

All results are from the office of the Secretary of State of West Virginia.[130]

More information County, Candidate ...
CountyCandidateTotal
votes
Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Rusty Hollen
% Votes % Votes % Votes
Barbour 42.98% 2,121 51.91% 2,562 5.11% 252 4,935
Berkeley 42.63% 14,508 53.21% 18,111 4.16% 1,416 34,035
Boone 57.12% 3,894 39.75% 2,710 3.12% 213 6,817
Braxton 51.24% 2,148 45.01% 1,887 3.75% 157 4,192
Brooke 50.93% 3,987 44.88% 3,513 4.19% 328 7,828
Cabell 58.18% 16,909 38.77% 11,267 3.05% 885 29,061
Calhoun 45.34% 967 49.93% 1,065 4.74% 101 2,133
Clay 46.92% 1,141 49.22% 1,197 3.87% 94 2,432
Doddridge 33.77% 746 61.20% 1,352 5.02% 111 2,209
Fayette 53.19% 6,502 42.22% 5,160 4.59% 561 12,223
Gilmer 47.22% 944 46.47% 929 6.30% 126 1,999
Grant 24.04% 935 72.49% 2,820 3.47% 135 3,890
Greenbrier 50.78% 6,201 45.55% 5,563 3.67% 448 12,212
Hampshire 33.80% 2,325 62.71% 4,313 3.49% 240 6,878
Hancock 46.53% 4,707 49.06% 4,963 4.42% 447 10,117
Hardy 41.41% 1,880 54.34% 2,467 4.25% 193 4,540
Harrison 51.05% 11,491 42.25% 9,512 6.70% 1,508 22,511
Jackson 47.89% 4,890 48.61% 4,964 3.50% 357 10,211
Jefferson 51.32% 10,666 45.04% 9,360 3.64% 756 20,782
Kanawha 61.58% 39,333 35.27% 22,527 3.16% 2,018 63,878
Lewis 41.64% 2,326 51.54% 2,879 6.82% 381 5,586
Lincoln 51.40% 2,899 45.27% 2,553 3.33% 188 5,640
Logan 47.74% 4,574 49.13% 4,708 3.13% 300 9,582
Marion 56.23% 10,889 37.59% 7,280 6.18% 1,197 19,366
Marshall 50.84% 5,485 45.12% 4,868 4.04% 436 10,789
Mason 51.06% 4,270 45.50% 3,805 3.44% 288 8,363
McDowell 48.67% 2,222 48.15% 2,198 3.18% 145 4,565
Mercer 41.19% 7,430 55.62% 10,033 3.20% 577 18,040
Mineral 34.79% 3,108 61.84% 5,525 3.37% 301 8,934
Mingo 42.13% 2,929 55.02% 3,825 2.85% 198 6,952
Monongalia 58.20% 18,010 35.28% 10,918 6.52% 2,019 30,947
Monroe 43.09% 2,125 53.61% 2,644 3.30% 163 4,932
Morgan 34.54% 2,143 60.98% 3,783 4.48% 278 6,204
Nicholas 45.75% 3,588 50.34% 3,948 3.91% 307 7,843
Ohio 55.18% 8,731 41.64% 6,588 3.19% 504 15,823
Pendleton 37.65% 948 58.70% 1,478 3.65% 92 2,518
Pleasants 45.88% 1,157 50.20% 1,266 3.93% 99 2,522
Pocahontas 44.59% 1,269 49.58% 1,411 5.83% 166 2,846
Preston 35.56% 3,686 57.34% 5,943 7.10% 736 10,365
Putnam 49.31% 10,513 47.33% 10,090 3.36% 716 21,319
Raleigh 43.86% 10,581 52.31% 12,620 3.84% 926 24,127
Randolph 50.27% 4,472 45.16% 4,017 4.58% 407 8,896
Ritchie 33.85% 1,082 61.36% 1,961 4.79% 153 3,196
Roane 51.30% 2,165 45.00% 1,899 3.70% 156 4,220
Summers 50.62% 2,069 45.71% 1,868 3.67% 150 4,087
Taylor 44.91% 2,376 49.94% 2,642 5.14% 272 5,290
Tucker 46.90% 1,469 47.96% 1,502 5.14% 161 3,132
Tyler 38.00% 1,065 57.19% 1,603 4.82% 135 2,803
Upshur 41.17% 3,102 53.23% 4,010 5.60% 422 7,534
Wayne 50.34% 6,395 46.87% 5,954 2.79% 355 12,704
Webster 45.03% 1,033 48.82% 1,120 6.15% 141 2,294
Wetzel 50.91% 2,518 43.17% 2,135 5.92% 293 4,946
Wirt 42.22% 790 53.71% 1,005 4.06% 76 1,871
Wood 48.88% 14,189 47.19% 13,696 3.93% 1,141 29,026
Wyoming 44.27% 2,607 52.57% 3,096 3.16% 186 5,889
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

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