The 2008 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The Senate election coincided with the presidential, U.S. House elections, gubernatorial, Council of State, and statewide judicial elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Kay Hagan.[1]
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  Hagan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90—100% Dole: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The November general election was the first time in North Carolina history, and only the eighth time in U.S. history, that the two major-party candidates for a U.S. Senate seat were both women. In addition, Hagan became the first woman to defeat an incumbent woman in a U.S. Senate election. As of 2024, this is the last time that a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Kay Hagan, State Senator
- Duskin Lassiter, trucker
- Jim Neal, businessman
- Howard Staley, doctor
- Marcus Williams, attorney
Campaign
Hagan, initially an unknown politician, decided to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole.[2]
National Democrats attempted to recruit incumbent Governor Mike Easley to make the race. A late October 2007 Rasmussen Report poll showed Easley defeating Dole 50% to 42%.[3][4] Easley declined to run, as did Congressman Brad Miller, who expressed interest in early 2007.[5][6] Former Governor Jim Hunt also declined to compete against Dole.[7][8]
Neal earned the endorsement of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. He also was endorsed by Blue America PAC, eQualityGiving, the Independent Weekly and YES ! Weekly.[9]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kay Hagan | 801,920 | 60.1% | |
| Democratic | Jim Neal | 239,623 | 18.0% | |
| Democratic | Marcus W. Williams | 170,970 | 12.8% | |
| Democratic | Duskin Lassiter | 62,136 | 4.6% | |
| Democratic | Howard Staley | 60,403 | 4.5% | |
| Total votes | 1,335,052 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Elizabeth Dole, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Pete DiLauro
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Elizabeth Dole (incumbent) | 460,665 | 90.0% | |
| Republican | Pete DiLauro | 51,406 | 10.0% | |
| Total votes | 512,071 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Chris Cole (L), perennial candidate
- Elizabeth Dole (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Kay Hagan (D), State Senator
Campaign
Dole was initially a heavy favorite for reelection, especially after several potential top-tier challengers such as Congressman Brad Miller, Governor Mike Easley and former Governor Jim Hunt all declined to compete against Dole.[7][8] Ultimately, Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, won the Democratic primary election and became Dole's general election opponent. Reports late in the campaign suggested that Dole, once considered a safe bet for reelection, suffered from Barack Obama's decision to aggressively contest North Carolina in the presidential election.[11]
Hagan was initially given little chance against Dole, but Hagan was helped by independent 527 groups lobbying/advertising against incumbent Dole.[8] The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee expended more money in North Carolina than in any other state during the 2008 election season.[8] However, Dole benefited from more out-of-state funding overall than Hagan.[12] The efforts appeared to be effective, as Hagan began to take the lead in several polls beginning in September.
In late October, Dole released a controversial television ad attacking Hagan for reportedly taking donations from individuals involved in the Godless Americans PAC, a group which advocates for the rights of people who do not believe in God. The ad also included a female voice saying, "There is no God."[13][14] The Dole campaign said the ad correctly shows who Hagan will associate with in order to raise campaign funds, and on November 1, Bob Dole also defended it, asserting that "it never questions her faith," and that "the issue is why she was there. There's no question about her faith. I think it's [the ad's] fair game."[15]
Hagan, who is a member of the Presbyterian Church and a former Sunday school teacher,[14] condemned the ad as "fabricated and pathetic," and, according to Hagan's campaign website, a cease-and-desist letter was "hand-delivered to Dole's Raleigh office, faxed to her Salisbury office and sent to her home at the Watergate in Washington, DC."[16] Hagan also filed a lawsuit in Wake County Superior Court accusing Dole of defamation and libel.[17][18]
The ad has met exceptionally strong criticism from the public as well as many local and several national media outlets. CNN's Campbell Brown said about the ad: "[A]mid all the attack ads on the airwaves competing to out-ugly one another, we think we've found a winner."[19] The ad has been described as "ridiculously outrageous,"[20] "indecent,"[21] a "gross misrepresentation,"[22] "worse than dishonest"[23] and "beyond the bounds of acceptable political disagreement,"[23] among other harsh criticism.[24] Another ad issued by the Dole campaign in mid-October 2008 was described by The Fayetteville Observer as "[setting] the low mark in negative political campaigning."[25] The media reported, that within 48 hours of the first ad Hagan received over 3,600 contributions, including major donors as well as individual support from a range of atheists, agnostics and followers of other religious beliefs who felt they were being attacked by Dole.[26] Following the second ad Hagan's lead doubled according to some polls.[26]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[27] | Tossup | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[28] | Lean D (flip) | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[29] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Tossup | November 2, 2008 |
Polling
Polls released during the week of October 28, 2008 showed Dole and Hagan within the statistical margin of error (3% apart).[2]
| Poll source | Dates administered | Kay Hagan (D) |
Elizabeth Dole (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[31] | February 18, 2008 | 33% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | April 10, 2008 | 39% | 52% |
| Research 2000/Daily Kos[33] | April 28–30, 2008 | 41% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | May 8, 2008 | 48% | 47% |
| Public Policy Polling[34] | May 8–9, 2008 | 43% | 48% |
| Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research[35] |
May 14–17, 2008 | 43% | 45% |
| Survey USA[36] | May 17–19, 2008 | 46% | 50% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | May 28–29, 2008 | 39% | 47% |
| Anzalone Liszt Research[38] | June 4, 2008 | 44% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | June 10, 2008 | 39% | 53% |
| Civitas Institute/ Tel Opinion Research[40] |
June 11–13, 2008 | 38% | 48% |
| The Tarrance Group[41] | July 9, 2008 | 36% | 51% |
| Survey USA[42] | July 14, 2008 | 42% | 54% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | July 15, 2008 | 43% | 54% |
| Public Policy Polling[43] | July 23–27, 2008 | 40% | 49% |
| Research 2000/Daily Kos[44] | July 28–30, 2008 | 42% | 50% |
| Insider Advantage[45] | August 19, 2008 | 40% | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | August 23, 2008 | 42% | 39% |
| Democracy Corps[47] | August 26, 2008 | 50% | 45% |
| Survey USA[48] | September 8, 2008 | 40% | 48% |
| Daily Kos/Research 2000[49] | September 10, 2008 | 42% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | September 18, 2008 | 51% | 45% |
| Public Policy Polling[50] | September 19, 2008 | 46% | 41% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | September 23, 2008 | 48% | 45% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | September 28–29, 2008 | 46% | 38% |
| Survey USA[52] | October 5–6, 2008 | 43% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | October 8, 2008 | 49% | 44% |
| Survey USA[53] | October 20, 2008 | 46% | 45% |
| Rasmussen Reports[39] | October 29, 2008 | 52% | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling[54] | Oct 31-Nov 2, 2008 | 51% | 44% |
| Survey USA[55] | November 2, 2008 | 50% | 43% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kay Hagan | 2,249,311 | 52.65% | +7.7% | |
| Republican | Elizabeth Dole (incumbent) | 1,887,510 | 44.18% | −9.4% | |
| Libertarian | Chris Cole | 133,430 | 3.17% | +2.1% | |
| Write-in | 1,719 | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Total votes | 4,271,970 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Perquimans (Largest city: Hertford)
- Camden (Largest city: Camden)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Franklin (Largest city: Wake Forest)
- Montgomery (Largest city: Troy)
- Nash (largest municipality: Rocky Mount)
- New Hanover (largest municipality: Wilmington)
- Watauga (largest municipality: Boone)
- Alamance (largest municipality: Burlington)
- Brunswick (largest municipality: Leland)
- Greene (largest municipality: Snow Hill)
- Lee (largest municipality: Sanford)
- Person (largest municipality: Roxboro)
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Eden)
- Pender (largest municipality: Hampstead)
- Sampson (largest municipality: Clinton)
- Washington (largest municipality: Plymouth)
- Guilford (Largest city: Greensboro)
- Mecklenburg (Largest city: Charlotte)
- Tyrrell (largest municipality: Columbia)
- Buncombe (largest town: Asheville)
- Forsyth (largest town: Winston-Salem)
- Pitt (largest town: Greenville)
- Wake (largest town: Raleigh)
- Wilson (largest town: Wilson)
- Lenoir (largest town: Kinston)
Analysis
In the 2008 election, Dole lost by a wider-than-expected margin, taking only 44 percent of the vote to Hagan's 53 percent – the widest margin for a Senate race in North Carolina in 30 years, and the largest margin of defeat for an incumbent Senator in the 2008 cycle. It has been speculated that the outcry over the "Godless" ads contributed to Dole's loss.[57] Hagan trounced Dole in the state's five largest counties – Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Durham. Hagan also dominated most of the eastern portion of the state, which had been the backbone of Helms' past Senate victories. While Dole dominated the Charlotte suburbs and most of the heavily Republican Foothills region, it was not enough to save her seat.
See also
References
External links
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