2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut

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2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut

The 2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 6, 2012, in conjunction with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primaries to elect Senate candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties were held on Tuesday, August 14, 2012.[2]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...
2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut

 2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 
Turnout60.9% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Chris Murphy Linda McMahon
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Independent
Popular vote 828,761 651,089
Percentage 54.82% 43.07%

Murphy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McMahon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Lieberman
Independent

Elected U.S. Senator

Chris Murphy
Democratic

Close

Incumbent U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucused with the Democratic Party, decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fifth term.[3] Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon faced Democratic representative Chris Murphy in the general election and lost, marking two defeats in two years.[4] Elected at the age of 39, Chris Murphy would be the youngest senator in the 113th United States Congress.

Background

In the 2006 election, incumbent Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary by businessman Ned Lamont and formed his own party, Connecticut for Lieberman, winning re-election. Lieberman promised to remain in the Senate Democratic Caucus, but had since stood against the Democrats on many significant issues, including his endorsement of Republican 2008 presidential nominee John McCain over Barack Obama.[5] As a result, Lieberman's poll numbers among Democrats dropped significantly.[6][7]

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was reportedly considering a run against Lieberman,[8] but instead ran for and won Connecticut's other Senate seat in 2010 after U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd announced his retirement.[9]

Lieberman had publicly floated the possibility of running as a Democrat,[10] Republican,[11] or an independent.[12] However, on January 19, 2011, he announced that he would not run for another term.[3]

Democratic primary

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Matthew Oakes, activist (endorsed Murphy)[17]
  • William Tong, State Representative (running for re-election; endorsed Murphy)[18]

Debates

The first Democratic debate took place on February 23, 2012, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, and Tong participating.[19] The first televised debate was held on April 5, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, Tong, Oakes, and Whitnum participating.[20] A debate was held at UConn on April 9, with the five candidates participating.[21] A debate sponsored by WFSB took place on April 15, with all five taking part.[22]

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Democratic Party endorsed Chris Murphy at their state party convention held on May 12. Murphy was the choice of 1,378 delegates (76 percent), while Susan Bysiewicz won 444 delegates (24 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Matthew Oakes received the support of one delegate from Hartford. Lee Whitnum's name was not placed in nomination.[23]

Endorsements

Chris Murphy

Politicians

Organizations

Susan Bysiewicz

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Bysiewicz
Chris
Murphy
William
Tong
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[30] March 17–20, 2011 400 ±4.9% 38% 40% 21%
Quinnipiac[31] September 8–13, 2011 447 ±4.6% 26% 36% 1% 2% 35%
Public Policy Polling[32] September 22–25, 2011 400 ±4.9% 33% 39% 8% 19%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 640 ±3.9% 25% 37% 4% 5% 29%
Quinnipiac[34] May 29 – June 3, 2012 538 ±4.2% 20% 50% 5% 24%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 26–29, 2012 400 ±4.9% 32% 49% 18%
Close

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Murphy—70–80%
  Murphy—60–70%
  Murphy—50–60%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chris Murphy 89,283 67.4%
Democratic Susan Bysiewicz 43,135 32.6%
Total votes 132,418 100.0%
Close

Republican primary

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Debates

A debate sponsored by the Norwich Bulletin took place on April 19, 2012, with McMahon, Shays, Lumaj, Hill, and Westby in attendance.[41] The debate was not televised. The first televised debate took place on April 22, 2012, sponsored by WFSB.[42] All five candidates participated.

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Republican Party endorsed Linda McMahon at their state party convention held on May 18. McMahon was the choice of 730 delegates (60 percent), while Chris Shays won 389 delegates (32 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Brian K. Hill, Peter Lumaj, and Kie Westby did not meet the 15 percent threshold necessary to automatically qualify for the primary, receiving the support of 62, 22, and 5 delegates, respectively.[43] Hill pursued a post-convention attempt to petition his way onto the primary ballot, but fell short of the 8,319 signatures required and suspended his campaign in June.[44]

Endorsements

Chris Shays

Politicians

Organizations

Newspapers

Linda McMahon

Politicians

Organizations

Brian K. Hill

Politicians

  • Herman Cain, former CEO of Godfather's Pizza and former 2012 presidential candidate

Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jason
McCoy
Linda
McMahon
Chris
Shays
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac[55] September 8–13, 2011 332 ±5.4% 50% 35% 2% 12%
Public Policy Polling[32] September 22–25, 2011 400 ±4.9% 3% 60% 27% 10%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 429 ±4.7% 51% 42% 1% 6%
Quinnipiac[34] May 29 – June 3, 2012 381 ±5.0% 59% 30% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 26–29, 2012 400 ±4.9% 68% 20% 12%
Close

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  McMahon—80–90%
  McMahon—70–80%
  McMahon—60–70%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Linda McMahon 83,413 72.7%
Republican Chris Shays 31,305 27.3%
Total votes 114,718 100.0%
Close

General election

Summarize
Perspective

Candidates

  • Linda McMahon (Republican, Independent), businesswoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[56]
  • Chris Murphy (Democratic, Working Families), U.S. Representative[56]
  • Paul Passarelli (Libertarian)[56]

Campaign

Susan Bysiewicz was the first to declare herself as a candidate.[57] However, by March 2011 Chris Murphy had raised over $1 million to Bysiewicz's $500,000. Murphy had won election to Connecticut's 5th congressional district, which is considered Republican-leaning, and he promoted himself as the most electable candidate against a Republican challenger. Bysiewicz, the former Secretary of the State of Connecticut, enjoyed high name recognition while a statewide officeholder, and had a formidable face-off with Murphy. William Tong, a state representative, joined the race touting his biography as the son of Chinese immigrants working at a Chinese restaurant.[58] In January East Hartford resident Matthew John Oakes announced his candidacy. Oakes pointed to his real-life experience being a disabled American, victim of crime, and civil rights activist, growing up in the inner city and being a political outsider.[59]

Wide speculation continued on Linda McMahon, who had a widely publicized race for senator in 2010. She lost the election decisively, but had strong finances and a well-established political organization.[58] McMahon met with her former campaign consultant to review her 2010 results, and said she was leaning towards running. She planned to make a decision regarding another run after the start of 2012. Former congressman Chris Shays joined in August 2011, promoting his involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan's military contracting.[60] Shays campaign had also gained traction from a series of independent polls showing him beating or in a dead heat with the top Democratic contenders in the general election, while those same polls showed McMahon losing handily to each of the top Democratic contenders.[45] The Shays campaign quickly capitalized on these polls, arguing for the former Congressman's electability while questioning McMahon's electability due to her loss in an open Senate seat contest in 2010 by a large margin despite spending $50 million of her own money, also citing her high unfavorable numbers among state voters, and the weak fundraising numbers of the McMahon campaign.[61]

In July 2012, Shays declared that he would not support McMahon if she won the primary. He said that he had "never run against an opponent that I have respected less—ever—and there are a lot of candidates I have run against," adding that "I do not believe that Linda McMahon has spent the time, the energy to determine what [being] a senator really means." He also said that during the last debate he had with McMahon, "I thought she was embarrassingly clueless" and that "I think she is a terrible candidate and I think she would make a terrible senator." Although he said he would not support Chris Murphy, he expected him to win the Democratic nomination and the general election.[62]

In September 2012, the records of the McMahons' 1976 bankruptcy and specifics of nearly $1 million unpaid debts from the proceeding were published.[63] In days the candidate and her husband announced the "intention to reimburse all private individual creditors that can be located".[64]

Debates

Fundraising

More information Candidate (party), Receipts ...
Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Chris Murphy (D) $10,543,456 $10,436,219 $107,239 $189,925
Linda McMahon (R) $50,956,502 $50,262,442 $351,464 $1,250,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[65][66]
Close

Top contributors

More information Chris Murphy, Contribution ...
Chris Murphy Contribution Linda McMahon Contribution
Moveon.org $112,864 Morgan Stanley $31,050
Yale University $69,101 Linda McMahon for Senate $26,174
League of Conservation Voters $47,388 General Electric $24,250
Koskoff, Koskoff & Bieder $44,916 Ott International $15,000
Travelers Companies $41,000 Thor Industries $12,500
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company $40,650 JPMorgan Chase & Co. $11,231
Sullivan & Cromwell $36,500 Ceci Brothers Inc. $10,000
Comcast Corporation $36,000 Invemed Associates $10,000
Shipman & Goodwin $35,511 Midstream Partners $10,000
Northeast Utilities $34,789 Tudor Investment Corporation $10,000
Source: OpenSecrets[67]
Close

Top industries

More information Chris Murphy, Contribution ...
Chris Murphy Contribution Linda McMahon Contribution
Retired $1,041,795 Financial Institutions $121,717
Lawyers/Law Firms $861,258 Retired $81,949
Financial Institutions $580,370 Misc Business $55,302
Real Estate $319,466 Manufacturing & Distributing $46,500
Leadership PACs $302,500 Misc Finance $38,050
Insurance Industry $302,025 Business Services $28,932
Health Professionals $285,150 Real Estate $27,000
Democratic/Liberal $267,018 Republican/Conservative $25,630
Universities $232,951 Candidate Committees $24,874
Business Services $228,550 Lawyers/Law Firms $24,372
Source: OpenSecrets[68]
Close

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[69] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[70] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[71] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[72] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2012
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Murphy (D)
Linda
McMahon (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 54% 38% 9%
Quinnipiac[74] September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ±2.8% 49% 38% 11%
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 50% 43% 6%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ±2.4% 52% 37% 9%
Quinnipiac[34] May 29 – June 3, 2012 1,408 ±2.6% 46% 43% 9%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 26–29, 2012 771 ±3.5% 50% 42% 8%
Rasmussen Reports[76] August 21, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 49% 5%
Public Policy Polling[77] August 22–23, 2012 881 ±3.3% 48% 44% 8%
Quinnipiac[34] August 22–26, 2012 1,472 ±2.6% 46% 49% 4%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant[78] September 11–16, 2012 517 ±4.0% 37% 33% 1% 28%
Public Policy Polling[79] September 24–26, 2012 801 ±3.5% 48% 42% 10%
Quinnipiac University Poll[80] September 28 – October 2, 2012 1,696 ±2.5% 47% 48% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[81] October 7, 2012 500 ±4.5% 51% 46% 2% 1%
Siena Research Institute[82] October 4–14, 2012 552 ±4.2% 46% 44% 8%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant[83] October 11–16, 2012 574 ±4% 44% 38% 17%
Public Policy Polling/LCV[84] October 15–16, 2012 1,015 ±3.1% 48% 44% 8%
Mason-Dixon[85] October 15–17, 2012 625 ±4% 44% 44% 12%
SurveyUSA[86] October 19–21, 2012 575 ±4.2% 47% 43% 3% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[87] October 21, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 47% 2% 3%
Quinnipiac[88] October 19–22, 2012 1,412 ±2.6% 49% 43% 1% 7%
Rasmussen Reports[89] October 28, 2012 500 ±4.5% 51% 45% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling[90] November 1–2, 2012 1,220 ±2.8% 52% 43% 4%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Mark
Boughton (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 44% 34% 22%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Murphy (D)
Mark
Boughton (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 52% 29% 19%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Linda
McMahon (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 50% 39% 12%
Quinnipiac[74] September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ±2.8% 46% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 47% 46% 7%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ±2.4% 49% 39% 9%
Quinnipiac[34] May 29 – June 3, 2012 1,408 ±2.6% 42% 46% 9%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 26–29, 2012 771 ±3.5% 45% 42% 13%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Michael
Fedele (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 45% 35% 20%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Murphy (D)
Michael
Fedele (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 51% 29% 20%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Scott
Frantz (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 45% 30% 24%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Murphy (D)
Scott
Frantz (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 51% 27% 22%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Lieberman (I)
Chris
Murphy (D)
Peter
Schiff (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[91] September 30 – October 2, 2010 810 ±3.4% 19% 39% 25% 17%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Lieberman (I)
Chris
Murphy (D)
Jodi
Rell (R)
Undecided
Research 2000[92] January 11–13, 2010 600 ±4.0% 23% 25% 47% 2%
810 ±3.4% 33% 47% 20%
Public Policy Polling[91] September 30 – October 2, 2010 810 ±3.4% 17% 37% 29% 17%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Lieberman (I)
Ned
Lamont (D)
Jodi
Rell (R)
Undecided
Research 2000[93] March 23–25, 2008 600 ±4.0% 25% 30% 42% 2%
Research 2000[94] September 8–10, 2009 600 ±4.0% 26% 26% 46% 2%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Lieberman (I)
Ned
Lamont (D)
Alan
Schlesinger (R)
Undecided
Research 2000[95] March 31 – April 2, 2008 600 ±4.0% 37% 51% 7% 5%
Research 2000[96] June 30 – July 2, 2008 600 ±4.0% 36% 51% 7% 6%
Research 2000[96] November 11–13, 2008 600 ±4.0% 34% 59% 3% 2%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Chris
Shays (R)
Undecided
Quinnipiac[74] September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ±2.8% 40% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 37% 48% 16%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ±2.4% 42% 43% 13%
Quinnipiac[34] May 29 – June 3, 2012 1,408 ±2.6% 40% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 26–29, 2012 771 ±3.5% 40% 43% 17%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Murphy (D)
Chris
Shays (R)
Undecided
Quinnipiac[74] September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ±2.8% 43% 37% 17%
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 43% 39% 18%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ±2.4% 41% 40% 17%
Quinnipiac[34] May 29 – June 3, 2012 1,408 ±2.6% 45% 37% 15%
Public Policy Polling[35] July 26–29, 2012 771 ±3.5% 47% 38% 15%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Bysiewicz (D)
Rob
Simmons (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 42% 39% 19%
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 41% 42% 17%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Murphy (D)
Rob
Simmons (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[73] March 17–20, 2011 822 ±3.4% 49% 34% 18%
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 45% 36% 20%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
William
Tong (D)
Rob
Simmons (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 32% 39% 29%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
William
Tong (D)
Linda
McMahon (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 38% 45% 17%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ±2.4% 39% 43% 9%
Close
More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
William
Tong (D)
Chris
Shays (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[75] September 22–25, 2011 592 ±4.0% 27% 46% 27%
Quinnipiac[33] March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ±2.4% 25% 50% 21%
Close
Hypothetical polling

With Mark Boughton

With Susan Bysiewicz

With Michael Fedele

With Scott Frantz

With Joe Lieberman

With Chris Shays

With Rob Simmons

With William Tong

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2012[97]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Chris Murphy 792,983 52.45% +12.72%
Working Families Chris Murphy 35,778 2.37% N/A
Total Chris Murphy 828,761 54.82% +15.09%
Republican Linda McMahon 604,569 39.99% +30.37%
Independent Party Linda McMahon 46,520 3.08% N/A
Total Linda McMahon 651,089 43.07% +33.45%
Libertarian Paul Passarelli 25,045 1.66% N/A
Write-in 6,869 0.45% +0.45%
Total votes 1,511,764 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Independent Democrat
Close

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Republican

By congressional district

Murphy won all 5 congressional districts.[98]

More information District, Murphy ...
District Murphy McMahon Representative
1st 59.81% 38.61% John B. Larson
2nd 52.74% 44.92% Joe Courtney
3rd 59.66% 38.65% Rosa DeLauro
4th 53.5% 44.525% Jim Himes
5th 50.72% 47.79% Elizabeth Esty
Close

See also

References

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