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The 2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 6, 2012, in conjunction with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primaries to elect Senate candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties were held on Tuesday, August 14, 2012.[2]
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| Turnout | 60.9% (voting eligible)[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Murphy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McMahon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucused with the Democratic Party, decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fifth term.[3] Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon faced Democratic representative Chris Murphy in the general election and lost, marking two defeats in as many years.[4] Elected at the age of 39, Chris Murphy would be the youngest senator in the 113th United States Congress.
In the 2006 election, incumbent Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary by businessman Ned Lamont and formed his own party, Connecticut for Lieberman, winning re-election. Lieberman promised to remain in the Senate Democratic Caucus, but had since stood against the Democrats on many significant issues, including his endorsement of Republican 2008 presidential nominee John McCain over Barack Obama.[5] As a result, Lieberman's poll numbers among Democrats dropped significantly.[6][7]
Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was reportedly considering a run against Lieberman,[8] but instead ran for and won Connecticut's other Senate seat in 2010 after U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd announced his retirement.[9]
Lieberman had publicly floated the possibility of running as a Democrat,[10] Republican,[11] or an independent.[12] However, on January 19, 2011, he announced that he would not run for another term.[3]
The first Democratic debate took place on February 23, 2012, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, and Tong participating.[19] The first televised debate was held on April 5, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, Tong, Oakes, and Whitnum participating.[20] A debate was held at UConn on April 9, with the five candidates participating.[21] A debate sponsored by WFSB took place on April 15, with all five taking part.[22]
Delegates of the Connecticut Democratic Party endorsed Chris Murphy at their state party convention held on May 12. Murphy was the choice of 1,378 delegates (76 percent), while Susan Bysiewicz won 444 delegates (24 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Matthew Oakes received the support of one delegate from Hartford. Lee Whitnum's name was not placed in nomination.[23]
Politicians
Organizations
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz |
Chris Murphy |
William Tong |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[30] | March 17–20, 2011 | 400 | ±4.9% | 38% | 40% | — | — | 21% |
| Quinnipiac[31] | September 8–13, 2011 | 447 | ±4.6% | 26% | 36% | 1% | 2% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | September 22–25, 2011 | 400 | ±4.9% | 33% | 39% | 8% | — | 19% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 640 | ±3.9% | 25% | 37% | 4% | 5% | 29% |
| Quinnipiac[34] | May 29 – June 3, 2012 | 538 | ±4.2% | 20% | 50% | — | 5% | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | July 26–29, 2012 | 400 | ±4.9% | 32% | 49% | — | — | 18% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Chris Murphy | 89,283 | 67.4% | |
| Democratic | Susan Bysiewicz | 43,135 | 32.6% | |
| Total votes | 132,418 | 100.0% | ||
A debate sponsored by the Norwich Bulletin took place on April 19, 2012, with McMahon, Shays, Lumaj, Hill, and Westby in attendance.[41] The debate was not televised. The first televised debate took place on April 22, 2012, sponsored by WFSB.[42] All five candidates participated.
Delegates of the Connecticut Republican Party endorsed Linda McMahon at their state party convention held on May 18. McMahon was the choice of 730 delegates (60 percent), while Chris Shays won 389 delegates (32 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Brian K. Hill, Peter Lumaj, and Kie Westby did not meet the 15 percent threshold necessary to automatically qualify for the primary, receiving the support of 62, 22, and 5 delegates, respectively.[43] Hill pursued a post-convention attempt to petition his way onto the primary ballot, but fell short of the 8,319 signatures required and suspended his campaign in June.[44]
Politicians
Organizations
Newspapers
Politicians
Organizations
Politicians
Organizations
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jason McCoy |
Linda McMahon |
Chris Shays |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[55] | September 8–13, 2011 | 332 | ±5.4% | — | 50% | 35% | 2% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | September 22–25, 2011 | 400 | ±4.9% | 3% | 60% | 27% | — | 10% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 429 | ±4.7% | — | 51% | 42% | 1% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac[34] | May 29 – June 3, 2012 | 381 | ±5.0% | — | 59% | 30% | 1% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | July 26–29, 2012 | 400 | ±4.9% | — | 68% | 20% | — | 12% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Linda McMahon | 83,413 | 72.7% | |
| Republican | Chris Shays | 31,305 | 27.3% | |
| Total votes | 114,718 | 100.0% | ||
Susan Bysiewicz was the first to declare herself as a candidate.[57] However, by March 2011 Chris Murphy had raised over $1 million to Bysiewicz's $500,000. Murphy had won election to Connecticut's 5th congressional district, which is considered Republican-leaning, and he promoted himself as the most electable candidate against a Republican challenger. Bysiewicz, the former Secretary of the State of Connecticut, enjoyed high name recognition while a statewide officeholder, and had a formidable face-off with Murphy. William Tong, a state representative, joined the race touting his biography as the son of Chinese immigrants working at a Chinese restaurant.[58] In January East Hartford resident Matthew John Oakes announced his candidacy. Oakes pointed to his real-life experience being a disabled American, victim of crime, and civil rights activist, growing up in the inner city and being a political outsider.[59]
Wide speculation continued on Linda McMahon, who had a widely publicized race for senator in 2010. She lost the election decisively, but had strong finances and a well-established political organization.[58] McMahon met with her former campaign consultant to review her 2010 results, and said she was leaning towards running. She planned to make a decision regarding another run after the start of 2012. Former congressman Chris Shays joined in August 2011, promoting his involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan's military contracting.[60] Shays campaign had also gained traction from a series of independent polls showing him beating or in a dead heat with the top Democratic contenders in the general election, while those same polls showed McMahon losing handily to each of the top Democratic contenders.[45] The Shays campaign quickly capitalized on these polls, arguing for the former Congressman's electability while questioning McMahon's electability due to her loss in an open Senate seat contest in 2010 by a large margin despite spending $50 million of her own money, also citing her high unfavorable numbers among state voters, and the weak fundraising numbers of the McMahon campaign.[61]
In July 2012, Shays declared that he would not support McMahon if she won the primary. He said that he had "never run against an opponent that I have respected less—ever—and there are a lot of candidates I have run against," adding that "I do not believe that Linda McMahon has spent the time, the energy to determine what [being] a senator really means." He also said that during the last debate he had with McMahon, "I thought she was embarrassingly clueless" and that "I think she is a terrible candidate and I think she would make a terrible senator." Although he said he would not support Chris Murphy, he expected him to win the Democratic nomination and the general election.[62]
In September 2012, the records of the McMahons' 1976 bankruptcy and specifics of nearly $1 million unpaid debts from the proceeding were published.[63] In days the candidate and her husband announced the "intention to reimburse all private individual creditors that can be located".[64]
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Murphy (D) | $10,543,456 | $10,436,219 | $107,239 | $189,925 |
| Linda McMahon (R) | $50,956,502 | $50,262,442 | $351,464 | $1,250,000 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[65][66] | ||||
| Chris Murphy | Contribution | Linda McMahon | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moveon.org | $112,864 | Morgan Stanley | $31,050 | |
| Yale University | $69,101 | Linda McMahon for Senate | $26,174 | |
| League of Conservation Voters | $47,388 | General Electric | $24,250 | |
| Koskoff, Koskoff & Bieder | $44,916 | Ott International | $15,000 | |
| Travelers Companies | $41,000 | Thor Industries | $12,500 | |
| Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company | $40,650 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $11,231 | |
| Sullivan & Cromwell | $36,500 | Ceci Brothers Inc. | $10,000 | |
| Comcast Corporation | $36,000 | Invemed Associates | $10,000 | |
| Shipman & Goodwin | $35,511 | Midstream Partners | $10,000 | |
| Northeast Utilities | $34,789 | Tudor Investment Corporation | $10,000 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets[67] | ||||
| Chris Murphy | Contribution | Linda McMahon | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retired | $1,041,795 | Financial Institutions | $121,717 | |
| Lawyers/Law Firms | $861,258 | Retired | $81,949 | |
| Financial Institutions | $580,370 | Misc Business | $55,302 | |
| Real Estate | $319,466 | Manufacturing & Distributing | $46,500 | |
| Leadership PACs | $302,500 | Misc Finance | $38,050 | |
| Insurance Industry | $302,025 | Business Services | $28,932 | |
| Health Professionals | $285,150 | Real Estate | $27,000 | |
| Democratic/Liberal | $267,018 | Republican/Conservative | $25,630 | |
| Universities | $232,951 | Candidate Committees | $24,874 | |
| Business Services | $228,550 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $24,372 | |
| Source: OpenSecrets[68] | ||||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[69] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[70] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[71] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[72] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Linda McMahon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 54% | 38% | — | 9% |
| Quinnipiac[74] | September 8–13, 2011 | 1,230 | ±2.8% | 49% | 38% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 50% | 43% | — | 6% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 1,622 | ±2.4% | 52% | 37% | — | 9% |
| Quinnipiac[34] | May 29 – June 3, 2012 | 1,408 | ±2.6% | 46% | 43% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | July 26–29, 2012 | 771 | ±3.5% | 50% | 42% | — | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[76] | August 21, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 46% | 49% | — | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[77] | August 22–23, 2012 | 881 | ±3.3% | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
| Quinnipiac[34] | August 22–26, 2012 | 1,472 | ±2.6% | 46% | 49% | — | 4% |
| Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant[78] | September 11–16, 2012 | 517 | ±4.0% | 37% | 33% | 1% | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling[79] | September 24–26, 2012 | 801 | ±3.5% | 48% | 42% | — | 10% |
| Quinnipiac University Poll[80] | September 28 – October 2, 2012 | 1,696 | ±2.5% | 47% | 48% | — | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[81] | October 7, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 51% | 46% | 2% | 1% |
| Siena Research Institute[82] | October 4–14, 2012 | 552 | ±4.2% | 46% | 44% | — | 8% |
| Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant[83] | October 11–16, 2012 | 574 | ±4% | 44% | 38% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling/LCV[84] | October 15–16, 2012 | 1,015 | ±3.1% | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon[85] | October 15–17, 2012 | 625 | ±4% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[86] | October 19–21, 2012 | 575 | ±4.2% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[87] | October 21, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac[88] | October 19–22, 2012 | 1,412 | ±2.6% | 49% | 43% | 1% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[89] | October 28, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[90] | November 1–2, 2012 | 1,220 | ±2.8% | 52% | 43% | — | 4% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Mark Boughton (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 44% | 34% | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Mark Boughton (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Linda McMahon (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 50% | 39% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac[74] | September 8–13, 2011 | 1,230 | ±2.8% | 46% | 38% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 1,622 | ±2.4% | 49% | 39% | 9% |
| Quinnipiac[34] | May 29 – June 3, 2012 | 1,408 | ±2.6% | 42% | 46% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | July 26–29, 2012 | 771 | ±3.5% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Michael Fedele (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Michael Fedele (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Scott Frantz (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 45% | 30% | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Scott Frantz (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Lieberman (I) |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Peter Schiff (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[91] | September 30 – October 2, 2010 | 810 | ±3.4% | 19% | 39% | 25% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Lieberman (I) |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Jodi Rell (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[92] | January 11–13, 2010 | 600 | ±4.0% | 23% | 25% | 47% | 2% |
| 810 | ±3.4% | 33% | 47% | — | 20% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[91] | September 30 – October 2, 2010 | 810 | ±3.4% | 17% | 37% | 29% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Lieberman (I) |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Jodi Rell (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[93] | March 23–25, 2008 | 600 | ±4.0% | 25% | 30% | 42% | 2% |
| Research 2000[94] | September 8–10, 2009 | 600 | ±4.0% | 26% | 26% | 46% | 2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Lieberman (I) |
Ned Lamont (D) |
Alan Schlesinger (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[95] | March 31 – April 2, 2008 | 600 | ±4.0% | 37% | 51% | 7% | 5% |
| Research 2000[96] | June 30 – July 2, 2008 | 600 | ±4.0% | 36% | 51% | 7% | 6% |
| Research 2000[96] | November 11–13, 2008 | 600 | ±4.0% | 34% | 59% | 3% | 2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Chris Shays (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[74] | September 8–13, 2011 | 1,230 | ±2.8% | 40% | 42% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 37% | 48% | 16% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 1,622 | ±2.4% | 42% | 43% | 13% |
| Quinnipiac[34] | May 29 – June 3, 2012 | 1,408 | ±2.6% | 40% | 44% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | July 26–29, 2012 | 771 | ±3.5% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Chris Shays (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[74] | September 8–13, 2011 | 1,230 | ±2.8% | 43% | 37% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 1,622 | ±2.4% | 41% | 40% | 17% |
| Quinnipiac[34] | May 29 – June 3, 2012 | 1,408 | ±2.6% | 45% | 37% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[35] | July 26–29, 2012 | 771 | ±3.5% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Susan Bysiewicz (D) |
Rob Simmons (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Murphy (D) |
Rob Simmons (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[73] | March 17–20, 2011 | 822 | ±3.4% | 49% | 34% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 45% | 36% | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
William Tong (D) |
Rob Simmons (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 32% | 39% | 29% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
William Tong (D) |
Linda McMahon (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 1,622 | ±2.4% | 39% | 43% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
William Tong (D) |
Chris Shays (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[75] | September 22–25, 2011 | 592 | ±4.0% | 27% | 46% | 27% |
| Quinnipiac[33] | March 14–19, 2012 | 1,622 | ±2.4% | 25% | 50% | 21% |
With Mark Boughton
With Susan Bysiewicz
With Michael Fedele
With Scott Frantz
With Joe Lieberman
With Chris Shays
With Rob Simmons
With William Tong
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Chris Murphy | 792,983 | 52.45% | +12.72% | |
| Working Families | Chris Murphy | 35,778 | 2.37% | N/A | |
| Total | Chris Murphy | 828,761 | 54.82% | +15.09% | |
| Republican | Linda McMahon | 604,569 | 39.99% | +30.37% | |
| Independent Party | Linda McMahon | 46,520 | 3.08% | N/A | |
| Total | Linda McMahon | 651,089 | 43.07% | +33.45% | |
| Libertarian | Paul Passarelli | 25,045 | 1.66% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 6,869 | 0.45% | +0.45% | ||
| Total votes | 1,511,764 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Independent Democrat | |||||
Murphy won all 5 congressional districts.[98]
| District | Murphy | McMahon | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 59.81% | 38.61% | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 52.74% | 44.92% | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 59.66% | 38.65% | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 53.5% | 44.525% | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 50.72% | 47.79% | Elizabeth Esty |
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