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The 2010 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives. Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected were to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011, until January 3, 2013.
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All 8 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 55.65% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The state's 2009-2010 delegation consisted of five Democrats and three Republicans. With the exception of Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had won the open seat in District 1 during the previous election, all members of the delegation were incumbents who had served for at least a full term in Congress. Also, with the exception of retiring Republican John Shadegg of District 3, all incumbent members of the state's delegation ran for re-election.
As of August 17, 2010, Districts 1, 5 and 8, all held by Democrats, were considered to be competitive by both CQ Politics and The Cook Political Report.[1][2] The primary elections for Congressional races were held on August 24, 2010.[3][4]
The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arizona. In addition, the voter turnout and the number of votes not valid will be listed below.[5]
| Party | Candidates | Votes | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
| Republican | 8 | 900,510 | 53.03 | 5 |  2 |
62.50 | |
| Democratic | 8 | 711,837 | 41.92 | 3 |  2 |
37.50 | |
| Libertarian | 8 | 72,216 | 4.25 | 0 |  |
0.0 | |
| Green | 3 | 9,066 | 0.53 | 0 | |
0.0 | |
| Independent | 1 | 4,506 | 0.27 | 0 | |
0.0 | |
| Total | 28 | 1,698,135 | 100.0 | 8 | |
100.0 | |
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[6]
| District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 112,816 | 49.72% | 99,233 | 43.73% | 14,869 | 6.55% | 226,918 | 100.0% | Republican gain |
| District 2 | 173,173 | 64.88% | 82,891 | 31.06% | 10,830 | 4.06% | 266,894 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 3 | 108,689 | 52.24% | 85,610 | 41.14% | 13,772 | 6.62% | 208,071 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 4 | 25,300 | 27.53% | 61,524 | 66.94% | 5,083 | 5.53% | 91,907 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 5 | 110,374 | 52.00% | 91,749 | 43.23% | 10,127 | 4.77% | 212,250 | 100.0% | Republican gain |
| District 6 | 165,649 | 66.42% | 72,615 | 29.12% | 11,119 | 4.46% | 249,383 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 7 | 70,385 | 44.23% | 79,935 | 50.23% | 8,824 | 5.54% | 159,144 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 8 | 134,124 | 47.30% | 138,280 | 48.76% | 11,174 | 3.94% | 283,578 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| Total | 900,510 | 53.03% | 711,837 | 41.92% | 85,798 | 5.05% | 1,698,145 | 100.0% | |
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 County results Kirkpatrick: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Gosar: 40–50% 50-60% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was elected with 55.9% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+6.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent) | 46,902 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 46,902 | 100.0 | ||
The Republican primary featured 8 candidates seeking to take on Kirkpatrick in the general election. Mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay, who had been the Republican nominee to run against Kirkpatrick in 2008, finished second in the primary behind dentist Paul Gosar. Other unsuccessful Republican candidates included attorney Bradley Beauchamp and former state legislator Russell Bowers.
Statewide officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Gosar, a political neophyte, buoyed by endorsements from highly visible Republican politicians, including Sarah Palin, won the primary with just under 31% of the vote.[11]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Paul Gosar | 21,941 | 30.7 | |
| Republican | Sydney Hay | 16,328 | 22.9 | |
| Republican | Bradley Beauchamp | 11,356 | 15.9 | |
| Republican | Russell Bowers | 10,552 | 14.8 | |
| Republican | Steve Mehta | 5,846 | 8.2 | |
| Republican | Thomas J. Zaleski | 2,105 | 3.0 | |
| Republican | Jon Jensen | 1,736 | 2.4 | |
| Republican | Joe Jaraczewski | 1,530 | 2.1 | |
| Total votes | 71,394 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Nicole Patti (write-in) | 23 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 23 | 100.0 | ||
Prior to Kirkpatrick's election in 2008, the 1st district had been held by Republicans since this version of the seat was created following the 2000 census.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) |
Paul Gosar (R) |
Nicole Patti (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners (D)[12] | October 12–14, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.4% | 41% | 38% | 6% | 15% |
| The Hill/ANGA[13] | September 25–30, 2010 | 403 (LV) | ±4.9% | 39% | 46% | 3% | 12% |
| Moore Information (R)[14] | August 30–31, 2010 | 412 (LV) | ±4.8% | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
| American Action Forum[15] | August 25–29, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 41% | 47% | – | 12% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[16] | August 24–26, 2010 | 500 (LV) | ±4.4% | 43% | 39% | – | 17% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[18] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[20] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[21] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[22] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[22] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
Kirkpatrick lost on November 2, 2010, to Paul Gosar and the seat reverted to the Republicans.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Paul Gosar | 112,816 | 49.7 | |
| Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent) | 99,233 | 43.7 | |
| Libertarian | Nicole Patti | 14,869 | 6.6 | |
| Majority | 13,583 | 6.0 | ||
| Total votes | 226,918 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
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Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+13.
Franks won an easy victory with over 80% of the vote in his favour.[23]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 81,252 | 80.9 | |
| Republican | Charles Black | 19,220 | 19.1 | |
| Total votes | 100,472 | 100.0 | ||
Retired teacher John Thrasher ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Thrasher has twice attempted to unseat Franks, losing to the incumbent by 19% in 2006 and by 22% in 2008.(campaign site, PVS)
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Thrasher | 32,503 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 32,503 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 318 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 318 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 173,173 | 64.9 | |
| Democratic | John Thrasher | 82,891 | 31.0 | |
| Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 10,820 | 4.1 | |
| Majority | 90,282 | 33.9 | ||
| Total votes | 266,884 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, retired. He was re-elected with 54.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+9.
On January 14, 2010, 8-term incumbent Shadegg announced his retirement at the end of his current term, making the third district an open seat.[24] In the wake of Shadegg's retirement, several Republicans declared their candidacy.[25]
Gorman gained national attention during the campaign for an ad showing her firing a Thompson submachine gun,[33] and for her cosponsorship of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill.[34]
Quayle, the initial frontrunner in the race, faced criticism for his prior involvement with the controversial rumour and gossip website "DirtyScottsdale.com". According to the site's founder, Quayle was one of the "original contributors" to the site, which covered Scottsdale nightlife with features including sexy photos of women, and was the predecessor to the gossip website TheDirty.com.[35] Quayle initially denied the rumors,[36] before admitting several weeks later that he did, in fact, write material for the site under the pen name Brock Landers.[35][37][38][39] Newcomer Steve Moak's strong fundraising[40] and television advertising blitz against Quayle saw him to be viewed as the new frontrunner, however he faced allegations that he illegally profited from a charity he had set up, hurt his campaign.[41][42]
Quayle emerged victorious with 22.1% of the vote, while businessman and political neophyte Steve Moak came in second with 18%.[23]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ben Quayle | 17,400 | 22.1 | |
| Republican | Steve Moak | 14,211 | 18.0 | |
| Republican | Jim Waring | 13,850 | 17.6 | |
| Republican | Vernon Parker | 13,411 | 17.0 | |
| Republican | Pamela Gorman | 6,473 | 8.2 | |
| Republican | Paulina Morris | 6,138 | 7.8 | |
| Republican | Sam Crump | 3,886 | 4.9 | |
| Republican | Ed Winkler | 1,353 | 1.7 | |
| Republican | Bob Branch | 1,141 | 1.4 | |
| Republican | LeAnn Hull | 1,044 | 1.3 | |
| Total votes | 78,907 | 100.0 | ||
Jon Hulburd filed his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on October 16, 2009.[43] The Hulburd campaign got off to a strong start and raised over $300,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009.[44] This attracted national attention with the DCCC naming the race as one of its top 17 races to watch nationwide.[45]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jon Hulburd | 27,388 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 27,388 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Michael Shoen | 392 | 99.7 | |
| Libertarian | Clay Adair (write-in) | 1 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 393 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Leonard Clark (write-in) | 5 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 5 | 100.0 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ben Quayle (R) |
Jon Hulburd (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[49] | October 16–17, 2010 | 655 (LV) | ±3.8% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[18] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[20] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[21] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[22] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[22] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ben Quayle | 108,689 | 52.2 | |
| Democratic | Jon Hulburd | 85,610 | 41.1 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Shoen | 10,478 | 5.0 | |
| Green | Leonard Clark | 3,294 | 1.6 | |
| Majority | 23,079 | 11.1 | ||
| Total votes | 208,071 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+13. Since taking office, he has been re-elected nine times with no less than 62% of the vote.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 24,613 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 24,613 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Janet Contreras | 8,085 | 60.1 | |
| Republican | Joe Peñalosa | 5,368 | 39.9 | |
| Total votes | 13,453 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 219 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 219 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Rebecca DeWitt | 148 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 148 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 61,524 | 66.8 | |
| Republican | Janet Contreras | 25,300 | 27.5 | |
| Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 2,718 | 3.0 | |
| Green | Rebecca DeWitt | 2,365 | 2.6 | |
| Majority | 36,224 | 39.3 | ||
| Total votes | 91,907 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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Incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+5.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Harry Mitchell (incumbent) | 29,716 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 29,716 | 100.0 | ||
Schweikert's victory sets up a rematch against Mitchell, who defeated him 53-44% in the 2008 general election.[52]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | David Schweikert | 26,678 | 37.2 | |
| Republican | Jim Ward | 18,480 | 25.8 | |
| Republican | Susan Bitter Smith | 17,297 | 24.1 | |
| Republican | Chris Salvino | 7,156 | 10.0 | |
| Republican | Lee Gentry | 1,157 | 1.6 | |
| Republican | Mark Spinks | 884 | 1.2 | |
| Total votes | 71,652 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Nick Coons | 306 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 306 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Ryan Blackman (write-in) | 4 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 4 | 100.0 | ||
Blackman withdrew from the general election.[53]
Prior to Mitchell's victory over incumbent conservative Republican J. D. Hayworth in 2006, the district had been held by Republicans since 1995, although it had been tending towards the Democrats. Schweikert posted signs across the district calling Mitchell a “lap dog” for Nancy Pelosi, after Mitchell voted for the 2008 bank bailout, the $787 billion stimulus law in 2009 and the Affordable Care Act in March 2010. This despite Mitchell's breaks with the Party on a number of Tax and climate change legislation.[54]
Statewide officials
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Harry Mitchell (D) |
David Schweikert (R) |
Nick Coons (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn Schoen Berland (D/The Hill/ANGA)[55] | October 12–14, 2010 | 408 (LV) | ±4.9% | 42% | 45% | 1% | 12% |
| Benenson Strategy Group (D)[56] | October 5–7, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 46% | 39% | — | 15% |
| National Research (R)[57] | October 5–6, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 43% | 45% | — | 12% |
| Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)[58] | September 26–27, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 43% | 40% | 6% | 11% |
| Harstad Strategic Research (D)[59] | September 13–16, 2010 | 509 (LV) | ±4.3% | 45% | 44% | 6% | 5% |
| National Research (R)[60] | August 31-September 2, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 38% | 46% | — | 16% |
| American Action Forum[61] | August 25–29, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 44% | 50% | — | 6% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[18] | Tilt R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[20] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[21] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[22] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[22] | Tilt R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
David Schweikert defeated Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell on November 2, 2010, returning the seat to the Republicans.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | David Schweikert | 110,374 | 52.0 | |
| Democratic | Harry Mitchell (incumbent) | 91,749 | 43.2 | |
| Libertarian | Nick Coons | 10,127 | 4.8 | |
| Majority | 18,625 | 8.8 | ||
| Total votes | 212,250 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
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Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+15.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 62,285 | 64.6 | |
| Republican | Jeff Smith | 34,137 | 35.4 | |
| Total votes | 96,422 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Rebecca Schneider | 26,220 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 26,220 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Darell Tapp (write-in) | 28 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 28 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Richard Grayson (write-in) | 6 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 6 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 165,649 | 66.3 | |
| Democratic | Rebecca Schneider | 72,615 | 29.1 | |
| Libertarian | Darell Tapp | 7,712 | 3.1 | |
| Green | Richard Grayson | 3,407 | 1.4 | |
| Majority | 93,034 | 37.2 | ||
| Total votes | 249,383 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
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Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 63.3% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+6.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 33,931 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 33,931 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ruth McClung | 15,455 | 51.0 | |
| Republican | Terry Myers | 7,044 | 23.2 | |
| Republican | Joseph Sweeney | 3,702 | 12.2 | |
| Republican | Robert Wilson | 2,737 | 9.0 | |
| Republican | Christopher J. Flowers | 1,394 | 4.6 | |
| Total votes | 30,332 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | George Keane | 159 | 56.8 | |
| Libertarian | Andrew Ibarra | 121 | 43.2 | |
| Total votes | 280 | 100.0 | ||
Despite the Democratic lean of the district, Grijalva faced a tougher than expected re-election campaign following his suggestion that businesses should boycott the state in response to the passing of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill. Both Grijalva and challenger, 28-year-old physicist Ruth McClung, benefitted from outside spending in the final weeks of the campaign, in addition to the national environment favouring the Republicans.[62][63]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Raúl Grijalva (D) |
Ruth McClung (R) |
George Keane (L) |
Harley Meyer (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summit Consulting Group[64] | October 4–5, 2010 | 1,807 (LV) | ±3.0% | 37% | 39% | — | — | 24% |
| Magellan Strategies (R)[65] | September 29, 2010 | 686 (LV) | ±3.7% | 40% | 38% | 4% | 5% | 13% |
| American Political Consultants (R)[66] | September 25–26, 2010 | 450 (LV) | ±4.3% | 42% | 35% | — | — | 23% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[18] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[20] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[21] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[22] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[22] | Tilts D | November 1, 2010 |
Two days after the election Grijalva was declared the winner, with his margin of victory being ultimately 6 points.[67]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 79,935 | 50.2 | |
| Republican | Ruth McClung | 70,385 | 44.2 | |
| Independent | Harley Meyer [47] | 4,506 | 2.8 | |
| Libertarian | George Keane | 4,318 | 2.7 | |
| Majority | 9,550 | 6.0 | ||
| Total votes | 159,144 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 54.7% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+4.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords (incumbent) | 55,530 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 55,530 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jesse Kelly | 43,097 | 48.3 | |
| Republican | Jonathan Paton | 37,066 | 41.5 | |
| Republican | Brian Miller (withdrawn) | 6,613 | 7.4 | |
| Republican | Jay Quick | 1,933 | 2.2 | |
| Republican | Andy Goss (withdrawn) | 502 | 0.6 | |
| Total votes | 89,211 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Steven Stoltz | 482 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 482 | 100.0 | ||
Prior to Giffords win in 2006, the seat had been held by Republicans since 1985 under moderate Jim Kolbe.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Gabrielle Giffords (D) |
Jesse Kelly (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Action Forum[73] | August 25–29, 2010 | 400 (LV) | ±4.9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[18] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[20] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[21] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[22] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[22] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords (incumbent) | 138,280 | 48.8 | |
| Republican | Jesse Kelly | 134,124 | 47.3 | |
| Libertarian | Steven Stoltz | 11,174 | 3.9 | |
| Majority | 4,156 | 1.5 | ||
| Total votes | 283,578 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
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