Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In the run up to the 2024 Belgian federal election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Belgium. The results of nationwide polls are usually numerically split into the three Belgian regions: Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia. Federal seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives are presented together under these regional polls. The federal election was part of a group of elections which also include the regional elections and the European elections held on the same day. Some polls might be undefined voting intentions without differentiating between the elections.
Flanders
Summarize
Perspective
Federal
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The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region.
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | N‑VA | VB | cd&v | Open Vld | Vooruit | Groen | PVDA | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. | Blank/ no vote/ no answer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 June 2024 | Federal election[1] | 25.6% | 21.8% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 42.1% | 57.9% | |||
| 3 – 4 June 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[2] | 2,000 | 21.0% | 25.8% | 12.3% | 7.0% | 15.6% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 41.0% | 59.0% | |
| 28 – 31 May 2024 | Cluster17 | RTL[3] | 1,140 | 19.6% | 27.2% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 41.1% | 58.2% | |
| 14 – 20 May 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] | 2,000 | 20.6% | 26.8% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 6.2% | 41.3% | 58.7% | |
| 8 - 18 Apr 2024 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique / RTBF[5] | 1016 | 20.9% | 26.0% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 39.5% | 60.5% | |
| 11 – 18 Mar 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] | 1,000 | 20.4% | 27.4% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 40.6% | 59.4% | |
| 22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 | Kantar | Knack / Le Vif[7] | 1,077 | 20.6% | 25.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 1.1% | 4.9% | 41.8% | 58.2% | |
| 9 – 22 Jan 2024 | iVox | Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL[8] | 2,000 | 22.7% | 26.6% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 42.6% | 57.4% | |
| 4 – 11 Dec 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[9] | 1,000 | 22.0% | 25.1% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 41.8% | 58.2% | |
| 23 Nov – 28 Nov 2023 | iVox | Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL[10] | 1,000 | 22.0% | 26.5% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 41.7% | 58.3% | |
| 10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique / RTBF[11] | 566 | 20.4% | 23.3% | 13.9% | 7.9% | 16.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 46.1% | 53.9% | |
| 18 – 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] | 1,000 | 20.2% | 25.8% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 15.4% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 42.2% | 57.8% | 7% |
| 29 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] | 1,000 | 21.8% | 22.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 43.4% | 56.6% | |
| 20 – 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[14] | 1,000 | 21.6% | 25.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 43.9% | 56.1% | |
| 16 – 29 Jan 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique[15] | 514 | 21.5% | 24.8% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 46.9% | 53.1% | |
| 21 – 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[16] | 1,001 | 22.0% | 25.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 16.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 43.7% | 56.3% | |
| 7 – 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] | 1,000 | 21.5% | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 46.4% | 53.6% | |
| 6 – 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] | 1,008 | 24.9% | 22.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 42.2% | 57.8% | |
| 15 – 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] | 1,007 | 23.4% | 22.2% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 43.7% | 56.3% | |
| 1 – 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[20] | 988 | 21.6% | 24.5% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 43.3% | 56.7% | |
| 7 – 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[21] | 1,000 | 21.2% | 23.6% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
| 25 May – 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] | 1,002 | 21.8% | 26.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 42.3% | 57.7% | |
| 29 Mar – 19 Apr 2021 | TNS | VRT / De Standaard[23] | 1,908 | 21.5% | 24.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 44.4% | 55.5% | |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[24] | 1,006 | 20.0% | 23.6% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 46.6% | 53.4% | |
| 2 – 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[25] | 1,007 | 19.9% | 26.3% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 6.4% | 46.1% | 53.9% | |
| 2 – 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[26] | 1,001 | 22.2% | 27.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 4.9% | 42.8% | 57.2% | |
| 1 Oct 2020 | De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone) | ||||||||||||||
| 10 – 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[27] | 951 | 20.0% | 27.7% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 7.7% | 43.7% | 56.3% | |
| 9 – 28 Apr 2020 | TNS | VRT / De Standaard[28] | 2,040 | 20.3% | 24.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 45.6% | 54.4% | |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen[29] | 958 | 20.7% | 28.0% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 40.4% | 59.6% | |
| 29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[30] | 999 | 22.1% | 27.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 1.3% | 5.2% | 40.9% | 59.1% | |
| 2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[31] | 1,000 | 22.7% | 24.9% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 44.4% | 55.6% | |
| 26 May 2019 | Federal election | 25.5% | 18.6% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 48.3% | 51.6% | |||
Regional
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | N‑VA | VB | cd&v | Open Vld | Vooruit | Groen | PVDA | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. | Blank/ no vote/ no answer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr – 3 May 2024 | iVox | OVV[32] | 1,579 | 21.4% | 26.3% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 4.9% | 41.9% | 58.1% | |
| 8 – 22 Jan 2024 | Kantar | VRT / De Standaard[33] | 2,029 | 18.9% | 27.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 0.5% | 8.9% | 39.2% | 60.8% | 10.1% |
| 23 Nov – 28 Nov 2023 | iVox | Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL[34] | 1,000 | 21.3% | 27.5% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 0.9% | 6.2% | 42.9% | 57.1% | |
| 13 – 23 Mar 2023 | VUB, UA | VRT / De Standaard[35] | 2,092 | 21.0% | 24.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 39.5% | 60.5% | |
| 14 – 31 Mar 2022 | VUB, UA | VRT / De Standaard[36] | 2,064 | 22.4% | 22.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 41.3% | 58.7% | |
| 26 May 2019 | Regional election | 24.8% | 18.5% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 6.3% | 53.3% | 46.7% | |||
Wallonia
Summarize
Perspective
The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region.
.svg)
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | PS | MR | Ecolo | PTB | LE | DéFI | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 – 31 May 2024 | Cluster17 | RTL[3] | 1,000 | 23.9% | 23.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 17.9% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 0.9% | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 14 – 20 May 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] | 1,000 | 22.6% | 22.6% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 18.1% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 8 - 18 Apr 2024 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique, RTBF[5] | 1004 | 25.4% | 20.8% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 13.9% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 11 – 18 Mar 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] | 1,000 | 21.3% | 20.5% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 0.8% | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 | Kantar | Knack / Le Vif[7] | 1,004 | 24.3% | 19.9% | 13.8% | 18.4% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 4 – 11 Dec 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[9] | 1,000 | 23.9% | 20.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 3.9% | 10.4%[nb 1] | 3.9% | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique, RTBF[11] | 436 | 27.2% | 20.6% | 11.6% | 19.2% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 59.4% | 41.6% |
| 18 – 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] | 1,000 | 21.8% | 19.7% | 14.9% | 19.8% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 7.3%[nb 2] | 2.0% | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 29 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] | 1,000 | 25.7% | 19.8% | 12.7% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 20 – 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[14] | 1,000 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 16 – 29 Jan 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique[15] | 502 | 25.8% | 19.7% | 11.3% | 20.1% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 21 – 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[16] | 1,002 | 23.7% | 20.4% | 13.1% | 17.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 7 – 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] | 1,002 | 22.9% | 22.0% | 13.6% | 18.4% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 6 – 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] | 1,008 | 25.3% | 19.2% | 14.4% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 15 – 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] | 1,009 | 22.4% | 20.1% | 15.0% | 19.7% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 57.7% | 42.5% |
| 1 – 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[20] | 961 | 24.9% | 22.3% | 15.5% | 18.2% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 7 – 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[21] | 930 | 21.4% | 20.3% | 16.7% | 18.7% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 25 May – 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] | 992 | 24.0% | 18.7% | 15.0% | 19.1% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[38] | 958 | 22.8% | 20.1% | 16.4% | 19.0% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 2 – 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[39] | 995 | 23.2% | 20.6% | 15.6% | 17.2% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 2 – 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[26] | 1,001 | 21.1% | 19.2% | 17.8% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 9.5% | 1.9% | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 1 Oct 2020 | De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone) | ||||||||||||
| 10 – 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[27] | 986 | 23.7% | 20.5% | 15.1% | 18.7% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen[29] | 974 | 25.5% | 19.6% | 15.5% | 18.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[30] | 983 | 23.8% | 20.5% | 17.2% | 16.5% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[31] | 992 | 22.9% | 22.6% | 16.2% | 15.5% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 0.3% | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 26 May 2019 | Federal election | 26.1% | 20.5% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 9.9% [nb 3] | 5.6% | 61.5% | 38.5% | ||
Brussels
Summarize
Perspective
The graph and the table below show polling results in the Brussels Region (which may be part of a larger, nationwide poll). In September 2022, only polling results for Francophone parties were published for polls conducted for VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir.
.svg)
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | Ecolo | PS | MR | PTB- PVDA |
DéFI | LE | N‑VA | Open Vld | VB | cd&v | Groen | Vooruit | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 – 31 May 2024 | Cluster17 | RTL[3] | 501 | 11.6% | 15.0% | 22.9% | 19.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | ||||||||
| 14 – 20 May 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] | 600 | 12.5% | 15.2% | 23.3% | 19.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 3.5% | |||||||||
| 8 - 18 Apr 2024 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique, RTBF[5] | 807 | 15.5% | 14.2% | 22.9% | 15.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 7.4% | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 11 – 18 Mar 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] | 600 | 14.7% | 15.4% | 21.8% | 17.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 | Kantar | Knack / Le Vif[7] | 600 | 14.2% | 13.5% | 17.9% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 4 – 11 Dec 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[9] | 600 | 16.8% | 15.7% | 18.1% | 19.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique, RTBF[11] | 545 | 13.0% | 18.8% | 19.7% | 16.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 18 – 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] | 600 | 17.9% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 15.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 29 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] | 600 | 18.1% | 18.6% | 19.9% | 17.6% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 20 – 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[40] | 600 | 15.7% | 16.8% | 19.8% | 19.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 16 – 29 Jan 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique[15] | 493 | 16.0% | 18.0% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 21 – 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[40] | 601 | 13.0% | 21.6% | 20.3% | 16.1% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| 7 – 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] | 600 | 15.8% | 22.7% | 21.2% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | |||||||||
| 6 – 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] | 536 | 18.0% | 19.1% | 22.0% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 15 – 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] | 485 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 19.9% | 16.4% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 1 – 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[41] | 485 | 19.3% | 15.1% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 7 – 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[42] | 485 | 19.1% | 18.6% | 18.5% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 62.5% | 37.7% |
| 25 May – 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] | 523 | 18.0% | 17.6% | 17.9% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[38] | 557 | 18.2% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 2 – 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[39] | 533 | 19.5% | 16.8% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 2 – 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[26] | 593 | 21.6% | 19.1% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 1 October 2020 | De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 10 – 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[27] | 580 | 19.1% | 18.2% | 17.4% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[29] | 531 | 20.3% | 20.5% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 0.2% | 63% | 37% |
| 29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[30] | 526 | 19.7% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[31] | 548 | 21.4% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 26 May 2019 | Federal election[43] | 21.6% | 20.0% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | Ecolo | PS | 4.3% [nb 3] | 1.6% | 62.7% | 37.3% | ||
Seat projections
Summarize
Perspective
The graph and table below shows seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives according to a reporting newspaper or polling firm.
.svg)
By party
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publishers | N‑VA | PS | VB | MR | Ecolo | cd&v | Open Vld |
PVDA- PTB |
Vooruit | Groen | LE | DéFI | Others | Lead | Gov. | Opp. | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 June 2024 | Federal election | 24 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 76 | 74 | 1 | |
| 28 – 31 May 2024 | Cluster17 | RTL[3] | 20 | 18 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 73 | 77 | 4 |
| 14 – 20 May 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[44][under discussion] | 20 | 16 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 72 | 78 | 6 |
| 8 - 18 Apr 2024 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique / RTBF[45] | 19 | 18 | 26 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 75 | 75 | 0 |
| 11 – 18 Mar 2024 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[46][under discussion] | 20 | 16 | 27 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 72 | 78 | 6 |
| 22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 | Kantar | Knack / Le Vif[47] | 19 | 16 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 73 | 4 |
| 4 – 11 Dec 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[48] | 21 | 18 | 25 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 75 | 75 | 0 |
| 10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 | Kantar | La Libre Belgique[49] | 21 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 69 | 13 |
| 18 – 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[50] | 19 | 16 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 76 | 74 | 2 |
| 29 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[51] | 20 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 82 | 68 | 14 |
| 20 – 27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[40] | 20 | 20 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 83 | 67 | 16 |
| 16 – 29 Jan 2023 | 3rd party analysis based on Kantar | La Libre Belgique[52] | 21 | 19 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 82 | 68 | 14 |
| 21 – 29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[16] | 20 | 19 | 25 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 80 | 70 | 10 |
| 7 – 13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] | 20 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 65 | 20 |
| 6 – 14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] | 25 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 78 | 72 | 6 |
| 15 – 22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] | 23 | 17 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 79 | 71 | 8 |
| 1 – 8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[53] | 20 | 17 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 80 | 70 | 10 |
| 7 – 14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[54] | 20 | 16 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 84 | 66 | 18 |
| 25 May – 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[55] | 20 | 18 | 25 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 81 | 69 | 12 |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[56] | 20 | 16 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 83 | 67 | 16 |
| 2 – 8 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[57] | 20 | 17 | 25 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 81 | 69 | 12 |
| 2 – 8 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[58][59] | 21 | 17 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 82 | 68 | 14 |
| 10 – 15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[60] | 20 | 19 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 81 | 69 | 12 |
| 4 – 9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[61] | 19 | 19 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 80 | 70 | 10 |
| 29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[62] | 20 | 18 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 78 | 72 | 6 |
| 2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[63] | 21 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 84 | 66 | 18 |
| 26 May 2019 | Federal election | 25 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 88 | 62 | 26 | |
By political family
Below are tallies for each ideological 'group' as well as probable coalitions. In bold on dark grey, if the coalition commands an absolute majority.
Note that "asymetrical" coalitions are now frequent: between 2007 and 2011, PS was part of each cabinet but not sp.a (Vooruit); and between 2014 and 2018, the Michel Government included cd&v but not cdH (LE), as well as the N-VA, of which there is no equivalent in Wallonia.
Coalition seat projections
.svg)
Political family seat projections
.svg)
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling firm |
Ideologies | Coalitions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Far-left | Greens | Soc- Dems |
Soc Libs | Libs | Chr Dems [nb 4] | Flemish Nation-alist | Far-right | Left- wing |
Big Olive Tree | Olive Tree | Purple- Green [nb 5] |
Vivaldi (+ LE) | National Unity | Tri-partite | Arizona | Sunset | Purple-Yellow | Swedish + LE [nb 6] |
Centre- right |
Right- wing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 June 2024 | Federal Elections |
15 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 53 | 81 | 63 | 65 | 76 (90) | 114 | 81 | 105 | 78 | 80 | 76 | 96 | 71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 - 20 May 2024 | Ipsos | 19 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 56 | 78 | 59 | 62 | 72 (84) | 104 | 75 | 95 | 70 | 73 | 67 | 93 | 71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 - 18 Apr 2024 | Kantar | 20 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 25 | 19 | 19 | 26 | 60 | 79 | 59 | 65 | 75 (84) | 103 | 72 | 91 | 66 | 72 | 63 | 89 | 70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 – 18 Mar 2024 | Ipsos | 19 | 14 | 26 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 27 | 59 | 80 | 61 | 61 | 72 (82) | 102 | 68 | 87 | 67 | 67 | 62 | 89 | 68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 | Kantar | 21 | 17 | 29 | 1 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 25 | 67 | 84 | 63 | 67 | 77 (84) | 103 | 67 | 86 | 65 | 69 | 57 | 82 | 65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 – 11 Dec 2023 | Ipsos | 19 | 17 | 29 | 2 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 65 | 83 | 64 | 65 | 75 (83) | 104 | 66 | 87 | 68 | 69 | 58 | 83 | 65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 | Kantar | 20 | 15 | 35 | 1 | 22 | 15 | 21 | 21 | 70 | 85 | 65 | 72 | 82 (87) | 108 | 72 | 93 | 71 | 78 | 58 | 79 | 64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 – 25 Sep 2023 | Ipsos | 20 | 14 | 30 | 1 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 26 | 64 | 82 | 62 | 66 | 76 (84) | 103 | 70 | 89 | 67 | 71 | 59 | 85 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 29 May – 6 Jun 2023 | Ipsos | 21 | 15 | 36 | 1 | 21 | 14 | 20 | 22 | 72 | 86 | 65 | 72 | 82 (86) | 106 | 71 | 91 | 70 | 77 | 55 | 77 | 63 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20–27 Mar 2023 | Ipsos | 18 | 15 | 34 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 67 | 82 | 64 | 71 | 81 (86) | 106 | 71 | 91 | 69 | 76 | 57 | 81 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16–29 Jan 2023 | 3rd party analysis based on Kantar | 17 | 19 | 33 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 21 | 24 | 69 | 79 | 62 | 76 | 82 (86) | 107 | 67 | 88 | 64 | 78 | 55 | 79 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21–29 Nov 2022 | Ipsos | 18 | 16 | 34 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 68 | 81 | 63 | 72 | 80 (85) | 105 | 69 | 89 | 67 | 76 | 55 | 80 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7–13 Sep 2022 | Ipsos | 18 | 17 | 33 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 20 | 20 | 68 | 81 | 63 | 76 | 85 (89) | 109 | 72 | 92 | 66 | 79 | 59 | 79 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6–14 Jun 2022 | Ipsos | 20 | 16 | 31 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 25 | 21 | 67 | 80 | 60 | 69 | 78 (82) | 107 | 66 | 91 | 69 | 78 | 60 | 81 | 68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15–22 Mar 2022 | Ipsos | 21 | 18 | 29 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 23 | 21 | 68 | 82 | 61 | 69 | 79 (83) | 106 | 65 | 88 | 66 | 74 | 59 | 80 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1–8 Dec 2021 | Ipsos | 19 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 64 | 79 | 60 | 70 | 80 (85) | 105 | 68 | 88 | 63 | 73 | 60 | 84 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7–14 Sep 2021 | Ipsos | 18 | 22 | 26 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 66 | 81 | 63 | 73 | 84 (88) | 108 | 66 | 86 | 61 | 71 | 60 | 82 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 May – 1 Jun 2021 | Ipsos | 17 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 20 | 25 | 65 | 79 | 62 | 72 | 81 (86) | 106 | 67 | 87 | 63 | 73 | 58 | 83 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4–9 Mar 2021 | Ipsos | 19 | 19 | 27 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 65 | 80 | 61 | 72 | 83 (87) | 107 | 68 | 88 | 62 | 73 | 61 | 83 | 68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2–10 Dec 2020 | Ipsos | 17 | 17 | 29 | 2 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 63 | 78 | 61 | 71 | 81 (86) | 106 | 69 | 89 | 64 | 74 | 60 | 85 | 70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2–10 Oct 2020 | Ipsos | 16 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 21 | 25 | 64 | 78 | 62 | 71 | 82 (86) | 107 | 67 | 88 | 64 | 74 | 59 | 84 | 70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10–15 Jun 2020 | Ipsos | 17 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 65 | 79 | 62 | 71 | 81 (85) | 105 | 66 | 86 | 63 | 72 | 57 | 83 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4–9 Mar 2020 | Ipsos | 19 | 21 | 26 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 66 | 80 | 61 | 70 | 80 (84) | 105 | 63 | 82 | 66 | 68 | 56 | 82 | 68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 | ESOMAR | 18 | 22 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 20 | 27 | 64 | 79 | 61 | 68 | 78 (83) | 105 | 61 | 81 | 59 | 66 | 57 | 84 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2–10 Sep 2019 | ESOMAR | 14 | 22 | 23 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 21 | 25 | 59 | 74 | 60 | 73 | 84 (88) | 109 | 66 | 86 | 59 | 72 | 67 | 89 | 74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26 May 2019 | Federal Elections |
12 | 21 | 29 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 25 | 18 | 62 | 79 | 67 | 76 | 88 (93) | 120 | 72 | 97 | 71 | 80 | 68 | 86 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Parliament election
Dutch-speaking
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm | Publisher | Sample size | N‑VA ECR |
VB ID |
Open Vld Renew |
cd&v EPP |
Groen G/EFA |
Vooruit S&D |
PVDA Left |
Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb – 5 Mar 2024 | Ipsos | Euronews[64] | 1,500 | 18.7% 3 |
23.5% 3 |
12.7% 2 |
11.5% 1 |
9.7% 1 |
13.8% 2 |
9.3% 1 |
0.8% 0 |
4.8% |
| 26 May 2019 | European election | 22.4% 3 |
19.1% 3 |
15.9% 2 |
14.5% 2 |
12.4% 1 |
10.2% 1 |
4.9% 0 |
0.5% 0 |
3.3% | ||
French-speaking
See also
Notes
- Includes the People's Party, which dissolved in June 2019 after the elections
- Example of a Purple-Green coalition: Verhofstadt I Government
- Example of a Swedish coalition: Michel I Government
References
Wikiwand - on
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