In total, six Republicans and three Democrats were elected.[8] A total of 1,920,675 votes were cast, of which 1,103,290 (57.44 percent) were for Republican candidates, 708,064 (36.87 percent) were for Democratic candidates, 92,485 (4.81 percent) were for Libertarian Party candidates, 8,759 (0.46 percent) were for Constitution Party candidates, 7,193 (0.37 percent) were for an independent candidate and 884 (0.05 percent) were for write-in candidates.[9]
Overview
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri by district:[10]
Democrat William Lacy Clay, Jr., who took office in 2001, was the incumbent. Clay was re-elected in 2008 with 87 percent of the vote.[11] In 2010 Clay's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Robyn Hamlin, an insurance agent.[13]Libertarian Party nominee Julie Stone also ran.[14] Candice Britton also sought the Democratic nomination.[15] Martin Baker and Marshall Works also sought the Republican nomination. Robb Cunningham also sought the Libertarian nomination.[12]
Clay raised $693,370 and spent $635,944. Hamlin raised $23,930 and spent $24,012.[16] Britton raised $1,813 and spent $2,026.[17]
Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Clay a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 74 percent of the vote to Hamlin's 23 percent.[18] On election day Clay was re-elected with 74 percent of the vote to Hamlin's 24 percent.[19] Clay was re-elected in 2012, again over Hamlin,[20] and in 2014.[21]
Republican Todd Akin, who took office in 2001, was the incumbent. Akin was re-elected in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote.[22] In 2010 Akin's opponent in the general election was Democratic nominee Arthur Lieber, the co-founder of the Crossroads College Preparatory School.[24]Libertarian Party nominee Steve Mosbacher also ran.[25] Bill Haas and Jeffrey Lowe also sought the Republican nomination.[26] Liz Lauber, a government and industry relations communications consultant for Wells Fargo, ended her campaign for the Republican nomination in April 2010.[27] Lieber was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.[28]
Akin raised $767,798 and spent $825,668. Lieber raised $50,504 and spent $49,234.[29] Haas raised $33,372 and spent $13,449.[30] Lauber raised $6,724 and spent the same amount.[31]
Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Akin a 100 percent chance of winning, and projected that he would receive 68 percent of the vote to Lieber's 29 percent.[32] On election day Akin was re-elected with 68 percent of the vote to Lieber's 29 percent.[19] In 2011 Lieber wrote and published a book about his campaign entitled An Unlikely Candidate: Reflections on My Run for Office.[28] Akin unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Senate in 2012.[33] He was succeeded by Republican Ann Wagner.[34]
Carnahan raised $2,127,173 and spent $2,276,619. Martin raised $1,539,980 and spent $1,514,663.[41] Arnold raised $907 and spent $904.[42] Tucker raised $9,125 and spent $9,124.[43]
A poll of 400 likely voters, conducted by Ayres, McHenry & Associates on August 16, 17 and 20, 2010, found Carnahan leading with 54 percent to Martin's 38 percent, while 8 percent were undecided.[44] In a poll of 1,089 registered voters, conducted on August 17, 2010, by We Ask America, found Carnahan leading with 48 percent to Martin's 39 percent, while 13 percent were undecided.[45]Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race as "Likely Democratic".[5] In October 2010, The Cook Political Report rated the race as "Lean Democratic"[2] and CQ Politics rated the race as "Likely Democratic".[3] In November 2010 The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race as "Democrat Favored".[4] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Carnahan a 96 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 55 percent of the vote to Martin's 43 percent.[46]
On election day Carnahan was re-elected with 49 percent of the vote to Martin's 47 percent.[19] Martin conceded on November 8.[47] Carnahan unsuccessfully sought re-election in 2012.[48] The same year Martin unsuccessfully ran for Missouri Attorney General.[49]
Democrat Ike Skelton, who took office in 1977, was the incumbent. Skelton was re-elected in 2008 with 66 percent of the vote.[50] In 2010 Skelton's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Vicky Hartzler, a former member of the Missouri General Assembly.[52]Constitution Party nominee Greg Cowan and Libertarian Party nominee Jason Michael Braun also ran.[53] Leonard Steinman, a salvage dealer and perennial candidate, also sought the Democratic nomination.[54] Brian Clark; Arthur Madden; Eric McElroy; Jeff Parnell; Brian Riley; James Scholz;[51]Bill Stouffer, a member of the Missouri Senate; and Roy Viessman, a former member of the Jefferson City Council,[55] also sought the Republican nomination. Thomas Holbrook also sought the Libertarian nomination.[51]
Skelton raised $2,923,038 and spent $3,107,552. Hartzler raised $1,373,530 and spent $1,351,176. Cowan raised $1,369 and spent $2,320.[56] Madden raised $19,596 and spent the same amount.[57] Riley raised $44,655 and spent $44,654.[58] Scholz raised $31,208 and spent $31,081.[59] Stouffer raised $464,174 and spent $460,777.[60]
In a poll of 1,207 registered voters, conducted by We Ask America on August 17, 2010, Skelton led with 45 percent to Hartzler's 42 percent, while 13 percent were undecided.[45] A poll of 187 registered voters, conducted by KY3 and Missouri State University (MSU) between August 7 and 22, 2010, found 47 percent supported Skelton while 35 percent favored Hartzler and 2 percent were undecided.[61] In a poll of 300 likely voters, conducted in October 2010 by Wilson Research Strategies, Hartzler and Skelton were tied with 42 percent apiece.[62] A poll of 159 likely voters, conducted by MSU's Center for Social Sciences and Policy Research between October 20 and 27, 2010, found Skelton led with 46 percent to Hartzler's 39 percent, while 14 percent were undecided and 2 percent supported other candidates.[63]
On election day Hartzler was elected with 50 percent of the vote to Skelton's 45 percent.[19] Hartzler was re-elected in 2012[65] and 2014.[66] Skelton died in October 2013.[67]
Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who took office in 2005, was the incumbent. Cleaver was re-elected in 2008 with 64 percent of the vote.[68] In 2010 Cleaver's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Jacob Turk, who also ran in 2006 and 2008.[70]Constitution Party nominee Dave Lay and Libertarian Party nominee Randall D. Langkraehr also ran. Jerry Fowler; Patrick Haake;[69] Ron Shawd, a former car dealer;[71] and Ralph Sheffield also sought the Republican nomination. Cleaver was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.[69]
Cleaver raised $637,380 and spent $607,575. Turk raised $274,423 and spent $258,627.[72] In a poll of 500 likely voters, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research (a service run by Rasmussen Reports), found 52 percent supported Cleaver while 43 percent backed Turk.[73]FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Cleaver a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 59 percent of the vote to Turk's 39 percent.[74] On election day Cleaver was re-elected with 53 percent of the vote to Turk's 44 percent.[19] Cleaver was re-elected, again over Turk, in 2012[75] and 2014.[76]
Republican Sam Graves, who took office in 2001, was the incumbent. In 2010 Graves's opponent in the general election was Democratic nominee Clint Hylton,[79] an insurance salesman.[80]Write-in candidate Kyle Yarber also ran.[81] Christopher Ryan also sought the Republican nomination.[78] Hylton was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.[79]
Graves raised $1,057,245 and spent $1,071,726. Hylton raised $9,461 and spent $9,394. Yarber raised $16,602 and spent $16,601.[82]
Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Graves a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 66 percent of the vote to Hylton's 31 percent.[83] On election day Graves was re-elected with 69 percent of the vote to Hylton's 31 percent.[19] Graves was again re-elected in 2012[84] and 2014.[85]
Republican Roy Blunt, who took office in 1997, was the incumbent. Blunt, the father of Governor Matt Blunt, was re-elected in 2008 with 68 percent of the vote.[86] In 2010 he ran for the U.S. Senate rather than seeking re-election.[8]
The candidates in the general election were Republican nominee Billy Long, an auctioneer;[88] and Democratic nominee Scott Eckersley, an attorney who previously worked for Governor Blunt.[89]Libertarian Party nominee Kevin Craig and write-in candidate Nicholas Ladendorf also ran.[90]
Long raised $1,260,007 and spent $1,230,604. Eckersley raised $186,310 and spent the same amount.[93] Goodman raised $482,233 and spent $478,534.[94] Moon raised $25,279 and spent $25,278.[95] Moore raised $45,424 and spent $44,977.[96] Nodler raised $383,130 and spent $380,240.[97] Wisdom raised $20,101 and spent $20,080.[98] Davis raised $24,119 and spent $22,928.[99]
In a poll of 198 registered voters, conducted by KY3 and Missouri State University (MSU) between August 7 and August 22, 2010, Long led with 51 percent to Eckersley's 23 percent.[61] A poll of 199 likely voters, conducted by MSU's Center for Social Sciences and Public olicy Research between October 20 and 27, 2010, found Long leading with 56 percent to Eckersley's 23 percent while 7 percent supported Craig, 1 percent favored other candidates, and 13 percent were undecided.[63] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Long a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 69 percent of the vote to Eckersley's 28 percent.[100] Eckersley increased his share of the voting to more than 30 percent, but Long was elected with 63 percent of the vote.[19] Long was re-elected in 2012[84] and 2014.[101]
On October 29, 2010, an email was sent to local media, purportedly by Eckersley, which falsely claimed that he had ended his campaign. At least one television station inaccurately reported the story as fact. Eckersley later filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) alleging that Long may have been involved in the hoax. The FEC investigated and reported in 2013 that the emails had come from Patrick Binning, a political consultant, and that Binning had acted independently of Long's campaign. As the FEC found no evidence that Long's campaign or the Republican Party was involved, under the law electoral fraud had not occurred.[102]
Emerson raised $2,006,543 and spent $2,071,160. Sowers raised $1,588,389 and spent $1,572,930. Bill raised $15,630 and spent the same amount.[110] Parker raised $38,565 and spent $37,472.[111]
In a poll of 400 likely voters, conducted on April 19 and 20, 2010, by American Viewpoint (AV) for Emerson's campaign, Emerson led with 71 percent to Sowers's 18 percent.[112] A poll of 171 registered voters, conducted by KY3 and Missouri State University between August 7 and 22, 2010, found Emerson leading with 64 percent to Sowers's 17 percent while 3 percent supported other candidates.[61] An AV poll of 400 likely voters, conducted on September 13 and 14, 2010, found Emerson had the support of 63 percent while 24 percent backed Sowers.[113]
Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Emerson a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that she would receive 68 percent of the vote to Sowers's 29 percent.[114] On election day Emerson was re-elected with 66 percent of the vote to Sowers's 29 percent.[19] Emerson was again re-elected in 2012[84] and resigned from Congress in January 2013.[115] She was succeeded by Jason T. Smith.[116] In August 2012 Sowers was confirmed as Assistant Secretary for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs at the Department of Veterans Affairs.[117]
Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer, who took office in 2009, was the incumbent. Luetkemeyer was elected with 50 percent of the vote in 2008.[118] In 2010 Luetkemeyer's opponent in the general election was Libertarian Party nominee Christopher Dwyer.[120] The 2010 election in the 9th district marked the first time since 1984 that a U.S. Representative from Missouri ran unopposed in the general election.[121] Ron Burrus and Jeff Reed also ran as write-in candidates.[120] James O. Baker also sought the Republican nomination. Steven Wilson also sought the Libertarian nomination.[121]
Luetkemeyer raised $1,358,842 and spent $737,857.[122] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Luetkemeyer a 100 percent chance of winning.[123] On election day Luetkemeyer was re-elected with 77 percent of the vote to Dwyer's 22 percent.[19] Luetkemeyer was again re-elected in 2012[124] and 2014.[125]
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