2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st governor of Minnesota, as incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was U.S. Representative Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district, while the Republican Party nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson for a second consecutive time. The Independence Party of Minnesota did not field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election polls showed Walz ahead; the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.
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| Turnout | 2,587,287 (63.6%)[a] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Walz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Johnson: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986, receiving more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota history. This was the first Minnesota gubernatorial election since 1958 in which any party won more than two consecutive elections, as well as the first time since 1998 where the party of the incumbent president lost.
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary
Summarize
Perspective
Candidates
Nominated
- Tim Walz, U.S. representative[2]
- Running mate: Peggy Flanagan, state representative[3]
Eliminated in primary
- Tim Holden,[4] real estate investor and candidate for mayor of Saint Paul in 2017[5]
- Running mate: James P. Mellin II
- Erin Murphy, State Representative[6]
- Running mate: Erin Maye Quade, State Representative[7]
- Olé Savior, perennial candidate[4]
- Running mate: Chris Edman
- Lori Swanson, Attorney General of Minnesota
- Running mate: Rick Nolan, U.S. representative[8]
Withdrawn
- Chris Coleman, former mayor of Saint Paul[9][10]
- Tina Liebling, State Representative[11][12]
- Rebecca Otto, Minnesota State Auditor[13]
- Running mate: Zarina Baber, IT professional
- Paul Thissen, state representative, former House Minority Leader, and former Speaker of the House[14][15]
Declined
- Tom Bakk, Minority Leader of the Minnesota Senate and candidate for governor in 2010[16][17][18]
- Mark Dayton, incumbent governor[19][20]
- Debra Hilstrom, state representative and candidate for Secretary of State in 2014 (running for Minnesota Attorney General)[21][22]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (running for re-election)[23]
- Rick Nolan, U.S. representative[24] (running for Lieutenant Governor)
- R. T. Rybak, former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, former mayor of Minneapolis and candidate for governor in 2010[25][26][27]
- Tina Smith, U.S. senator (running for re-election)[16][28][29]
Endorsements
Erin Murphy (DFL)
- Organizations
- Labor unions
- State elected officials
- Susan Allen, state representative
- David Bly, state representative
- Lyndon Carlson, state representative
- Karen Clark, state representative
- Mark Dayton, governor of Minnesota
- Raymond Dehn, state representative
- Chris Eaton, state senator
- Melisa Franzen, state senator[32]
- Mike Freiberg, state representative[32]
- Joan Growe, former Minnesota secretary of state
- Frank Hornstein, state representative
- Matt Klein, state senator
- Erin Koegel, state representative
- Mary Kunesh-Podein, state representative
- Carolyn Laine, state senator
- Diane Loeffler, state representative
- Becky Lourey, former state senator
- Tim Mahoney, state representative
- Carlos Mariani, state representative
- John Marty, state senator
- Sandra Masin, state representative
- Rena Moran, state representative
- Liz Olson, state representative
- Ilhan Omar, state representative
- Sandy Pappas, state senator
- Erin Maye Quade, state representative
- Ann Rest, state senator
- Mary Sawatzky, former state representative
- Jennifer Schultz, state representative
Erik Simonson, state senator- Linda Slocum, state representative
- Yvonne Prettner Solon, former Minnesota lieutenant governor and former state senator
- JoAnn Ward, state representative
- Local officials
- Lisa Bender, Minneapolis City Council president
- Alondra Cano, Minneapolis City Council
- Melvin Carter, mayor of Saint Paul
- John Choi, Ramsey County Attorney
- Phillipe Cunningham, Minneapolis City Council
- Jeremiah Ellison, Minneapolis City Council
- Andrea Jenkins, Minneapolis City Council
- Emily Larson, mayor of Duluth
- Mary Jo McGuire, Ramsey County commissioner
- Gene Short, Currie City Council
- National organizations
Rebecca Otto (DFL)
- State officials
- Tina Liebling, state representative, former 2018 gubernatorial candidate
- Individuals
- Khizr Khan, Gold Star father
Lori Swanson (DFL)
- Federal politicians
- Rick Nolan, U.S. representative and candidate for lieutenant governor on the same ticket
- State elected officials
- Tom Bakk, state senator and minority leader
- David Tomassoni, state senator
- Newspapers
- International Falls Journal (primary)
- Mesabi Daily News (primary)
- Unions
- Teamsters, Local 120
Tim Walz (DFL)
- Federal politicians
- Max Cleland, former U.S. senator[34]
- Barney Frank, former U.S. representative
- Betty McCollum, U.S. representative
- Denis McDonough, former chief of staff to President Barack Obama
- Walter Mondale, former vice president, nominee for president in 1984, and former U.S. senator[35]
- Collin Peterson, U.S. representative[36]
- Mayors
- Ardell Brede, mayor of Rochester
- Jacob Frey, mayor of Minneapolis[37]
- R. T. Rybak, former mayor of Minneapolis[36]
- Nora Slawik, mayor of Maplewood
- Elwin Tinklenberg, former mayor of Blaine
- State elected officials
- Jamie Becker-Finn, state representative
- Karla Bigham, state senator
- Terri Bonoff, former state senator
- Robin Brown, former state representative
- Jim Carlson, state senator
- Greg Clausen, state senator
- Dick Cohen, state senator
- Jack Considine, state representative
- Kevin Dahle, former state senator
- John Dorn, former state representative
- Rob Ecklund, state representative
- Nick Frentz, state senator
- Patti Fritz, former state representative
- Foung Hawj, state senator
- Jeff Hayden, state senator
- Jason Isaacson, state senator
- Alice Johnson, former state senator
- Clark Johnson, state representative
- Ruth Johnson, former state representative
- Steve Kelley, former state senator
- Susan Kent, state senator
- Ron Latz, state senator
- Fue Lee, state representative[38]
- Leon Lillie, state representative
- Matt Little, state senator
- Tony Lourey, state senator
- Paul Marquart, state representative
- John Persell, former state representative
- Jeanne Poppe, state representative
- Roger Reinert, former state senator
- Mark Ritchie, former Minnesota secretary of state
- Sharon Ropes, former state senator
- Don Samuelson, former state senator
- Duane Sauke, state representative
- Tom Saxhaug, former state senator
- Matt Schmit, former state senator
- Yvonne Selcer, former state representative
- Kathy Sheran, former state senator
- Erik Simonson, state senator
- Rod Skoe, former state senator
- Loren Solberg, former state representative
- Dan Sparks, state senator
- Mike Sundin, state representative
- Ted Suss, former state representative
- Chuck Wiger, state senator
- Cheryl Youakim, state representative
- Individuals
- Wesley Clark, retired general, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, candidate for president of the United States in 2004[39]
- Judy Shepard, board president of Matthew Shepard Foundation, LGBT-rights activist
- Tribal nations
- Newspapers
- Duluth News Tribune[40] (DFL primary)
- Minneapolis Star Tribune[41] (DFL primary)
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[42]
- Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes
- Education Minnesota[43]
- IBEW – International Brotherhood of Electrical Engineers – Minnesota State Council
- International Union of Operating Engineers[44]
- Ironworkers Local 512 – International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers
- IUPAT Local 82 – International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- Laborers' International Union of North America[45]
- MAPE – Minnesota Association of Professional Employees[46]
- Minneapolis Firefighters Local 82 – International Association of Fire Fighters
- Minnesota Professional Firefighters – International Association of Fire Fighters
- Minnesota State Building & Construction Trades Council
- Minnesota State Council of Machinists – International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
- Roofers, Waterproofers & Allied Trades Local 96 – United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers
- SMART Sheet Metal Workers Local 10 – Sheet Metal Workers' International Association[47]
- SMART Transportation Division, UTU – United Transportation Union
- Teamsters Joint Council 32[48]
- UFCW Local 1189 – United Food and Commercial Workers
- United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America
- United Steelworkers
- Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Erin Murphy |
Lori Swanson |
Tim Walz |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | August 8–11, 2018 | 217 | ± 6.9% | 19% | 29% | 28% | – | 24% |
| Marist College[50] | July 15–19, 2018 | 439 | ± 5.6% | 11% | 28% | 24% | 1% | 37% |
| GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC)[51] | June 25–27, 2018 | 602 | – | 17% | 37% | 29% | 1%[52] | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Coleman |
Tina Liebling |
Erin Murphy |
Rebecca Otto |
Lori Swanson |
Paul Thissen |
Tim Walz |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[54] | January 8–10, 2018 | 298 | – | 12% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 4% | 21% | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Erin Murphy |
Rebecca Otto |
Tim Walz |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies (D-Walz)[55] | April 23–26, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 3% | 19% | 27% | 2% | 49% |
Hypothetical polling
Straw poll
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On February 6, 2018, the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn would elect state convention delegates who would endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates would endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll, the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).
| Congressional unit |
Total attendance |
Chris Coleman | Tina Liebling | Erin Murphy | Rebecca Otto | Paul Thissen | Tim Walz |
Other | Uncommitted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2,577 | 71 | 355 | 107 | 232 | 56 | 1,558 | 4 | 163 |
| 2 | 3,501 | 384 | 202 | 411 | 656 | 120 | 1,156 | 4 | 523 |
| 3 | 4,291 | 670 | 202 | 386 | 827 | 186 | 1,362 | 8 | 530 |
| 4 | 6,072 | 854 | 297 | 1,111 | 1,227 | 139 | 1,384 | 11 | 897 |
| 5 | 9,519 | 1,019 | 457 | 1,400 | 1,462 | 537 | 2,363 | 30 | 1,137 |
| 6 | 2,375 | 326 | 115 | 294 | 587 | 59 | 590 | 4 | 375 |
| 7 | 2,121 | 124 | 106 | 274 | 405 | 172 | 761 | 4 | 273 |
| 8 | 3,873 | 441 | 277 | 474 | 1,082 | 263 | 759 | 8 | 527 |
| Statewide | 34,329 | 3,889 | 2,011 | 4,457 | 6,478 | 1,532 | 9,933 | 73 | 4,425 |
| Percent | - | 11.86% | 6.13% | 13.59% | 19.75% | 4.67% | 30.29% | 0.22% | 13.49% |
Results
Results by county
Walz
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Murphy
- 40–50%
Swanson
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Results by congressional district
Walz
- 40–50%
- 70–80%
Murphy
- 40–50%
Swanson
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz | 242,832 | 41.60% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Erin Murphy | 186,969 | 32.03% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Lori Swanson | 143,517 | 24.59% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Tim Holden | 6,398 | 1.10% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Olé Savior | 4,019 | 0.69% | |
| Total votes | 583,735 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County Commissioner, former state representative, and nominee for governor in 2014[56]
- Running mate: Donna Bergstrom, retired Marine Corps intelligence officer[57]
Eliminated in primary
- Mathew Kruse[4]
- Running mate: Theresa Loeffler
- Tim Pawlenty, former governor and candidate for president of the United States in 2012[58]
- Running mate: Michelle Fischbach, incumbent lieutenant governor[59]
Withdrew
- Christopher Chamberlin[60][61] (running for MN-05)
- Matt Dean, state representative[62]
- Keith Downey, former chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota and former state representative[63][64]
- Blake Huffman, Ramsey County Commissioner[65][66]
- David Osmek, state senator[67]
- Phillip Parrish, Naval Reserve intelligence officer and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[68]
- Mary Giuliani Stephens, mayor of Woodbury[69][70]
- Running mate: Jeff Backer, state representative[71]
Declined
- Sarah Anderson, state representative[72]
- Michele Bachmann, former U.S. representative and candidate for president in 2012[73]
- Michelle Benson, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[28][74]
- Kurt Daudt, Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives (endorsed Pawlenty)[28][74]
- Tom Emmer, U.S. representative and nominee for governor in 2010[75] (running for re-election)[76]
- Karin Housley, state senator[74] (running for the U.S. Senate)[77]
- Amy Koch, former Majority Leader of the Minnesota Senate[78][79]
- Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow[80]
- Mike McFadden, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[28][74]
- Carla Nelson, state senator[81][82]
- Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative (running for re-election)[28][74][83]
- Julie Rosen, state senator (endorsed Pawlenty)[74][79]
- Rich Stanek, Hennepin County sheriff and former state representative (running for reelection)[28][84]
Endorsements
Tim Pawlenty
- State officials
- Josh Heintzeman, state representative[85]
- John Jasinski, state senator[86]
- Steve Sviggum, former Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives[87]
- Kurt Zellers, former Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives[87]
- Organizations
- Associated Builders and Contractors[88]
- Housing First Minnesota[89]
- Minnesota Chamber of Commerce[90]
- Minnesota College Republicans[91]
- Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis[92]
- Newspapers and publications
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Johnson |
Matt Kruse |
Tim Pawlenty |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | August 8–11, 2018 | 156 | ± 8.0% | 34% | – | 43% | – | 23% |
| Marist College[50] | July 15–19, 2018 | 340 | ± 6.4% | 32% | – | 51% | 1% | 16% |
| BK Strategies (R)[96] | June 24–25, 2018 | 439 | ± 4.7% | 20% | 3% | 54% | – | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kurt Daudt |
Matt Dean |
Keith Downey |
Jeff Johnson |
Julie Rosen |
Mary G. Stephens |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[54] | January 8–10, 2018 | 218 | – | 12% | 2% | 1% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 54% |
Hypothetical polling
Results
Results by county
Johnson
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Pawlenty
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Results by congressional district
Johnson
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Pawlenty
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Johnson | 168,841 | 52.61% | |
| Republican | Tim Pawlenty | 140,743 | 43.86% | |
| Republican | Mathew Kruse | 11,330 | 3.53% | |
| Total votes | 320,914 | 100.00% | ||
Third parties and independents
Candidates
Declared
- Josh Welter (Libertarian Party)[4]
- Chris Wright (Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis Party), Grassroots Party nominee for governor in 1998, 2010 and 2014[97][98]
General election
Summarize
Perspective
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[99] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[100] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[101] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[102] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[103] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[104] | Lean D | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[105] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[106][b] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[107] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[108] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- Based on an estimated number of 4,064,389 eligible voters[1]
Debates
The debate season began only three days after the primaries, with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held on Friday, August 31.[109][110]
Endorsements
Jeff Johnson (R)
- Federal officials
- Tom Emmer, U.S. representative and 2010 nominee for governor[113]
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States[114]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida[32]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[115]
- Statewide and local officials
- Michelle Benson, Minnesota state senator[116]
- Matt Dean, state representative[117]
- Carol Molnau, former Minnesota lieutenant governor[118]
- Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota[119]
- Al Quie, former governor of Minnesota[120]
- Individuals
- Mike Lindell, conservative businessman and CEO of My Pillow[121]
- Organizations
- Minnesota Farm Bureau[122]
- National Federation of Independent Business[123]
- Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis[124]
Tim Walz (DFL)
- Federal officials
- Max Cleland, former U.S. senator[34]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator[125]
- Betty McCollum, U.S. representative
- Dennis McDonough, former chief of staff to Barack Obama
- Walter Mondale, former vice president, nominee for president in 1984, and former U.S. senator[35]
- Rick Nolan, U.S. representative and former candidate for lieutenant governor[126]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States[127]
- Collin Peterson, U.S. representative[36]
- Tina Smith, U.S. senator[128]
- Newspapers
- Duluth News Tribune (general election)
- ECM Publishers
- Mesabi Daily News (general election)
- Minnesota Daily (general election)
- Star Tribune (general election)
- Winona Daily News (general election)
- Mayors
- Rita Albrecht, mayor of Bemidji
- Robert Beussman, mayor of New Ulm
- Bob Byrnes, mayor of Marshall
- Rick Cannata, mayor of Hibbing
- Melvin Carter, mayor of St. Paul
- Molly Cummings, mayor of Hopkins
- Jacob Frey, mayor of Minneapolis[37]
- Mary Gaasch, mayor of Lauderdale
- Eric Garcetti, mayor of Los Angeles[129]
- Emily Larson, mayor of Duluth
- Kirsten Hagen-Kennedy, mayor of North Branch
- Mike Kuhle, mayor of Worthington
- Mike Maguire, mayor of Eagan
- Rick Miller, mayor of Waite Park
- Harold Peterson, mayor of Blooming Prairie
- Sarah Schroeder, mayor of Spring Grove
- Nancy Tyra-Lukens, mayor of Eden Prairie
- Ardell Brede, mayor of Rochester
- Ben Schierer, mayor of Fergus Falls
- Jim Hovland, mayor of Edina
- Shep Harris, mayor of Golden Valley
- Gary Skalko, mayor of Mountain Iron
- Roy Srp, mayor of Waseca
- Myron Bailey, mayor of Cottage Grove
- Pat Baustian, mayor of Luverne
- Bob Broeder, mayor of Le Seur
- Ted Kozlowski, mayor of Stillwater
- Jack L'Heureux, mayor of Mora
- Charles Novak, mayor of Ely
- Mark Peterson, mayor of Winona
- Dennis Phelps, mayor of Westbrook
- Mike Poellinger, mayor of La Crescent
- R. T. Rybak, former mayor of Minneapolis[36]
- Gary Skalko, mayor of Mountain Iron
- Nora Slawik, mayor of Maplewood
- Dave Smiglewski, mayor of Granite Falls
- Tom Stiehm, mayor of Austin
- El Tinklenberg, former mayor of Blaine
- John Tuorilla, mayor of Columet
- State and local officials
- Jamie Becker-Finn, state representative
- Karla Bigham, state senator
- Terri Bonoff, former state senator
- Robin Brown, former state representative
- Arne Carlson, former governor of Minnesota (R)
- Jim Carlson, state senator
- Greg Clausen, state senator
- Dick Cohen, state senator
- Jack Considine, state representative
- Kevin Dahle, former state senator
- Mark Dayton, governor of Minnesota
- John Dorn, former state representative
- Rob Eklund, state representative
- Nick Frentz, state senator
- Patti Fritz, former state representative
- Foung Hawj, state senator
- Jeff Hayden, state senator
- Jason Isaacson, state senator
- Alice Johnson, former state senator
- Clark Johnson, state representative
- Ruth Johnson, former state representative
- Steve Kelley, former state senator
- Susan Kent, state senator
- Ron Latz, state senator
- Fue Lee, state representative[38]
- Tina Liebling, state representative and former candidate for governor
- Leon Lille, state representative
- Matt Little, state senator
- Tony Lourey, state senator
- Paul Marquart, state representative
- Erin Murphy, state representative, former candidate for governor
- John Persell, former state representative
- Jeanne Poppe, state representative
- Roger Reinert, former state senator
- Mark Ritchie, former Minnesota secretary of state
- Sharon Ropes, former state senator
- Don Samuelson, former state senator
- Duane Sauke, state representative
- Tom Saxhaug, former state senator
- Matt Schmit, former state senator
- Jennifer Schultz, state representative[130]
- Yvonne Selcer, former state representative
- Kathy Sheran, former state senator
- Erik Simonson, state senator
- Rod Skoe, former state senator
- Loren Solberg, former state representative
- Dan Sparks, state senator
- Mike Sundin, state representative
- Ted Suss, former state representative
- Lori Swanson, Minnesota attorney general, former candidate for governor
- Chuck Wiger, state senator
- Cheryl Youakim, state representative
- Local officials
- Betsy Tate Anderson, former Hopkins School Board
- David Boone, Robbinsdale School Board
- Jen Bouchard, Hopkins School Board
- Crystal Brakke, Richfield School Board
- Katy Campbell, Hopkins Council
- Anne Casey, St. Louis Park School Board
- Joanie Clausen, Golden Valley Council
- Mari Daily, Moorhead Council
- Jim Grabowska, St. Clair School Board
- Dan Hartman, former Duluth Council
- Michael Herring, Robbinsdale School Board
- Linda Higgins, Hennepin County commissioner
- Noah Hobbs, Duluth City Council
- Valerie Holthus, Andover City Council
- Andrew Johnson, Minneapolis City Council
- Chris LaTondresse, Hopkins School Board
- Pam Lindberg, Robbinsdale School Board
- Nevada Littlewolf, Virginia City Council
- Nancy Livingston, North St. Paul School Board
- Randy Maluchnik, Carver County commissioner
- Ken Morrison, St. Louis Park School Board
- Reed Olson, Beltrami County commissioner
- Linea Palmisano, Minneapolis City Council
- Todd Rengo, Esko School Board
- Gillian Rosenquist, Golden Valley Council
- Kevin Staunton, Edina City Council
- Vance Stuehrenberg, Blue Earth County commissioner
- Christian Torkelson, Little Canada Council
- Mary Tomback, St. Louis Park School Board
- Renee Van Nett, Duluth City Council
- Karen Waters, St. Louis Park School Board
- Gordy Wagner, Pope County commissioner
- Abdi Warsame, Minneapolis City Council
- Individuals
- Wesley Clark, retired general, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO[39]
- Ken Martin, chair of the Minnesota DFL Party
- Judy Shepard, board president of Matthew Shepard Foundation, LGBT-rights activist
- David Wellstone, son of late senator Paul Wellstone
- Tribal nations
- Unions
- AFSCME Council 5 – American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- American Federation of Government Employees[42]
- Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes
- Education Minnesota[43]
- IBEW – International Brotherhood of Electrical Engineers – Minnesota State Council
- Inter Faculty Organization[131]
- International Union of Operating Engineers – Local 49[44]
- Ironworkers Local 512 – International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers
- IUPAT Local 82 – International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- LiUNA! – Laborers' International Union of North America – Minnesota & North Dakota[45]
- MAPE – Minnesota Association of Professional Employees[46]
- Minnesota AFL–CIO
- Minneapolis Firefighters Local 82 – International Association of Fire Fighters
- Minnesota Pipe Trades
- Minnesota Professional Firefighters – International Association of Fire Fighters
- Minnesota State Building & Construction Trades Council
- Minnesota State Council of Machinists – International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
- North Central States Regional Council of Carpenters – United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America
- Roofers, Waterproofers & Allied Trades Local 96 – United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers
- Service Employees International Union Minnesota
- SMART Sheet Metal Workers Local 10 – Sheet Metal Workers' International Association[47]
- SMART Transportation Division, UTU – United Transportation Union
- Teamsters Joint Council 32[48]
- Teamsters Local 120
- UFCW Local 1189 – United Food and Commercial Workers
- United Steelworkers District 11 – USW
- National organizations
- NARAL Pro-Choice America – Minnesota chapter
- VoteVets.org
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Jeff Johnson (R) |
Josh Welter (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[132] | November 2–4, 2018 | 953 | – | 53% | 41% | 2% | 2%[133] | – |
| Research Co.[134] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 1% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[135] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 5.3% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 9% |
| St. Cloud State University[136] | October 15–30, 2018 | 404 | – | 50% | 34% | – | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon[137] | October 15–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 39% | 3% | 2%[133] | 12% |
| Change Research[138] | October 12–13, 2018 | 1,413 | – | 47% | 44% | 3% | 4%[139] | 2% |
| Marist College[140] | September 30 – October 4, 2018 | 637 LV | ± 4.9% | 51% | 36% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
| 55% | 38% | – | <1% | 7% | ||||
| 860 RV | ± 4.2% | 49% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% | ||
| 53% | 39% | – | 1% | 8% | ||||
| Mason-Dixon[141] | September 10–12, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 36% | 1% | 2%[133] | 16% |
| SurveyUSA[142] | September 6–8, 2018 | 574 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 40% | – | 3% | 10% |
| Suffolk University[143] | August 17–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 41% | 1% | 1%[144] | 12% |
| Emerson College[49] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 33% | – | – | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Erin Murphy (D) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College[50] | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 2% | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lori Swanson (D) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 36% | – | 21% |
| Marist College[50] | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 7% |
| BK Strategies[145] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (D) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 33% | – | 23% |
| Marist College[50] | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
| BK Strategies[145] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 41% | – | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lori Swanson (D) |
Jeff Johnson (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[49] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK Strategies[145] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-A Better Minnesota)[146] | June 15–16, 2018 | 717 | – | 46% | 39% | 16% |
Hypothetical polling
with Erin Murphy and Tim Pawlenty
with Lori Swanson and Tim Pawlenty
with Tim Walz and Tim Pawlenty
with Lori Swanson and Jeff Johnson
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz | 1,393,096 | 53.84% | +3.77% | |
| Republican | Jeff Johnson | 1,097,705 | 42.43% | −2.08% | |
| Grassroots—LC | Chris Wright | 68,667 | 2.65% | +1.07% | |
| Libertarian | Josh Welter | 26,735 | 1.03% | +0.11% | |
| Write-in | 1,084 | 0.04% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,587,287 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Aitkin (largest city: Aitkin)
- Big Stone (largest city: Ortonville)
- Chippewa (largest city: Montevideo)
- Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake)
- Itasca (largest city: Grand Rapids)
- Kittson (largest city: Hallock)
- Lac qui Parle (largest city: Madison)
- Marshall (largest city: Warren)
- Norman (largest city: Ada) (became tied)
- Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls)
- Pine (largest city: Pine City)
- Pope (largest city: Glenwood)
- Red Lake (largest city: Red Lake Falls)
- Stevens (largest city: Morris)
- Swift (largest city: Benson)
- Traverse (largest city: Wheaton)
- Watonwan (largest city: St. James)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Walz won five of eight congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Johnson. Each candidate won a district that elected a representative of the other party.[148]
| District | Walz | Johnson | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 50% | 47% | Jim Hagedorn |
| 2nd | 51% | 45% | Angie Craig |
| 3rd | 54% | 42% | Dean Phillips |
| 4th | 66% | 31% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 78% | 18% | Ilhan Omar |
| 6th | 41% | 55% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 40% | 57% | Collin Peterson |
| 8th | 47% | 49% | Pete Stauber |
Voter demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Walz | Johnson | No answer |
% of voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 48 | 49 | 3 | 46 |
| Women | 59 | 37 | 4 | 54 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 71 | 25 | 4 | 6 |
| 25–29 years old | 63 | 34 | 3 | 5 |
| 30–39 years old | 60 | 38 | 2 | 12 |
| 40–49 years old | 51 | 46 | 3 | 13 |
| 50–64 years old | 54 | 45 | 1 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 52 | 46 | 2 | 35 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 53 | 46 | 1 | 89 |
| Black | 84 | 14 | 2 | 5 |
| Latino | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Race by gender | ||||
| White men | 46 | 53 | 1 | 41 |
| White women | 59 | 39 | 2 | 48 |
| Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latino women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 52 | 45 | 3 | 17 |
| Some college education | 48 | 49 | 3 | 24 |
| Associate degree | 48 | 49 | 3 | 17 |
| Bachelor's degree | 56 | 40 | 4 | 26 |
| Advanced degree | 70 | 28 | 2 | 16 |
| Education and race | ||||
| White college graduates | 61 | 35 | 4 | 38 |
| White no college degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 51 |
| Non-white college graduates | 70 | 26 | 4 | 4 |
| Non-white no college degree | 74 | 23 | 3 | 7 |
| Whites by education and gender | ||||
| White women with college degrees | 68 | 29 | 3 | 21 |
| White women without college degrees | 51 | 45 | 4 | 28 |
| White men with college degrees | 54 | 43 | 3 | 17 |
| White men without college degrees | 40 | 58 | 2 | 23 |
| Non-whites | 73 | 24 | 3 | 11 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 63 | 34 | 3 | 14 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 21 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 48 | 51 | 1 | 36 |
| $100,000–199,999 | 55 | 42 | 3 | 23 |
| Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 95 | 5 | N/A | 39 |
| Republicans | 10 | 90 | N/A | 32 |
| Independents | 51 | 42 | 7 | 28 |
| Party by gender | ||||
| Democratic men | 94 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| Democratic women | 95 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| Republican men | 8 | 92 | N/A | 16 |
| Republican women | 12 | 88 | N/A | 17 |
| Independent men | 47 | 48 | 5 | 16 |
| Independent women | 58 | 34 | 8 | 13 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 94 | 2 | 4 | 27 |
| Moderates | 65 | 32 | 3 | 39 |
| Conservatives | 10 | 87 | 3 | 33 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 47 | 49 | 4 | 68 |
| Unmarried | 63 | 33 | 4 | 32 |
| Gender by marital status | ||||
| Married men | 43 | 54 | 3 | 31 |
| Married women | 51 | 45 | 4 | 36 |
| Unmarried men | 52 | 43 | 5 | 15 |
| Unmarried women | 72 | 24 | 4 | 18 |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 52 | 44 | 4 | 12 |
| No | 55 | 42 | 3 | 88 |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Health care | 74 | 24 | 2 | 50 |
| Immigration | 20 | 79 | 1 | 22 |
| Economy | 30 | 67 | 3 | 18 |
| Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 67 | 30 | 3 | 40 |
| Suburban | 50 | 46 | 4 | 32 |
| Rural | 41 | 56 | 3 | 28 |
| Source: CNN[149] | ||||
See also
Notes
References
External links
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