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The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.
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| Turnout | 55.65%  4.82pp [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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  Brewer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Goddard: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.[2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.[3]
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Candidates
Declared
- Terry Goddard, State Attorney General,[4] former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994
Declined
- Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
- Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix
The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.[5][6]
Candidates
Declared
- Jan Brewer, incumbent governor
Withdrew
- Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)[7]
- Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)[8]
Declined
- Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff[9]
- J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
- John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party[10]
- Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
- Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona[11]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Jan Brewer (inc.) | Dean Martin* | Buz Mills* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[12] | June 16, 2010 | 72% | 12% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[13] | May 17, 2010 | 45% | 18% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[14] | April 23–25, 2010 | 25% | 15% | 11% |
| 58% | 16% | 19% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | April 13, 2010 | 26% | 12% | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | March 15, 2010 | 20% | 21% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[16] | January 20, 2010 | 29% | 27% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[17] | November 18, 2009 | 10% | 22% | — |
| Public Policy Polling[18] | September 21, 2009 | 39% | 26% | — |
- * Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination
Results
Brewer—80–90%
Brewer—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jan Brewer (Incumbent) | 479,153 | 81.53 | |
| Republican | Buz Mills* | 51,001 | 8.68 | |
| Republican | Dean Martin* | 36,012 | 6.13 | |
| Republican | Matthew Jette | 19,611 | 3.34 | |
| Republican | Write-in | 1,906 | 0.32 | |
| Total votes | 587,683 | 100 | ||
- * Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot
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Candidates
- Ronald Cavanaugh
- Barry Hess
- Bruce Olsen
- Alvin Ray Yount
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Barry Hess | 1,303 | 43.38 | |
| Libertarian | Bruce Olsen | 612 | 20.37 | |
| Libertarian | Ronald Cavanaugh | 547 | 18.21 | |
| Libertarian | Write-in | 299 | 9.95 | |
| Libertarian | Alvin Ray Yount | 243 | 8.09 | |
| Total votes | 3,004 | 100 | ||
Candidates
- Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
- Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
- Barry Hess (L)
- Larry Gist (G)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[19] | Likely R | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[20] | Lean R | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[21] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Likely R | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[23] | Lean R | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Terry Goddard (D) | Jan Brewer (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[24] | October 28, 2010 | 39% | 53% |
| Public Policy Polling[25] | October 23–24, 2010 | 44% | 52% |
| BRC Polls[26] | October 11, 2010 | 35% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports[24] | October 3, 2010 | 39% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports[27] | September 7, 2010 | 38% | 60% |
| Rasmussen Reports[28] | August 25, 2010 | 38% | 57% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | July 21, 2010 | 37% | 56% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | June 29, 2010 | 35% | 53% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | May 17, 2010 | 39% | 52% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | April 27, 2010 | 40% | 48% |
| Public Policy Polling[33] | April 23–25, 2010 | 47% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | April 14, 2010 | 40% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | March 16, 2010 | 45% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | January 20, 2010 | 43% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports[34] | November 18, 2009 | 44% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports[35] | September 27, 2009 | 42% | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | September 7, 2009 | 46% | 36% |
Debate
On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.[37] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.[38][39]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Janice Kay Brewer (inc.) | 938,934 | 54.33% | +18.89% | |
| Democratic | Samuel Pearson Goddard III | 733,935 | 42.43% | −20.11% | |
| Libertarian | Barry Hess | 38,722 | 2.24% | +0.27% | |
| Green | Larry Gist | 16,128 | 0.93% | ||
| Write-ins | 362 | 0.02% | |||
| Majority | 204,999 | 11.86% | −15.28% | ||
| Turnout | 1,728,081 | ||||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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