2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
Turnout	55.65% 4.82pp [1]
Nominee Jan Brewer Terry Goddard Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 938,934 733,935 Percentage 54.33% 42.43%
County results Precinct results Brewer:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Goddard:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election Jan Brewer Republican Elected Governor Jan Brewer Republican

Background

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.^[2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Terry Goddard, State Attorney General,^[4] former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994

Declined

• Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
• Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix

Republican primary

The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.^[5][6]

Candidates

Declared

• Jan Brewer, incumbent governor

Withdrew

• Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)^[7]
• Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)^[8]

Declined

• Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff^[9]
• J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
• John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party^[10]
• Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
• Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona^[11]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jan Brewer (inc.)	Dean Martin*	Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports[12]	June 16, 2010	72%	12%	16%
Rasmussen Reports[13]	May 17, 2010	45%	18%	18%
Public Policy Polling[14]	April 23–25, 2010	25%	15%	11%
		58%	16%	19%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	April 13, 2010	26%	12%	18%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	March 15, 2010	20%	21%	19%
Rasmussen Reports[16]	January 20, 2010	29%	27%	—
Rasmussen Reports[17]	November 18, 2009	10%	22%	—
Public Policy Polling[18]	September 21, 2009	39%	26%	—

^{* Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination}

Results

Results by county:

  Brewer—80–90%

  Brewer—70–80%

Republican primary results^[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jan Brewer (Incumbent)	479,153	81.53
	Republican	Buz Mills*	51,001	8.68
	Republican	Dean Martin*	36,012	6.13
	Republican	Matthew Jette	19,611	3.34
	Republican	Write-in	1,906	0.32
Total votes			587,683	100

^{* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot}

Libertarian primary

Candidates

• Ronald Cavanaugh
• Barry Hess
• Bruce Olsen
• Alvin Ray Yount

Results

Libertarian primary results^[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	1,303	43.38
	Libertarian	Bruce Olsen	612	20.37
	Libertarian	Ronald Cavanaugh	547	18.21
	Libertarian	Write-in	299	9.95
	Libertarian	Alvin Ray Yount	243	8.09
Total votes			3,004	100

General election

Candidates

• Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
• Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
• Barry Hess (L)
• Larry Gist (G)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[19]	Likely R	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[20]	Lean R	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[21]	Lean R	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22]	Likely R	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[23]	Lean R	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Terry Goddard (D)	Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports[24]	October 28, 2010	39%	53%
Public Policy Polling[25]	October 23–24, 2010	44%	52%
BRC Polls[26]	October 11, 2010	35%	38%
Rasmussen Reports[24]	October 3, 2010	39%	55%
Rasmussen Reports[27]	September 7, 2010	38%	60%
Rasmussen Reports[28]	August 25, 2010	38%	57%
Rasmussen Reports[29]	July 21, 2010	37%	56%
Rasmussen Reports[30]	June 29, 2010	35%	53%
Rasmussen Reports[31]	May 17, 2010	39%	52%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	April 27, 2010	40%	48%
Public Policy Polling[33]	April 23–25, 2010	47%	44%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	April 14, 2010	40%	44%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	March 16, 2010	45%	43%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	January 20, 2010	43%	42%
Rasmussen Reports[34]	November 18, 2009	44%	42%
Rasmussen Reports[35]	September 27, 2009	42%	40%
Public Policy Polling[36]	September 7, 2009	46%	36%

Debate

On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.^[37] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.^[38][39]

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010^[40]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Janice Kay Brewer (inc.)	938,934	54.33%	+18.89%
	Democratic	Samuel Pearson Goddard III	733,935	42.43%	−20.11%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	38,722	2.24%	+0.27%
	Green	Larry Gist	16,128	0.93%
	Write-ins		362	0.02%
Majority			204,999	11.86%	−15.28%
Turnout			1,728,081
	Republican hold		Swing

By county

County[41] Jan Brewer Republican Terry Goddard Democratic Barry Hess Libertarian Larry Gist Green Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % # % # % Apache 7,002 33.89 12,839 62.14 514 2.48 294 1.4 10 0.04 -5,837 -28.25 20,659 Cochise 24,974 62.32 13,954 34.82 742 1.85 398 0.99 2 0.00 11,020 27.50 40,070 Coconino 16,754 43.02 20,792 53.39 880 2.25 505 1.27 13 0.01 -4,038 -10.37 38,942 Gila 11,163 62.26 6,155 34.32 451 2.51 158 0.88 2 0.01 5,008 27.94 17,929 Graham 5,994 65.48 2,865 31.30 220 2.40 74 0.80 0 0.00 3,129 34.18 9,153 Greenlee 1,187 48.48 1,177 48.08 60 2.45 24 0.98 0 0.00 10 0.40 2,448 La Paz 3,048 67.31 1,330 29.37 80 1.76 70 1.54 0 0.00 1,718 37.94 4,528 Maricopa 543,045 54.78 415,142 41.88 24,077 2.42 8,600 0.86 280 0.02 127,903 12.90 991,144 Mohave 39,026 72.65 12,777 23.78 1,307 2.43 601 1.11 4 0.00 26,249 48.87 53,715 Navajo 16,157 54.49 12,517 42.22 648 2.18 317 1.06 7 0.02 3,640 12.27 29,646 Pima 148,916 47.18 158,337 50.17 648 0.20 317 0.10 16 0.00 -9,421 -2.99 315,589 Pinal 45,807 58.28 30,109 38.31 1922 2.44 735 0.93 18 0.02 15,698 19.97 78,591 Santa Cruz 3,190 31.76 6,608 65.81 138 1.37 105 1.04 0 0.00 -3,418 -34.05 10,041 Yavapai 53,081 65.21 25,569 31.41 1,830 2.24 900 1.10 8 0.00 27,512 33.80 81,388 Yuma 19,590 57.22 13,764 40.20 500 1.46 380 1.10 2 0.00 5,826 17.02 34,236 Totals 938,934 54.33 733,935 42.43 38,722 2.24 16,128 0.93 362 0.02 204,999 11.90 1,728,081 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista) Gila (Largest city: Payson) Graham (Largest city: Safford) Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton) La Paz (Largest city: Parker) Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix) Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City) Navajo (Largest city: Show Low) Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley) Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley) Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)

References

1. "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
2. "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
3. Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on December 31, 2014. Retrieved February 18, 2010.
4. "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. August 17, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
5. "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on July 16, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
6. "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on August 27, 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.
7. Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
8. Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
9. Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on May 6, 2010.
10. "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
11. Benson, Matthew; Newton, Casey; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 18, 2010.
12. Rasmussen Reports
13. Rasmussen Reports ^{[permanent dead link‍]}
14. Public Policy Polling
15. Rasmussen Reports
16. Rasmussen Reports
17. Rasmussen Reports
18. Public Policy Polling
19. "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
20. "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
21. "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
22. "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
23. "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
24. Rasmussen Reports
25. Public Policy Polling
26. BRC Polls
27. Rasmussen Reports
28. Rasmussen Reports
29. Rasmussen Reports
30. Rasmussen Reports
31. Rasmussen Reports
32. Rasmussen Reports
33. Public Policy Polling
34. Rasmussen Reports
35. Rasmussen Reports
36. Public Policy Polling
37. "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News. Archived from the original on December 24, 2021.
38. "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.
39. Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.
40. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
41. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

External links

• Elections at the Arizona Secretary of State
• Arizona Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Arizona Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• 2010 Arizona Governor General Election: Jan Brewer (R) vs Terry Goddard (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Arizona Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Arizona Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Arizona Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Arizona Governor from Follow the Money
• Race Profile in The New York Times

Debates

• Arizona Governor Debate, C-SPAN, September 1, 2010, full video (58:00)

Official campaign sites

• Jan Brewer for Governor (Archived)
• Terry Goddard for Governor (Archived)