2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2020 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen won reelection to a third term after comfortably defeating Republican nominee Bryant Messner by 15.6 points and sweeping every single county in the state. This marked the first Senate election since 1972 in which the Democrat carried Belknap County.
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Shaheen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
80–90% >90% Messner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Shaheen's final margin outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election by around 8 percentage points.
The primary election was held on September 8, 2020.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) | 142,012 | 93.88% | |
Democratic | Paul Krautman | 5,914 | 3.91% | |
Democratic | Tom Alciere | 2,992 | 1.98% | |
Republican | Don Bolduc (write-in) | 199 | 0.13% | |
Republican | Corky Messner (write-in) | 137 | 0.09% | |
Republican | Andy Martin (write-in) | 11 | 0.0% | |
Republican | Gerard Beloin (write-in) | 3 | 0.0% | |
Total votes | 151,268 | 100.0% |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Don Bolduc | Corey Lewandowski | Corky Messner | Bill O'Brien | Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire[55] | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 703 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 31% | – | 52% | – | 0%[lower-alpha 2] | 17% | |||||
Saint Anselm College[56] | August 15–17, 2020 | 475 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 29% | – | 31% | – | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | 37% | |||||
The Tarrance Group[57][upper-alpha 1] | July 12–14, 2020 | 401 (LV) | ± 5% | 27% | – | 39% | – | – | – | |||||
Remington Research Group[58][upper-alpha 2] | June 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 8% | – | 17% | – | – | 73% | |||||
O'Brien withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||
Lewandowski announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||
Emerson College[59] | September 6–9, 2019 | 379 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 29% | 4% | 7% | – | 56% | |||||
Vote Adjustments/WMUR[60] | September 5–6, 2019 | 402 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 9% | 29% | 2% | 6% | – | 49% | |||||
Messner announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||
Remington Research (R)[61][upper-alpha 2] | August 12–14, 2019 | 200 (RV) | – | 21% | 21% | 2% | 8% | – | 47% | |||||
Fabrizio (R)[62][upper-alpha 3] | August 11–12, 2019 | 400 (LV) | – | 11% | 30% | – | 10% | – | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Corky Messner | 69,801 | 50.26% | |
Republican | Don Bolduc | 58,749 | 42.30% | |
Republican | Andy Martin | 6,443 | 4.64% | |
Republican | Gerard Beloin | 3,098 | 2.23% | |
Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (write-in) | 771 | 0.56% | |
Democratic | Tom Alciere (write-in) | 7 | 0.0% | |
Democratic | Paul Krautmann (write-in) | 7 | 0.0% | |
Total votes | 138,876 | 100.0% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
|||||||
Jeanne Shaheen | Bryant Messner | Justin O'Donnell | |||||
1 | Oct. 15, 2022 | New Hampshire Public Radio | Laura Knoy Annie Ropeik |
[65] | P | P | N |
2 | Oct. 25, 2022 | WMUR | [65] | P | P | N |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[66] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[67] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[69] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[70] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[71] | Lean D | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[72] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
538[73] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[74] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
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Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Corky Messner (R) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group[79] | October 26–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 40% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] |
University of New Hampshire[80] | October 24–28, 2020 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 54% | 43% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] |
Saint Anselm College[81] | October 23–26, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 39% | 8%[lower-alpha 6] |
YouGov/UMass Lowell[82] | October 16–26, 2020 | 757 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 57% | 38% | 5%[lower-alpha 7] |
University of New Hampshire[83] | October 9–12, 2020 | 899 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 40% | 6%[lower-alpha 8] |
Suffolk University[84] | October 8–12, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 36% | 13%[lower-alpha 9] |
Saint Anselm College[85] | October 1–4, 2020 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 38% | 8%[lower-alpha 10] |
Emerson College[86] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 55% | 40% | 5%[lower-alpha 11] |
American Research Group[79] | September 25–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 56% | 40% | 4%[lower-alpha 12] |
University of New Hampshire[87] | September 24–28, 2020 | 972 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 41% | 5%[lower-alpha 13] |
YouGov/UMass Lowell[88] | September 17–25, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 56% | 37% | 7%[lower-alpha 14] |
University of New Hampshire[55] | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 1,889 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 54% | 36% | 9%[lower-alpha 15] |
University of New Hampshire[89] | July 16–28, 2020 | 1,893 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 54% | 35% | 12%[lower-alpha 16] |
University of New Hampshire[89] | June 18–22, 2020 | 932 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 37% | 13%[lower-alpha 17] |
University of New Hampshire[89] | May 14–18, 2020 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 34% | 14%[lower-alpha 18] |
University of New Hampshire[90] | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 28% | 21%[lower-alpha 19] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Don Bolduc (R) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire[55] | August 28 – September 1, 2020 | 1,889 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 53% | 37% | 10%[lower-alpha 20] |
University of New Hampshire[89] | July 16–28, 2020 | 1,893 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 54% | 35% | 10%[lower-alpha 21] |
University of New Hampshire[89] | June 18–22, 2020 | 932 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 39% | 11%[lower-alpha 22] |
University of New Hampshire[89] | May 14–18, 2020 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 39% | 11%[lower-alpha 21] |
University of New Hampshire[90] | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 30% | 22%[lower-alpha 23] |
Remington Research (R)[61][upper-alpha 2] | August 12–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Gravis Marketing[91] | August 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 38% | 11%[lower-alpha 24] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Corey Lewandowski (R) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American Research Group[79] | December 12–16, 2019 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 58% | 35% | 7% |
Emerson College[59] | November 22–26, 2019 | 1,184 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
American Research Group[79] | September 20–24, 2019 | 560 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 34% | 10% |
Emerson College[59] | September 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Remington Research (R)[61][upper-alpha 2] | August 12–14, 2019 | 427 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 37% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Bill O'Brien (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire[90] | February 19–25, 2020 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 51% | 30% | 5% | 14% |
Gravis Marketing[91] | August 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 39% | – | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[92] | February 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
YouGov/UMass Amherst[93] | February 7–15, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 42% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Kelly Ayotte (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/UMass Amherst[93] | February 7–15, 2019 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 41% | 36% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Anselm College[56] | August 15–17, 2020 | 1,042 (RV) | ± 3% | 49% | 44% | 2% | 4% |
Saint Anselm College[94] | Jun 13–16, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3% | 46% | 43% | 2% | 8% |
Saint Anselm College[95] | Apr 23–27, 2020 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% |
with Don Bolduc
with Corey Lewandowski
with Bill O'Brien
with Chris Sununu
with Kelly Ayotte
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) | 450,778 | 56.63% | +5.17% | |
Republican | Bryant "Corky" Messner | 326,229 | 40.99% | −7.22% | |
Libertarian | Justin O'Donnell | 18,421 | 2.32% | N/A | |
Write-in | 486 | 0.06% | –0.27% | ||
Total votes | 795,914 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Shaheen won both congressional districts.[97]
District | Shaheen | Messner | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 56% | 42% | Chris Pappas |
2nd | 57% | 40% | Annie Kuster |
Partisan clients
Voter samples
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