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2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia

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2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia
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The 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020, and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect the Class II member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. Democrat Jon Ossoff narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in the runoff election, despite Perdue receiving more votes in the first round. The general election was held concurrently with the 2020 presidential election, as well as with other elections to the Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

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No candidate received a majority of the vote during the general election on November 3, so the top two finishers—Perdue (49.7%) and Ossoff (47.9%)—advanced to a runoff election, held on January 5, 2021. The runoff was held concurrently with the special election for Georgia's other U.S. Senate seat (which had also advanced to a runoff), in which Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler lost to Democratic nominee Raphael Warnock. After the general round of elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus 48 (including two independents who caucus with them). As a result, the two runoffs decided control of the Senate under the incoming Biden administration. By winning both seats, Democrats took control of the chamber, with Vice President Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote giving them an effective majority. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide and globally. On January 6, 2021, most major news outlets projected Ossoff the winner, in the midst of the US Capitol riot.[1][2] Perdue conceded the race on January 8.[3][4] According to OpenSecrets, this campaign was the most expensive in U.S. Senate history, with over $468 million spent.[5] Ossoff's victory, along with Warnock's, gave the Democrats control of the Senate for the first time since 2015. Ossoff and Warnock became the first Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia since Zell Miller in a 2000 special election.

Ossoff became the first Democrat elected to a full term in the Senate from Georgia since Max Cleland, who held this seat from 1997 to 2003, and the first Jewish member of the Senate from the state.[6] Ossoff became the youngest senator since Don Nickles won in 1980, and the youngest Democrat since Joe Biden won in 1972. Georgia election officials certified Ossoff's victory on January 19, 2021; he was sworn in on January 20.[7] Ossoff is the first Jewish senator from the Deep South since Benjamin F. Jonas of Louisiana, who was elected in 1878, and the first millennial United States senator. The two elections mark the first time since the 1994 United States Senate election in Tennessee and the concurrent special election that both Senate seats in a state have flipped from one party to the other in a single election cycle. This was also the first time the Democrats achieved this since West Virginia's 1958 Senate elections. With a margin of 1.2%, this election was also the closest race of the 2020 Senate election cycle.

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Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

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Democratic primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

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Head-to-head polling

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Endorsements

Teresa Tomlinson

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Results

Thumb
County results
  Ossoff
  •   Ossoff—60–70%
  •   Ossoff—50–60%
  •   Ossoff—40–50%
  •   Ossoff—30–40%
  •   Ossoff—<30%
  Ossoff/Riggs Amico tie
  •   Ossoff/Riggs Amico tie—<30%
  Tomlinson
  •   Tomlinson—60-70%
  •   Tomlinson—50-60%
  •   Tomlinson—40-50%
  •   Tomlinson—30-40%
  •   Tomlinson—<30%
  Riggs Amico
  •   Riggs Amico—30-40%
  •   Riggs Amico—<30%
  Smith
  •   Smith—30-40%
  •   Smith—<30%
  Knox
  •   Knox—<30%

Almost four times as many Georgia voters participated in the 2020 Democratic Senate primary as in the 2016 primary, when only 310,053 votes were cast.[53]

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Other candidates

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Hazel in 2018

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Independents

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General election

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Debates

The first debate between Hazel, Ossoff, and Perdue occurred virtually[62] on October 12.[63]

A second debate between Ossoff and Perdue, held on October 28[e] in Savannah and aired on television station WTOC-TV,[64] was more heated and made national headlines, with Ossoff saying that Perdue had claimed "COVID-19 was no deadlier than the flu", was "looking after [his] own assets, and ... portfolio", and that Perdue voted "four times to end protections for preexisting conditions".[65] Ossoff also called Perdue a "crook" and criticized him for "attacking the health of the people that [he] represent[s]".[66] Perdue said Ossoff will "say and do anything to my friends in Georgia to mislead them about how radical and socialist" his agenda is.[67] Video of the exchange went viral.[62][66]

The next day, October 29, Perdue said he would not attend the third and final debate, previously scheduled to be broadcast on WSB-TV on November 1; instead Perdue decided to attend a rally with President Trump in Rome on the same day[68]—"as lovely as another debate listening to Jon Ossoff lie to the people of Georgia sounds",[67] according to a Perdue spokesman.

On December 6, Ossoff debated an empty podium as Perdue declined to participate in a Georgia Public Broadcasting-held debate.[69] Ossoff criticized Perdue's absence, accusing him of skipping the event because of the negative response to his performance in the October debates.

Predictions

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Post-primary endorsements

David Perdue (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

State officials

Organizations

Jon Ossoff (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Unions

Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

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Hypothetical polling

with Teresa Tomlinson

with Sarah Riggs Amico

with Stacey Abrams

with Generic Democrat

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Results

Thumb
First round state senate district results

No candidate received a majority of the vote on November 3, so the top two finishers—incumbent Republican senator David Perdue (49.7%) and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff (47.9%)—advanced to a runoff election held on January 5, 2021.[184][185]

Voters whose mail-in ballots were rejected were allowed to submit corrections until 5pm on November 6.[186][187]

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By congressional district

Perdue won 8 of 14 congressional districts in the general election.[189]

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Runoff

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The runoff election between Perdue and Ossoff was on January 5, 2021,[190] alongside the special election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler.

Following the 2020 Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus 48.[191] Since Democrats won both Georgia runoffs, their caucus gained control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie is broken by Democratic vice president Kamala Harris. If the Democrats had lost either race, Republicans would have retained control of the Senate.[192] The high political stakes caused the races to attract significant nationwide attention.[193][194][195] These elections are the third and fourth Senate runoff elections to be held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, following runoffs in 1992 and 2008.[196] It is also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in 1914 and 1932.[197]

The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7, 2020. Absentee ballots for the runoff election were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[198][199] Ossoff's runoff campaign largely focused around accusing Perdue of corruption as well as aggressively courting Black voters in an attempt to drive up turnout, while Perdue characterised Ossoff as a socialist and accused him of having ties to the People's Republic of China.[200] Perdue's campaign was hampered by his refusal to state that Joe Biden had won that year's presidential election, which made it exceedingly difficult for him to argue that an Ossoff victory would create a Democratic trifecta.[201]

Predictions

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Fundraising

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Polling

Aggregate polls

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This section also contains pre-runoff polls excluding all candidates except head-to-head matchups.

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Hypothetical polling

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Results

Ossoff won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election.

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By county

More information By county, County ...

By congressional district

Despite losing the statewide runoff, Perdue held onto the 8 congressional districts he had previously won in the general election.[241]

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See also

Notes

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Partisan clients

  1. The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  2. Poll sponsored by Ossoff's campaign.
  3. Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which endorsed Biden before this poll's sampling period.
  4. Poll sponsored by Warnock's campaign for the 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia.
  5. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  6. Poll sponsored by Matt Lieberman's campaign.
  7. This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates.
  8. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  9. Poll is sponsored by OANN, a far-right political talkshow.
  10. This poll was sponsored by the Republican State Leadership Committee.
  11. Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus.

Voter samples and additional candidates

  1. "Another candidate" with 7.2%
  2. Knox with 1.5%; DeJesus and Smith with 1%; McCracken with 0.3%
  3. Listed as "other/undecided"
  4. Includes undecided
  5. Initially scheduled for October 19.[62]
  6. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. Undecided with 1%
  9. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  10. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  11. "Someone else" with 3%
  12. Undecided with 3%
  13. Undecided with 6%
  14. "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  15. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  16. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  17. "Someone else" and Undecided with 1%
  18. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  19. Undecided with 5%
  20. "Other" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
  21. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  22. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  23. "Someone else" and did/would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  24. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  25. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 8%
  26. Undecided with 9%
  27. Undecided with 7%
  28. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  29. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  30. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 9%
  31. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  32. "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  33. Undecided with 4%
  34. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 16%
  35. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  36. Undecided with 14%
  37. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  38. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 11%
  39. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  40. Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  41. Would not vote with 4%
  42. Undecided with 11%
  43. "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 10%
  44. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  45. "Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 14%
  46. "Another candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  47. Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  48. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 3%
  49. "Undecided" with 8%
  50. "Someone else" with 6%; Undecided with 4%
  51. "Someone else" with 8%; Undecided with 5%
  52. "It is more important for Republicans to have control of the Senate" as opposed to "It is more important for Democrats to have control of the Senate" with 46%
  53. "It does not matter which party has control of the Senate" with 7%; Undecided with 4%
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