2004 United States presidential election in California

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in California

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout	76.04% (of registered voters) 5.10 pp 57.03% (of eligible voters) 5.11 pp[1]
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 55 0 Popular vote 6,745,485 5,509,826 Percentage 54.31% 44.36%
County Results Kerry   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Bush   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republican presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in his victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Bush would become the first and only Republican to win two terms in the White House without winning California at least once. With its 55 electoral votes, California was John Kerry's biggest electoral prize in 2004.

This is the only election since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the nationwide popular vote without California, the only time since 1976 that it voted for the popular vote loser, and the only time ever that a Republican president has won re-election without winning California. This is also the only time since its statehood that a presidential candidate was elected to two terms to the presidency without winning the state either time.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time a Republican presidential candidate received more than 40% of the vote in California, where a Republican won more than a third of the vote in Los Angeles County, where the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes, where the margin of victory was in single digits, and where the Democratic Party failed to obtain at least 60% of the vote. Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win the following counties in a presidential election: Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Stanislaus, and Ventura. He is also the last candidate of any party to win Butte and Stanislaus counties by a majority.

Primaries

• 2004 California Democratic presidential primary
• 2004 California Republican presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Solid D
Associated Press	Solid D
CNN	Likely D
Cook Political Report	Solid D
Newsweek	Solid D
New York Times	Solid D
Rasmussen Reports	Likely D
Research 2000	Solid D
Washington Post	Likely D
Washington Times	Solid D
Zogby International	Likely D
Washington Dispatch	Likely D

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004: California

Kerry led every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.^[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004.^[4] Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.^[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.^[6][7]

Analysis

John Kerry at rally for the Teamsters in Oakland, 2004

California was once a Republican leaning swing state, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time the state was won by a Republican candidate was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.

In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Kern, Fresno, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin counties, in all of which Bush increased his margin by substantially more than he did nationally, and all of which save San Diego, San Joaquin, and Ventura he won by double digits. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States; and he held Kerry to a 0.2% margin in Sacramento County (which Gore had won by 4.0%). Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor.^[8] These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.

Nonetheless, this proved the first time the Democratic Party had won remote Alpine County since 1936 and only the third in that county's 140-year electoral history, and the first time the Democratic nominee carried neighboring Mono County since 1940, and only the seventh since that county was formed in 1861; Bush thus became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying the former county, and the first to do so without carrying the latter county since William McKinley in 1896. Kerry further countered Bush's improved performance in Southern California and the Central Valley with large swings towards the Democratic Party in Northern California and the Central Coast. He improved on Al Gore's vote share by over 5% in Alameda, Sonoma, Marin, Santa Barbara, and San Mateo Counties, and in the city of San Francisco; and by over 10% in Santa Cruz County; he also improved on Gore by nearly 5% in San Luis Obispo County, although he didn't succeed in flipping it. In San Francisco, he became the first presidential nominee of any party in at least over a century to crack 80%, as Bush's vote share dipped below not only what he had gotten in 2000, but below Dole's in 1996.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in California[9][10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Forbes Kerry and John Reid Edwards	6,745,485	54.31%	55
	Republican	George Walker Bush and Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent)	5,509,826	44.36%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	50,165	0.40%	0
	Green	David Cobb	40,771	0.33%	0
	Peace and Freedom	Leonard Peltier	27,607	0.22%	0
	American Independent	Michael Peroutka	26,645	0.21%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader (write-in)	20,714	0.17%	0
	Independent	John Joseph Kennedy (write-in)	82	0.00%	0
	Independent	John Parker (write-in)	49	0.00%	0
	Independent	James Alexander-Pace (write-in)	8	0.00%	0
	Independent	Anthony Jabin (write-in)	1	0.00%	0
Invalid or blank votes			169,510
Totals			12,421,353	100.00%	55
Voter turnout (Voting Age voters)					74.7%

By county

County	John Kerry Democratic		George W. Bush Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Alameda	422,585	75.18%	130,911	23.29%	8,590	1.53%	291,674	51.89%	562,090
Alpine	373	53.21%	311	44.37%	17	2.43%	62	8.84%	701
Amador	6,541	36.56%	11,107	62.08%	243	1.36%	-4,566	-25.52%	17,891
Butte	42,448	44.14%	51,662	53.73%	2,047	2.13%	-9,214	-9.59%	96,157
Calaveras	8,286	37.09%	13,601	60.87%	456	2.04%	-5,315	-23.78%	22,343
Colusa	1,947	31.58%	4,142	67.17%	77	1.25%	-2,195	-35.59%	6,166
Contra Costa	257,254	62.28%	150,608	36.46%	5,166	1.25%	106,646	25.82%	413,028
Del Norte	3,892	41.31%	5,356	56.85%	173	1.84%	-1,464	-15.54%	9,421
El Dorado	32,242	37.33%	52,878	61.23%	1,244	1.44%	-20,636	-23.90%	86,364
Fresno	103,154	41.68%	141,988	57.38%	2,321	0.94%	-38,834	-15.70%	247,463
Glenn	2,995	31.68%	6,308	66.72%	151	1.60%	-3,313	-35.04%	9,454
Humboldt	37,988	57.66%	25,714	39.03%	2,184	3.31%	12,274	18.63%	65,886
Imperial	17,964	52.41%	15,890	46.36%	420	1.23%	2,074	6.05%	34,274
Inyo	3,350	38.88%	5,091	59.09%	175	2.03%	-1,741	-20.21%	8,616
Kern	68,603	32.49%	140,417	66.49%	2,154	1.02%	-71,814	-34.00%	211,174
Kings	10,833	33.74%	21,003	65.41%	274	0.85%	-10,170	-31.67%	32,110
Lake	13,141	53.16%	11,093	44.88%	485	1.96%	2,048	8.28%	24,719
Lassen	3,158	27.58%	8,126	70.97%	166	1.45%	-4,968	-43.39%	11,450
Los Angeles	1,907,736	63.10%	1,076,225	35.60%	39,319	1.30%	831,511	27.50%	3,023,280
Madera	13,481	34.70%	24,871	64.02%	498	1.28%	-11,390	-29.32%	38,850
Marin	99,070	73.21%	34,378	25.40%	1,877	1.39%	64,692	47.81%	135,325
Mariposa	3,251	37.55%	5,215	60.23%	192	2.22%	-1,964	-22.68%	8,658
Mendocino	24,385	63.45%	12,955	33.71%	1,089	2.83%	11,430	29.74%	38,429
Merced	24,491	42.26%	32,773	56.54%	696	1.20%	-8,282	-14.28%	57,960
Modoc	1,149	25.72%	3,235	72.42%	83	1.86%	-2,086	-46.70%	4,467
Mono	2,628	49.23%	2,621	49.10%	89	1.67%	7	0.13%	5,338
Monterey	75,241	60.36%	47,838	38.38%	1,574	1.26%	27,403	21.98%	124,653
Napa	33,666	59.48%	22,059	38.97%	874	1.54%	11,607	20.51%	56,599
Nevada	24,220	44.92%	28,790	53.39%	910	1.69%	-4,570	-8.47%	53,920
Orange	419,239	38.98%	641,832	59.68%	14,328	1.33%	-222,593	-20.70%	1,075,399
Placer	55,573	36.26%	95,969	62.61%	1,736	1.13%	-40,396	-26.35%	153,278
Plumas	4,129	36.90%	6,905	61.71%	156	1.39%	-2,776	-24.81%	11,190
Riverside	228,806	41.04%	322,473	57.83%	6,300	1.13%	-93,667	-16.79%	557,579
Sacramento	236,657	49.52%	235,539	49.29%	5,670	1.19%	1,118	0.23%	477,866
San Benito	9,851	52.61%	8,698	46.45%	176	0.94%	1,153	6.16%	18,725
San Bernardino	227,789	43.53%	289,306	55.29%	6,181	1.18%	-61,517	-11.76%	523,276
San Diego	526,437	46.33%	596,033	52.45%	13,881	1.22%	-69,596	-6.12%	1,136,351
San Francisco	296,772	83.02%	54,355	15.21%	6,338	1.77%	242,417	67.81%	357,465
San Joaquin	87,012	45.83%	100,978	53.18%	1,874	0.99%	-13,966	-7.35%	189,864
San Luis Obispo	58,742	45.52%	67,995	52.69%	2,313	1.79%	-9,253	-7.17%	129,050
San Mateo	197,922	69.48%	83,315	29.25%	3,620	1.27%	114,607	40.23%	284,857
Santa Barbara	90,314	53.17%	76,806	45.22%	2,741	1.61%	13,508	7.95%	169,861
Santa Clara	386,100	63.94%	209,094	34.63%	8,622	1.43%	177,006	29.31%	603,816
Santa Cruz	89,102	72.98%	30,354	24.86%	2,628	2.15%	58,748	48.12%	122,084
Shasta	24,339	31.31%	52,249	67.22%	1,143	1.47%	-27,910	-35.91%	77,731
Sierra	646	33.16%	1,249	64.12%	53	2.72%	-603	-30.96%	1,948
Siskiyou	7,880	37.71%	12,673	60.64%	346	1.66%	-4,793	-22.93%	20,899
Solano	85,096	57.17%	62,301	41.86%	1,440	0.97%	22,795	15.31%	148,837
Sonoma	148,261	67.18%	68,204	30.90%	4,225	1.91%	80,057	36.28%	220,690
Stanislaus	58,829	40.40%	85,407	58.65%	1,388	0.95%	-26,578	-18.25%	145,624
Sutter	9,602	31.85%	20,254	67.19%	289	0.96%	-10,652	-35.34%	30,145
Tehama	7,504	32.01%	15,572	66.42%	368	1.57%	-8,068	-34.41%	23,444
Trinity	2,782	42.71%	3,560	54.66%	171	2.63%	-778	-11.95%	6,513
Tulare	32,494	32.87%	65,399	66.15%	967	0.98%	-32,905	-33.28%	98,860
Tuolumne	10,104	38.51%	15,745	60.02%	386	1.47%	-5,641	-21.51%	26,235
Ventura	148,859	47.53%	160,314	51.19%	4,020	1.28%	-11,455	-3.66%	313,193
Yolo	42,885	59.34%	28,005	38.75%	1,379	1.91%	14,880	20.59%	72,269
Yuba	5,687	31.55%	12,076	67.00%	261	1.45%	-6,389	-35.45%	18,024
Total	6,745,485	54.30%	5,509,826	44.36%	166,548	1.34%	1,235,659	9.94%	12,421,859

Shift by county

Trend by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +12.5−15%
•   Democratic — +10−12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5−10%
•   Democratic — +5−7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5−5%
•   Democratic — +0−2.5%
•   Republican — +0−2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5−5%
•   Republican — +5−7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5−10%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Alpine (largest municipality: Markleeville)
• Mono (largest municipality: Mammoth Lakes)

By congressional district

Kerry won 31 of 53 congressional districts. Bush won 22 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democrats.^[11]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	38%	60%	Mike Thompson
2nd	62%	37%	Wally Herger
3rd	58%	41%	Doug Ose
			Dan Lungren
4th	61%	37%	John Doolittle
5th	38%	61%	Bob Matsui
6th	28%	70%	Lynn Woolsey
7th	32%	67%	George Miller
8th	14%	85%	Nancy Pelosi
9th	13%	86%	Barbara Lee
10th	40%	59%	Ellen Tauscher
11th	54%	45%	Richard Pombo
12th	27%	72%	Tom Lantos
13th	28%	71%	Pete Stark
14th	30%	68%	Anna Eshoo
15th	36%	63%	Mike Honda
16th	36%	63%	Zoe Lofgren
17th	33%	66%	Sam Farr
18th	50%	49%	Dennis Cardoza
19th	61%	38%	George Radanovich
20th	48%	51%	Cal Dooley
			Jim Costa
21st	65%	34%	Devin Nunes
22nd	68%	31%	Bill Thomas
23rd	40%	58%	Lois Capps
24th	56%	43%	Elton Gallegly
25th	59%	40%	Howard McKeon
26th	55%	44%	David Dreier
27th	39%	59%	Brad Sherman
28th	28%	71%	Howard Berman
29th	37%	61%	Adam Schiff
30th	33%	66%	Henry Waxman
31st	22%	77%	Xavier Becerra
32nd	37%	62%	Hilda Solis
33rd	16%	83%	Diane Watson
34th	30%	69%	Lucille Roybal-Allard
35th	20%	79%	Maxine Waters
36th	40%	59%	Jane Harman
37th	25%	74%	Juanita Millender-McDonald
38th	34%	65%	Grace Napolitano
39th	40%	59%	Linda Sánchez
40th	60%	39%	Ed Royce
41st	62%	37%	Jerry Lewis
42nd	62%	37%	Gary Miller
43rd	41%	58%	Joe Baca
44th	59%	40%	Ken Calvert
45th	56%	43%	Mary Bono Mack
46th	57%	42%	Dana Rohrabacher
47th	50%	49%	Loretta Sanchez
48th	58%	40%	Christopher Cox
			John Campbell
49th	63%	36%	Darrell Issa
50th	55%	44%	Brian Bilbray
51st	46%	53%	Bob Filner
52nd	61%	38%	Duncan Hunter
53rd	38%	61%	Susan Davis

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.^[12]

1. Robert H. Manley
2. Barbara Schraeger
3. Paul Johnson
4. Gary Simmons
5. Paul Batterson
6. Diana Madoshi
7. Kyriakos Tsakopoulos
8. Donald Linker
9. Paula Sandusky
10. Adam Woo
11. Chloe Drew
12. Karl Sliferv
13. Gary Prost
14. Joseph Cotchett
15. John Smith
16. George Marcus
17. Mark Hsu
18. Adele Bihn
19. Darrell Darling
20. Amarjit Dhaliwal
21. Rocco Davis
22. Kenneth Costa
23. Barbara Pyle
24. David Johnson
25. Andrew M. Siegel
26. Michael Carpenter
27. Lynda Von Husen
28. Randy Monroe
29. Lane M. Sherman
30. Moreen Blum
31. Yolanda Dyer
32. Paul I. Goldenberg
33. Lenore Wax
34. Mitch O'Farrell
35. Franklin A. Acevedo
36. Gwen Moore
37. Pedro Carillo
38. Karen Walters
39. Ted Lieu
40. Valerie McDonald
41. Marvin
42. Douglas E. Hitchcock
43. Barbara Kerr
44. Salvador Sanchez
45. Joe Baca Jr.
46. Grant Gruber
47. James T. Ewing
48. Louise Giacoppe
49. James G. Bohm
50. Mark Lam
51. Chuck Lower
52. Susan Koehler
53. Mary Salas
54. Andrew Benjamin
55. Margaret Lawrence

References

1. "HISTORICAL VOTER REGISTRATION AND PARTICIPATION IN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTIONS 1910-2018" (PDF). Retrieved June 30, 2021.
2. "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 14, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
3. Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
4. George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
5. John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President
6. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
7. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
8. Loughlin, Sean (September 1, 2004). "Schwarzenegger's star power dazzles delegates". CNN.
9. "President" (PDF). California Secretary of State. February 22, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 21, 2013. Retrieved July 9, 2008.
10. "Report of Registration as of October 18, 2004" (PDF). California Secretary of State. January 7, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 10, 2008. Retrieved January 16, 2013.
11. Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008
12. U. S. Electoral College 2004 Election - Main Page